Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Nevada

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2010-03-18T12:13:51.569-04:00

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2009-10-03T03:41:36.222-04:00

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梵,

It is interesting that this was posted on October ...

2008-10-31T16:10:53.400-04:00

It is interesting that this was posted on October 30th. Since the 31st is Nevada Day.

Happy Nevada Day to you all.

The Nevada Caucuses were fine on the Democratic si...

2008-10-31T13:39:13.094-04:00

The Nevada Caucuses were fine on the Democratic side; it was the Clark County Convention that had issues.

Oh, and tell Mr. Silver that next time he goes on MSNBC he should try to pronounce Nevada correctly.

Okay, for the record -- and it was hard for me to ...

2008-10-31T13:28:51.737-04:00

Okay, for the record -- and it was hard for me to remember all 42 states that HAVE been passed on our road to 270 -- by my estimates we still have:

Wisconsin
Missouri
Michigan
Washington, D.C.

Then the interesting Senate race in:

Georgia

and the tippy states of

Ohio
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia

And only 4 1/2 days to write 'em...

Gambly and Whorish?fuck sake

2008-10-31T13:06:35.928-04:00

Gambly and Whorish?

fuck sake

Without John McCain, this would be a landslide for...

2008-10-31T11:55:11.386-04:00

Without John McCain, this would be a landslide for Obama. But war heroes are probably more respected in America than any other figures.

I think Obama will win either 51-48 or 52-47. I'm not sure which at the moment.

Technically it was the Clark County Democratic Par...

2008-10-31T11:06:53.108-04:00

Technically it was the Clark County Democratic Party that was unprepared for the Democratic Convention (which I attended and referred to as the Clark County Clusterf*ck). The state convention, run by the Nevada Democratic Party went off with few hitches. Hopefully they have learned from this and do better in 2012.

AP/YAHOOObama 51, McCain 43

2008-10-31T09:06:45.100-04:00

AP/YAHOO

Obama 51, McCain 43

On successive individual days in the R2K poll Obam...

2008-10-31T08:18:11.678-04:00

On successive individual days in the R2K poll Obama was up +5 Tues, +5 Wed and +8 Thurs, with a +6 Mon sample rolling off.

Looks like the 'McCain Surge in Reverse' is working like a dream.

Lawrence Eagleburger, who served as Secretary of S...

2008-10-31T08:15:20.540-04:00

Lawrence Eagleburger, who served as Secretary of State under George H.W. Bush and whose endorsement is often trumpeted by McCain, said "heaven forbid that" Pain becomes President.
Eagleburger explained: "I don't think at the moment she is prepared to take over the reigns of the presidency. I can name for you any number of other vice presidents who were not particularly up to it either. So the question, I think, is can she learn and would she be tough enough under the circumstances if she were asked to become president, heaven forbid that that ever takes place.".

Yes, when Eagleburger endorsed McCain, he didn't realise that he would be so 'mavericky' to choose Palin and make Eagleburger look like a fool.

@sherwickThat would be true if most of us hadn't a...

2008-10-31T08:14:18.190-04:00

@sherwick

That would be true if most of us hadn't already voted. LOL

*fiwil*

The only conclusion I can draw is that McGramps an...

2008-10-31T08:09:34.190-04:00

The only conclusion I can draw is that McGramps and Failin' are screwed.

Still, 4 days to go. Anything can happen, such as aliens landing and brainwashing us all into voting for Gramps.

@rick@psmithThe NM numbers at GMU are only for Ber...

2008-10-31T08:01:37.890-04:00

@rick
@psmith
The NM numbers at GMU are only for Bernalillo County (where Albuquerque is) From the CNN early vote site, there are 335,000 votes statewide, or 44%. That is still significant. They are breaking 53/32/14 D/R/I. I think that finding the PPP already voted percentage is reasonable, and one could draw reasonable conclusions based on that.

kimmy,Absoltely, however I think this will be enou...

2008-10-31T07:49:52.731-04:00

kimmy,

Absoltely, however I think this will be enough of a convincing win to not worry about the odd state and voter fraud.

markymark said ...Just a word of caution, I don't ...

2008-10-31T07:46:13.360-04:00

markymark said ...

Just a word of caution, I don't think cherrypicking is necesarily idiotic. I think it does show that this race is not totally in the bag, that there is work to calcify the win to be done in some states, that ground game and GOTV still matter.

I know We Need to Get Out The Vote and the cherry picking helps to drive up turnout BUT I think the Repubs are looking for a way to explain away a THEFT of a state that ends up being close or tight on election day ...

I DO NOT want them to have the benefit of the doubt ...

