Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Crackin' a Trackin' Poll

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:31:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:31:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-08T22:33:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情...

2008-12-03T01:51:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,按摩棒,跳蛋,充氣娃娃,情境坊歡愉用品,情趣用品,情人節禮物,情惑用品性易購

免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情色交友,免費AV,色情網站,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人影片,成人網站,A片,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,情色網,日本A片,免費A片下載,性愛

A片,色情,成人,做愛,情色文學,A片下載,色情遊戲,色情影片,色情聊天室,情色電影,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊聊天室,一葉情貼圖片區,情色,情色視訊,免費成人影片,視訊交友,視訊聊天,視訊聊天室,言情小說,愛情小說,AIO,AV片,A漫,av dvd,聊天室,自拍,情色論壇,視訊美女,AV成人網,色情A片,SEX

情趣用品,A片,免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情色交友,色情網站,免費AV,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人網站,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,成人影片,情色網

情趣用品,A片,免費A片,日本A片,A片下載,線上A片,成人電影,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,微風成人區,成人文章,成人影城,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,臺灣情色網,色情,情色電影,色情遊戲,嘟嘟情人色網,麗的色遊戲,情色論壇,色情網站,一葉情貼圖片區,做愛,性愛,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,美女交友,做愛影片

av,情趣用品,a片,成人電影,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人影城,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,情色電影,aio,av女優,AV,免費A片,日本a片,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,聊天室,美女交友,成人光碟

情趣用品.A片,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,情色電影,色情遊戲,色情網站,聊天室,ut聊天室,豆豆聊天室,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,免費A片,日本a片,a片下載,線上a片,av女優,av,成人電影,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人影城,成人網站,自拍,尋夢園聊天室

愛情公寓,情色,舊情人,情色貼圖,情色文學,情色交友,色情聊天室,色情小說,一葉情貼圖片區,情色小說...

2008-12-03T01:50:00.000-05:00

愛情公寓,情色,舊情人,情色貼圖,情色文學,情色交友,色情聊天室,色情小說,一葉情貼圖片區,情色小說,色情,色情遊戲,情色視訊,情色電影,aio交友愛情館,色情a片,一夜情,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊,視訊,視訊美女,美女視訊,視訊交友,視訊聊天,免費視訊聊天室,情人視訊網,影音視訊聊天室,視訊交友90739,成人影片,成人交友,美女交友,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人貼圖,成人電影,A片,豆豆聊天室,聊天室,UT聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,男同志聊天室,UT男同志聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,080聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,6K聊天室,女同志聊天室,小高聊天室,上班族聊天室,080中部人聊天室,同志聊天室,聊天室交友,中部人聊天室,成人聊天室,一夜情聊天室,情色聊天室,寄情築園小遊戲,AV女優,A片下載,免費A片,日本A片,麗的色遊戲,色色網,情色論壇,嘟嘟情人色網,色情網站,成人網站,成人論壇,成人小說,微風成人區,色美媚部落格,正妹牆,正妹百人斬,aio,伊莉,伊莉討論區,成人文章,成人圖片區,免費成人影片,成人遊戲,成人影城,本土自拍,自拍,癡漢俱樂部,AV,做愛,做愛影片,av片,a漫,av dvd,線上a片,日本美女寫真集

Connecting the the day over day polling inferences...

2008-09-06T13:46:00.000-04:00

Connecting the the day over day polling inferences to campaign events is the most fun thing I've seen yet. For those of us who just simply dig the horse race, this type of analysis is what puts fivethirtyeight in a league of its own.

Nate,I love your tracker breakout tables here. Is...

2008-09-06T12:45:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I love your tracker breakout tables here. Is there any way you could post these daily?

On the TV ratings issue: I notice Drudge's headlin...

2008-09-05T20:42:00.000-04:00

On the TV ratings issue: I notice Drudge's headline includes the major networks and news networks, but doesn't include PBS. I'm thinking democrats and progressives are more inclined to watch PBS than conservatives and republicans are. That might account for some of the ratings issues.

Mason - You were courteous...it was jqb who went b...

2008-09-05T19:02:00.000-04:00

Mason -

You were courteous...it was jqb who went ballistic.

Sorry for the mis-attribution.

Respect.

jqb - I was not making up the point...i was using ...

2008-09-05T19:00:00.000-04:00

jqb -

I was not making up the point...i was using illustrative numbers.

I said so.

My point was correct.

Fox is more evenly mixed than MSNBC.

Mason -You got it right MSNBC was ~80% Dems and In...

2008-09-05T18:59:00.000-04:00

Mason -

You got it right

MSNBC was ~80% Dems and Independents.

Fox was less skewed than MSNBC. That was my main point, and it is true.

Relax, I said I was going from memory...sheesh.

Chill out...when i have the data hard I say so.

When not, i admit it but the point is still the same.

Fox gets more Dems and Independents than MSNBC gets Republicans and independents.

Using that data, the claim that Fox is ONLY Republicans would be crazy.

I WAY overestimated Repubs on Fox, by the same amount.

Chill dude...

Who is more independent of party and listed the fo...

2008-09-05T18:49:00.000-04:00

Who is more independent of party and listed the four candidates at the top of the ticket, is there any doubt of the order of finish?

It's fun to watch how the mind of someone like Pete Kent works. Like, stoners must prefer high diving to swimming because they like to get high.

Here's a slightly different poll question: who is more independent of the Republican party, the one that has so totally fucked up the economy?

My guess ... I think ... Don't have the exact numb...

2008-09-05T18:35:00.000-04:00

My guess ... I think ... Don't have the exact numbers...

In other words, you're making shit up. Check http://www.scarborough.com/press_releases/Cable%20FINAL%205.8.07.pdf for one.

