Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: In Declining Approval Ratings, Lessons for Obama

A measly 5% decline, in mid-winter, coming off the...

2009-02-09T19:07:00.000-05:00

A measly 5% decline, in mid-winter, coming off the inauguration? I don't see it, Nate. I think this is a blip from the fraction of the population that expected a pony to show up in the mail from the Federal Government, or something like that, not a massive wave of disillusionment.

The bottom line here is that Obama's polling 20% higher approval than he won at the polls in November (65% / 55%). Compare that to the previous incumbent, whose approval rating faltered from the getgo and had a continuous downdrop except when aided by Terror Alerts (tm).

Dude, spring training's here! Back to your main gig, fast.

Komi-good points. One line from Obama's weekly add...

2009-02-09T05:59:00.000-05:00

Komi-

good points. One line from Obama's weekly address that really stands out is
"Legislation of such magnitude deserves the scrutiny that it's received over the last month, and it will receive more in the days to come."

Due diligence is definitely something we have been missing in the Federal Government of the last eight years. He is right to encourage scrutiny, and he give a nod to the possibility that some fo the tax cuts will be replaced with education or energy spending.

I find it absolutely amazing that so many left-win...

2009-02-08T23:45:00.000-05:00

I find it absolutely amazing that so many left-wing bloggers and commenters are so ready to assume that Obama and his team embraced the rhetoric of bipartisanship out of political naivete. Obama's a smart guy; it doesn't seem terribly likely to me that he went into this fray believing that folks like Boehner and McConnell wouldn't be the intransigent dogmatists that they are.

What seems far more likely to me is that this is all political kabuki. Obama and his team have read the American public's sentiment correctly: they want ideas, not ideological cant. They're going to be far more willing to forgive a new strategy that doesn't succeed on all fronts, than they are a slew of dogmatic intransigence based on ideas about tax cuts that have been proven wrong for the last eight years. I think that looking at this stimulus fight's short-term effects on Obama's approval ratings will ultimately be less-telling than its long-term effects on GOP lawmakers' approval ratings.

In short, Obama is being very smart by extending his hand and letting the GOP Congressmen spit in it in front of the rest of the nation. The public will ultimately see him as doing his due diligence. They won't be as charitable to the conservative obstructionists. And when they suffer even more electoral defeats in 2010, it will be even easier to push through a truly progressive agenda.

That's my read on it, anyway.

Walker - Some of what you propose would probably h...

2009-02-08T19:37:00.000-05:00

Walker -

Some of what you propose would probably help, but you don't seem to realize that the Republicans, as they currently operate, are against everything reasonable that you suggest.

"In a nutshell, aid to families struggling to preserve their homes,"

This would help, although it ignores those who have already lost homes or were never able to buy one. Who supports doing this, Republicans or Democrats?

"increased jobless benefits,"

You'll be sent flying out of the next RNC convention with a boot mark on your a$$ if you say that where they can hear you. Of course this is necessary. Who supports it? Democrats or Republicans? Please answer with numbers, not isolated Republican examples.

"a corporate tax cut from 35% to 25%,"

Unlikely to make much difference; there is little or no evidence that income tax on profitable corporations is a problem. Money-losing companies pay no corporate tax, so this doesn't help them at all. Your first Republican suggestion, and it's the poorest on the list so far.

"a stringent documentation check system kicked into high gear to protect American workers,"

This will be worthless if it isn't coupled to a higher minimum wage.

"zero tolerance for any pork in the plan,"

This is meaningless. "Zero tolerance" and "pork" are just vague, ill-defined propaganda slogans. Please be specific.

"expanded free trade negotiation and protection of existing agreements,"

Unlike some other "liberals", I have no problem with this, but we already have very low barriers to most trade, and are in a recession anyway. So this can't be a big answer.

"and, lastly, to encourage investment, a capital gains tax cut."

Bull, nobody fails to make investments because they're afraid of the capital gains tax. It's already very low.

So - some good ideas, all Democrat, and some bad ideas, all Republican.

Since Republicans are very intolerant of deviation from the ideology these days, you're closer to being a Democrat.

Catfish, why would you say such ridiculous things ...

2009-02-08T18:10:00.000-05:00

Catfish, why would you say such ridiculous things about the efficacy of tax cuts? There's no evidence to support such silly assertions.

Ah yes, Walker, watching the Faux News propaganda....