Guys Guys Guys ... I DID NOT Fall for the cherry ...

2008-10-31T07:41:15.378-04:00

Guys Guys Guys ... I DID NOT Fall for the cherry picking and Gladly I went looking for more Infor mation and I found THIS ...

Among registered voters, McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 42 percent overall (undecided voters are not included in the percentages). The breakdown by state shows strong support for McCain in Arizona and Texas, while Nevada leans toward Obama, and New Mexico is even. The breakdown by state is:

* Arizona – 51 percent for McCain, 40 percent for Obama
* Texas – 50 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Obama
* Nevada – 48 percent for Obama, 44 percent for McCain
* New Mexico – 46 percent for each

The strength of intent to vote shows a slight advantage for McCain; 89 percent of McCain voters say they would “definitely vote” or “had already voted,” compared to 79 percent of Obama voters.

The Arizona State University-Southwest Poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 22 to Oct. 17 among a random sample of 1,208 adult residents in the Southwest United States (293 in Arizona, 190 in Nevada, 525 in Texas and 200 in New Mexico). The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Just look at those sample sizes for New Mexico and Nevada ...

Less than 200 EACH ... Are they serious ?

And it looks like they are only considering "Registered Voters" and Not "Likely Voters" ...

Anyway I was NOT that concerned BUT I just let out a sigh of minimal relief when I saw the expanded information on the polling ...

saw that ASU poll a few days ago. A couple of thin...

2008-10-31T07:36:21.513-04:00

saw that ASU poll a few days ago. A couple of things:

1) The interviews were done from Sept. 22-Oct. 17 so it's ancient by polling standards.

2) I could not find a breakdown by state and number of respondents anywhere in the .pdf. (The NM 46-46 number was mentioned in the link, but not broken out anywhere in the .pdf. Instead, respondents from all states were lumped together).

Idiotic cherrypicking.

LOL if that's the poll... then EPIC FAIL!

Uh oh. Tightening!"Poll: Dead heats in 2 key swing...

2008-10-31T07:35:58.222-04:00

Uh oh. Tightening!

"Poll: Dead heats in 2 key swing states"

That's the headline on Politico this morning. But when you read the article those two state are MO and NC. Who would have thought that those two states would be KEY swing states... The media is getting desperate for something to hold onto.

mines -- what's mines is also yours

Matt, Just a word of caution, I don't think cherry...

2008-10-31T07:34:46.669-04:00

Matt,

Just a word of caution, I don't think cherrypicking is necesarily idiotic. I think it does show that this race is not totally in the bag, that there is work to calcify the win to be done in some states, that ground game and GOTV still matter.

Now that might not be the point Joe was making, but we all know his political balance, and the way that the GOP may be looking at he polls is saying 'Oh look we might just have a chance still, which isn't necesarily a bad thing for them to be thinking.

Remember, when they say that only one poll really matters in the end, they ARE right.

too many polls, the polling market is out of contr...

2008-10-31T07:31:10.795-04:00

too many polls, the polling market is out of control, not only Wall Street needs to be regulated...

I hope an Obama Presidency will bring some order into this mess, with Nate's help of course!

WV: me man Sizzla would say I like me paapaz "extratin"

Are you serious about Morning Joe? Man, they are ...

2008-10-31T07:30:09.060-04:00

Are you serious about Morning Joe? Man, they are getting desperate. I saw that ASU poll a few days ago. A couple of things:

1) The interviews were done from Sept. 22-Oct. 17 so it's ancient by polling standards.

2) I could not find a breakdown by state and number of respondents anywhere in the .pdf. (The NM 46-46 number was mentioned in the link, but not broken out anywhere in the .pdf. Instead, respondents from all states were lumped together).

Idiotic cherrypicking.

@kimmy --You can't blame him for cherry picking re...

2008-10-31T07:29:48.704-04:00

@kimmy --

You can't blame him for cherry picking results, even if they are serious outliers. Hell, I keep talking about that Pew poll from a couple of days ago. It's just human nature.

intire -- the intire Morning Joe staff is clinging to a fantasy.

Not just "shocking", clearly wrong.The only poll t...

2008-10-31T07:25:03.442-04:00

Not just "shocking", clearly wrong.

The only poll that has shown McCain within the margin of error in NM for the last month is Zogby Interactive.

Enough said.

Kimmy, PPP re;eased a New Mexico poll today with O...

2008-10-31T07:23:33.982-04:00

Kimmy,

PPP re;eased a New Mexico poll today with Obama up 17 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NewMexico_1031582.pdf

Breathe. New Mexico is going blue.