Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 6/17

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2009-03-11T05:29:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:47:00.000-05:00

Here and elsewhere I am seeing discussions about t...

2008-06-18T07:25:00.000-04:00

Here and elsewhere I am seeing discussions about the "Obama Bounce." Perhaps I have missed something. "bounce is a term that has been applied post-convention. It makes little sense as a phenomenon "post-mathematical clinching."
Indeed, a web search suggests to me that no one applied the bounce concept to McCain (who actually FELL vis a vis Obama after clinching the nomination).
Is this just partisan gamesplaying?

VitoF,Those "low" numbers for Obama in NM may (thi...

2008-06-18T00:08:00.000-04:00

VitoF,

Those "low" numbers for Obama in NM may (this is pure speculation) be due in part to the fact that
New Mexico's Hispanic population is atypical vs. other parts of the US. It is older and less dominated by recent immigrants, and is culturally very conservative while remaining very pro-Democratic party for traditional patronage and machine politics reasons as much as for policy reasons.

Also, the local economy is dominated by US Govt. spending (especially Dept. of Defense and Dept. of Energy), which tends to create a sympathy for the military which might help McCain. I know quite a few voters in the state who are concerned about what is going to happen with Federal spending in NM now that St. Pete our patron saint of pork-barrel spending is retiring from the Senate. DOE laboratory and Air Force base closings in particular are the third rail of NM politics. Hopefully Tom Udall is giving Obama good advice on this score.

NM should be leaning for Obama, but could turn on how well he gives a speech about overcoming the partisan divide between Red and Green (i.e. which type of chile does he prefer?).

The diplomatic answer is "both", but the better answer is "whatever you've got that's hottest" - just don't cry when you eat it. We don't need another Muskie 1972 moment.

To Gustavo: I don't know anything about the inte...

2008-06-17T23:53:00.000-04:00

To Gustavo:

I don't know anything about the internals of the model for Florida or whether they have changed recently, but...

One explanation for why Obama's poll numbers in Florida diverge from his predicted outcome based on demographics could be that he didn't campaign at all inside the state until a couple weeks ago (whereas McCain campaigned heavily in the leadup to their January 29 primary, and Obama has campaigned in almost every other state in the union). If one believes that the 538 regression represents the full potential of both campaigns representing themselves on equal footing, then it would seem that Obama needs to redouble his efforts in Florida in order to "catch up" on lost campaigning.

Note the similar ~5 pt. deficit between the polls and the regression prediction in Michigan, where he also did not campaign in the primary.

Then again, I could be totally wrong. :)

Help me out here. I'm looking at the FL Poll Detai...

2008-06-17T23:41:00.000-04:00

Help me out here.

I'm looking at the FL Poll Details. Every poll from 3/28 to 5/17 has McCain ahead. The 538 regression has Obama +0.3. Admittedly tiny and meaningless, but how can this happen when Obama is leading in not one single poll? Is there evidence that there has been a move toward Obama from inferences based on demographics?

I don't get it.

I'm not sure if this is the right place to post th...

2008-06-17T23:21:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this, but since there isn't an "open thread", it seems this is as good a place as any: I'm impressed by how well the 538 Regression Model is anticipating changes in the polling recently in most states. However, one pair of states that seems strange to me is Nevada and New Mexico. By most accounts, New Mexico is a toss-up, or even a lean Democratic state this year. On the other hand, Nevada, while certainly competitive, would seem to lean Republican. New Mexico has a much larger Hispanic population, and Democratic candidates have done better there recently, so what is it exactly in the regression model that leads to a relatively solid 8 point Obama victory prediction for Nevada but a squeaker in New Mexico? If anybody has any insight into what I'm missing, feel free to chime in. Thanks and keep up the great work.

Mike H,According to Survey USA's report card for t...

2008-06-17T21:41:00.000-04:00

Mike H,

According to Survey USA's report card for the North Carolina primary PPP was the most accurate by a majority of their measures for determining accuracy:

http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/nc-pollster-report-card-potus-050608.JPG

I made a typo on the dates the Ohio poll was conducted- it was actually June 14th and 15th.

Thanks for your comments,

Tom Jensen
PPP

Mike H in Cali: "Ohio is a close, Republican-leani...

2008-06-17T21:31:00.000-04:00

Mike H in Cali: "Ohio is a close, Republican-leaning state..."

Not sure that's a good description for Ohio. Taking a look at it's congressional delegations and governorship, one would be inclined to describe it as 'Democratic-leaning' currently.

That said, Ohio has voted for the winning candidate in the last 11 presidential elections. That is pretty much the definition of a swing state, i.e., one that always picks the winner or always picks the loser, regardless of party.

The only way in which Ohio could be described as Republican-leaning is that it matched the country's record of selecting mostly Republican presidents over the past 11 years.

So Ohio, like MO, is a swing state. Or a barely leaning-dem swing state, just as MO would be a barely leaning-R swing state.

.

Greg: "I love how Nate conveniently leaves out the...

2008-06-17T21:11:00.000-04:00

Greg: "I love how Nate conveniently leaves out the fact that this PPP Ohio poll sampled Democrats at a nearly 2:1 clip versus Republicans."

