Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Was 2008 A Realigning Election? Ask Me In Eight Y...

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2009-10-02T05:57:22.600-04:00

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2009-04-16T22:09:00.000-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:50:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:57:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:57:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:48:00.000-05:00

But Harding's election WAS a realigning election. ...

2008-11-14T12:02:00.000-05:00

But Harding's election WAS a realigning election. The Republicans remained dominant right up through 1929, despite the Harding administration's incompetence and criminality. Three Presidents in a row (Harding, Coolidge, Hoover) and IIRC continuous control of Congress. It was smashed by 1929, but we shouldn't discredit it due to that -- at the time, Harding's election was realigning.

Hopeful in NJ said... On realignment -- Rosenberg'...

2008-11-13T21:34:00.000-05:00

Hopeful in NJ said...
On realignment -- Rosenberg's series on Open Left considers Nixon to be the realigning election. Certainly that's when we see the patterns of how the states and various ethnic groups vote shift. Reagan -- however important as President -- did not realign in this view.
Well said Hopeful! To add to that, without Watergate, I think Reagan would have been the obvious winner in 1976 (there thus being no “incumbent” Ford to lose to in the primaries for one thing, and less animosity towards Republicans in the first place) and thus an uninterrupted Republican rule. The 1980 election was by all accounts a continuation of the trend set in place by the Civil Rights Act. The Civil Rights Act is the reason the Southern Strategy was effective. It was the reason why only Southern Democrats could win not only elections overall, but any states at all from the south. Even though Johnson won “re”-election in 1964, two interesting things happened that seem unfathomable today: A Democrat carried Vermont for the first time EVER and a Republican carried Georgia for the first time EVER. Remember, the south was solidly Democratic before then, being the ONLY part of the nation Adlai Stevenson could carry in either election against Eisenhower, and Stevenson was from Illinois, not the south! The Civil Rights Act is the reason for the so-called Reagan realignment. Without Watergate begetting Jimmy Carter, the realignment would be credited to Nixon, even though it wasn’t caused by him. The racism of the south made the southern strategy possible, making Nixon possible. Reagan just picked up the pieces in the aftermath of Watergate and made the realignment his own.

This brings me to our current “realignment.” I feel that it could very well be a true realignment given that we saw some things we certainly couldn’t have fathomed before: A northern Democrat, and a black one at that, winning in Virginia and North Carolina, and having a better showing than either Gore or Kerry in some other southern states. Plus the changing face of the electorate as a whole, as more minorities are added to the rosters every election, and the aging of the population that still clings to the racist views in the south. There will still be conservatives of course; however they won’t be as conservative as they are today. As conservatives embraced some of the ideas of the New Deal a generation later, the conservatives of today will realize that to be a viable party they will have to embrace the Civil Rights Act and make a real effort to reach out to minorities.

Then again, when we talk about realignments, we’re only talking presidential. Take a look at the composition of Congress since FDR. The Republicans only controlled the Senate 20 years since 1933, and the House only 16. I think that is a stronger indication of the political views of the country as a whole than the presidential election as the president is only one candidate to vote for, while the people get to choose 535 Reps and Senators (yes I know that not everyone gets to choose every candidate, but that isn’t the point). Then we’re talking about the New Deal realignment, interrupted only by a (thankfully) short Republican Revolution. But we’ll see what happens in the near future!

David Mayhew (Electoral Realignments, Yale Press 2...

2008-11-13T08:37:00.000-05:00

David Mayhew (Electoral Realignments, Yale Press 2002) argues persuasively that realignment theory is a very misleading way to look at elections. He argues that "big" and/or consecutive wins by parties can be best explained by contingency, short-term partisan strategy, and perceptions of government management. In any event, I agree with Nate -- it's WAY too early to know if this election will bring about an enduring Democratic majority.

Sherwick,I would be teaching them what Jesus taugh...

