Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota Recount: Number of Discrepancies May Be ...

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I myself did a lot of number crunching on the NORC...

2008-11-13T17:22:00.000-05:00

I myself did a lot of number crunching on the NORC data when it was released in late 2005. Nate's writing shows that the net margin in favor of Gore in Florida among the 2217 undervotes in these 37 optical scan counties was +116.

The NORC project also looked at overvotes and determined how many of those could be counted. These primarily consisted of ballots where the voter filled in the bubble for either Gore or Bush and then also bubbled the write-in and wrote in the name Gore or Bush. The intent of the voter is clearly discernible on these disqualified ballots. Gore had a net gain on these "overvotes" greater than 537, the official statewide margin for Bush.

Therefore, if no one had ever worried at all about the punch-card ballots (thus eliminating all of the hassles about hanging chads), a simple hand recount of the optical scan ballots in Florida would have given Gore the victory.

Of course that is just what the Florida judge was about to order when the SCOTUS halted the recount.

david -- what the heck did we ever do to you? gene...

2008-11-12T20:41:00.000-05:00

david -- what the heck did we ever do to you? generalities are lame.

some of us here in Minnesota may not care for either of these candidates but you've got to respect the process.

I personally observed a 1600-vote "audit" of the paper ballots (compared to the machine scanned totals) today. 3 races were compared and at the end of the day, Franken was +1 -- a lightly marked "undervote" where the intent was clear.

no matter the outcome, at least every vote has a paper trail and is counted.

My contempt for the people of Minnesota is bottoml...

2008-11-12T19:17:00.000-05:00

My contempt for the people of Minnesota is bottomless. They deserve Franken. They deserve slime.

To answer beanocook: I agree Nate has done a fairl...

2008-11-12T02:03:00.000-05:00

To answer beanocook: I agree Nate has done a fairly poor job of explaining why Franken should get a higher percentage of undervotes than "normal" votes. He is however, probably correct: Most of Franken's votes came in the the bigger counties, with more undervotes bc they're bigger. Franken won those counties by a much higher percentage that the statewide average. An important additional question is whether we should expect Franken to have WON more than that weighted percentage in his best counties. I've seen no evidence that that is the case (other than the 2000 Florida analysis, but it's anyones guess if that should hold true for MN), but it's a testable hypothesis.
There are other logical mistakes being made here concerning "machine errors". First, many machine errors should be correctable and thus shouldn't be discounted. Second, even if machine errors ARE random (no reason to assume they're NOT), that doesn't mean there's no advantage if they ARE random. Example: consider Lake Woebegone county where candidate A won 60% of the votes and candidate B won 40%. If uncounted machine errors are random, candidate A will gain 20% MORE of those votes that are corrected, on average. Machine error votes should be treated just as other "undervotes".

How come Nate doesn't explain why exactly Franken ...

2008-11-11T23:11:00.000-05:00

How come Nate doesn't explain why exactly Franken would tend to get more of the undervotes? I want some details on that..

Why? Doesn't make sense? I thought Democrats were smarter? Guess not. That kind of sucks.

I think the answer to William's question "why woul...

2008-11-11T22:00:00.000-05:00

I think the answer to William's question "why would it decrease Rep votes?" is that the graphic (clickable link) denotes the margin rather than vote totals. Only the winners of each race are shown, so Coleman seeing his 2002 margin go down by over 8,000 votes could have been due to his opponent gaining many such votes. That was the Wellstone plane-crash year, which may have led to extra confusion among those not voting for Coleman, even apart from what the graphic says about that race using non-conventional ballots.

I.e., the graphic probably uniformly shows that double-checking yields more votes for Democrats---likely because more Reps are better-heeled. Hopefully the provisional-ballot system will lead to more-robust data on how lower-income voters are more "vulnerable", and lead to true reform.

WV "unrepro": Our rights are endangered by ballot systems whose results are unreproducible.

The number of INTENTIONAL undervotes in the MN Sen...

2008-11-11T21:56:00.000-05:00

The number of INTENTIONAL undervotes in the MN Senate is, and will always be, unknowable. The number of ACCIDENTAL undervotes (either machine error or human error, both could be correctable) can be easily estimated by assuming that the total number of undervotes in the Presidential race is a close approximation to that of the Senate race. The obvious assumption is that very, very few people intentionally didn't mark a ballot in the Prez race. If the 2000 Florida percentages hold, then 32% of those will be correctable, leaving us about 3238. That's about half of what I estimated a day or so after the election. One could do a little better by just taking the undervote percentage in the prez race (about 0.35, which is very low and probably about as good as anyone in the country has done)and then taking 32% of that but it's a fairly small change. The biggest unknown in this is the fraction of correctable ballots. Let's arbitrarily assume that the error on that 32% is plus/minus 16% and that gives us a range of about 1600-4800 (first lesson in any experiment, always quote your errors, even if they are weakly constrained).
The next steps in the analysis are obvious but fraught with larger errors.

An interesting graphic: http://images.publicradio....

2008-11-11T21:15:00.000-05:00

An interesting graphic: http://images.publicradio.org/content/2008/11/11/20081111_votemargins_33.gif

I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I *think* it supports the idea that looking more closely tends to increase Dem votes (but why would it decrease Rep votes?). But since that chart is only of changes between election and certification, can we extrapolate it to a recount? MPR just puts it out there and doesn't say anything about it.

Barack Obama made a colossal blunder on his way in...

