Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Bubba By Numbers

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2009-10-08T06:48:02.247-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:54:32.903-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:26:00.000-05:00

BTW, all of you obamazombies who keep dissing Bill...

2008-08-13T20:50:00.000-04:00

BTW, all of you obamazombies who keep dissing Bill Clinton, the greatest President of our era, really are pathetic in trying to compare your empty suit of a candidate to someone of Clinton's caliber.
Obama isn't fit to shine Bill Clinton's shoes and people on here are acting like butter wouldn't melt in his mouth.
There's no guarantee he'll even be the nominee when this is over, so save your "messiah worship" for someone who is at least partially worthy.

The best possible VP pick would be Ed Rendell of P...

2008-08-13T20:46:00.000-04:00

The best possible VP pick would be Ed Rendell of Pa. The only thing is, he wouldn't serve as VP under anyone but Hillary Clinton.
Of course, this is the NOMINATING convention, so that very well could happen regardless of what the kool-aid drinking obamabots want to believe.
Those 75,000 fans may be celbrating Hillary's nomination, not Obama's. It would seriously piss him off to plan the whole thing, set up his coronation and somebody else get the crown without him even getting to give a speech wouldn't it? LMAO

@maxwellWell the problem is that there's nothing A...

2008-08-08T16:49:00.000-04:00

@maxwell

Well the problem is that there's nothing America hates more than a reformer politician. In other words, if a politician claims to be high-minded on some issue, the media is going to be looking as hard as it can for some way to upend that image. It's a story. On the other hand, politicians who never pretend to be anything less than rich power brokers receive much less scrutiny.

That's why an expensive haircut can help take John Edwards down but an equally ridiculously expensive pair of loafers does nothing to hurt McCain.

I agree with others that Gore most likely does not...

2008-08-08T15:44:00.000-04:00

I agree with others that Gore most likely does not want the job, but a big part of me will still keep hoping :)

I disagree that his wealth can be used against the ticket, dems could just counter with Mccains 9 or so mansions and make him look like a kypocrite.

And lastly as for my comment about taking the stage away from obama, the only situations I'm really referring to would be Hillary Clinton or Colin Powell (unrealistic as it is). The media seems to have some perverse fascination with making Clinton the center of every story, and well, if Powell was chosen it would be huge.

I know it's twisted and wrong, and I must be soft ...

2008-08-08T13:47:00.000-04:00

I know it's twisted and wrong, and I must be soft in the head, but I actually agreed with something Pete Kent wrote.

How people react to Obama's speeches depends a lot on how you react to the content.

If you are open to the message, then it seems inspiring and uplifting. If you hate the message and the messenger it seems wrong and hypocritical. You feel like somebody who "sees through" a magician's tricks while everybody else gapes in awe.

That's how I felt in 1980 listening to Reagan. I could hardly bring myself to believe that Americans could sit still and listen to such lying swill!

I was sure that 4 years of Reagan would utterly disillusion Americans too so that whoever the Democrats put up in 1984 would win in a landslide.

Well, THAT didn't happen.

Today the right-wing just can't believe people actually listen to Obama and are inspired to take action and support him as a result. They hate everything he has to say, it all sounds like "socialism" to them.

Well, get used to it. You're going to be hearing a LOT more of it over the next 4 years.

Actually on a more sympathetic note, I know how you feel. I felt that same way in 1980. You feel like a terrible disease is sweeping the country carrying everything before it. Everything you disagree with and hate is coming to power.

It feels like the end of an era, and it is.

@ Maxwell:Aah Gore, of course. First, I thought yo...

2008-08-08T13:09:00.000-04:00

@ Maxwell:

Aah Gore, of course. First, I thought you meant Bill Richardson, lol.

@ Mason:

Probably the best reason against VP Gore I have heard so far.

The thing about Gore is this:If he didn't want the...

2008-08-08T12:52:00.000-04:00

The thing about Gore is this:
If he didn't want the top job, why would he want to be number two?

If Obama actually wanted to pick Hillary as his ru...

2008-08-08T12:48:00.000-04:00

If Obama actually wanted to pick Hillary as his running mate from the beginning (an unlikely scenario), his campaign has really done a brilliant bit of misdirection. Had it seemed that Obama had merely accepted Senator Clinton as his inevitable running mate the story would have been about his relative weakness in choosing a vice-president the media thought he had to choose. Today with all the talk of Tim Kaine, Joe Biden and others Hillary comes as a surprise pick that may actually reinforce Obama's claims to have strong judgment.

