Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Pennsylvania

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2009-10-02T07:52:22.116-04:00

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2009-04-06T13:26:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:59:00.000-05:00

I believe MurthaIt's 8 PM on November 3, 2008. I ...

2008-11-03T20:30:00.000-05:00

I believe Murtha

It's 8 PM on November 3, 2008. I just finished making phone calls to PA. I found lots of support for BO, lots of terse "won't answers" that are probably McCain supporters, and a few friendly "won't answers," that are probably Obama supporters who value their privacy.

Somewhere in the middle of over 100 phone calls, I got that one disturbing, angry "We don't vote for n------s" followed by the phone being slammed down.

You know it's out there, but it's a shock to actually hear it. Canvassing for Kerry in NH, I met with some in-person anger that was hard to understand, but easier to shake off. The racist anger continues to make me shiver.

I know that when I was a kid, about 35-40 years ago, my neighbors probably would have said the same kind of thing. My home town is now much more diverse, and I don't think I'd ever hear anything like this now. Has my state and home town grown up since then? Have we become a better world? Can I take comfort in the shock by concluding that this attitude's ability to disturb me means it is also uncommon?

I hope so.

Time to spread the love, people. Time to be the nation we can be.

From a fellow Obama-ite on the ground in Scranton...

2008-11-02T21:37:00.000-05:00

From a fellow Obama-ite on the ground in Scranton. I might repost closer to the top tomorrow so you can see it. Its tense in PA folks!
-------------------------------------
Situation here is incredibly intense, with PA Senator Casey addressing a crowd on one side of town and McCain himself on the other.

Mason-Dixon is basically the bizarro Quinnipiac. ...

2008-11-02T20:34:00.000-05:00

Mason-Dixon is basically the bizarro Quinnipiac. They both seem to be competent and don't have wild variance but one leans heavily Obama and one leans heavily McCain.

I am a Marylander who volunteered in PA's 7th dist...

2008-11-02T19:50:00.000-05:00

I am a Marylander who volunteered in PA's 7th district yesterday. They had at least seven official offices set up, with several satellite offices targeting important turfs. They were splitting volunteers by which state they had come from (PA, NY, MD, DE, or other) and sending them to whichever satellite office needed them the most... they were easily hitting their third-tier turf lists yesterday: having already knocked or done lit drops at every registered Democrat in the turf, they were targeting likely Republican voters. While I was out knocking on doors, I had my turf to myself, but on the drive back to where I was staying, I saw three pairs of Obama volunteers out and about.

I didn't see a single McCain office or volunteer. If his campaign thinks a TV ad is going to be able to counter this surge of enthusiasm, he's crazy.

I live in south central PA (Harrisburg/Carlisle/Ge...

2008-11-02T18:33:00.000-05:00

I live in south central PA (Harrisburg/Carlisle/Gettysburg area) solid rethugs. As a Dem I have never ever got a call from the rethugs because they know they never ever need a Dem vote- they outnumber us 2 to 1. Guess what happened today? I got 2 robocalls from the McSame campaign-they are down and soon to be OUT in PA. Last minute fearmongering robocalls will not turn the tide. Obama Biden will win PA!

"Jack Murtha, who represents the most hilariously-...

2008-11-02T18:06:00.000-05:00

"Jack Murtha, who represents the most hilariously-shaped, gerrymandered district in America in southwest PA"

I haven't read through all 190+ to see if anyone else has made this point, but IL 4 begs to differ.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=IL&district=4

Almost live from Cheltenham, PA, in Montgomery Cou...

2008-11-02T14:31:00.000-05:00

Almost live from Cheltenham, PA, in Montgomery County along the Philadelphia border.

Picked up my Democratic poll watching credentials yesterday, just got back from placing door hangers in my precinct today.

If you are an Obama supporter in PA who is worried, get yourself out to the nearest Obama GOTV staging location, and get a walk list or phone list.

For those still worried about PA, the Republicans would have to suppress turnout in the Philadelphia area to have a realistic chance to win the state. The Philadelphia area Democratic voter protection operation is prepared.

wv: systroo. You must believe me, what I said above, systroo.

----It cracks me up to no end to read these breath...

2008-11-02T14:05:00.000-05:00

----
It cracks me up to no end to read these breathless accounts by Obama supporters who are panicking over Pennsylvania.
----

It is simple to see why. After all last two elections were very close and it can be fairly argued that the elections were stolen. Bush seemed to outperform his OH exit poll numbers ... so why can't that happen in PA ?

In anycase as so many have said so many times, this election is difficult to predict because of so many reasons which make this election historical in so many ways
- President's approval ratings are at a historical low
- We have had an unprecidented financial meltdown and partial nationalisation of the biggest banks
- First AA candidate
- First woman for VP on the R side (who is actually popular with the creationist base)

and many more that can be added.

Barack will be in South Philly tomorrow morning. ...