2008-11-12T18:49:00.000-05:00

Sherwick,

I would be teaching them what Jesus taught. Jesus taught to obey God's law. God's law says homosexuality is sin. Case closed. Believe otherwise. That's fine with me. I just want my personal beliefs respected.

The issue is over. I'm leaving for the evening.

I think a part of the problem is that many of thos...

2008-11-12T18:36:00.000-05:00

I think a part of the problem is that many of those who genuinely believe homosexuality is a sin but at the same time feel no hate toward gays have never personaly experienced the abuse, pure hate, and physical attacks perpetrated on gays by other so-called Christians who hold the same beliefs.
The sinner becomes the sin, to be cleansed from society. The person is devalued.
gay marriage is not a matter of semantics, it's a matter of human dignity - on both sides.

Jesus didn't waste his time teaching his disciples...

2008-11-12T18:31:00.001-05:00

Jesus didn't waste his time teaching his disciples about the sin of homosexuals. Why do you spend your time doing so with your kids? Why not only teach them what Jesus said?

mac,There are examples where they've brought - in ...

2008-11-12T18:31:00.000-05:00

mac,

There are examples where they've brought - in CT, I think - counsellors into the school systems to teach specifically and directly to the kids about homosexuality and how it's "okay" and all of that....and not under the supervision or approval of the parents in the district.

People on here told me a few months ago that I had no right to believe it was a sin when we had a similar discussion. They said they believed I should be forced to change my way of thinking.

Hardly paranoia when there are real-life examples.

Though I agree my hyperbole gets carried away sometimes.

Sherwick,You have every right to believe that abou...

2008-11-12T18:29:00.000-05:00

Sherwick,

You have every right to believe that about me.

I'm sorry you feel that way, though, because I assure you there is no hate within me on the subject.

Believing something is a sin doesn't not automatically translate into hatred of any kind. It's a simple recognition of something according to how I understand God's commandments.

As I said, there's plenty else that counts as sin, and I've got my own to work on first.

Love above all else. That's what Jesus taught.

They want nothing less that to control the thought...

2008-11-12T18:27:00.000-05:00

They want nothing less that to control the thought patterns on the rest of society and indoctrinate the thinking of others in this country...

And you're the one who just called someone else paranoid? Wow. Just freakin' wow.

andrew, probably not very popular as not enough ha...

2008-11-12T18:23:00.000-05:00

andrew, probably not very popular as not enough hate in there.

MR:I don't doubt you can find examples of extra ag...

2008-11-12T18:21:00.000-05:00

MR:

I don't doubt you can find examples of extra agendas on both sides. I'm not arguing for anything but equal legal and economic status for "married" couples. End of story. If people try to abuse free speech, that's no argument against the first amendment. You accept the basic right and then try to manage abuse.

@sherwick
Some people who have done work on what Jesus actually said and history of the early church and scriptures:

John Dominic Crossan
Elaine Pagels

And it is my right to teach my kids that people th...

2008-11-12T18:17:00.000-05:00

And it is my right to teach my kids that people that have beliefs like yours are sinners in the eyes of Jesus. You teach hate in the name of the Lord. That is the ultimate sin.

It's my right to believe that your belief that hom...

2008-11-12T18:14:00.000-05:00

It's my right to believe that your belief that homosexuality is a sin, is a sin.

Andrew,While I agree to a point and that people ha...

2008-11-12T18:11:00.000-05:00

Andrew,

While I agree to a point and that people have manipulated the "semantics" of the issue and the wording to further their agenda from the heterosexual side, there is an agenda from the other side as well.

It's not enough for (some) uber-liberal gay activists to just have equal protection and rights under the law, EVEN including having it all defined under the same word - "marriage."

No, some have a further agenda. They want nothing less that to control the thought patterns on the rest of society and indoctrinate the thinking of others in this country that they are "normal" for what they do or that it is "not a sin" and to even go as far as tp introduce that line of thought and teaching into society via the public school system or other societal outlets where they have a voice.