> Who is exciting and inspiring yet won't take the...

2008-08-08T12:41:00.000-04:00

> Who is exciting and inspiring yet won't take the stage away from Obama?

Not even Bono himself would take the stage away from Obama. Obama's after all the biggest brand/icon in world politics.

I wonder when Gore will speak during the convention. He's certainly the far more impressive elder statesman of Clinton/Gore.

As for him and the vicepresidency, sure, he'd be the ideal candidate, but I can't see him wanting to run again for the same job. Besides, it would be a demotion considering his present status and prestige. I can't blame him for not wanting the job and think he's doing a fabulous job as a movement leader - arguably doing in that role at least as much good as he might as Veep.

I think to Cugel's point, your assessment about wh...

2008-08-08T12:40:00.000-04:00

I think to Cugel's point, your assessment about who gives the better speech, Obama or Reagan, has a lot to do with how you react to the content.

That said, you have to give Obama props for being the natural speaker, given that Reagan was an actor (if a B Movie one).

Oration is a gift. The ability to use one's speaking voice like an instrument and the judgment to manipulate it happily over resonant text is as much art as it is artifice.

Clinton had a decent speaking ability, but he came across as insincere.

A liar.

Reagan came off rehearsed.

A fake.

Obama comes across as . . . .

Me, I'd day sanctimonious. He has the touch of the preacher and the university lecturer about him. He talks to high-minded themes and sounds judgmental about them.

To some, he inspires. Others, he offends.

Whoever has the most in his corner is should win.

So it was with Reagan, so it will be with Obama.

An entire article devoted to the question "can Bil...

2008-08-08T12:19:00.000-04:00

An entire article devoted to the question "can Bill give a graceful speech at the convention?" and about 50 posts and it's like everybody fell off the turnip-truck just yesterday!

HELLO! Does NOBODY remember the 2004 Kerry Convention? Bill Clinton gave a speech there, remember? There were all of these concerns "he'll upstage the nominee", etc.

He gave a speech that was graceful and well received and was the highlight of the convention until Kerry spoke. In retrospect I remember his speech better than Kerry's "Reporting for Duty" acceptance speech.

Bill pointed out that the Bush tax cuts were great for people like him who had a lot of money, but not so great for working families. Etc. He hit all the points attacking Bush that anybody would want and he did fine. He was easy-going, laid back, funny, and made his points with style and dignity.

And then he got off the stage.

So, why should anything be different this time? He's bitter? He's a politician. He's mad at the delegates for not selecting Hillary? That's politics. He's dealt with worse in the past.

He knows how to write and deliver a speech. It will be well received and widely regarded as the best speech of the convention besides Obama's.

It will certainly upstage anything Hillary has to say. After this convention nobody will be asking "why didn't they pick Hillary." She's NO Obama and no Bill.

As for Obama. There's simply NO way Bill can deliver a better speech. Obama is a master like we haven't seen in American politics since Bobby Kennedy.

Not even Reagan can touch him. I almost think it's more the timing than anything else. America in 1980 was eager to hear the message Reagan delivered "Morning In America." The nation is now HUNGRY for the message Obama delivers "The Audacity of Hope."

As a liberal I ridiculed Reagan's speech in 1980. America loved it though. My reaction was partisan and out of step with what the vast majority of people felt.

Today all the wing-nuts are hating Obama. They'll come out and attack anything he says. And it won't matter.

Today THEY are partisan and out of step shrilly denouncing the change they hate and fear. Americans are eager to hear his message.

People actually WANT to have hope and no amount of McCain fear-mongering and attack ads are going to be able to stop it, any more than Carter's attacks on Reagan "dangerous extremist" made any difference in the end.

I am guessing you mean Al Gore.He would be my firs...

2008-08-08T11:44:00.000-04:00

I am guessing you mean Al Gore.

He would be my first choice for you all.

I can see the ads now featuring his private plane, his energy sucking mansions, the fleet of limos and now the huge house boat!

Gore is now so out of step with the country it is funny.