That's a possibly correct, albeit debatable, weighting on PPP's part.

Keep in mind that polling shows party identification registering in the low 50's for Dems and high 20's for the GOP.

Which is, in fact, a nearly 2:1 ratio.

PPP is not to fault if that accurately reflects current party identification. You might have to blame the Republicans for that.

.

Thanks all I get it now

2008-06-17T20:50:00.000-04:00

Thanks all I get it now

Looking at the methodology for determining pollste...

2008-06-17T20:39:00.000-04:00

Looking at the methodology for determining pollster accuracy, I was wondering if there is enough data to determine not just the pollster-induced error for each pollster, but the PIE for each pollster with respect to individual states, instead of in aggregate.

The theory at least would be that pollsters' methods can work much better in certain states or regions - thus giving cause to weight some pollsters highly for their polls in some states but not others. For example, the PPP poll that is being questioned above of Ohio is a state which PPP nailed in the primary. Should PPP be given more weight in Ohio, even over 'better' pollsters?

I don't know if such a distinction would be valuable or not - aggregate PIE might be more representative of a pollsters accuracy than individual state PIE regardless, especially if there's less data - but I think it's possible that some pollsters with just 'get' certain states with respect to weighting in a way they don't others.

Tulle, Danny and Anonymous correctly described my ...

2008-06-17T20:36:00.000-04:00

Tulle,

Danny and Anonymous correctly described my point. If Obama were up by 4 nationally, he'd be up by more than that in heavily blue MN (which has gone Dem every election since 1976).

Ohio is a close, Republican-leaning state that is usually not too far from the national average. So if Obama truly leads by 4 nationally, he could not be up by a staggering 11 points in OH, which is more than Kerry won California by in 2004.

Jinx.

2008-06-17T20:24:00.000-04:00

Jinx.

Tulle, I think Mike H believes OH should tend to b...

2008-06-17T20:23:00.000-04:00

Tulle, I think Mike H believes OH should tend to be about where the country is nationally, and that MN should trend more Democratic than the rest of the country.

Tulle-I think Mike's point is that if Obama were u...

2008-06-17T20:21:00.001-04:00

Tulle-
I think Mike's point is that if Obama were up by 11 in a state that's as close as Ohio usually is, we would expect a much larger national lead than 4. Likewise, if he were only up by 1 in the relatively blue MN, we wouldn't expect such consistent 4 point leads in nationwide polls.

Hey, look: green swing state analysis. I'm guessin...

2008-06-17T20:21:00.000-04:00

Hey, look: green swing state analysis. I'm guessing this is so people don't think "Obama's Tipping Point States" and "McCain's Must-Win States?"

I don't buy the 55-30-15 partisan ID in Ohio (D-R-...

2008-06-17T19:37:00.000-04:00

I don't buy the 55-30-15 partisan ID in Ohio (D-R-I). If we re-weight to an imho more realistic distribution of 46-36-18, Obama's up by 2. Which feels about right.

The MN poll is screwy too. I guess they offset to some extent.

Mike H in Cali, I gree both these polls seem suspe...

2008-06-17T19:35:00.000-04:00

Mike H in Cali, I gree both these polls seem suspect, I do not understand your "How could Obama be up 4 points nationwide but ahead by 11 points in OH? Impossible" or "Moreover, how could Obama be up 4 points nationwide but only 1 point ahead in MN?". I am sure I am just missing something. Are you saying he should be ahead by 4 everywhere? Is it also impossible for him to be up by 17 in Washington as SUSA has him. I think I must be missing something about your point. Could you please explain? Thanks...

Would the MN results make sense if we simply swap ...

2008-06-17T19:27:00.000-04:00

Would the MN results make sense if we simply swap the names of the candidates? I have seen stupider errors made.

the PPP poll of OH is just plain absurd.1. How co...

2008-06-17T19:21:00.000-04:00

the PPP poll of OH is just plain absurd.

1. How could Obama be up 4 points nationwide but ahead by 11 points in OH? Impossible.

2. The summary from PPP says: "PPP surveyed 733 likely voters on May 17th and 18th." Say what?

3. RCP lists PPP as a Democratic party-affiliated polling outfit so there is some pro-Dem bias built in.

4. In the primaries, PPP was pretty bad. Even though it is based in Raleigh, PPP was waaaaaay off in predicting the outcome in its home state of NC.

5. The PPP summary says Obama leads by 4 among Ohio whites and has a 75-21 point lead among blacks. That's absurd. In any state where Obama leads among whites, Obama would have 94% of the black vote.

How do some of these pollsters keep getting work? They are guilty of pollster malpractice.

The question is, with how intensive the primary wa...

2008-06-17T19:06:00.000-04:00

The question is, with how intensive the primary was, and how screwed up the country is: WHY ISN'T OBAMA AHEAD BY MORE?!

Ever since Survey USA began doing their VP matchup...

2008-06-17T19:04:00.000-04:00

Ever since Survey USA began doing their VP matchup polls, their results have been bizarre in both directions. The crosstabs for MN make no sense as others have pointed out.

Moreover, how could Obama be up 4 points nationwide but only 1 point ahead in MN?

As for PPP, see my next comment.