Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/20

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2009-03-12T02:04:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:04:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T00:14:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T22:55:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T08:59:00.000-05:00

"Let's ban cars so no children are hurt by car acc...

2008-09-23T04:46:00.000-04:00

"Let's ban cars so no children are hurt by car accidents, too. Or at least ban the scary looking, fast cars."

Let's ban steering wheels so no one scary-looking can drive cars fast. And let's ban triggers on guns so that gun owners can only use them to hit things or people, or maybe to prop things up, like tables with one broken leg, as long as you don't mind the table being kinda wobbly.

Funding Available For Any Business -- Now!

The safe Obama-Biden states are1)California(55ev)2...

2008-09-21T16:30:00.000-04:00

The safe Obama-Biden states are
1)California(55ev)
2)Connecticut(7ev)
3)Delaware(3ev)
4)District of Columbia(3ev)
5)Hawaii(4ev)
6)Illinios(21ev)
7)Iowa(7ev)
8)Maine(4ev)
9)Maryland(10ev)
10)Massachusetts(12ev)
11)New York(31ev)
12)Rhode Island(4ev)
13)Vermont(3ev)
164ev
The Likely Obama-Biden States are
14)New Jersey(15ev)
15)New Mexico(5ev)
16)Oregon(7ev)
17)Washington(11ev)
202ev
The Safe McCain-Palin States
1)Alabama(9ev)
2)Alaska(3ev)
3)Arizona(10ev)
4)Arkansas(6ev)
5)Georgia(15ev)
6)Idaho(4ev)
7)Kansas(6ev)
8)Kentucky(8ev)
9)Louisiana(9ev)
10)Mississippi(6ev)
11)Montana(3ev)
12)Nebraska(5ev)
13)North Dakota(3ev)
14)Oklahoma(7ev)
15)South Carolina(8ev)
16)South Dakota(3ev)
17)Tennessee(11ev)
18)Texas(34ev)
19)Utah(5ev)
20)Wyoming(3ev)
158ev

If Obama-Biden ticket wins
1)Virginia(13ev)or Michigan(17ev)
2)Pennsylvania(21ev)or Ohio(20ev)
3)Colorado(9ev)
4)Minnesota(10ev)
5)Wisconsin(10ev)
6)Nevada(5ev)or New Hampshire(4ev)

Hi Nate,Does your method account for the Bradley e...

2008-09-21T10:52:00.000-04:00

Hi Nate,

Does your method account for the Bradley effect? Just curious.

Love the website.

VirgCon, that old saw "guns don't kill people, peo...

2008-09-21T00:39:00.000-04:00

VirgCon, that old saw "guns don't kill people, people kill people" rings a little hollow with all this school gun violence. And it will/is losing its appeal as Virginia and NC become full of californians. But hey, I have a really cool water pistol that is the shape of a duck I can send you as a consolation prize.

Hey look, I completely agree with Mule Rider!Very ...

2008-09-20T20:25:00.002-04:00

Hey look, I completely agree with Mule Rider!

Very little of this move in the election is Obama and the economy, it's just returning to its natural state.

Hey look, I completely agree with Mule Rider!Very ...

2008-09-20T20:25:00.001-04:00

Hey look, I completely agree with Mule Rider!

Very little of this move in the election is Obama and the economy, it's just returning to its natural state.

Hey look, I completely agree with Mule Rider!Very ...

2008-09-20T20:25:00.000-04:00

Hey look, I completely agree with Mule Rider!

Very little of this move in the election is Obama and the economy, it's just returning to its natural state.

To further the point, I think most people who had ...

2008-09-20T19:55:00.000-04:00

To further the point, I think most people who had already been convinced about "bad economic policies of the current Republican administration" were pretty much already swayed to cast their vote for Obama.

And I believe that people who are sticking with McCain, despite the crumbling of the banking/credit system, are going to anyway regardless of how bad the news is or how much worse it gets.

Maybe a few truly undecided people will tilt one way or another, but I think the shift back towards Obama was just McCain's "bounce" fading into the distance.

THE Bob,Pretty much. I don't think what happened e...

2008-09-20T19:52:00.000-04:00

THE Bob,

Pretty much. I don't think what happened earlier in the week (bank crisis, AIG bailout, etc.) had any significant direct effect on people's voting preference.

I think it was mostly just an erosion of the McCain bounce as you mention and basically just a return to reality that this election heavily favors Democrats on numerous fronts.

michiganmaine,Read through the comments assclown. ...

2008-09-20T19:49:00.001-04:00

michiganmaine,

Read through the comments assclown. I'm not in the tank for McCain, although I am being a bit snarky for Nate and the Gang here at 538 for being in the tank for Obama.

Instead of cutting/pasting my words and issuing a childish retort like "You sore loser!", why don't you come up with something actually witty and/or intelligent as a response?

And it looks like it's not having the impact on pe...

2008-09-20T19:49:00.000-04:00

And it looks like it's not having the impact on people's voting preferences that we're being led to believe.

So you are saying that this Obama surge isn't due to the economy, just lose of the McCain convention bounce?