I think MSNBC was 80% Democrat.Fox was something l...

2008-09-05T18:34:00.000-04:00

I think MSNBC was 80% Democrat.

Fox was something like 60% R 20% I and 20% D

Not hardly. I can't find it off-hand, but CNN and MSNBC had similar viewerships of about (45/40/15 D/I/R) to one another. Fox had about 30/30/40. Frankly, it says more about the viewers than the networks.

Bugger. I want to invest in Obama stock while it's...

2008-09-05T18:28:00.000-04:00

Bugger. I want to invest in Obama stock while it's nice and low. Why, why didn't I activate my intrade account two weeks ago?!

What idiotic conversation. Seems like two posters ...

2008-09-05T18:26:00.000-04:00

What idiotic conversation. Seems like two posters need to get a room!

Pete Kent's deep grasp of the situation once again impresses.

PK-What idiotic conversation. Seems like two poste...

2008-09-05T18:25:00.000-04:00

PK-
What idiotic conversation. Seems like two posters need to get a room!

Nope. There was just one troublemaker, but he just checked-out. Look at the blogger IDs.

My guess is that MSNBC represents the die hard lef...

2008-09-05T18:24:00.000-04:00

My guess is that MSNBC represents the die hard left who are going to watch both conventions.

I see Fox as choice of the die hard right, but certainly a broader mix of independents and Dems than MSNBC.

There was a survey out not too long ago that showed roughly that.

I think MSNBC was 80% Democrat.

Fox was something like 60% R 20% I and 20% D.

Don't have the exact numbers...

O'Reilly brings a lot of independents and persuadable Dems.

MPM-Well... They are a premium spirits holding com...

2008-09-05T18:23:00.001-04:00

MPM-
Well... They are a premium spirits holding company trying to do political polling. I'm not sure how that transition will work out for them. Perhaps the answer they're after is to the question, "Who drinks more JW Blue?"

What idiotic conversation. Seems like two posters...

2008-09-05T18:23:00.000-04:00

What idiotic conversation. Seems like two posters need to get a room!

You missed the point of my post. McCain made a huge grab for the independents last night and continued with it today.

He has declared himself independent of party. He condemned his own party at its Convention and he continued today blaming BOTH PARTIES for the mess in Washington.

I think that humility and the reality of his outsider status could start to hum with real independents. Many of whom I suspect are to some degree conservative, but would never identify with the Katina Vandenheuvals or Rachel Madows or Keith Olbermanns. At best they are Chris Matthews and Gloria Borger types.

I wonder how they will see this new McCain.

He and his reformer, insurgent Alaskan running mate.

If you polled on the question: Who is more independent of party and listed the four candidates at the top of the ticket, is there any doubt of the order of finish? Or the space between number one and number three?

+++++
Loved seeing the breakdown of the ratings. CBS is skewing Mccain b/c it skews older, supporting the polling. Now we know CNN is just as democratic as Fox is conservative, just has smaller viewership. I guess that's because MSNBC soaks up all the serious left wingers.

I am heading over to the other thread.

That's enough. Fuck it. I'm done with you queefs. ...

2008-09-05T18:20:00.000-04:00

That's enough. Fuck it. I'm done with you queefs. Make fun of me some more now that I'm gone.

Yes, I do hate you. Now fuck off!Sick bird diddy d...

2008-09-05T18:17:00.000-04:00

Yes, I do hate you. Now fuck off!

Sick bird diddy daddy talking to himself. This disruptive piece of shit really needs to be blocked, as we now have to check the profile link every time (unless the post involves any complex thoughts, in which case you can be sure it's not dd).

Using Excel solver to try to backpredict the Hotli...

2008-09-05T18:16:00.001-04:00

Using Excel solver to try to backpredict the Hotline Party ID using the Palin numbers give this rough estimate:

Dem: 40.2%
Rep: 31.7%
Ind: 27.9%

It does not appear as if they apply any weighting, but do a representative sample of RV's

Note, there is a range of viable solutions, but I would put the gap at somewhere in the 8-10% range.

This suggests the same underlying result as Rasmussen, with just a more favorable Party ID for Dems.

8-10% is WAY outside any historical norm.

It is 300% of the disaster in 2006.

5:11 (03441230254568122891)-DID is very treatable....

2008-09-05T18:16:00.000-04:00

5:11 (03441230254568122891)-
DID is very treatable. With medication and psycotherapy, you can live a very normal life. You should see someone about that.

Remember: What they did to you when you were younger is not your fault.

Matthew Hyou wrote:Jews were in the forefront of t...

2008-09-05T18:14:00.000-04:00

Matthew H

you wrote:

Jews were in the forefront of the civil rights actions. They don't want their daughter marrying a schwartzer (or any goyim, for that matter).

That second sentence sounds as though you "borrowed" heavily from a joke in one of Leo Rsoten's books.

BTW, the word goyim is plural. You should have used goy (singular). Although in the Rosten story the punch line was, "I wouldn't let her marry any of you goyim."

in for a penny in for a dollar. The story ws about a Jewsih member of the school board in a southern community. They wre debating the Brown v Board of Ed case, and the Christian members were talking about resistance. The Jew demurred. 'I think we should follow the law." "But would you let your daughter marry a n-----?" "Franklly, I don't think . . ."

For those who may not be conversant with the term, "goy" is the Hebrew for "nation" The Biblical "I shall make of you a great nation" uses the expression "goy gadol" - great nation. It also shows up in "(a)Nation will not lift up sword against (a) nation."

Carried over to Yiddish, the term came to mean "non-Jews" and is in general not a positive word. Given the way the Christian communities in which eastern European Jews lived behaved toward the Jews, that is only to be expected.