Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Equal Time

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T07:28:58.611-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-11T02:18:00.355-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-14T01:56:00.000-05:00

I'm going to be as clear as I can be because I int...

2008-07-16T18:53:00.000-04:00

I'm going to be as clear as I can be because I intend to say this once: Do not respond to me.

Most of you are aware that my posts are intellectually dishonest and yet you respond anyway. If you are willing to show off your sophistication by knocking around intellectual low-hanging-fruit just to please your own vanity, then trolls like me win.

I mentioned above that I hoped you found my posts haunting. I'd like to rephrase that: I hope you find it annoying. If I can get people's energy devoted to demonstrating the stupidity of my theses (which is a waste of time as it is self-evident) then that's a victory for me and McCain. If I can wear people out by making them walk the baby steps of demonstrating that I'm essentially blaming Obama for being black, then that's a victory for me and John McCain.

We want you distracted, annoyed, worn out, and demoralized. How better to keep the Republican party's boot on your necks and the body bags coming in from Iraq?

Do not reply to me. Do not reply to this message. Act as if I am not here.

As an older voter very interested in this election...

2008-07-16T11:59:00.000-04:00

As an older voter very interested in this election. I found this website and have followed it for months. I liked the comments as they were into more of what Nate is about... the analytical side of all of this. The conversation with the help of the Mc Cain/ Bush worshiping crowd if fairly unbearable and I was at one time able to glean information here. Why can this not be a polling information place is there not plenty of other conservative places where people can go to curse Obama? Seems that Huff Po had an article that listed all those blogs. They should be attractive to those looking for like minded people without the skills to read or write of much except rote allegations. There is much to learn in this election. It is hystorical and we can change our country back to where we once were. Being respectful was something we were taught as kids. let us read about the real things

The whole thing supports my thesis as relayed else...

2008-07-16T02:44:00.000-04:00

The whole thing supports my thesis as relayed elsewhere that all of this race and Muslim baiting is enervating the public and they will soon tire of the baggage that Obama will bring to the Presidency.... We want a leader who can lead us, not someone who will be constantly moored in squabbles over his race and ancestry.

pete kent is exactly right. The American people are sick and tired of watching Obama deal with all the right-wing bullshit. Running on the Democratic ticket was a major blunder on his part.

The Democrats always seem to be mired in conflict with mudslinging, corrupt politicians and I think the voters are going to say "enough" this year and bring about a Republican landslide.

"Liberal = Fascist thing is nothing new and was re...

2008-07-15T23:11:00.000-04:00

"Liberal = Fascist thing is nothing new and was recently the subject of an important new book analyzing how anti-democratic and, yes, fascistic FDR was."

Jonah Goldberg's writing is "important?" It'd never even be published if his mom weren't Lucianne.

Whine, whitey, whine.The whole core philosophy of ...

2008-07-15T22:12:00.000-04:00

Whine, whitey, whine.

The whole core philosophy of the "whitey" smear is disgusting. It is pure racism to believe that after four hundred years of slavery, lynching, flogging, apartheid and oppression that there's something wrong with African-Americans who act anyway other than grateful for the treatment they have received at the hands of white America. African-Americans should be mad, they have a right to be mad. If I didn't think Michelle Obama wasn't a little mad about racism, that would make her a doormat. This is a racist country. It's slowing getting better but we have an incredibly long way to go.

Pete:The thought that they, on average, have a leg...

2008-07-15T19:37:00.000-04:00

Pete:
The thought that they, on average, have a leg up is completely insane. It's that view that is completely out of line.

If it were easier for a black man to get ahead in America, why is a white man always President? Why are they the majority of the CEOs and executives? You purport views that are contrary to the facts. Evidence clearly suggests that being a white man is the easiest path to success in this country. You choose to subtly explain it by implying inferiority. It's disgusting.

Dan Reihl: "But much of that came from Hillary and...

2008-07-15T19:21:00.000-04:00

Dan Reihl: "But much of that came from Hillary and Co. not the right."

False dichotomy, a typical form of right wing dishonesty.

Jim S:I am not here to persuade. We all have our ...

2008-07-15T19:02:00.000-04:00

Jim S:

I am not here to persuade. We all have our minds made up here!

You may think my comment or reasoning to be dispicable, but there are many in the AA community who like the leg up they have been given and don't want Barack Obama pulling the ladder up behind him.

Indeed him himself has suggested that affirmative action needs to be re-examined so that privileged AAs like his daughters won't benefit.

Again, don't kill the messenger, you may learn something from him!

Pete:"4) There is a segment of the AA population t...

2008-07-15T18:44:00.000-04:00

Pete:

"4) There is a segment of the AA population that fears his election b/c it will forever end the culture of entitlement and the underpinnings of affirmative action on which many of them falsely believe they depend."