2008-11-02T13:38:00.000-05:00

Barack will be in South Philly tomorrow morning. Whether this is concern about the state or support for the base, there it is. He will also be in Virginia tomorrow too.

So that means, if you live in this state, get out and vote early on election day.

The MSNBC Mason-Dixon poll from today shows exactl...

2008-11-02T13:28:00.000-05:00

The MSNBC Mason-Dixon poll from today shows exactly the same numbers and same spread from the last Mason-Dixon. MD has been kinder to McCain all along, but that doesn't make the numbers holy.

First, Rendell has gone one a week and a half long...

2008-11-02T13:19:00.000-05:00

First, Rendell has gone one a week and a half long road trip all around PA on behalf of Obama starting a week ago Friday (50 or so stops). He has actually done quite a bit.

Now I agree we should not consider PA in the bag. Most connected Dems in PA do not consider PA a lock for Obama.

McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama wins the election, loosing PA would be a huge hit to the Democratic party. Eitherway, loosing PA will greatly reduce Obama's chances of winning the election.

McCain has been focusing on PA much more than Obama in the last two weeks. Recently the Obama campaign has announced that they will be spending time and money in several new states that have always gone Republican, including Arizona. I think this is a mistake. It spreads the campaign too thin, takes the focus from the important states like PA, and we have zero chance of winning these states.

We can not loose PA just because we want to show off by campaigning in Arizona.

Let's get serious and leave Arizona alone!!!!

Please come back to PA!!!!

Buckeye - There is always reason to panic in Penns...

2008-11-02T13:14:00.001-05:00

Buckeye -

There is always reason to panic in Pennsylvania. Luckily, with a Democratic Governor (who, by the way, has done as little as possible to actively support an Obama presidency), shenanigans will not be as prevalent as OH 4 years ago. Nonetheless, this is a state of a large number of older voters, a large number of Hillary supporters who are still bitter, and a large number of racist voters.

Given those three things, there is cause for concern.

Moreover, whenever your margin of victory depends on college age students, voters that traditionally poll well but don't show up, well, you can understand why people are nervous.

Statistically, however, things look good - while there is tightening, there is no national trend that appears to drive the race closer.

The ones doing the most hand ringing will be the o...

2008-11-02T13:14:00.000-05:00

The ones doing the most hand ringing will be the ones after the election saying they always knew McCain would win Montana, North Dakota and Georgia :)

It cracks me up to no end to read these breathless...

2008-11-02T13:08:00.000-05:00

It cracks me up to no end to read these breathless accounts by Obama supporters who are panicking over Pennsylvania. It's like no amount of quantitative explanation and assurance ever seems to work - unless Obama is up by double digits, there's always something to panic about.

-----------------------
the ones doing the most hand ringing will be the ones after the election saying they always knew Obama would win PA.

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Outpace McCainReg...

2008-11-02T13:07:00.000-05:00

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Outpace McCain

Registered Voters
-----------------
Obama - 52
McCain - 41

Traditional LV's
-----------------
Obama - 51
McCain - 43

Expanded LV's
-----------------
Obama - 52
McCain - 43

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111664/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Outpace-McCain.aspx

If Barack picks up VA and/or CO, then PA will be t...

2008-11-02T13:05:00.000-05:00

If Barack picks up VA and/or CO, then PA will be the site of the Battle of Obamageddon.

SNL was hilarious last night with Ben Affleck doing a great impersonation of the unhinged Keith Olbermann.

I'm pretty sure that IF Obama's internals showed P...

2008-11-02T13:04:00.000-05:00

I'm pretty sure that IF Obama's internals showed PA being vulnerable in combo with any other state internals that would cost him the election, he'd be in PA and not Ohio.

Mason/Dixon is sort of right leaning in its polling.

It's the ONLY poll showing a statistical "dead heat."

They want to make news by turning this into a poll that will propel people to believe it will be extremely extremely tight.

I don't buy it.

Kerry was not an enthusiastic candidate and somehow STILL won the state by 2 or 3 points.

SUSA has O +7 today in PA. MD isn't the only poll ...

2008-11-02T13:02:00.000-05:00

SUSA has O +7 today in PA.

MD isn't the only poll out there. And remember: Kerry won PA by +2, despite a huge push, and his wife being part of the Heinz family. PA is never a done deal, and if there were any real tightening, you can bet Obama would be back in there, esp. since he's going to be in VA on Monday, anyway.

Nice to hear RCP finally calling the election for ...

2008-11-02T12:45:00.000-05:00

Nice to hear RCP finally calling the election for Obama. That's what I wanted to hear.

53 hours, 15 minutes until first polls close.

58 hours until winner declared (estimate).

Wright is so old news. Thanks Hillary.

2008-11-02T12:41:00.000-05:00

Wright is so old news. Thanks Hillary.

PA GOP hits Obama on Wright

2008-11-02T12:34:00.001-05:00

PA GOP hits Obama on Wright