Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama'...

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2009-10-09T03:53:43.486-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:37:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:36:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T00:11:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T00:04:00.000-05:00

Nate,Have you considered the relationship between ...

2008-06-04T10:54:00.000-04:00

Nate,

Have you considered the relationship between the size of the state and the impact of campaign stops?

Say that for every small town Bill Clinton visits, he gets another 400 voters. If he visits 25 small towns, that's a swing of 10,000 voters. In SD, it's a 20 point swing in the result. In North Caronlina, it's less than a 2-point swing.

Look people. There was a dearth of info in MT and...

2008-06-04T05:29:00.000-04:00

Look people. There was a dearth of info in MT and SD ... exactly one small poll between the two states. Nobody cared. The prices on Intrade were all over the place. Clinton put her last quarter in the slot in SD while Obama turned his guns on McCain. Give the guy a break.

This time you UNDERESTIMATED the turnout in MT and...

2008-06-04T01:46:00.000-04:00

This time you UNDERESTIMATED the turnout in MT and SD by about 40%...

Nate wrote: "I don't really feel badly at all abo...

2008-06-04T01:10:00.000-04:00

Nate wrote: "I don't really feel badly at all about our projection in South Dakota. There were versions of the model that had Obama winning by 10 or 11 points, and there were versions that had Clinton winning by 7 or 8 points."

I don't think Nate should feel badly either. His model is really interesting and it is fun to see what it predicts (and it has had some unambigious great successes). Still, I do think that the model did badly in SD tonight (which is different from saying that Nate should feel badly). A couple things: (a) it sounds like the model had a 20 pt margin of error depending on slight adjustments; that is way too much flexibility to be happy with the model; and (b) Clinton's margin of victory (10 pts.) was beyond even the most pro-Clinton version of the model. That seems problematic.

Finally, Nate's note suggests that the model can kind of serve as a reality check for the polls. But is that how it has worked so far? That is, when the model and polls are both off, does the average of the two of them come close to the real result?

I think CNN's coverage was quite excellent, especi...

2008-06-04T00:54:00.000-04:00

I think CNN's coverage was quite excellent, especially David Gergen's insightful commentary. The coverage raised all of the right issues about Clinton's speech, its contrast with Obamas, and the various issues surrounding Clinton as a possible VP. I hope to hell that Obama gives Gergan a central advisory role in his administration (assuming Obama wins).

Holy moly! That Obama map graphic is quite telling...

2008-06-04T00:50:00.000-04:00

Holy moly! That Obama map graphic is quite telling. Look at that huge dark swath from the great lakes to the Mississippi. Barack's got his work cut out for him. That's an awful lot of bitter gun-toting whites to win over.

I agree with you Poblano on CNN's coverage. I'm a...

2008-06-04T00:47:00.000-04:00

I agree with you Poblano on CNN's coverage. I'm an Obama supporter and it was outrageously slanted. Candidates don't concede the day of, and I'm pretty sure they never have. It shows the power of expectations. They thought it would be a concession, and when they didn't get it they were outraged. They should get their journalist cards removed and just focus on the three speeches. Obama's and Clinton's were great, McCain's was a dud.

WL, you contradict yourself. First you complain o...

2008-06-04T00:11:00.000-04:00

WL, you contradict yourself. First you complain of site bias and second you point to the number LISTED ON THE SITE to suggest Obama does not have an easy path to the nomination.

From Anon-MI:Last anon: Good point about the exit ...

2008-06-04T00:06:00.000-04:00

From Anon-MI:

Last anon: Good point about the exit polls. Religious affiliation and religiosity may well matter not just in the context of the primaries but also in the general election, in shaping the saliency of the various potentially mobilizing issues. Right to life is just one of them.

WI: Most of the commentators here may be pro-Obama but that doesn't make the data analysis or the site pro-Obama. Everyone is free to criticize the analysis by the blogmaster, including that it may be slanted (though I don't think so). In an interview published on Progress Illinois a couple of days ago, Nate expressed an interest in drawing people to this site from across the political spectrum.

Both are true - SD is considerably more favorable ...

2008-06-04T00:05:00.000-04:00

Both are true - SD is considerably more favorable ground for Clinton and she got a boost from campaigning more there.

WL, this site is so pro-Obama that for weeks it has had Clinton with a 10-15% better chance of winning the GE.

anonymous :13 I figured it out: those must have be...

2008-06-04T00:03:00.000-04:00

anonymous :13

I figured it out: those must have been the absentee ballots for the county. There was a huge push by Obama supporters to have UM students fill out absentee ballots before they left for the summer. That would explain the greater than 9:1 split, and explain why that count was in so early.

Could this site be any more pro-Obama? If you are ...

2008-06-04T00:00:00.000-04:00

Could this site be any more pro-Obama? If you are going to run a site running electoral college projections from poll numbers, at least try to be unbiased.

Don't see why everyone thinks Obama has an easy path to the White House. Don't the polling numbers on the right say otherwise?

In the Exit Poll question "How often do you attend...

2008-06-03T23:58:00.000-04:00

In the Exit Poll question "How often do you attend religious services?", in Montana 59% of the voters said a few times a year or less often, while in South Dakota only 39% said that. That's a large demographic difference.

It goes some part of the way to help explain the substantial difference in votes. Poblano says "The strongly divergent results in two relatively similar states are a good reminder of how much time spent on the ground can matter." But I think the strongly divergent results strongly suggest these two states are relatively different from one another.

Howard Fineman reports that his sources say Clinto...

2008-06-03T23:57:00.000-04:00

Howard Fineman reports that his sources say Clinton doesn't want VP. Yet she's pushing for it anyway. Like I said, to further alienate her base from Obama when he picks someone else.

SD is down to 55-45 now. The true margin may be cl...

2008-06-03T23:44:00.000-04:00

SD is down to 55-45 now. The true margin may be closer to 11 than 10, but it's basically a tie between ARG and Nate. Only people who don't understand statistics will say ARG did better because they "picked the winner."

There goes Pat Buchanan again saying Obama was "clobbered" these last few months. Losing by 4% or so is "clobbered" when you're on Buchanan's enemies list. Rachel Maddow rolled over per usual. All she has to do is look at the frakkin calendar to see it's been skewed toward Clinton's demographics. Plus, Obama hasn't been truly competing against her for a month. It's the equivalent to saying a basketball finished weak because their lead fell from 20 to 15 in the final quarter.

Why is everyone so frantic to have the Clinton sta...

2008-06-03T23:43:00.000-04:00

Why is everyone so frantic to have the Clinton stats removed? Insecure much?

Ben-"ARG claims that they are accurately predictin...

2008-06-03T23:42:00.000-04:00

Ben-

"ARG claims that they are accurately predicting events, whereas this website is experimental."

Uh, the motto of this website is "Electoral Projections Done Right." Clearly not the case.

"ARG's results were, as Nate said, 'batshit.'"

Yet they were closer than Nate's projections. What does that make Nate's projections?

so... can you take down the clinton poll stats now...

2008-06-03T23:40:00.000-04:00

so... can you take down the clinton poll stats now? thanks.

It's true that Nate's prediction was more off than...

2008-06-03T23:37:00.000-04:00

It's true that Nate's prediction was more off than ARG's in SD, but his overall performance for the day is way better. And, most importantly, he didn't do a poll. ARG claims that they are accurately predicting events, whereas this website is experimental. ARG's results were, as Nate said, "batshit."