Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 7/5

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2009-10-08T08:05:46.488-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:51:49.845-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:54:00.000-05:00

It's curious to me that so many people want to dis...

2008-07-07T11:59:00.000-04:00

It's curious to me that so many people want to discount Obama's chances in Georgia. With NO effort in the state whatsoever, Kerry narrowly won Chatham County, the majority-white county of which Savannah is a part. Literally, Kerry was the worst possible candidate to compete in the South -- and he only took 23% of the white vote. Sure, Obama needs to mobilize the Af.-Am. vote, but the white Georgia populace is made up of more than just evangelicals, who are not by the way any great lovers of McCain. It's easy to see Obama getting close to 30% of the white vote here (still a Republican landslide, obviously) which would mean that Georgia is very, very competitive.

Remember that in the primary here, when both parties had hotly contested elections, Obama won 35% of ALL voters, more than twice as many as Clinton, McCain, Romney, and Huckabee. The Democratic electorate is motivated, and the Republican one is not.

NATE:Have you seen this: http://www.zogby.com/news...

2008-07-06T23:04:00.000-04:00

NATE:

Have you seen this: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1523 ... You will find it interesting

I have to laugh at the right. "We're winning in Ir...

2008-07-06T22:45:00.000-04:00

I have to laugh at the right. "We're winning in Iraq" they say. laughable. You've beaten down Alqaida , but they were never the biggest problem. America is not the decider as to who wins in Iraq. Our own security estimate finds only 2% of violence was from terrorists. The other 98% was the suni and shia killing each other. Right now the US troops are nothing more than a well trained , well armored police force trying to impose order in the middle of a civil war.

2/3 of Americans know violence is down in Iraq and they want to get the hell out. Theres hope for us after all.

Iran has much more influence than we do, in fact we are causing much of the problem that currently exists. You think the extremes of the middle East will ever be satisfied with an American presence in Iraq. Of course they won't. We can stay. But we can't win it. There is no enemy left in Iraq. Iran is the only enemy left, and they're next door pulling everyone's strings.

I don't blame Bush for all this. This was Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz. The Republicans deserve punishment at the polls. Electing an incumbent party when 80% of the country believes we're on the wrong track would serve to recognize only one thing. We can't blame anyone else for the state of our country but ourselves. The constitution elected Bush the first time, thanks to the electoral college. We elected Bush the second time, of our own choosing. If we elect McCain, for what we know is Bushes third term. The voters will have no ground on which to complain. McCain couldn't get elected in any other industrialized country in the world over Obama. We must ask ourselves, who is to blame for our current situation?

"The military and political situation in Iraq has ...

2008-07-06T22:16:00.000-04:00

"The military and political situation in Iraq has improved so greatly that Obama will have no choice but to reverse course".

The political situation has improved so greatly? The political situation shall remain as it was and has been since Saddam was overthrown--A Shiite dominated government that is a strong ally of Iran at best, and an Iranian client-state at worst. If you consider that an optimal political situation, you are delusional.

America has let the events of 911 throw you into a...

2008-07-06T22:13:00.000-04:00

America has let the events of 911 throw you into a tail spin. The rest of the modern world is already paying $5 a gallon for gas and more. We've accepted it. You'd better.

Global Warming has been accepted as a fact in the rest of the modern world yet the U.S. is still debating if it exists. Come on guys. I watched an Inconvenient Truth. You think Gore is making this up?

You've gotten yourselves stuck in two wars, 1 necessary, 1 not, but your not doing great in either. Israel and Iran are about to start WWIII, and all I hear from the U.S. media is who wears a flag pin and if being a POW is grounds for being commander and chief.

Your public education system is terrible. You've got the best health care in the world and half the country can't afford it. Your $10 trillion in debt most of it to China who's coming up your rear and about to replace you as the worlds super power.

God help us if China becomes the top dog.

Theres a reason the world is paying attention to your election, it matters. And from where we sit, its a no-brainer, you gotta vote Obama. No one knows if Obama will be a great president or not, but for the problems the world needs solved, he's our best chance. Nothing against McCain, I always thought he was miles ahead of Bush, but his thinking is old.

