Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Guess Who's Blogging for the National Press Club?

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2009-02-12T22:48:00.000-05:00

It seems Steve O'Hearn has deleted all of his blog...

2008-06-19T18:49:00.000-04:00

It seems Steve O'Hearn has deleted all of his blog posts between May and June 7th. The link to "Do we really have a winner yet" just gives you a 404 page.

Fortunately, Google's cache saved the article before Steve deleted his own blog post because of how stupid it was.

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Do we really have a winner yet?
June 6th, 2008 · No Comments

Several months ago, the mainstream media started declaring Illinois Senator Barak Obama the likely winner of the Democrat primaries. Yesterday, most national newspapers declared this victory official, and have already begun the debate about his running mate selection.

Yet this declaration, even now, is premature. Check out the current status of the ongoing popular vote, currently on display at the website RealClearPolitics.com.

With such a narrow spread, can either candidate really be declared victorious?

Is Obama in the lead? Yes, but without a clear majority. The votes have yet to be fully cast, let alone fully counted. So with less than one-tenths of one-percent of a lead, and fewer than a simple majority, who in their right minds could possibly declare him the clear winner yet?

Well, for one - the same people who put out condescending ”articles” like this one from the Washington Post - see below:

Condescending pictures and articles like this against Clinton have been commonplace

Aside from the fact that Clinton denied this June 3 report later on that same day, check out the photograph the Post elected to run with this - showing Clinton with a pathetic half-crying, half-begging facial expression, clearly an odd moment and not truly reflective of what was happening at the time.

Many elements of the so-called “mainstream” media have run photos like this of Clinton throughout the primary process. These same articles, pundits, etc., have been relentless for months in their demands that Clinton bow out, with headlines stating that she’s “refused” to “admit defeat”, even when she was leading in the popular vote count.

Furthermore, whenever Clinton asked legitimate questions about Obama - such as what exactly does he intend to “change”, or what has he ever done in his brief year in the Senate that qualifies him for any sort of executive responsibility - no mainstream media organization took those questions seriously, and instead declared Clinton “mean-spirited”, and continued to report that she was “refusing” to exit the race.

Last I checked, a news report was supposed to be about something that has actually happened, not something that hasn’t happened. A truly non-partison work of journalism would have instead ignored the non-story of a candidate who has not done something, and instead reported some actual news of events that have happened, such as the vote count in the neck-and-neck back-and-forth race between these two candidates.

But to discuss actual facts would’ve conflicted with the pre-determined agenda of Obama’s hoped-for victory. So instead of reporting actual news events, many elements of the “mainstream” media have disguised opinion as news articles, and served as the pawn of power-brokers who declared Obama the Democratic nominee long before the American voter ever had a chance to weigh in.

The next question is this: does that same power base also want Obama to win the general election? Or will they turn on him during the general and begin promoting McCain?

Time will tell. Contrary to what some self-appointed “experts” would have you believe, the race is far from over.

The Plot Gets Thicker?After I got finished laughin...

2008-06-18T22:36:00.000-04:00

The Plot Gets Thicker?

After I got finished laughing at the well-hung lawyer in the kilt, I did some more clicking around, and found out that Larry Sinclair is not the one who paid for the room where the press conference was held.

It was paid for by "Veritas Federal Media," which appears to be the same as "Veritas Media Group." It has some interesting political ties to the far right wing.

Its owner is a far right-wing consultant who appears on Fox, CNN, and CNBC, and owns at least one radio station.

It seems as if someone other than just an oddball ex-con and his weirdo lawyer might have had an interest in spreading this junk. Will wonders never cease.

Wow, what a freak show that was. My favorite part ...

2008-06-18T20:59:00.000-04:00

Wow, what a freak show that was. My favorite part is the disbarred lawyer who told everyone that he wears a kilt because he's too well-hung for pants.

And it's not really a press conference unless the host is arrested on a Delaware warrant on the way out.

I think we all might have worried too much about this. Ha ha ha ha!

I'd typically be inclined to register at Daily Kos...

2008-06-17T19:57:00.000-04:00

I'd typically be inclined to register at Daily Kos and make my points there, but I find them to be a "hive mind." The liberal blogger equivalent of a corporate meeting, whose collective I.Q. drops by a point or so with each new participant.

The media world has changed a lot, and will keep doing so. We are moving backwards in time, toward the partisan press that existed before the Civil War created a demand for objective reports from the battlefield.

There will be far-reaching implications from all of this. For one thing, it's making politics a lot more dynamic. There is a lot more parry-and-thrust than old farts like me (I'm in my 50s) are used to.

I think there'll be more Larry Sinclairs in general, at least for a while. At some point, the call will arise for more order, but that's going to be a while. For the time being, you can expect wild rides.

Which means that everyone's got to be dynamic yet maybe also not quite so panicky about this sort of stuff. Obama and his forces have to be out there countering it (as opposed to off in Hood River Canal, OR windsurfing, goddamnit).

And, when you've got a pile of horseshit this deep, being spread by an ex-con and former mental patient, with the help of a defrocked gossip columnist, maybe one way to handle it is to actually hold up the turd for everyone to see and say, "Hey, everyone! Get a load of this! How desperate are these Republican freaks, anyhow?!"