How dare you. This is the despicable stuff I was talking about. You are a racist, flat and simple and/or you will stoop to using other people's racist nature to get their vote. Either way, if you want to claim that you don't make personal attacks, yet you will pin these feelings on an entire segment of the American population, then you write with skill that belies your utter ignorance. You make 3 lucent points and then come live with this as number 4? It's so far out there, the opinions can't really be true, so how much of it do you believe? The people whose votes you are trying to persuade with your hate speech (i.e. the ones that believe it) are not the type to comment on blogs about projecting the outcome of the election, so please just do yourself and your country a big favor and stop spreading opinions you can't possibly believe to be true.

It's a despicable act and it's shameful and whether or not you recognize it to be true, the personal attacks you are receiving as a result are the product of the utterly disgusting views you hold. If you believe what you type, you are the lowest of the low and attempting to capitalize on the ignorance of hateful people for political gain (yours or someone you desire to have it) has unfortunately been the status quo for way too long. I do apologize if you feel attacked, but your general attitude and behavior has been tolerated for too long. You simply do not deserve a voice if that's the manner in which you use it. Go stand on a street corner where people can more easily ignore you. This is where people come for intelligent discourse and your presence disrupts that.

At any rate, the reality is our country is residing on the tolerant and intelligent side of things right now. The majority strongly condemns racism, so your tactics are unlikely to work. It's just annoying.

I am sure that Pete Kent, troll though he is, did ...

2008-07-15T18:38:00.000-04:00

I am sure that Pete Kent, troll though he is, did not post that last thing. lol

Obama's black support is ERODING now that the Amer...

2008-07-15T18:20:00.001-04:00

Obama's black support is ERODING now that the American people learn that Barack Muhammed Hussein Jihadist O'bama is a Communist Muslim.

I expect by Sunday that McCain will have won the election from early votes by 75 points.

I agree with Juris and would peg the over/under at...

2008-07-15T18:20:00.000-04:00

I agree with Juris and would peg the over/under at 95%. The turnout will be the variable.

See my earlier post @4:53.

If you know anything at all about American politic...

2008-07-15T18:16:00.000-04:00

If you know anything at all about American politics, you'd know that there's not a snowball's chance in hell that Obama will receive less than 90% of the African American vote in any state. Anybody who thinks otherwise is engaging in fantasy.

@Eli,Cal Thomas did call it a "terrorist fist jab"...

2008-07-15T18:06:00.000-04:00

@Eli,

Cal Thomas did call it a "terrorist fist jab" on Human Events. He very quickly edited it out. I found the original version of the article in Google Cache, but I'm sure it's gone now.

To clarify, this was in the article itself. A whole paragraph was removed. It was not a reader comment.

Regarding the numbers of black support, could the ...

2008-07-15T18:00:00.000-04:00

Regarding the numbers of black support, could the latest Jesse Jackson (born in SC) incident play a role in it? I wish I knew more about it, but maybe the black community of South Carolina is still rooted in an older, more controversial tradition.
Kerry´s support seems roughly even across the nation, there are spikes in the heavily politicized Washington D.C. and the Clinton-State Arkansas, while Washington state might have a totally different black "mindset" and Oklahoma could be an outlier (or perhaps the evangelical movement was more important to blacks there than the civil rights movement).
So, while Kerry counted on the traditional democratic support from the black minority, Obama might be held to a different standard by Blacks themselves.

Hey Pete,(From Obama's CNN interview commenting on...

2008-07-15T17:53:00.001-04:00

Hey Pete,

(From Obama's CNN interview commenting on the cartoon):

"It's a cartoon ... and that's why we've got the First Amendment," Obama said. "And I think the American people are probably spending a little more time worrying about what's happening with the banking system and the housing market and what's happening in Iraq and Afghanistan, than a cartoon. So I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it."

Soo...we can expect your vote this fall, right?

Re Obama's vote among AAs:While I do find Obama's ...

2008-07-15T17:53:00.000-04:00

Re Obama's vote among AAs:

While I do find Obama's poll numbers in SC to be surprising, they may reveal something of a potential weakness in his candidacy.

For years folks have assumed, mostly correctly, that the AA vote is monolithically Democrat and in a year when we have the first AA nominee it would be overwhelmingly so. Indeed the recent Quinnipiac poll bears this out.

But one summer does not make a swallow, and one poll does not forecast an election.

At the risk of starting another firestorm, Obama confronts problems within the AA community:

1) He has given them precious little individual attention;
2) He has lectured and looked down on young men in that community;
3) He is running as the product of a white family from Kansas and has ostensibly run away from his AA roots;
4) There is a segment of the AA population that fears his election b/c it will forever end the culture of entitlement and the underpinnings of affirmative action on which many of them falsely believe they depend.

Jesse Jackson was widely criticized for his “hot mike” statements last week, but it would be a mistake to dismiss them out of hand or as an isolated rant.

One thing this election has revealed is how culturally and intellectually divergent large segments of the AA community are from the white power structure. It was that glimpse inside "the most segregated hour in America".