The world has gone global, its not country against country anymore. Theres a reason Obama is favoured by younger people, he gets it. Some fights can't be won through the barrel of a gun. Terrorism is an idea. An idea thats spreading. The musslim world hates you right now, and thats creating the very problem you wish to fight. Thats why Bushes foreign policy is so wrong.

Americas greatest strength isn't its military, its the moral authority it carries. America since WWII has spoken for the free world whether we liked it or not. And right now we don't like what your saying.

We wait holding our breath for November fourth. Please don't disappoint the world again.

Peter Kent,"The military and political situation i...

2008-07-06T21:34:00.000-04:00

Peter Kent,

"The military and political situation in Iraq has improved so greatly that Obama will have no choice but to reverse course on his strategic assessment and in so doing align himself with Bush and McCain."

I don't really understand this argument. Obama's position on Iraq has been that he intends to withdraw one to two brigades per month as soon as he takes office, with all combat troops out within 16 months. If the situation on the ground in Iraq is as good as the right would have us believe, doesn't this make such a withdrawal timetable MORE tenable, as Iraq is, allegedly, in a better position to take over security and governing responsibilities for itself? Wasn't the critique of Obama's plan from the right that withdrawing too quickly would cause Iraq to descend into civil war? But if progress is so great, doesn't this vastly reduce the risk of civil war upon our withdrawal?

In fact, isn't McCain - we'll stay 100 years if necessary - the one who's moving toward Obama's position - gradual careful withdrawal over 16 months - with the argument that conditions have improved enough that we can begin withdrawing troops?

On the oil issue....Yes, non-fossil fuel technolog...

2008-07-06T21:33:00.000-04:00

On the oil issue....

Yes, non-fossil fuel technologies are a ways down the road (so to speak). But what about just getting into more efficient vehicles?

Europeans already drive cars that are 30% or 40% more efficient than ours. So we could all be in these cars today--if we wanted to. If the price of gas goes up 40%, you don't pay any more to drive around if your car is 40% more efficient.

And that's what we could do right now. Five or ten years down the road, we could be in still more efficient vehicles. That should tide us over until the new technologies become available. So the economy won't come to a standstill, even without more domestic drilling (which won't do much to help anyway).

Anon@5:53p: I think this is fair since the left wi...

2008-07-06T21:00:00.000-04:00

Anon@5:53p: I think this is fair since the left wind [sic] has been imposing their views on America in the form of higher energy prices for the last 20 years.

Hoo boy! I know I shouldn't respond to trolls but...

Congress has been in Republican control for 12 of the past 14 years, and the Presidency in Republican control for the last 7.5 years (or 20 of the last 28 years).

Yeah, lots of view imposing going on there - just not from the 'left wind'.

If you want to know why people are blaming Republicans for the current state of crisis in America, take a look at those numbers again.

.

As I have noted here before, Obama will be forced ...

2008-07-06T20:40:00.001-04:00

As I have noted here before, Obama will be forced to back off from his position on ending the war. The box he finds himself on this became apparent on Thursday with his dueling press conferences on what "refining" his Iraq policy meant.

The military and political situation in Iraq has improved so greatly that Obama will have no choice but to reverse course on his strategic assessment and in so doing align himself with Bush and McCain.

Where McCain will receive credit for his advocacy for the surge, Obama as a Johnny come lately on the issue will get none from the center-right and will only piss off the left.

This coupled with Obama's stubborn refusal to permit more drilling and nukes will put him on the wrong side of Americans with respect to issue number one.

I am waiting to see the shift in the polls and I suspect McCain's desultory campaign thus far has not helped him. But it is early yet and he has $85 MM plus the Republican convention and the RNC to help him.

If Obama is successfully portrayed as being opportunistic and not true to his originals ideals, a good deal of his enthusiasm among the young and the internet vote will evaporate. The revolt at the Nation and the Dalily Kos is a harbinger of this.

One way or the other, the over 50 crowd will vote. By all accounts Obama has not found the inroad into that group.