Maybe that's not the way to go. The Obama campaign has been pretty damn good so far, and I think they'll know how to play it.

A correction. I should have written in the second ...

2008-06-17T18:33:00.000-04:00

A correction. I should have written in the second paragraph, "I don't think the NPC is furthering freedom of expression by renting a room to Larry Sinclair." The extra not reversed my intended meaning.

Maybe I ought to go into the p.r. business, becaus...

2008-06-17T18:32:00.000-04:00

Maybe I ought to go into the p.r. business, because I'm going to defend the guy (Steve O'Hearn) again.

My point isn't that I agree with him or the NPC. In fact, I've argued against their application of "free expression" to this situation. As far as I'm concerned, Sinclair ought to be told to hold his "press conference" in a hotel room, a bar, or out on the sidewalk. I don't think the NPC is not furthering freedom of expression by renting a room to Larry Sinclair.

With that out of the way, what O'Hearn has written about the Clinton campaign, Tom Shales, or the merits of various broswers is beside the point. To even mention those things is just petty, and personal attacks on O'Hearn are uncivil. I find Larry Sinclair uncivil, and I'm not inclined to believe that two wrongs make a right.

People can make their points, and do it with verve, without being petty and uncivil. They can also have a sense of humor, which when it comes to this particular set of circumstances I think is useful.

Now that the NPC has decided not to back down, I might make a heretical suggestion, which is that genuine reporting on Larry Sinclair ought to be encouraged. Some journalistic outfit that practices that dying profession ought to attend his press conference and question the joker carefully.

The resulting article should be titled, "The Art of the Smear." Included in the article should be some reporting on his biggest Internet promoter, a website called "BigHeadDC," which is controlled by -- get this -- someone who was fired by a gossip magazine for misconduct.

You couldn't make this shit up, but someone sure is trying. Now that it's out there, it's probably time to nail these people with the facts. If 2004 taught anything, it's that you can't go windsurfing when people are trying to destroy you.

@3:26: Obama Electoral Votes IS the x-axis label. ...

2008-06-17T17:28:00.000-04:00

@3:26: Obama Electoral Votes IS the x-axis label. The title is at the top, where it usually is: Electoral Vote Distribution. And if you don't know what happens at 270 EVs to turn the color from red to blue, you don't have much reason to be at fivethirtyeight.com

Charles,Whether or not he shows indication of bias...

2008-06-17T16:56:00.000-04:00

Charles,

Whether or not he shows indication of bias in the past has no bearing on the inanity of that post.

Claiming that petitioning the National Press Club is somehow restricting free speach is silly and counterproductive to real arguments about supression of speech. A lack of one platform to
spew lies doesn't equal a supression.

Also the hilarious take on "I used alta vista to find less skewed results" is not that different from "Ohh fuck I'm in over my head an can't back up my argument, so I'll use a weaker search engine that shows the first 4 results as spam adds, BRILLIANT."

Love your graph entitled "Obama Electoral Votes." ...

2008-06-17T16:26:00.000-04:00

Love your graph entitled "Obama Electoral Votes." No label on the X-axis (I assume its something about the vote count); no label or even scale on the Y-axis; and no label indicating what the colors signify.

"Calling Dr. Tufte...."

I would guess that Guckert qualifies as an active ...

2008-06-17T15:39:00.000-04:00

I would guess that Guckert qualifies as an active member of the NPC.

He sure as hell doesn't fit my working definition of "journalist," but then neither do most of the FakeNews babes either. We don't license journalists in this country, and the growth of the Internet is transforming the meaning of the word, journalist.

I say all this by way of attempting my best guess at how Guckert is eligible to have the NPC host his blog. Whether or not the NPC ought to host blogs to begin with is an open question, given that there are so many hosting opportunities out there to begin with.

But, with respect to Guckert, if (as I suspect) he's an NPC member, and if the NPC hosts the blogs of its members, then there's no reason to think that NPC hosting should be closed to Guckert. Given the longstanding similarities between prostitutes and journalists, there's a certain elegance to it anyway. ;-)

And nor, if my guessing is on track, is there any cause to portray the NPC's granting hosting space to Guckert's blog as any kind of endorsement of what he pukes out there.

As a guess? Obama's not playing a simple tune. H...

2008-06-17T15:36:00.000-04:00

As a guess? Obama's not playing a simple tune. He's not just looking to win--he's looking to win big, to win broadly (penetrating regions that have been red turf) and to bring with him as many new Democratic senators and representatives as possible.

His win is already likely and he's just started beating on McCain. It's likely to only get better. It might be worth looking at where resources go with those three objectives in mind:

Where can he rack up the score--not just popular vote, but EVs?

Where can he win in regions that would help him argue that his mandate is uniquely broad based AND which will help the party develop new (future) strong points and possibilities?

Where can his team's efforts not only help him, but also help bring in a strongly Democratic Congress with many members who "owe" Obama support... and even some ground work for expanding the majority in 2010?

