Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama and the Youth Vote

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2009-10-08T06:40:30.558-04:00

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2009-09-15T02:12:49.544-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:18:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:18:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T22:10:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T20:37:00.000-05:00

PeteKent ahhh...no./nice troll though

2008-08-12T03:11:00.000-04:00

PeteKent ahhh...no.

/nice troll though

More or less he is yesterday’s news to this fickle...

2008-08-11T21:31:00.000-04:00

More or less he is yesterday’s news to this fickle group and while they may give an edge to him, the over 50 crowd who we know will vote, will vote in force for McCain.

You don't seem to be particularly knowledgeable in this field, but I would expect even you, Pete Kent, to know that this group is anything but fickle in swing states, where it accounts for a very significant portion of the vote.

Also, you will note that Obama has won the Iraq debate and he won it the moment that Iraq's President specifically endorsed the Obama plan for Iraq. Last we saw McCain talk about Iraq, he was forced to admit that Obama's timetable for withdrawal was an excellent idea that the government and people of Iraq were in complete agreement with.

Finally, even you should be able to find the myriad of August polls that show Obama with an almost unheard-of 40 point advantage (domination) with the younger voters who will make up 1/4 of all votes in the toss-up states.

As a Kos-head that has giddily followed your rise ...

2008-08-11T12:20:00.000-04:00

As a Kos-head that has giddily followed your rise since the primaries...

I went out and bought a paper copy!

Good times.

Interesting how the Stalinists come out and attack...

2008-08-11T11:03:00.000-04:00

Interesting how the Stalinists come out and attack Nate for using allowing himself to appeal in print in a proscribed journal.

To the substance of his point, I think it is folly to reason from the uptick in enthusiasm and voting in the Democratic primaries to the General election. Young people come in many stripes, and there is a large segment of them that are conservative. 100s of thousands of them in uniform prove that point.

For many of the young, they simply don't care that much. I think Obama was a fad and his appeal has greatly faded. The war issue is over and as we have won, he has lost, so the anti-war youth vote no longer remains to be courted, but rather ignored.

As far as the other issues go, Obama and his tire gauge offers nothing to a young person who must use half a paycheck to pay for a week's worth of gas.

More or less he is yesterday’s news to this fickle group and while they may give an edge to him, the over 50 crowd who we know will vote, will vote in force for McCain.

Nate,So the million dollar question is...Are you g...

2008-08-11T06:59:00.000-04:00

Nate,

So the million dollar question is...

Are you going to factor ground organization (field offices, number of volunteers, even ad buys, etc.) and attempt to estimate turnout using empirical methods for your projections?

It would be bad ass if you could, but you know you need to tread carefully in those waters. I think if you create a really low-level analysis with regression coefficients you might be able to factor these variables into your predictions, making them even closer to the real likely outcome.

Plus, I have some suspicion that this is already your plan since you are ruthlessly ambitious and you have been presenting us with its framework in your last few posts.

:-)

Obama is the Mac to John McCain's PC.Does that mak...

2008-08-11T00:45:00.000-04:00

Obama is the Mac to John McCain's PC.

Does that make Bob Barr Linux?

The primary percentage increases are obviously uns...

2008-08-10T21:52:00.000-04:00

The primary percentage increases are obviously unsustainable. There are really two groups of youth. Engaged and politically active ones. Disengaged and disinterested ones. Of course this applies to everyone, but I tend to think most older people tend to fall somewhere in the middle where youth are likely to be on the extremes. Obviously the engaged ones will vote in both the primary and general. The disengaged didn't vote in the primary. It will be harder to get them to vote in the general.

I think the youth vote will increase this time. I'm not sure it will increase as much as some of us want to believe it will.

I am in a non-competitive state that does not even...

2008-08-10T21:47:00.000-04:00

I am in a non-competitive state that does not even have a Senatorial election this time. Quite a few of the 18 year olds that work for me asked me how to register to vote. I almost think Nate may be underestimating youth turnout this year. Not that my anecdotal evidence is in any way comparable to the method that he uses.

I'd say youth vote generally goes democrat for man...

2008-08-10T21:13:00.000-04:00

I'd say youth vote generally goes democrat for many reasons. Youth are generally more tolerant of differences, more liberal over-all, much more connected than older generations, and much more intelligent than we give many of them credit for.

