Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Running (Mate) to the Center [UPDATED]

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2009-10-08T07:33:53.404-04:00

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2009-03-11T06:02:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T06:01:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T01:41:00.000-05:00

in retrospect, your comments about the positive si...

2009-01-11T03:10:00.000-05:00

in retrospect, your comments about the positive side of Rendell's tendency to "glib and be politically incorrect" seem to also apply perfectly to Obama's choice in Biden.

Bill Richardson,Evan Bayh,and Bob Graham were on A...

2008-07-14T22:06:00.000-04:00

Bill Richardson,Evan Bayh,and Bob Graham were on Al Gore's VP shortlist in 2000 and Kerry's in 2004. Richardson had to deal with the Wen Ho Lee Scandal. Bayh was have problems with the women groups for supporting the ban on partial birth abortions and Graham was faced with the personal diaries.

Looking at Obama's VP runningmate- I would eliminate any Governor or US Senator in his first term.
This means Obama needs to consider from
1)Janet Napolitano(AZ)
2)Blanche Lincoln(AR)
3)Barbara Boxer(CA)
4)Diane Fienstien(CA)
5)Chris Dodd(CT)
6)Joe Biden(DE)
7)Tom Carper(DE)
8)Bill Nelson(FL)
9)Daniel Inouye(HI)
10)Daniel Akaka(HI)
11)Evan Bayh(IN)
12)Tom Harkin(IA)
13)Kathleen Sebelius(KS)
14)Mary Landrieu(LA)
15)John Baldacci(ME)
16)Barbara Mikulski(MD)
17)Ted Kennedy(MA)
18)John Kerry(MA)
19)Carl Levin(MI)
20)Debbie Stabenow(MI)
21)Max Baucus(MT)
22)Ben Nelson(NE)
23)Harry Reid(NV)
24)John Lynch(NH)
25)Jeff Bingaman(NM)
26)Bill Richardson(NM)
27)Hillary Clinton(NY)
28)Chuck Schumer(NY)
29)Mike Easley(NC)
30)Kent Conrad(ND)
31)Byron Dorgan(ND)
32)Brad Henry(OK)
33)Ted Kulongoski(OR)
34)Ron Wyden(OR)
35)Ed Rendell(PA)
36)Jack Reed(RI)
37)Tim Johnson(SD)
38)Phil Bredesen(TN)
39)Pat Leahy(VT)
40)Patty Murray(WA)
41)Maria Cantwell(WA)
42)Jay Rockefeller(WV)
43)Herb Kohl(WI)
44)Russ Feingold(WI)
45)Jim Doyle(WI)
46)Dave Freudenthal(WY)

I would eliminate any woman candidate.
1)Chris Dodd(CT)
2)Joe Biden(DE)
3)Tom Carper(DE)
4)Bill Nelson(FL)
5)Dan Inouye(HI)
6)Dan Akaka(HI)
7)Evan Bayh(IN)
8)Tom Harkin(IA)
9)John Baldacci(ME)
10)Ted Kennedy(MA)
11)John Kerry(MA)
12)Carl Levin(MI)
13)Max Baucus(MT)
14)Ben Nelson(NE)
15)Harry Reid(NV)
16)John Lynch(NH)
17)Jeff Bingaman(NM)
18)Bill Richardson(NM)
19)Chuck Schumer(NY)
20)Mike Easley(NC)
21)Kent Conrad(ND)
22)Byron Dorgan(ND)
23)Brad Henry(OK)
24)Ted Kulongoski(OR)
25)Ron Wyden(OR)
26)Ed Rendell(PA)
27)Jack Reed(RI)
28)Tim Johnson(SD)
29)Phil Bredeson(TN)
30)Pat Leahy(VT)
31)John Rockefeller(WV)
32)Jim Doyle(WI)
33)Herb Kohl(WI)
34)Russ Feingold(WI)
35)Dave Freudenthal(WY)
I would eliminate candidates over 60.
1)Evan Bayh(IN)
2)John Baldacci(ME)
3)John Lynch(NH)
4)Chuck Schumer(NY)
5)Mike Easley(NC)
6)Kent Conrad(ND)
7)Brad Henry(OK)
8)Ron Wyden(OR)
9)Jack Reed(RI)
10)Russ Feingold(WI)
11)Dave Freudenthal(WY)