Looked at that way, does it make more sense?

And they LET him blog for them?Come on, don't be s...

2008-06-17T15:29:00.000-04:00

And they LET him blog for them?

Come on, don't be so foolish. Guckert (a/k/a Gannon) -- who is indeed a clown -- does not blog "for" the National Press Club, at least not that I can see. Rather, the NPC has a website where members can set up blog pages.

Gannon no more blogs "for" the NPC than than a left- or right-wing blogger blogs "for" Google or Go Daddy or whoever else hosts their content.

Gannon? GANNON?Oh my god, talk about a bad joke. ...

2008-06-17T15:24:00.000-04:00

Gannon? GANNON?

Oh my god, talk about a bad joke. And they LET him blog for them?

What's the intersection of shameless, stupid, and White House gay prostitute scandal?

Altavista is still better than Google for one thin...

2008-06-17T15:14:00.000-04:00

Altavista is still better than Google for one thing: finding music/sound, and until a month ago, it was better at translating less popular languages.

I say give Altavista kudos for being a trailblazer in its day. And remember that someday we'll be ridiculing people for still using Google.

A couple other things to say. First, O'Hearn isn't...

2008-06-17T15:06:00.000-04:00

A couple other things to say. First, O'Hearn isn't the National Press Club. He's the chairman of their "New Media Committee," which is a volunteer sideline. Here is his biography.

There are no political donations listed in his name. (In the interest of fair play, here are my political donations.)

Second, it doesn't look like, at least at the moment, O'Hearn is primarily a journalist, although he does have a record of intermittently having articles published on what appears to be a freelance basis. That's in his biography.

Third, even if he was a journalist, and even if he was a conservative journalist, as long as he exercised fair judgment (even if flawed) in his capacity at the NPC, there's no requirement, either explicit or implicit, that he somehow must be "neutral" on this or anything else.

People who think that journalists have to be "neutral" betray a serious misunderstanding of the nature of press freedom. Nowhere is there any requirement that the media be "objective." That is not, and never has been, any part of the first amendment.

been lurking for a few weeks. love the site. thank...

2008-06-17T15:04:00.000-04:00

been lurking for a few weeks. love the site. thank you.

In that MN SUSA poll, McCain is winning the libera...

2008-06-17T14:55:00.000-04:00

In that MN SUSA poll, McCain is winning the liberal-leaning Twin Cities metro area, while Obama is winning the conservative western and southern portions of the state. Doesn't make much sense.

kcindc, when you commented about O'Hearn sounding ...

2008-06-17T14:49:00.000-04:00

kcindc, when you commented about O'Hearn sounding like a wingnut I went and read his blog. With the proviso that neither you nor I can know what's in the guy's head, I have to say that I don't see any rational basis to peg him as a Republican, let alone a wingnut.

To me, he sounds like your garden-variety skeptical journalist, i.e., an independent contrarian. I don't happen to agree with him about the Sinclair issue, and I've said so both publicly and privately in an e-mail to him.

But there's really no cause to go after O'Hearn personally, whether directly or by insinuation.

Charles, I'm not saying there's a conspiracy, just...

2008-06-17T14:43:00.000-04:00

Charles, I'm not saying there's a conspiracy, just that my opinion of NPC has changed after reading that "the race is far from over" post and especially after reading this:

Personally, I have no idea what Larry Sinclair is going to say, and before I got this email from FireDogLake, I couldn’t care less.

But suddenly I’m rather curious that an organization like FireDogLake.com would be taking so much effort and going to so much trouble to collect tens of thousands of signatures and petitions and launching a barrage of phone calls against the National Press Club for the sole purpose of shutting down someone’s right to free speech.

O'Hearn sounds like someone posting on a wingnut blog, not any sort of neutral journalist.

The SUSA poll in Minnesota looks like an outlier. ...

2008-06-17T14:38:00.000-04:00

The SUSA poll in Minnesota looks like an outlier. The age data makes no sense at all.

New Civitas (R) North Carolina poll out:McCain 45O...

2008-06-17T14:19:00.000-04:00

New Civitas (R) North Carolina poll out:

McCain 45
Obama 41

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/n-c-poll-mccain-leads-obama-45-41

I read something about the current president havin...

2008-06-17T14:04:00.000-04:00

I read something about the current president having right-wing links, but I'm frankly skeptical of that. I think the reality is likely quite different: The NPC is genuinely pro-freedom of expression, and the more controversial someone is, the more likely they are to dig in their heels.

That must be why they've had James "Fortunate Son" Hatfield, Noam Chomsky, and Molly Ivins there so frequently over the years. Oh, wait, they haven't.

(Note: Chomsky has indeed spoken at a National Press Club -- the one in Australia.)

The Ohio party ID discrepancy could be partially e...

2008-06-17T14:00:00.000-04:00

The Ohio party ID discrepancy could be partially explained simply by the hotly contested primary. Both Obama and Clinton had significant GOTV and VR efforts there a couple months ago, while the GOP didn't.

On the issue of cell phones, I'm not totally sure who does cell phone polling, but I've been called by Gallup on my phone before for a poll.