The Democratic brand tends to appeal more to younger voters for many of those reasons. I've been voting mostly democrat since I was 18. My first election was 2000. I've voted a republican here and there for local elections, and several independents, but mostly democrat.

They just represent me more.

MN writes:Did you know there is a kill switch buil...

2008-08-10T21:00:00.000-04:00

MN writes:

Did you know there is a kill switch built into the iPhone that apple can use to flood it with Malware?

MN, you ought to draw a better distinction between information and paranoia.

The on-line magazine Apple Insider recently took up this issue. According to this article from last Wednesday:

Apple has so far not exercised any of its revocation powers. Despite having removed apps from sale in the store, the company has yet to disable any apps that have been installed by users. A test item on the unauthorized apps list Zdziarski discovered is described as "malicious," suggesting that the Cupertino-based company behind the list is at least currently interested more in stamping out threats to its customers than it is policing the software on users' phones.

Theoretically the kill switch 'could' be used to flood a user's iPhone with malware, but why would Apple do something like that? It makes much more sense to assume that Apple has a nifty device for removing malware from the device of someone whose application software was infected.

olberove said... "Page 2 of that article has an er...

2008-08-10T20:50:00.000-04:00

olberove said...
"Page 2 of that article has an error, Nathan- needs to say "we probably won't know until election day" -you're missing the negative there.

Wow! I thought that was what editors were for!

I am really surprised that the Daily News comes up on top of the Post in that list. I don't spend much time in NYC except for Manhattan, and there you would get the idea that the NY Post beats everything. Most people I know read it just for sports though. That survey must have been taken around Feb or Mar, when there's no baseball or football games.

Why does everyone assume that the youth vote goes ...

2008-08-10T20:49:00.000-04:00

Why does everyone assume that the youth vote goes democrat? I am a 21year old black college student voting for McCain.

I understand that most young voters go democrat(blame the media and Hollywood on this one) and most black voters are going for Obama but not me.

Sorry, but just because your acquaintances include...

2008-08-10T20:38:00.000-04:00

Sorry, but just because your acquaintances include a large group of liars doesn't demonstrate the Bradley effect. The extent of its presence in the current election cycle is still very much subject to conflicting evidence.

The only thing undercounted right now is the Bradl...

2008-08-10T20:28:00.000-04:00

The only thing undercounted right now is the Bradley Effect! Three people I know were asked by a pollster in the last 3 weeks a question they were not truthful about.

In the end, you can say this and that and these and those are undercounted, but everyone and their mother knows the big thing is the Bradley Effect, and it is in full effect this election cycle!

Oops. Just found the problem. Nate's article focus...

2008-08-10T20:18:00.000-04:00

Oops. Just found the problem. Nate's article focuses on 18-24 year olds. The Pew data uses 18-29 year olds. Pay your money and take your choice about who constitutes "youth." I suspect that Nate and I have different perspectives on that question.

Nate, One possible correction. You indicate that y...

2008-08-10T20:12:00.000-04:00

Nate,

One possible correction. You indicate that younger voter turnout bottomed out in 2000. I was under the impression that the low point was 1996 with significant gains in both 2000 and 2004. Data from Pew Research supports that claim.

http://www.pewtrusts.org/news_room_detail.aspx?id=17696

Page 2 of that article has an error, Nathan- needs...

2008-08-10T20:04:00.000-04:00

Page 2 of that article has an error, Nathan- needs to say "we probably won't know until election day" -you're missing the negative there.

Regarding Ben´s observation, maybe it does wonders...

2008-08-10T19:59:00.000-04:00

Regarding Ben´s observation, maybe it does wonders to the youth vote to increase the number of swing states....

I wonder what´s the reason why turnout of older people is universally higher than youth turn-out. The 18-21 voters of 1972 are the 54-57 voters of today, and so there are many people that didn´t vote back then, but they vote now when turnout in these age groups is above 60%... it seems voting is a behaviour pattern you get taught while you get older - it´s a "tradition". The youth only votes when they perceive their vote to be important.

Not Mac/PC again. LAME.If I didn't want to ever pl...

2008-08-10T19:31:00.000-04:00

Not Mac/PC again. LAME.

If I didn't want to ever play any game ever I would use a Mac. PC's are easy to upgrade and change to your liking unlike the extremely heavy-handed proprietary stance of apple, not to mention their intellectual property brutality.

Did you know there is a kill switch built into the iPhone that apple can use to flood it with Malware?