They want to bastardize a parent who, while respectful of equal rights under the law of the land, wants to believe at home and teach and live among his/her own family that homosexuality is a sin and is not how God intended relationships to be.

THAT is where they cross the line, and there have been example after example of the activist gay community not wanting to just stop at equal rights/protection....they want to change the way of thinking of others, which is an infringement of people's rights.

People have a right to believe what they want, so long as they don't use that belief to infringe on the rights of others.

Believing homosexuality is a sin and wrong in the eyes of God does not inherently infringe on others' rights. I think lying is wrong (or a sin), yet I don't make any bones over people doing it. I simply believe it's wrong to do, and that's a moral code I would want to teach in my own household.

That is MY right.

MR:I do not belong to any religious body, be it Ch...

2008-11-12T18:07:00.001-05:00

MR:

I do not belong to any religious body, be it Christian or otherwise. I guess that's why I can respect your beliefs without feeling that mine are threatened by doing so.

I wonder what a version of Christianity that only ...

2008-11-12T18:07:00.000-05:00

I wonder what a version of Christianity that only taught the words of Jesus (and no one else's words) would be like...

Penderyn,Nothing. I may not agree with your versio...

2008-11-12T18:04:00.000-05:00

Penderyn,

Nothing. I may not agree with your version of Christianity - or your church - that endorses it, but it's your (and their) right as citizens of this country.

MR, as long as the church marriage doesn't give an...

2008-11-12T18:01:00.000-05:00

MR, as long as the church marriage doesn't give anyone any extra legal rights, that's fine by me.

A little paranoid, are we?

Or wait, didn't you hear, being part of a "church marriage" gives you access to this really secret code, so when you file your taxes, you can use it to get like an extra $15,000 deduction, and you'll also be able to use the "church marriage" title to get absolutely free health care, paid in full by all of the homosexuals in the country.

Best of all, though, is that being in a church marriage allows you to cut to the front of the line at all the rides at Disney, Six Flags, and other theme parks.

Last post on this. I promise. Yes it's semantics...

2008-11-12T18:00:00.000-05:00

Last post on this. I promise.

Yes it's semantics. Semantics are important and real. "Marriage" has complex semantics, and the complexity is being used (cynically, by some) to promote an anti-homosexual agenda.

Semantics:

Let's say there is a word, X, that refers to the legal/economic union and associated rights which all couples, heterosexual or homosexual, are entitled to under law.

Let's say there is a word, Y, which indicates a religious union, and each religion can define for itself, for example, whether that includes homosexual unions.

Our problem is that "marriage" is used for both X and Y. Then people use their own personal/religious definition of Y to restrict the legal/economic meaning of X.

If you can't grasp that "marriage" is being used with 2 different legitimate meanings, in two different contexts, with two different purposes, then use separate words(!) Then X can serve it's function as a non-discriminatory legal/economic term, and Y can be what each religion defines it as. Then the Episcopal Church can debate within itself, or Reform Jews can debate with Orthodox, and so on. And non-denominational Mule Rider can keep his own sense of what the word means.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Was 2008 A Realigning Election? Ask Me In Eight Y...

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But Harding's election WAS a realigning election. ...

Hopeful in NJ said... On realignment -- Rosenberg'...

David Mayhew (Electoral Realignments, Yale Press 2...

Sherwick,I would be teaching them what Jesus taugh...

I think a part of the problem is that many of thos...

Jesus didn't waste his time teaching his disciples...

mac,There are examples where they've brought - in ...

Sherwick,You have every right to believe that abou...

They want nothing less that to control the thought...

andrew, probably not very popular as not enough ha...

MR:I don't doubt you can find examples of extra ag...

And it is my right to teach my kids that people th...

It's my right to believe that your belief that hom...

Andrew,While I agree to a point and that people ha...

MR:I do not belong to any religious body, be it Ch...

I wonder what a version of Christianity that only ...

Penderyn,Nothing. I may not agree with your versio...

MR, as long as the church marriage doesn't give an...

Last post on this. I promise. Yes it's semantics...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...