What the Revered Wright revelations made plain is that there is a lot of aberrant thinking in the Black community and its values and thought processes are vastly different from those of the majority culture.

Who among us would have taken it as Gospel that Black people would buy into the notion that AIDS was invented by the US government to kill them? That America itself was to be blamed for 911. And that Black separatism was a worthy goal?

Until this year, I would have thought such views were fringe views and representative at best of a tiny sliver of Black thought.

Now I see that there is much wider acceptance of such views and a willingness to embrace figures that were shadowy or outright enemies of this nation (Farrakhan, Quadafi).

Reverend Wright dismissed Barack Obama as just another politician willing to say anything to get elected. I suspect he still remains on the van of a significant movement and many who follow him are not 100% behind Obama.

Again, I doubt this polling deficit will hold up and AAs will return to the fold, but their enthusiasm is open to question, and turnout may disappoint.

It did in Philadelphia during the primary.

If I was running this blog I would make membership...

2008-07-15T17:46:00.000-04:00

If I was running this blog I would make membership a requirement for commenting. I did this on mine.This blog would be better if it did not succumb to the current invasion.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/03/poll.bl...

2008-07-15T17:37:00.000-04:00

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/03/poll.black.president/index.html

76% of Americans say that America is ready for a black president. The number would be higher if Blacks themselves wouldn´t be so pessimistic about it.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/06/30/powell_is_favorite_in_online_vp_poll/

The online poll that had Colin Powell as the favorite VP pick on either side of the aisle. While an online poll probably still plays to a younger, more tolerant audience it is still striking that a ticket of 2 blacks is considered.

As Mike H. already said it, Colin Powell was a people´s favorite presidential candidate. My own source for that, I have to admit, is the first book of Michael Moore.
One also has to applaud the current government for having included Gen. Powell and Ms. Rice in their cabinet. I think it has made the issue of race much less controversial, and the possibility of "constant race baiting" a thing of the past.

OK, I'll do my best to just ignore the useless mud...

2008-07-15T17:19:00.001-04:00

OK, I'll do my best to just ignore the useless mudslinging and urge you to take a look at some hard numbers...

I'd like to continue the discussion started by Tom and ajb way up in this thread about Obama's strangely low numbers among African Americans, in the new SC poll as well as in several previous national and state polls.

It indeed seems strange that Obama gets no more than 77% of African Americans in SC, considering the fact that Kerry got 85%. I find it highly unlikely that African-American voters who supported Kerry would find Obama too liberal.

Take a look at some of Kerry's 2004 exit poll numbers among African-American voters:

National: 88
DC 97
AR 94
TN 91
AL 91
LA 90
MS 90
MO 90
NY 90
IL 89
MD 89
GA 88
KY 87
MN 87
VA 87
FL 86
NV 86
NC 85
SC 85
OH 84
PA 84
TX 83
WV 83
NJ 82
CA 81
WA 73
OK 72

Two observations/questions:
1. In just two of these states Kerry's share of African Americans were in the 70's, where Obama now seems to be in many polls. (The 2004 WA AA sample ought to have been around 40-45 people, and OK might be an outlier as well.) I would have imagined that almost all African Americans that came out for Kerry (and many that didn't) would have made their minds up by now, supporting a viable African American candidate for president, and I can't really see any explanation why they haven't. Can you? Or can you find a likely source of error in the polling?

2. Kerry's span, ignoring the outliers, seem to have ranged from around 80 to around 90 percent. This could seem like rather consistent numbers. But looking at it the other way, it means that Bush's share of the AA vote is subject to huge variations. And it doesn't seem to correlate with the overall results in the state. It's about twice as large in CA than in NY, both solidly blue states, and more than twice as large in WV than in AR, both clearly red states. If any pattern can be seen, it seems to be that the Deep South states AL, LA and MS all have rather high numbers for Kerry. Is there an obvious general explanation for the other variations that I'm simply missing? And can the state-to-state variations in AA voting from 2004 be expected to be consistent over time?

OK, I'll do my best to just ignore the useless mud...

2008-07-15T17:19:00.000-04:00

It will never cease to amuse me how loud mouthed t...

2008-07-15T17:18:00.000-04:00

It will never cease to amuse me how loud mouthed trolls sniveling about their "freedom of speech!" being banned and crying "censorship!" fail to grasp even the most basic of distinctions between privately run websites and public institutions.

Nate's website is not the US government. It can enact any user guidelines it desires and ban commenters if it sees fit. This does not mean your 'freedom of speech' has been violated.

Though I suppose grasping this kind of grade school civics level of differentiation would get in the way of their bloviating tantrums about what 'Chinese communists' we are (but wait! - I thought we were freedom hating fascists! Are we Nazis or Leninists? It's so hard to tell anymore!). For a group which holds so many cherished high school freshmen Ayn Randian ideals of personal responsibility, they sure do enjoy playing the oppressed victim.