Funny, also how $4.00/gal gas can focus the attention of the people and make them realize we can’t afford the crock of bull and pseudo-science that the far left and the enviro-wackos have been trying to peddle for years.

Oh, man! I love the free market system: it has such a way of confounding the idiocies of certain schools of thought.

Maxwell-Did the man you're thinking of have a spea...

2008-08-08T11:42:00.000-04:00

Maxwell-
Did the man you're thinking of have a speaking part in "Bender's Big Score"?

To me the VP choice is obvious. Who is the 3rd me...

2008-08-08T11:31:00.000-04:00

To me the VP choice is obvious. Who is the 3rd member of the Clinton trifecta? Who does Bill know and respect and will be able to introduce easily? Who is exciting and inspiring yet won't take the stage away from Obama? The one candidate who is not Hillary yet beloved enough by the dems to make the rift between Obama/Clinton a distant memory, and a choice that will dominate the media cycle for weeks. A perfect choice when ENERGY is the one issue the republicans are winning on. I assume by now you can figure out who I mean....

Bill Clinton: "And in conclusion ..." And the 19...

2008-08-08T11:07:00.000-04:00

Bill Clinton: "And in conclusion ..." And the 1988 Convention roared its approval that finally the guy was going to shut up.
Back to the future, indeed!

He won because of Perot. Was so poor that Republicans took over Congress. Botched a chance for universal health care. Disgraced the Office and was rightly disbarred for lying under oath.

Had we picked anybody but Clinton (Tsongas, Jerry Brown, Bob Kerry) we still would have one and the Democratic Party would have been in infinitely better shape.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

LOL, the bots keep forgetting that Bill doesn't ne...

2008-08-08T07:08:00.000-04:00

LOL, the bots keep forgetting that Bill doesn't need a teleprompter and he doesn't need other people to write speeches for him. It doesn't matter what they write for him to recite and it doesn't matter what they put on the prompter.
The Big Dawg will give the speech the Big Dawg wants to give and he will blow away the crowd.
Bill Clinton is the most gifted statesman alive today. During the State of the Union Address, the teleprompter broke, which would leave obambi or bushie both speechless and bumbling. Nobody knew it was broken until it was over because Bill went on with the address without it, flawlessly.
ANYBODY who thinks they can control Bill Clinton is a damn fool.

"In conclusion . . . . "That was Bill Clinton's bi...

2008-08-08T06:27:00.000-04:00

"In conclusion . . . . "

That was Bill Clinton's biggest applause line from 1988. His speech caused a minor scandal for the reasons noted above. We should have known then that it would always be about Bill.

This whole dust up over the Clinton's this week is evidence that there is a significant factional problem within the Democrat Party. Bill is still licking his wounds in Africa and Hillary is courting her PUMAs and planning her roll call. Party Unity My Ass, indeed!

It is amazing to me that Clinton, the former Icon of his Party, could have been treated so shabbily this election year and that the Obama campaign and its supporters would be so willing to throw him under the bus along with so many others. That he is pissed and feeling dissed is entirely natural.

It would be a mistake to think that there are not many other Democrats who are feeling similarly bruised and while not yet ready to defect are not all that enthusiastic about Obama, who after all only got 50% of the votes in the primaries to 50% for Mrs. Clinton. Do not discount that Bill’s treatment and resentment over it has potentially moved the polls in NY a nudge.

Obama is about to take a week off. To me that is an amazing move. While it is undeniable that a significant segment of the population is sick of hearing about him, it is a huge mistake to leave the playing field to your enemies.

Both McCain and the Clintons can use the week to sharpen their knives (and claws) get ready for the sprint to the Conventions.

Do not think for a moment that the Clintons are ready yet to give up their quest for power.

Something else about introducing the VP,Bill Clint...

2008-08-08T05:17:00.000-04:00

Something else about introducing the VP,
Bill Clinton once said he would like to see Evan Bayh as a future president.

http://clinton6.nara.gov/2000/05/2000-05-08-remarks-at-reception-for-congressman-baron-hill.html

So that could be a nice transition from Bill to VP.

And it would be almost devilish if he would introduce Kathleen Sebelius and split the No-One-but-Hillary-votes from the Clinton-approved-VP-votes. So, Hillary can´t do it because she would betray her fiercest fans - let Bill do it.

Bill Clinton is, apart from Obama, the Top Dog of ...