These early snapshots are interesting, but not dispositive and not reflective of trends informed by the issues. Too much focus has been on horserace issues and what to do with Hillary and Bill to date.

That last post regarding polling in MT, ND, and SD...

2008-07-06T20:40:00.000-04:00

That last post regarding polling in MT, ND, and SD was from me, JGabriel - accidentally hit the publish button before adding my ID.

.

lilnev: Well since this has turned into an energy/...

2008-07-06T20:38:00.000-04:00

lilnev: Well since this has turned into an energy/transportation free-for-all...

Yes, JoeG appears to have successfully derailed the conversation on this thread, which means, I suppose, that he has successfully trolled us.

Anyway, returning to topic, I kind of intrigued by the apparent weak support for McCain in ND and SD. But I know it's partly due to the regression analysis. It would be nice to see some new polling from those states to determine if the regression is accurately predicting trends there.

Also, it would be nice to see some more polling in MT, just to find out if the last poll with Obama at +5 is an outlier or not.

.

Anon@5:57p: By the way Mirror image ... YOU DUMB, ...

2008-07-06T20:31:00.000-04:00

Anon@5:57p: By the way Mirror image ... YOU DUMB, STUPID TROLL !!!!

I believe that was Mirror JoeG's point, showing by example that JoeG himself was a 'dumb, stupid troll'.

That would seem, anyway, to be the point of the remark, "Kind of funny how silly this invective looks from *either* side..."

Not much for the reading comprehension, are you Anon@5:57p?

.

Well since this has turned into an energy/transpor...

2008-07-06T19:59:00.000-04:00

Well since this has turned into an energy/transportation free-for-all, let me throw in my two cents.

First, there's a distinction between power generation (electricity) and transportation fuels. This distinction will probably disappear in the next 20 years or so as electric vehicles take over, but for now they're not interchangeable.

Second, I've become convinced that oil is not only finite, but that we're rapidly approaching peak extraction rates. I think the tail is going to be fatter than many doomers do -- continued high prices will drive enough investment to drag out the plateau, then slow the descent -- but I don't think we can expect to meaningfully expand global oil supplies by just drilling more. Discovery of new reserves peaked in the '60s and has declined every decade since. Most of the best fields have been found and tapped, and are now depleting. Our love affair with oil is coming to an end. The only question is, are we going to leave it, or is it going to leave us? I think and hope and believe that we will leave it (under the duress of price pressure), without catastrophe.

So would it be good policy to allow drilling in ANWR and offshore? I used to be opposed to ANWR on environmental grounds, and indifferent on offshore (I've been backpacking in Gates of the Arctic National Park adjacent to ANWR, and damn it is beautiful; possibly the best two weeks of my life). I now think that these areas should be on the table, as part of a comprehensive energy/transportation package. They can fatten the tail of oil decline (US production peaked in 1970), lessen the disaster that is our balance of trade (oil imports are now more than half of the trade deficit, weakening the dollar), and contribute funds to the gov't to support the energy/transportation programs we need: expanded urban rail and commuter rail in all medium and large cities, so that people don't need oil-based cars; high-speed electric rail between cities to replace the soon-to-be-dead airlines; incentives to speed the development and adoption of eletric vehicles.

So, yes, I hope that Obama says that opening new areas is possibly acceptable as part of a comprehensive solution. But "drill-drill-drill" by itself doesn't even resemble a solution. And he shouldn't be afraid to say it. We need to get off oil, and new drilling can, at best, soften the transition.

In response to "anonymous"at 5:57 asking where I w...