2008-11-11T20:18:00.000-05:00

Barack Obama made a colossal blunder on his way into the Presidency yesterday when he allowed information to leak concerning the details of his meeting with President Bush. Bush was reportedly seething over the leak. It seems President-Elect Obama does not know what is meant by “private talks”.

It casts a pall over his immediate future negotiations -- foreign or domestic – now people will go into discussions with an Obama administration with some level of doubt concerning the confidentiality of the proceedings.

Worse, the man who billed himself, at least subliminally, if not actually, on competence, as he tried to dilute the notion that he was noting more than an air-headed celebrity, is seen as having a club-footed beginning. The embarrassing disclosure of his leaky ship, now sheds on the Rahm Emmanuel pick, a less than flattering light.

Contrast Obama’s week with that of Sarah Palin. The much vilified Vice Presidential nominee has captivated the press as she has unleashed herself like no one else has done in recent history – more so even than Obama who faded to a degree after his political debut in 2004 and was not THE STORY of the post-election period as Palin currently is– at least this week.

Indeed Palin’s domination of the news cycle is benefiting Obama as it has pushed the whole story of his meet with Bush off the front pages, including the foot fault over leaking the details.

Meanwhile Palin is acquitting herself very well and has managed to go quite some distance toward rehabilitating her image. The primary impetus being the outrageous assertions that she did not know which countries comprise North America or that Africa was a continent instead of a country!

Despite Chris Matthews craven embrace of these patently false charges, they collapsed of their own weight and gave Palin an opening through which she drove the truck like force of her personality

She has more interviews, a speech and a press conference this week.

As I see it, Palin is on the upswing and is clearly the one to watch in this immediate post-election period.

When I voted in Minneapolis, we were handed pens, ...

2008-11-11T19:56:00.000-05:00

When I voted in Minneapolis, we were handed pens, the ballot, and a privacy sleeve. There are little curtained voting booths where you can mark your ballots. We colored in the oval next to the candidate's name. If you remembered to turn the ballot over, you could also vote in the judges races. The paper ballot is then fed into the machine, and a volunteer takes back the sleeve and the pen. That's it.

My next-door neighbor, who voted for Barkley because of the "negativity" is now chagrined because she really hates Coleman, and wishes she had voted for Franken. I did not say "I told you so."

Man, these instances of voter error are puzzling. ...

2008-11-11T19:05:00.000-05:00

Man, these instances of voter error are puzzling. How does optical scan voting work in MN? Are voters simply given a ballot and a small writing surface? How else could there be such variation in the manner of marking and in the writing implements used?

Here, in Los Angeles County, we are handed a narrow paper ballot, then go to a booth, where we insert the ballot in a small device with a bunch of holes and the ballot items appearing on hinged cardboard pages, with each possible vote pointing with an arrow to a specific hole.

Each possible circle on the ballot is lined-up in place with the corresponding hole by a couple pins at the top that hold the ballot card in the correct position. There is a special inking stylus that is chained to the voting device, and the voter inserts the stylus in each hole where the voter intends to register a vote. The stylus' width matches exactly the circles on the ballot, and--when completed--the voter removes the ballot from the device. Each intended circle is, thus, perfectly filled in with the correct sort of ink.

Seems common-sense, but is that not the method and practice elsewhere?

I agree with Dave. I don't see the direct relation...

2008-11-11T18:50:00.000-05:00

I agree with Dave. I don't see the direct relation between voter error and machine error. Just because machine error is lower in Minnesota than in Florida (if indeed it is, I don't actually know but it looks possible) doesn't mean voter error is, as well. Of course the whole point is to avoid the problem of high intentionnal undervotes because it is a senate election, but you should compare machine error between the two states to have any idea whether the analysis has some grounding.

Nate, you should compare the Minnesota recount to ...

2008-11-11T17:57:00.000-05:00

Nate, you should compare the Minnesota recount to the recount four years ago in Washington state where the Republic was up initially, then dropped after a recount, and ended up losing after a second recount by 130 votes. There are quite a few similarities between the two races.

I am quickly getting to the point where I have to ...

2008-11-11T17:36:00.000-05:00

I am quickly getting to the point where I have to wonder just how long it takes Minnesota and Alaska to count some ballots. It's been a week...shouldn't we be done by now?

--This is going to be a great push toward instant-...

2008-11-11T15:48:00.000-05:00

--This is going to be a great push toward instant-runoff voting. Ramsey and Hennepin counties both had referenda on it (I don't remember the results offhand) but I'm sure it'll be on the ballot next year, and probably in effect for 2010.--

Instant runoff implies a majority vote is need to win.

Unless the entire state of MN voted for it, referenda in individual counties will have nothing to do with future Senate races.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota Recount: Number of Discrepancies May Be ...

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I myself did a lot of number crunching on the NORC...

david -- what the heck did we ever do to you? gene...

My contempt for the people of Minnesota is bottoml...

To answer beanocook: I agree Nate has done a fairl...

How come Nate doesn't explain why exactly Franken ...

I think the answer to William's question "why woul...

The number of INTENTIONAL undervotes in the MN Sen...

An interesting graphic: http://images.publicradio....

Barack Obama made a colossal blunder on his way in...

When I voted in Minneapolis, we were handed pens, ...

Man, these instances of voter error are puzzling. ...

I agree with Dave. I don't see the direct relation...

Nate, you should compare the Minnesota recount to ...

I am quickly getting to the point where I have to ...

--This is going to be a great push toward instant-...

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