I would eliminate any candidate who supported the Iraq war.
1)John Lynch(NH)
2)Mike Easley(NC)
3)Brad Henry(OK)
4)Ron Wyden(OR)
5)Jack Reed(RI)
6)Russell Feingold(WI)
7)Dave Freudenthal(WY)

I would eliminate any candidate who lacks foriegn policy experience
1)Ron Wyden(OR)
2)Jack Reed(RI)
3)Russ Feingold(WI)

My pick for Obama would be Jack Reed(RI). He has a JFKish personality.
Irish Catholic from the Northeast. Harvard Graduate. Served in the Military. He is progressive enough to satisfy the liberal base in the democratic party he is not too liberal to alienate moderates.
Regarding Rhode Island having a Republican Governor. It would not matter.
Jack Reed is up for re-election this year. If he is selected as Obama's VP. Reed can give up his seat- Democrats can replace Reed with Charles Fogarty. The former two term Lt Governor who narrowly lost the 2006 RI Governors Race to Incumbent Republican governor Don Carcieri or AG Patrick Lynch. If he runs for US Senate and VP at the same time. Carcieri(R) can appoint Reed's replacement if Reed becomes VP.
The only Republican Carcieri can appoint is Lincoln Chaffee. Other republicans will lose in the 2010 Special election. Chaffee will become an independent and caucus with the Democrats.

I would think richardson would be a bad choice, do...

2008-07-14T13:13:00.000-04:00

I would think richardson would be a bad choice, does not have the charisma, intangibles for the national public stage. Of course this might depend on who McCain would pick as several of his faves have fewer intangibles and less experience. Richardson should get a cabinet position if desired to show the dems can reach out about as much as repubs do. I mean allowing GWB to have the only fully integrated Cabinet in history seems kind of backwards doesnt it.

My former firm was behind Edwards, but what they f...

2008-07-14T13:09:00.000-04:00

My former firm was behind Edwards, but what they found here in Michigan was women who were pissed and lashed out violently verbally against a guy who would spend the countless hours running for office during his wife's very real battle with cancer. Pictures of her during that time period showed loss of hair from chemo, with no good reports from doctors. I dont know if that will pop its ugly head up again, or how she is doing. But Edwards was not playing well among a huge part of his base, married females, during the primary.

Michael said... What's with these claims that O...

2008-07-14T12:44:00.000-04:00

Michael said...

What's with these claims that Obama has the most liberal voting record? Do you mean among freshman? Is that in fact demonstrable? Because Nate has clearly shown that Obama does NOT have the most liberal voting record in the Senate, and anyone who thinks he's to the left of the Independent social democrat, Bernie Sanders, is either ignorant or delusional.
July 13, 2008 6:55 PM

It's a talking point that the right wing has managed to infiltrate into the public mind (completely agree with you on Bernie Sanders). It comes from the yearly National Journal Senate rankings; where they strip away all but 99 Votes, classify each with a "Liberal" and "Conservative" position; with the "Conservative" position all but baselined along the Bush administration's positions so that the Democratic Presidential candidate is declared "The most Liberal Senator" (Kerry was awarded the title in 2004).

Here's a list of the votes so you can see for yourself how absurd their classifications are:

http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/votes.htm

It's laughable how pro-Big Business their "Conservative" classification is:

1) Prevent Mexican trucks from operating on most U.S. roads (Yes is Liberal)
2) Establish a Senate Office of Public Integrity to handle ethics complaints against senators (Yes is Liberal)
3) Repeal the federal minimum wage by giving states the authority to set minimum wages (No is Liberal)

"Obama campaign really minds the "Obama is moving ...