2008-07-06T19:46:00.000-04:00

In response to "anonymous"at 5:57 asking where I was to reject leftist comments that were inappropriate. I haven't been back on the site until now- sorry, I wasn't aware I should check every post and be the moral authority of the blog.
But I agree- before reading your post I had read the post you had objected to- and I to came to the same conclusion-and had intended to respond.
First off to the same anonymous-
"James Cannon where are U-Could it be that left wing bloggers can say ugly things about a candidates wife and you not speak up about it surely what is good for the goose is good for the ..."
Well, I'd be careful about that considering what the Right has been doing to Michelle Obama-since I have not seen you post about it I am not faulting you of course. But neither Obama nor any surrogate has attacked Cindy McCain which I believe is fair- however Michelle has become Fox victim number two after her husband- so to say liberals are ok with wife-bashing is mistaken and misleading.
To Mirror Universe Anti-Matter JoeG
"Who do you want in the oval office answering this question, Barack "Not A Republican" Obama, or John "I'll Lie About Getting Blow Jobs From Oil Lobbyists in the Oval Office, and Call My Wife a Trollop" McCain."
While the Vicki Iseman issue is perhaps a legitimate issue (I contend that it is not- and I am as liberal as they get) there is no way to know if the story is true. To suggest it as fact is irresponsible and shameful. It imo should only be used to point out his tie to lobbyists- although looking at his staff this incident isn't at all needed- and thus is used as a cheap-shot imo. Your point about Iran is sensible , but the Iseman bit is not. One- talking about bj's in the oval office isn't exactly an issue democrats want to seriously discuss and will lose points. Two- Obama's campaign is about being above this type of politics. It is about values and fact and where to take America. Every left wing blogger or surrogate that stoops to this level is just fueling right wingers to yell hypocrisy. And in a sense they are right. While Obama IMO has been quite genuine in his attempt to be above this all, comments like this do not help that image. If you are a true Obama supporter IMO you should follow Obama's suit and stick to issues etc., and leave the gossip and suggestive/hurtful/quasi-news etc. crap out of the blogs and out of political discourse.
You could just have easily of made your point without Iseman. McCain is clearly tied to lobbyists (Phil Graham and on and on) so you don't need to take cheap shots like this. It is the equivalent of bringing up Farrikan and the Weather Underground etc. It is half-truths or unprovable innuendo etc., that is manipulated to distort opinions- and 538 and Americans are better than that-cut it out- on both sides. This isn't just Republican trolls (also a term that should be dropped- they can voice there opinion- if McCain backers use these habits it should be that poster not all Republicans who should be blamed). It is true for liberals to. Plenty of democrats post inappropriately-like the Iseman incident- but that doesn't mean all left wing bloggers are trolls either.
Cut out all the crap- especially on 538- people come here because this site is notorious for being about facts and polling and analysis and not any agenda political issues. And for the most part the blogging is the same-but those who use this blog for cheap political shots are being disingenuous- and it should stop.

@ Barryb and others: I think you are not getting t...

2008-07-06T19:37:00.000-04:00

@ Barryb and others: I think you are not getting the point. The world market price of oil will continue to rise further, because industrialising countries with large population (India, China, Indonesia etc.) are increasing consumption, and those who could reduce consumption, i.e. the industrialised countries, are not (or not fast enough) doing so. According to any information available, you can drill as much as you want in the USA, including your back yard, without being able to come up with even a fraction of the oil to quench China's thirst for oil.

Asides, i have read a number of reports that the US refinery capacity is insufficient and outdated, so you are buying a lot of gasoline and diesel in Europe, thereby driving our prices higher than than they should be if it was just for the increase in crude oil prices. So, drill oil in your back yard, ship it to Europe for refinement, and continue to burn it in your SUVs? Great concept for the future.

If (far from energy-efficient) Europe is a banchmark, you can easily reduce oil consumption. Maybe not by 50% - I agree the US is much more sparsely populated than Europe, so transport costs should be somewhat higher - but 35% should still be reachable. That is a far bigger source of oil than anything that can be gained from drilling, and definitely a more effective way to reduce the upward trend on oil prices.

In short - the issue is not how to prevent 10 USD/gallon, because this will happen anyway, but how to have it happening a few years later, and how to reduce the impact it has on the average American (and German, and Chinese, etc.). All I can say is that the German way of increasing gas taxes in time, and paying the money back to citizens by reducing social security contributions, has helped me to change from a 10 l/100 km Ford Sierra to a 6l / 100 km VW Golf TDI (sorry, to lazy for the mpg conversion, you have to do it yourself), and ultimately left more money in my pocket in spite of rising gas prices.

