Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Penultimate Alaska Update; Uncalled Congressional ...

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2009-10-02T05:39:59.436-04:00

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2009-08-28T02:51:57.526-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:36:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:13:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:13:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T02:41:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:31:00.000-05:00

Check the numbers again. Belich is 2374 votes ahea...

2008-11-18T17:32:00.000-05:00

Check the numbers again. Belich is 2374 votes ahead of Stevens. That is also greater than the .5% line for an automatic state funded recount.

Election Over.

http://elect.alaska.net/data/results.htm
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/08general/data/results.htm

Begich's lead up to 2374...it's over.

2008-11-18T17:14:00.000-05:00

Begich's lead up to 2374...it's over.

Both McClintock and Brown are attending the freshm...

2008-11-18T16:59:00.000-05:00

Both McClintock and Brown are attending the freshman House orientation? Wow, that's got to be awkward. Hopefully they're not seated next to each other.

@ silent cal: ..."half the [Senate] membership be...

2008-11-18T16:49:00.000-05:00

@ silent cal: ..."half the [Senate] membership being twice her age..."

But Cal... she does really really well with men twice her age.

It's Not Sexist To Ask...

Palin's High Heels Enchant Cruising Republican Pundits

Does anyone have any idea why Alaska counts some ...

2008-11-18T15:00:00.000-05:00

Does anyone have any idea why Alaska counts some of the ballots and then waits a day or two before resuming the counting?

The concept of counting absentee ballots doesn't seem to be that complicated. Why do they have to take a day or two off after every day they count?

Nate- nice to see you on Maddow with Arianna. A l...

2008-11-18T14:06:00.000-05:00

Nate- nice to see you on Maddow with Arianna. A little critique: try saying, "Thank You, Arianna." "Thank You, Rachel." instead of your Chicagoan "Yeah, thanks." Aside from that, the UberNerd Chic is great. Manners count, though.

Believe it or not, you are now part of the political media game. People respect the hell out of you. This is great news for everyone. While I am not suggesting you start to act like a politician, I would suggest that you pay attention to the delivery of the message. This doesn't mean a $400 haircut and makeover, or going to Charm School, it just means mind your p's and q's (remember the principle in Ferris Bueller). Many in the pre-Web generation pay attention to that stuff.

I say this only because you have powerful information in your statistics driven mind- I think you said it yourself- 538.com was the reason no one gave Drudge much credence this year (hallaluah). We really need to keep converting people to the reality-based perspective, and you are central to that process. Every time I come this site, it just tickles me- and I am far from a statistics geek, yet this entire ride is making me one: I did a fair amount of cut'n paste from here and Media Matters onto Fox and other less-than-truth oriented outlets (to be, ahem, polite) to counteract the RWSM (Right Wing Smear Machine).

I think we are seeing the wedding of statistics to message in our Web 2.5 world. The "p's and q's" are more a message issue, yet they are equally important, not fluff.

Gonna plug again for http://ourkarlrove.com and http://betweenthecolumns.com

Thank you, thank you very much, Nate.

my question is without the Senate path towards a 2...

2008-11-18T12:01:00.000-05:00

my question is without the Senate path towards a 2012 rekindling of the great Sarah debauchery what else will allow her to keep her perch in the party?

Palin doesn't need to be in the Senate to maintain a high profile. In fact, being associated with DC is ususally a negative for a presidential candidate. She can "write" a book, do Sunday morning news shows, travel abroad, do speaking engagements, raise funds for Republicans (and political favors later for herself), etc. She's much better positioned for a presidential run than just about anyone else. She just needs to maintain her fervent base and become more knowledgeabe on foreign affairs and national issues. If the environment looks right in 2012, she could run again. More likely, she waits until 2016 when every Republican with presidential aspirations will run. I'm confident we have not seen the last of her and I would not misunderestimate her.

@judas_priest:If that religious goober Wm Jennings...

2008-11-18T12:00:00.000-05:00

@judas_priest:

If that religious goober Wm Jennings Bryant were alive today, he'd be on prozac and be named Mike Hucakbee.

Huh, Kilroy is really that close?I should call my ...

2008-11-18T11:53:00.000-05:00

Huh, Kilroy is really that close?

I should call my friend; he's her communications director. Poor guy probably hasn't slept in two weeks.

"In California's 4th House district, Republican To...

2008-11-18T11:48:00.000-05:00

"In California's 4th House district, Republican Tom McClintock leads Democrat Charlie Brown by 622 votes with roughly 25,000 absentee and provisional ballots left to be counted. Both men are attending freshman House member orientation."