Ok with me.

Americans Shrug Off CrisisEvidently, not everyone...

2008-09-20T19:46:00.000-04:00

Americans Shrug Off Crisis

Evidently, not everyone is getting the memo that they should be on the edge of their seats and up in arms about the current state of the economy.

And it looks like it's not having the impact on people's voting preferences that we're being led to believe.

peter wrote:The thing with McCain and Zapatero the...

2008-09-20T19:30:00.001-04:00

peter wrote:
The thing with McCain and Zapatero the Spanish PM may be a straw in the wind before the debates.

But Obama could certainly bring it up in the debates and make McCain look either extreme or confused.

What he "meant" is not as important as what he said, and he implied that Spain is in league with "America's enemies".

The difference between Obama and McCain is that when Obama makes a mistake like "57 states", he doesn't go through extreme semantic contortions to assert that there really are 57 states; he says he mis-spoke. McCain, on the other hand, follows in the Bush mould of never admitting a mistake. He said something stupid, and if you believe in him then you must buy in to whatever perverse logic it requires to make his mistake seem grand and insightful.

That is a question of judgement that Obama can exploit. Since McCain is pretending that his gaffe was in reality a serious statement of foreign policy, Obama can be free to take him seriously and attack him on the notion that Spain is one of our enemies.

If McCain back-pedals, Obama can point out a complete policy shift in less than a week's time while setting up the implication that you can't take anything McCain says seriously because he will just change his position in a few days. How can our allies know where McCain stands when he makes contradictory statements from week to week?

It's as big of a deal as Obama wants to make of it. He doesn't have to touch the senility issue - rather play it the opposite way as someone who takes McCain seriously but is concerned about his inconsistent "message".

So Virginia Conservative, how would you feel if yo...

2008-09-20T19:30:00.000-04:00

So Virginia Conservative, how would you feel if your state turned BLUE and won it for Obama in November?

Interesting to see all the panic in the Repubs her...

2008-09-20T19:28:00.000-04:00

Interesting to see all the panic in the Repubs here--freaking out like Mule Rider. Getting vicious as they begin to really lose.

Sore loser Mule Rider said: "Go ahead and push the tracker up to about 95% for Obama. You know you want to...shit, quit fooling around like you actually have a clue. You don't know a damn thing about how this election is going to turn out."

The new McCain ad:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S...

2008-09-20T19:09:00.000-04:00

The new McCain ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYI0mHWQeD8

And a C+D from Fox News:
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/1495881/PPM106_mccainad

The thing with McCain and Zapatero the Spanish PM ...

2008-09-20T19:01:00.000-04:00

The thing with McCain and Zapatero the Spanish PM may be a straw in the wind before the debates. It's not really clear what was going through his head at the time, but it looks to me as if at some level he got confused about who and where he was being asked about, and tried to bluff it out with his standard line on talking to enemies.

What's interesting is the spin that the McCain campaign put on it afterwards, maintaining stoutly that he meant exactly what he said, opening up a pissing contest with a NATO ally, reversing a statement he made back in April, not to mention skating past the implication that McCain thinks Spain is on the far side of the Atlantic from the Iberian peninsular.

It's almost as if they are hyper-sensitive to the implication that McCain's mental faculties are not all they used to be.

Obama gives press conferences all the time, takes ...

2008-09-20T18:50:00.000-04:00

Obama gives press conferences all the time, takes questions from the media has done plenty of sit downs with very tough questions so the comparasion here is not about Obama and the teleprompter and Palin not taking interviews or ANY press conference. He is the presidential candidate and she is just the VP. You want to compare compare to Biden. He is out there alone and going on shows almost every day. The issue here is that because she is not doing this McCain does not have an effective extra surrogate, he keeps having to protect her and they appear together more often than not. This limits the territory they can cover and also, the lack of dynamism in their events--he one townhall was by invite only unlike the previous one's McCain used to do--just rob the campaign from appealing to the moderates and independents.
I went away for a couple of weeks, back then VCon sounded reasonable about her experience and how this was bad for the Republicans. I see he has now been totally converted to the talkingpoints.

1. Charles, I do not think you are being fair to V...

2008-09-20T18:35:00.000-04:00

1. Charles, I do not think you are being fair to VC. I think he/she (sorry, don't know) has been skeptical in the past of the Palin pick. You are setting the bar so low for Palin that my dog could win the debate with the expectations you are setting for a sitting governor. Acting like Palin is a moron is a losing proposition for us, in my opinion.

2. Joe, Does McCain survive? Even under the scenario you describe, Obama would only win 70% of the vote max. See the Bush approval ratings for my supporting evidence for this statement.

I think a debate possibility was missed:* McCain s...

2008-09-20T18:28:00.001-04:00

I think a debate possibility was missed:

* McCain stops breathing and blacks out, Obama performs CPR to save his life. As Obama is performing CPR, Palin -- who wants to be the presidential nominee -- attempts to shoot Obama in the face but misses.

Under this scenario, I could see a possible Obama Super-Landslide.