If you are interested in a few other mechanisms that follow the same ideas, I suggest (this time in English:

http://www.kfw-foerderbank.de/EN_Home/Housing_Construction/KfWCO2Buil.jsp

on low-interest energy saving loans for private home-owners, check also on the other loans and grants offered, like on Solar Power Generation;

http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/english/renewable_energy/downloads/application/pdf/eeg_gesetz_merkmale_en.pdf

on promotion of renewable energies.

[Is there anybody with a DKos account who could cross-post these links to this Blog of today, as they may answer a number of questions on practical examples that had been asked in the comments:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/6/11566/50666/832/547325]

Well, and if you don't believe in climate change, that's your business. However, you might be interested to know that the large re-insurance companies such as Munich Re and Swiss Re believe in it, and claim they have data supporting this belief. Which means, whether you believe in climate change or not, you will see insurance premiums against natural disasters (including the ones on the oil rig in your backyard) go up in line with athmospheric CO2 concentrations. Oh, and in the Alps, conversion from ski lifts to bicycle rentals for the summer is already a big issue - may also hit the Rocky Mountains in a few years ...

Unbelievable.Oil is a commodity controlled by a ca...

2008-07-06T19:29:00.000-04:00

Unbelievable.

Oil is a commodity controlled by a cartel of foreign nations (most of which are not friends of the US), and exploited by a small group of corporations.

Despite this, you believe that higher US energy prices are caused by environmentalists stopping drilling in the US? Despite the fact that over the last seven years Bush has given the energy companies leases to drill on millions of acres of public lands? Most of which is not being used for drilling?

Such astounding ignorance.

Fortunately, this year the Democratic Party will be more aggressive, and will not permit such foolishness to go unchallenged.

@Drew: Looks like MT +5 poll is included (it is da...

2008-07-06T19:23:00.000-04:00

@Drew: Looks like MT +5 poll is included (it is dated 7/1). Perhaps you were inadvertantly looking at MO (Missouri)?

Boy the trolls are out in full force today. And t...

2008-07-06T19:12:00.001-04:00

Boy the trolls are out in full force today. And they're completely ignorant to the world around them it seems. No electric cars? REALLY?! Why the hell do I own one? Is it fake? It must be!

Can't help but notice that the Montana poll showin...

2008-07-06T19:12:00.000-04:00

Can't help but notice that the Montana poll showing Obama as being ahead by five points isn't visibly included into the statistical analysis of that state. Since there are other polls in the state that show Obama as being ahead there (including the previous Rasmussen poll), why is this poll not included?

barryb,"The argument that drilling will not bring ...

2008-07-06T19:07:00.000-04:00

barryb,

"The argument that drilling will not bring down the cost of a gallon of gasoline is right up there with it will take 8 years to get the oil to market.
That was the argument Dem's have been making for 10 years and still are using today!!"

It's also the argument made by the Department of Energy, in reports issued under the Bush administration. Even John McCain said that the real benefit of offshore drilling would be "psychological," and conceded that such drilling would be unlikely to reduce gas prices any significant amount any time soon.

Of course, if you've got access to geological reports or anything like that that might contradict the overwhelming consensus that offshore drilling won't in fact lower domestic gas prices, we'd love to see that evidence.

@barryb: 1. Oil companies have huge land areas ope...

2008-07-06T18:59:00.000-04:00

@barryb: 1. Oil companies have huge land areas open for drilling. 2. They are not drilling on those areas.

Please explain how opening even more areas for drilling helps?

Who do you want in the oval office answering this ...

2008-07-06T18:57:00.000-04:00

Who do you want in the oval office answering this question, Barack "Not A Republican" Obama, or John "I'll Lie About Getting Blow Jobs From Oil Lobbyists in the Oval Office, and Call My Wife a Trollop" McCain.

James Cannon where are U-Could it be that left wing bloggers can say ugly things about a candidates wife and you not speak up about it surely what is good for the goose is good for the ....

By the way Mirror image-THERE IS NO ELECTRIC CAR, YOU DUMB, STUPID TROLL, and there won't be one for years to come!!!!