1. The preprinted t-shirts and hats which say, "Super Bowl Champions" of the teams which lost;

2. The prewritten speeches of actors and actresses nominated for an Academy Award who lost;

3. The four days of Freshman Orientation for the guy who loses the recount and never gets to be a Congressman.

Regarding inexperienced congressmen running for Pr...

2008-11-18T11:09:00.000-05:00

Regarding inexperienced congressmen running for President, nobody mentioned William Jennings Bryan, who served two terms in Congress (1891-95) from Nebraska, ran for the Senate and lost (1894) and at age 36, became the Democratic presidential nominee in 1896.

He ran as a populist, having beaten the eastern party establishment, winning over the convention through his famous "Cross of Gold" speech. McKinley beat him that year and again in 1900. He was also nominated and lost in 1908.

He was Secretary of State under Wilson and ended his days fighting the teaching of evolution, serving as the chief prosecutor in the Scopes "monkey trial." He died a few days after the trial.

kilroy's situation is really better than you sugge...

2008-11-18T10:04:00.000-05:00

kilroy's situation is really better than you suggest. Two years ago the provisional count in the same district netted her more than 2000 at the margin. Barring some weird change, she should easily win this. That requires countering R lawyers who are desperately trying to interfere with the provisional count, for obvious reasons. Kilroy is asking for $. It's an excellent investment, because in this district she should be able to keep that seat for a long time. head for ActBlue to help NOW./mbw

Maybe it's just me, but isn't "less than even mone...

2008-11-18T09:58:00.000-05:00

Maybe it's just me, but isn't "less than even money" an ambiguous term? When a horse pays less than even money, say 3/5, it's an overwhelming favorite.

I doubt Palin has any interest in the Senate. It ...

2008-11-18T09:14:00.000-05:00

I doubt Palin has any interest in the Senate. It doesn't seem like her scene, what with the endless speechifying and half the membership being twice her age. Maybe the House, but I'd bet she doesn't run for anything except re-election as Governor.

The Winch asked who was the last inexperienced Hou...

2008-11-18T08:58:00.000-05:00

The Winch asked who was the last inexperienced House member to get a primary nomination? Abe Lincoln, although he wasn't even in the House at the time- he was a complete no body. Of course there is a Pacific Ocean of difference between Lincoln and Palin and the times and methods of nominations were completely different than today. But he was probably the single most inexperienced President we've ever had. Goes to show you that experience is completely overrated. That why the debate about who had more experience, Obama or Palin, was a complete waste of time. Obama has intangibles that Palin clearly doesn't have. Intelligence and temperment are far more important for the job, IMHO.

I cant decide if its better to have Palin in the S...

2008-11-18T08:30:00.000-05:00

I cant decide if its better to have Palin in the Senate where the repubs can see what a total fool she is on a daily basis, or to have her as Gov where they can track her stupid moves there. Although I understand those who would like nothing better than for her to run against Obama in '12 (a SURE loss!) I for one dont want to listen to the stupid cow for 4 more years!

fileyna--what happens when I try to get my tax info together

hey don't knock the Rams. At least they've won the...

2008-11-18T08:21:00.000-05:00

hey don't knock the Rams. At least they've won the Super Bowl in the last century. :)

It seems likely that both Ted Stevens and Young wi...

2008-11-18T08:04:00.000-05:00

It seems likely that both Ted Stevens and Young will lose their offices to criminal investigations and convictions. It's easy to see why 538 would step up and assume Palin will take the latter posting if Steven's (presumptive) defeat prevents her from taking the former.

However - Palin herself merits investigation and may be more likely to replace these men in the docket than in the Senate.

Her ties to Veco seem as peculiar as Stevens'. And the nation is still waiting to find out who paid for her house and how much overlap those contractors have with the contractors to whom she gave the work on her $12.5 million Wasilla sports center... after the house was done.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Penultimate Alaska Update; Uncalled Congressional ...

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Check the numbers again. Belich is 2374 votes ahea...

Begich's lead up to 2374...it's over.

Both McClintock and Brown are attending the freshm...

@ silent cal: ..."half the [Senate] membership be...

Does anyone have any idea why Alaska counts some ...

Nate- nice to see you on Maddow with Arianna. A l...

my question is without the Senate path towards a 2...

@judas_priest:If that religious goober Wm Jennings...

Huh, Kilroy is really that close?I should call my ...

"In California's 4th House district, Republican To...

Regarding inexperienced congressmen running for Pr...

kilroy's situation is really better than you sugge...

Maybe it's just me, but isn't "less than even mone...

I doubt Palin has any interest in the Senate. It ...

The Winch asked who was the last inexperienced Hou...

I cant decide if its better to have Palin in the S...

hey don't knock the Rams. At least they've won the...

It seems likely that both Ted Stevens and Young wi...

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