2008-07-13T20:32:00.000-04:00

"Obama campaign really minds the "Obama is moving to the center" narrative, but I'm sure they very much do mind its second-cousin, "Obama is a flip-flopper".
------------------
Since Obama has emphasized change and "new politics" and that the VP won't be picked because of narrow geographic considerations but on their ability to be president and a governing partner with Obama, he risks inviting the flip-flop narrative with Evan Bayh, surely Daschle and Gephardt are impossibilities, certainly Nunn, Hillary because of her ties to lobbyists.

Kaine may invite charges that it's a pick nakedly going for Virginia but because of Obama's personal friendship with Kaine and thus, ability to vouch for his integrity, he can refute such a claim. Plus Kaine's outsider status. Sebelius and Reed prevent the flip-flop charge.

Clark and Edwards can possibly be criticized as flip-floppers themselves which would be a problem.

Gore would work.

i don't know what being the "most liberal senator"...

2008-07-13T20:19:00.000-04:00

i don't know what being the "most liberal senator" has to do with picking richardson. it's either a sign that either you haven't thought out how to phrase your suggestion, or, more plausibly, that you're just itching to take a political shot at him. in which case, i don't quite see your usefulness in here. if you parse through all the previous posts, im sure you'll realize that you're doing a one-handed clap when it comes to insulting people. (gayest bastard).

In politics- Perception is Reality. People conside...

2008-07-13T20:08:00.000-04:00

In politics- Perception is Reality. People consider Obama to be a Left Wing Liberal.

Another Analogy?
I can imply that you are the gayest bastard in this country. Does that mean you are Gayer than Mark Foley or Larry Craig.

What's with these claims that Obama has the most l...

2008-07-13T19:55:00.000-04:00

What's with these claims that Obama has the most liberal voting record? Do you mean among freshman? Is that in fact demonstrable? Because Nate has clearly shown that Obama does NOT have the most liberal voting record in the Senate, and anyone who thinks he's to the left of the Independent social democrat, Bernie Sanders, is either ignorant or delusional.

Obama is a freshman US Senator who has the most li...

2008-07-13T19:10:00.000-04:00

Obama is a freshman US Senator who has the most liberal voting record and lacks foriegn policy experience. Obama needs to pick a Governor who has foriegn policy experience- comes from a battleground state and won't overshadow him.
My pick would be Bill Richardson.

i'm afraid this seems a little silly, nate. it's ...

2008-07-13T16:47:00.000-04:00

i'm afraid this seems a little silly, nate. it's like a tv commentator trying to predict the next pitch in a ball game: "well, he just threw him a fastball inside...and so the batter's gonna think he's going to throw off-speed outside.. so he's gonna throw the batter another fastball inside just to fool him...unless the batter realizes it...then he'll throw him an off-speed pitch outside." Nobody knows what the pitcher's going to do (other than the catcher).

first of all clark is out, out, out. there are a lot of people having dress-rehearsals for VP right now, and clark bombed his by stomping on obama's message for a week.

obama is up right now. he is not going to take a big chance with his VP and he doesn't need to (McCain may). and he isn't going to give one rat's ass about the left feeling he's pandering to the center or vice versa.

to assure the nation that he's ready to be their president, he needs to pick someone who exudes competence and moderation and won't step on his message for the rest of the campaign. the only thing i remember gore saying in 1992 was "It's time for them to go."

Very nice - looked great, nice resume, foreign policy expertise, capable of the occsional acerbic shot at McCain - that's what obama needs from a VP. Bayh's perfect. Sebelius might be, Biden is famous for gaffes, but i'll admit i can't think of any other than the "clean and articulate" one.

excellent. i'd have to say, this is the premier si...

2008-07-13T16:01:00.000-04:00

excellent. i'd have to say, this is the premier site for fostering genuine debate. i hope once in a while nate brings up such subjects so that folks who've gathered more info can engage.

I see Schweitzer as an excellent compliment to Oba...