2009-02-08T17:35:00.000-05:00

Ah yes, Walker, watching the Faux News propaganda.

Remember, Rupert Murdoch, CEO of News Corp (the parent company of Faux News), stated on February 5 that "We have never been a company that tolerates facts."

Mike in Maryland...your new moniker is "Sandy in D...

2009-02-08T16:56:00.000-05:00

Mike in Maryland...your new moniker is "Sandy in Des Moines".

Do you try to be a snarky, little partisan hack or does it come naturally? Do you take afternoon tea with Paul Begala whilst Erasure music tumbles out of discretely hidden speakers?

Dude, you need a vacation, a girlfriend, maybe a handful of Prozac...

Meanwhile I repose majestic and respendent atop my leather coach, eating greasy lambshanks, watching the latest feeds from "Papa O'Reilly" on Foxnews...

Have I confirmed your suspicians?

Chill out. Go see a movie, or something...

You will need a reservior of contentment and peace when Obama is languising around 40-45% approval ratings in a few months..

Walker, I'll say this again...Tax cuts don't, have...

2009-02-08T16:46:00.000-05:00

Walker, I'll say this again...Tax cuts don't, haven't, and won't create jobs or stimulate the economy.

Walker said...Hey, I will be the first to criticis...

2009-02-08T16:45:00.000-05:00

Walker said...
Hey, I will be the first to criticise Bush's spending politicies.

First, Walker - learn to spell. For one thing, it's 'criticize'. For another, it's 'policies'.

Second - What was your opinion of the little shrub tax cuts? Were they correct? Did they go to the right segments of the population?

What was your opinion of going into Eye-rak? Did it save us from seeing one of those 'mush roooom clouds'? Did it help decrease the influence of al-Qaida, especially in the Islamic world?

What was your opinion of No Child Left Behind? Did the little shrub administration provide enough funding to the states for the program that was forced on the states?

Do you think global climate change is a bunch of 'hooey' and 'clap-trap' made up by 'leftists', Walker? Do you believe in [so-called] Creationism (ooooops, I guess the Reich-wing term now is 'Intelligent Design' - my bad < snark >)?

In other words, Walker, most of your responses to the above will determine if you are a Troglodyte or a human being. My suspicions are that you are a Troglodyte.

newview,You speak of hunting the "high on the hog"...

2009-02-08T16:34:00.000-05:00

newview,

You speak of hunting the "high on the hog" pork.

Specifically, what 'pork' do you see in the stimulus? If you can't specify it, then it must not exist.

The difference between Democrats and GOOPers is that Democrats CAN specifically name policies that they disagree with, policies that they've studied and thought out. GOOPers, on the other hand, get their 'marching orders' from people like Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Lielly and Faux News, with the 'talking points' but no specifics.

Pork? What is the pork in the stimulus package?

If you can't name anything, then you are nothing but a moronic mouthpiece for the lunatic fringe of the GOOPer party, one who isn't capable of thinking for themself. God gave you brain cells to use to think for yourself, not parrot the clap-trap of the lunatic talking heads of the fringe, reactionary right-wing.

Hey, I will be the first to criticise Bush's spend...

2009-02-08T16:33:00.000-05:00

Hey, I will be the first to criticise Bush's spending politicies. They were, largely, horrible.

We as a nation have lived too long on the hog, way beyond our means, for too long, and we are only now starting to see the results of what will be a very painful period...way too much of our economy is over-leveraged and are debt is killing us. We should pray that China doesn't call in their chips.

What would I do? In a nutshell, aid to families struggling to preserve their homes, increased jobless benefits, a corporate tax cut from 35% to 25%, a stringent documentation check system kicked into high gear to protect American workers, zero tolerance for any pork in the plan, expanded free trade negotiation and protection of existing agreements, and, lastly, to encourage investment, a capital gains tax cut.

You guys can sniff that tax cuts are a typical Republican rallying cry, but tax policy is the second most effective tool in a nation's economic arsenal, the first being monetary policy.

@ Mike in MarylandMike,you're wasting your time co...

2009-02-08T16:31:00.000-05:00

@ Mike in Maryland

Mike,you're wasting your time communicating with the brain-dead Fred.It is he who wrote the infamous "it's not the prosecutor's job" post.

Walker said...As PeixeGato said, a bunch of male b...

2009-02-08T16:25:00.000-05:00

Walker said...