2008-08-08T05:01:00.000-04:00

Bill Clinton is, apart from Obama, the Top Dog of the party. He and Hillary will pull more media attraction than anyone else, apart from Obama. I really doubt that Hillary is going to be VP if she actually speaks on Tuesday already and then again after Bill. Would Obama really allow THAT much Clinton?
Apart from that, Bill has stated that he enjoys returning to his statesman-like role. But his ego will never allow him to honestly congratulate Obama - maybe it´s the best if he plays the pure attack dog.
Both Hillary´s and Bill´s actions tell me that it´s not going to be Hillary. Why else should Hillary be wanting some kind of recognition for her votes on the convention. Why does she speak of a "catharsis", but not Obama? Because from her point of view, she will in fact go through a lot of suffering (telling people to get behind Obama) to "cleanse" her soul (give up national ambitions and be "just" a strong voice in the senate).

Besides, all the attention that surely will be on Bill Clinton can be used to nationally introduce a VP who hasn´t yet stood in the national spotlight for all the non-policy-wonks.

I REALLY wish the Democrats would stop with all th...

2008-08-08T02:20:00.000-04:00

I REALLY wish the Democrats would stop with all this drama. I could care less that Bill Clinton is speaking. Despite all the media hype, most people don't really care what he does. He is the past. Obama and the VP choice are about the future. Everyone knows that Bill Clinton loves to talk about Bill Clinton. I would like to see a unified convention with sane, rational Democrats who support the nominee and want to win. I'm sick of the faux Democrats trying to control the party, the fringe radical activists like Geraldine Ferarro (who lost in 49 states by the way), PUMAs, and the Clintonites who shill 24/7 without regard to the actual facts.

Democrats can focus on what Obama will bring to the table, or they can debate Bill Clinton "feelings" and "bitterness" about comments HE MADE. I don't know how someone can feel wronged if they made the disparaging comments to begin with.

@Jim ButlerYou are right, of course, and I had tho...

2008-08-08T01:11:00.000-04:00

@Jim Butler

You are right, of course, and I had thought through the Reagan example.

Reagan picked someone with enormous experience and history in the Republican Party and former Republic Administrations' leadership, who was well known nationally, and who had run second to Reagan in the Republican primaries.

I'm not sure that the democratic party has someone right now who is Bush's equivalent (recall he was elected to Congress, served as Ambassador to China and the UN, was chairman of the Republican Party, and Director of Central Intelligence). Except of course Hillary Clinton. She is the establishment experience candidate who came in second to Obama's rockstar change campaign. She bring's the other half of the Democratic Party.

I'm not trying to argue for Hillary Clinton, per se. I'm just trying to figure out what the Obama narrative is and how it impacts a VP choice.

I talked to this at some length with Curt Ellison, who has written at length about fan culture in gospel and country western music. He agrees with me that Obama is not just rockstar but rockstar gospel preacher in the mode of Martin Luther King. It's hard to imagine that narrative including a second individual at all. In country and gospel music, duets tend to be family affairs, and don't tend to have star status individuals partnering (think also of the mega church evangelical preachers; the people who play number two are more administrative types; following that argument, one might imagine a VP playing a crucial administrative role, but it's not at all clear how it helps Obama construct a narrative).

So, either Obama downplays the VP choice, or he chooses someone who has the gravitas and charisma to play on the same stage.

Which stooge thinks that new registrants are not c...

2008-08-08T01:09:00.000-04:00

Which stooge thinks that new registrants are not captured in polling?

If there is not LV screen, they are most certainly covered. Why are people passing on such blather.

Thirdly,
The young people are coming out to vote is the siren song of the losing presidential elections of nearly all democrats in the past.

Clinton has been the only Dem winner in the last 40 years. Carter won in the aftermath of the pseudo-scandal called watergate.

Nixon's worst scandal was expanding a huge regulatory burdon on the country including EPA. He messed up the country with wage and price controls. He would be considered a liberal democrat today.

Similarly, JFK would be considered a Republican in policy today. Reducing a mammoth tax burdon on the American by ruducing tax rates across the board. Yes, Democrat party, your favorite Dem would be a GOP.

MLK JR. would be closer to the stance of minority rights and equal protection under the law of the Republican party. There is no part of the "I have a dream speech" that would imply race-based preferences or affirmative action programs.