2008-07-13T15:48:00.000-04:00

I see Schweitzer as an excellent compliment to Obama in terms of focus. As mentioned above, Obama's strengths and interests are first in fixing government and I believe also in changing the attitudes of people to get people to begin working and functioning together again. He will remove corruption, implement a national health care plan, begin national service programs etc. Underlying all of this is what I see as our biggest problem, our failing infrastructure especially as it pertains to energy. This is Schweitzer expertise. I see him as a no-nonsence nuts and bolts kind of guy with regards to this. He realizes we have a difficult problem to solve, and that we have to use all that is available to us taking into consideration both effectiveness and the environmental concerns. He won't give into ideology that can lead to inefficient decisions. People will believe him and trust him as he comes across in a clear and straightforward manner. That is absolutely critical in the kind of time that we are facing.

I see Obama and Schweitzer as a partnership that would hopefully extend into a Schweitzer Presidency in 8 years. I think initially the government reforms will be paramount and we will be putting in place programs to help people in the difficult economy. Survival, conservation, taking care of each other and making sure that everyone's basic needs are met in the short term anyhow will be early themes. As time passes those problems will be dealt with and the focus will move more and more to the specific infrastructure improvements we are making. In 8 years the lawyer/civic organizer President Obama could naturally give way to the Scientist/Engineer President Schweitzer.l

Bob Shrum was as responsible for the 2004 Kerry-Ed...

2008-07-13T15:08:00.000-04:00

Bob Shrum was as responsible for the 2004 Kerry-Edwards strategy and tactics as anyone.
How on Earth can Edwards be continually criticized for failure to repond to the "swift-boaters"?
Obama's David Axelrod will NOT make the same mistakes. That is the brain to be inside of if one wanted to lock-in the bet on who the VP will be.

Frank in Germany, Thanks for your comments. It is...

2008-07-13T15:00:00.000-04:00

Frank in Germany,

Thanks for your comments. It is a pleasure to have you on this forum as you are obviously well-informed and provide a perspective quite different from most of the rest of us. Your written English is excellent, BTW.

My only disagreement with your previous post is with respect to Bill Richardson. Not even a disagreement perhaps, since you prefaced your comments by saying that you were looking at the candidates from primarily a resume-based perspective.

I agree that Richardson has an excellent resume, but to be frank, I cringe every time I see him being interviewed. I suppose there are some people that never master the art of spoken communication, and Richardson, despite his obvious experience, is clearly one of those. Some here say that he has improved, but I saw him on Face The Nation a couple of weeks ago, and he was just as halting, ill-at-ease and inarticulate as ever, so I doubt he's actually improved to the point where he would not be a libaility to the Dem ticket. A polished debater such as Romney would make mincemeat out of him.

Moreover, as good a resume as Richardson has, the average undecided voter is not going to go online and look up his c.v., they are going to listen to him during the debate and possibly in a few other situations and make their judgment based on those few opportunities where they hear the man speak. If the past is any guide, that will not go well for him and the ticket.

And finally, he doesn't really add much electorally. He would probably guarantee New Mexico's five EVs, but the NM will probably go Dem this year anyway. He does not bring along Colorado as some have suggested. Colorado is only 10% Latino, and about half that with respect to the voting population, and in any case, the Richardson name does not have much political clout in the state, or any other state that is considered competitive at this time.

Bottom line, Richardson is just a bad choice. If you want to go Latino and from the West, Colorado Senator Ken Salazar is a much more impressive speaker than Richardson, and might deliver Colorado if it is a very close race there. Not that I'm an advocate for Salazar; he just looks like a much better choice than Richardson.

All this analysis plus 94 comments, and not a sing...

2008-07-13T14:44:00.000-04:00

All this analysis plus 94 comments, and not a single mention of Claire McCaskill?

I like McCaskill a lot, but it seems to me she has one big thing going for her -- personal chemistry with Obama -- and a lot of potential issues. She has less experience than he does, she represents a key, hard-won seat in a major swing state, and although I like her a lot, I don't think she projects gravitas the way, say, Sebelius or Hillary do.

I feel the same way about her as I do about Webb -- like them a lot in the Senate, don't really want to see them in the Naval Observatory.

I am working in international development cooperat...

2008-07-13T14:14:00.000-04:00

I am working in international development cooperation - the kind of stuff Obama's mother and Brian Schweitzer used to do. Part of that job consists of putting together specialist teams for complex projects that are financed by organisations like the World Bank or the European Union. So I would like to offer a 'technocrat' perspective on the VP issue - which team would be most likely to get the job done well. That excludes any consideration of election aspects (appeal to certain voters, bringing in speciric states etc.). Those aspects are of course important as well, but, as a non-American, I do not feel qualified to give any respective opinion.