As PeixeGato said, a bunch of male bovine droppings.

What do you suggest, Walker? Specifics, please.

Otherwise, STFU.

Oh, and just so you know, 52% of Americans support...

2009-02-08T16:23:00.000-05:00

Oh, and just so you know, 52% of Americans support the Stimulus Bill. So a majority of the public actually IS behind what you call an attack on our nation's fiscal health.

Its too bad you weren't as vocal from 2001-2008, when GW and those repubs that you laud for "standing firm right now" really put a hurtin' on our fiscal health.

Walker, you still have yet to state what it is you...

2009-02-08T16:21:00.000-05:00

Walker, you still have yet to state what it is you would do instead. But don't worry, I'm not really expecting you to.

Hey, I am certainly for helping people, but I do n...

2009-02-08T16:16:00.000-05:00

Hey, I am certainly for helping people, but I do not think that adding mountains of government debt and provoking inflation are the ways to do it.

Much of this plan is typical, pocky-barrel crap written by Reid and Pelosi, items added specifically for the benefit of congressional Dems.

Listen, the Japanese passed a very similar peice of stimulus in the mid 90's when they encountered a joint banking/credit crisis. Massive bail-outs and odd, porky spending for highly-connected LDP legislatures. It was rammed down the throat of the Diet. Sound familiar?

The end result? A greatly prolonged recession...

I do not think that the Dem leaders have a monopoly on compassion and concenr for those strugging right now.

Repeblicans are standing firm right now and will be in a position to hang this bill around Reid/Pelosi/Obama's colelctive necks in 2010 and reap rewards for doing so... The public is NOT behind this attack on our nation's fiscal health...

Seems to me that the real problem is the gutless t...

2009-02-08T16:10:00.000-05:00

Seems to me that the real problem is the gutless tit-for-tat actions on both sides of the aisle. Suring the W years, Dems used every parliamentary move and threat thereof to ge their way on numerous nominations, pushed for investigations of political appointments that didn't reflect their viewpoints, e.g. the DOJ attorney firings and staff appointments, and in gereal adopted a "wait the b*****ds out" policy. When the Dems came into power, the "progressive" agenda suddenly vanished in a haze of politcal manuvering and hunting the "high on the hog" pork. Now the Repubs have adopted the Dem playbook of '01 through '07. What a big surprise. The thing is this, absolutely no elected official in DC appears to be genuinely interested in a reasoned, informed debate on what may be best for the country. It's all about "what can I get for my district in this bill?" Too much posturing, too much judging on politcal litmus tests, too much greed, too much of innate corruption that seems to follow political power. That said, please remember that the current administration is incomplete and has only been in office two weeks.

fred said...Nothing at all except that "Krugman is...

2009-02-08T16:07:00.000-05:00

fred said...

Nothing at all except that "Krugman is bad. Krugman is bad."

What do YOU propose fred? More tax cuts? The same formula that got us here in this economic mess we now find ourselves in?

As to the state governments finding themselves in a fiscal problem - don't you think that the national economic mess caused by little shrub might be a big cause of the states' problems? Fewer people working means less taxes they pay, which means less money to the state, at the same time the states are needing to spend MORE money on unemployment benefits because fewer people are working; the states are spending more money on MediCare and MediAid because fewer people are working; the states are spending more money on welfare and other aid to people who are not able to find a job, who wouldn't need the aid if they were working and paying taxes?

fred can bend over and stuff his head where the sun don't shine, if you ask me. On second thought, that's probably what he did when he wrote the rant against Krugman.

Walker,Nobody can guarantee that ANY bill, regardl...

2009-02-08T16:02:00.000-05:00

Walker,

Nobody can guarantee that ANY bill, regardless of how it is written and what is in it, will work. Furthermore, to claim that people should oppose a bill because it is not perfect implies that you would never support any bill at all, because the "perfect bill" does not exist.

Once again, we have another repug who jumps in and claims the bill is "bloated" with a "wish list of leftist clap-trap", but fails to provide any examples of what he/she believes is such "clap-trap". I guess when you are simply shouting from the sidelines (like most repubs in Congress right now), you don't need any specifics.

The repubs that you refer to as "smart" have done nothing but scream, complain, whine, and grand stand. The only "alternative" they have come up with is nothing more than the tired old "tax cuts are the path to economic recovery" which have failed to work in nearly 30 years of attempts.