Obama has said himself that he will look for a VP that brings in complementary experience and skills. I think this is a wise approach. It implies that, in order to assess VP candidates, it is first required to assess what Obama hinself is already bringing to the ticket, and where additional expertise might be required.

1.
I see Obama's core strength in the area of 'governance'. This includes, among others, government ethics and transparency, increasing peoples' participation in political processes, re-balancing the executive, parliamentary and judiciary powers, (re-)strengthening civil rights etc. It is probably hard to find a better resume on these issues than Obama's (community organiser, editor of Harvard Law Review, Lecturer on Constitutional Law etc.).
I think this 'governance' background is relevant to the USA, and a clear asset to Obama. [This is, by the way, why FISA may become problematic, because Obama was not just 'flip-flopping' or 'moving to the centre' on some issue, but on an issue in his area of core competence.] This implies, that 'governance' background is not needed for the VP, and may even be dangerous, because Obama and his VP might get into competence struggle on 'governance' issues. Consequently, I would downrate any candidates with legal, auditor general and/or similar background, including Hillary Clinton, Evan Bayh, Janet Napolitanto, Jack Reed.

2. While it appears to be common opinion that Obama has weaknesses in foreign policy, I don't share that opinion. To the opposite, I feel foreign policy to be Obama's second area of core competence, due to his inter-cultural background and up-raising, and also since he is member or even chair of relevant Senate committees.
More specifically, i feel that Obama's foreign policy positions will go very well with European governments. I think he will have huge leverage on US-African relations, and is also extremely well qualified to deal with East and South-East Asia. For example, he spent his first secondary school years in a private catholic school in Indonesia - this is the kind of schools to which the Chinese minority in Indonesia is typically sending their children to.
Obama has less of a background on Latin America and Arab countries, so a little more expertise in these regions might help the ticket. This is making Bill Richardson an obvious complement - if not as VP, than as Secretary of State. Nevertheless, Brian Schweitzer does not look bad in this respect either. However, as said, I don't feel that foreign policy is the No.1 area in which the competence mix needs strengthening.

3. Obama has demonstrated great managerial skills in the way he run his primary campaign. However, it is one thing to build a grass-roots organisation from scratch, and another thing to take over an established bureaucracy and make it implement new policies. Obama's resume does not show extensive governing experience, so I think it is indisbendable to have a VP that actually has governed a larger territorial unit, i.e. a (former) big-city mayor or a governor. Goodbye John Edwards, Jack Reed, Claire McCaskill. And I am not sure that you can (and should) run a government like an army, so I would also not favour Wesley Clark.

4. As concerns issues, Obsma has himself hinted that some more background on climate / energy issues in the team could be good (CNN interview in early Spring, I unfortunately dont't recall the exact date). That would obviously make Al Gore the top choice. If Gore declined the post, Richardson appears to be a reasonable alternative (former U.S. Secretary of Energy, representing the USA during the establishment of the UD Environment Program etc.). Brian Schweitzer is frequently listed as being strong on energy and environmental issues, but I have so far not seen much hard evidence to back-up such claims.

5. As it looks, the key issue of the election, and presumably also a key issue of the new administration, will be the economy. In my opinion, this will need to go alongside with fiscal reform, as (i) tax policy is a key element of economic policy and (ii) the current U.S. budget deficit is neither sustainable, nor financeable, nor helping the US Dollar.
While Obama has so far not fared too badly when it comes to economic and budgetary issues (and clearly better than John McCain), I nevertheless feel there is scope for adding more "beef to the bone".
Consequently, I think it would not be a bad idea to have a VP with Business administration / economics background, and a good record on fiscal issues. Such qualification, however, is surprisingly rare in the field of VP candidates. The only economics graduate I could find is Evan Bayh. Tim Kain has a B.A. in economics, and Kathleen Sebelius a Master in Public Administration. A good record on fiscal issues have Bayh, Sebelius and Richardson. That seems to be about it.