And yes, WE MUST, RIGHT NOW, pass a stimulus package that will create jobs and jump start this economy. Because, while you may be fat and happy right now, with the option of "waiting it out", there are tens of millions of Americans who do not have such a luxury.

I like how the congressional Democrats are screami...

2009-02-08T15:51:00.000-05:00

I like how the congressional Democrats are screaming, hysterically, that WE MUST, RIGHT NOW pass a $1 trillion dollar stimulus than that 1) might not work, and 2) is not perfect.

There is truly very little stimulus in this plan and instead it is a bloated, wish list of leftist clap-trap.

The public is starting to take notice too. Just 51% of unaffiliated voters saying that they doubt it will work.

Smart Republican are standing firm against it.

Bravo.

In 2010, when inflation is in double-digits and unemployment is worse, they will scoop up 30+ seats in the House, even reinstating a bit of vitality in even the NE with wins in New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts.

Interesting article (if they still call them artic...

2009-02-08T15:44:00.000-05:00

Interesting article (if they still call them articles) by Chuck Todd.

I'm glad to see that Pres Obama is finally beginning to remember the strategy that got him into the White House to begin with. Hopefully he will get back to this going forward and he'll be able to steamroll any repubs whose goal is nothing more than to simply stop anything and everything that anyone with a D behind their name wants to do for the country.

Nate, think about this. All politicans in this mom...

2009-02-08T15:30:00.000-05:00

Nate, think about this. All politicans in this moment have a bad reputation. And republicans more than democrats, see the Congress.
So more than 60% of approval rating in this context is not bad.

I think the fact is that what the Republicans are ...

2009-02-08T15:22:00.000-05:00

I think the fact is that what the Republicans are about is trying to wear down some of the gloss of Obama straight away. They did exactly the same with Clinton, the only difference is that this time the GOP are playing with more serious chips.

Look noone, noone, knows what affect the stimulus will have. Republicans tearing down no just as little as Democrats building it up. But its what there is. Its going to pass, its going to happen. Any Republican tearing it down now is doing that for political reasons. They have no ideas if a huge tax cut would be as or more effective. My guess is that history shows that a huge tax cut is never helpful. Clinton may not have left the economy as buoyant as it seemed, but Bush's tax cuts are,in my view, one of the biggest reasons we are in the current mess, especially given the expense of the Iraq war.

The Republicans are terrified of this stimulus bil...

2009-02-08T15:08:00.000-05:00

The Republicans are terrified of this stimulus bill for one simple reason.

They secretly fear it will have some beneficial effects.

It probably will. It's a timid start, but it's a step in the right direction.

The right wing ideology of inadequate revenue, regressive taxation, destruction/prevention of beneficial government spending, and massively useless military spending, is a straightforward recipe for disaster. And disaster is what it produced.

Childish repetition of simplistic slogans about "lower taxes" (lower than what; lower for who?), "less regulations" (which regulations? Why were they there in the first place?), and infantile labeling of almost everything as "socialist", won't help any more.

Right wingers live in desperate fear that someone will "look over there" and see that things are working much better in every other developed economy.

And you're right - they will.

The first steps of the Obama administration are small snowballs, but they are about to roll down a very long hill.

Your day is over wingnuts. And the funny thing is, most of you will be major beneficiaries of your own defeat. But you won't see it that way.

Glad to see the negative politics of the Rethugs a...

2009-02-08T14:18:00.000-05:00

Glad to see the negative politics of the Rethugs are back in full swing. Offer nothing but that which destroys and then complain about it like cry babies. Reminds me of when they lost those seats and said that community organizes (like ACORN) stole the election. LOL.

Obama needs to speak in plain and simple terms that the Repubes got what they wanted--a shitload of tax cuts for individuals and small businesses.

Spending on what America needs--roads, electric grids, schools, energy conservation, etc.--creates jobs in the private sector.

The economy is flatlining and this is the crash cart to revive it until the private sector can sustain it. The jobs created will last due to the reviving of the economy. The republicans know that, and that is why they don't want the money in the economy, because it will work.

Talk to plain old Americans Obama and not the stupid republicans that dont want it to work and are not thinking about anything other that stopping you. Dont spend your capital on them.

In the end the economy will revive and the republicans will have side with obstructionism, and they will lose seats in 2010, but Obama man dont try and help them out.