6. Finally - what about military background / experience? I personally think that the worst thing you can have is a politician who thinks he knows more about military issues than the army people in charge. I also think that the military agenda should be set by political considerations, not the other way round. Last but not least: As important as the Iraq war is to US politics today, it would be a gross understatement of other challenges (economy, climate change, health care etc.) if military experience would be made a key criteria for selecting a VP. [Besides: Those who feel differently have an option to vote for, namely John McCain].

In short: If Al Gore wants the job, he should get it. Otherwise, Bill Richardson emerges as the most convincing candidate, combining strong foreign policy and energy background with executive experience and a good track record on fiscal issues. Evan Bayh could enhance the economic, fiscal and executive competence of the ticket, as could Kathleen Sebelius. Brian Schweitzer could bring an interesting combination of foreign, executive and environmental background.

I would invite those four for interviews, and put everyone else
on the reserve list. But that's just me ...

Someone wrote that Obama had said his vp would nee...

2008-07-13T13:22:00.000-04:00

Someone wrote that Obama had said his vp would need to be instantly recognizable as presidential fodder. I would like to know a source for that as I only read it here.

The reason is that it would knock out Schweitzer who is mostly unknown. He is however an attack dog without parallel. He connects with a smile and heavy barbs at the heart of foolish policies.

And he is young enough to succeed Barack after two terms. He would be sixty.

If you see Schweitzer getting Barack hang time, you can bet he is on the short list and that Barack is trying to make up for the is-he-known deficit.

He did have some low key time in North or South Carolina recently and of course over the 4th in MT.

He is also key to Western strategy and miles beyond Richardson as a creative thinker and versatile campaigner.

Picking him would also suggest that Plouffe's internals support both a likely victory and the wisdon of a Westward tilt.

I'm glad to hear some other people agree with me o...

2008-07-13T13:12:00.000-04:00

I'm glad to hear some other people agree with me on Richardson being one of the top (if not the top) option.

Ed Rendell seems like a strange juxtaposition with Obama. And not in a complementary surrogate way.

For me-- Richardson is best option. Edwards works ok, but is unlikely 'cause Democrats, America, and media doesn't like backtracking. Gore an extreme of the same argument. Clinton and most vocal cantankerous Clinton supporters will have trouble looking united on message and not like pandering. Bayh wasn't especially cantankerous, he's a possibility. Sebelius good option. McCaskill good option. Biden and Dodd ok options. I'd steer clear of explicit swing state strategies and go for someone with a reasonable resume and looking good and sounding good next to Obama trumpeting the same message. And I think that's the way they'll go.

By the way-- what's "ballsy" and what's "safe" could go in circles forever.

im every bit against rendel. used to like him and ...

2008-07-13T12:50:00.000-04:00

im every bit against rendel. used to like him and thought he had good chemistry with obama even though he's been pretty though against him during the primaries, but the red light moment came when he went to msnbc and took a joke-y swipe at the "obama-is-a-muslim" thing. yeah, i know he's trying to be funny and yeah he doesn't have a lot of awareness for the echo-chambers and the percussion of his words but that was a bit too far. Now, i gotta say that if we're talking about Obama needing to be ballsy, then i guess i can argue that because everyone needs him to be ballsy, then if he makes a ballsy choice, he'll just be capitulating. hence, he needs to make a safe pick. and although i think edwards and bayh makes the ticket look a bit feminine and rock-star-y, the previous blogger who argued about meta-narratives a choice pushes has a point. im still in favor of kathleen sebelius, but im favorable to dodd even though some of us think he's got no chance. this countrywide thing will be pushed by the cable networks aggressively but i think he's the ultimate safe pick. that mortgage thing is just pr affair. and obama doesn't quite have a good pr department yet. in fact, i think they've let a few valuable opportunities pass and haven't been nearly as effective as they should be. which actually worries me. as to criticism that he's moving to the center, i couldn't welcome that more than i do right now. so, that's good news, even though beyond Fisa, this theme is just an illusion than anything else.