Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It...

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2009-07-22T04:46:54.080-04:00

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徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T01:26:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-18T02:29:00.000-05:00

I know that people here are sick of talking about ...

2008-10-18T03:31:00.000-04:00

I know that people here are sick of talking about the Bradley Effect, but I am a young political science student and having just learned about the Bradley Effect, am fascinated by it.
As an intern for the Obama campaign in North Carolina I spend a lot of time talking to undecided voters about their concerns regarding Obama. I have found that more often than not, especially among older white voters and young white men, they do not have specific problems with Obama (though some do), but rather think that "there is just something about him", or who “simply don't trust him”. I don't doubt that for some of the people I have spoken to there are specific concerns they have about Obama, but often they make it quite clear that the reason they don't trust him, or the thing they don't like about him is that he is a person of color. Though none of these people have committed to voting for Obama, and are therefore not evidence one way or the other in terms of the debate over the Bradley Effect, most of these people are registered Democrats or unaffiliated voters who have voted consistently for Democrats, yet who are fearful of voting for a person of color. So even though I am just beginning to learn about the Bradley Effect, based on my limited experiences working on this campaign and in looking at the nature of race in this election, it is hard for me to believe that the Bradley Effect doesn’t matter. It will certainly be interesting to see how polls taken before voting compare to exit polls and if there is such a thing as the Bradley Effect in this election.

Does anyone have any suggestions for Betting sites...

2008-10-14T14:33:00.000-04:00

Does anyone have any suggestions for Betting sites.
I want to bet on Between 2010 and 2011 for the 'Entitlement Emplosion Crash'?
Any links?

the questin i've asked in a couple of places is:wh...

2008-10-14T12:44:00.000-04:00

the questin i've asked in a couple of places is:

what were obama senate '04, d patrick for gov '06, and ford for senate '06's election day performances vs. their pre-election polling. while that data is not sufficient to prove anything, it still seems a lot more predictive than governor's races from the 1980s.

does anyone have that info?

So when does the Bradley effect, if it exists, sta...

2008-10-14T10:31:00.000-04:00

So when does the Bradley effect, if it exists, start? What if people start to change their leaning, even in polls, as the election nears? This did happen with Bradley.

Hey, Nate, since this thread has been buried by ot...

2008-10-14T08:28:00.000-04:00

Hey, Nate, since this thread has been buried by others now, I would like to make a (possibly annoying) plea for the use of more specific language than "racism." Most of your discussion is about racial prejudice -- individuals holding erroneous beliefs or opinions about a race of people, and racial discrimination -- individuals treating members of one race differently from members of another race. What people mean by the word "racism" is harder to understand than these relatively straightforward and accepted terms (though my definitions could surely be improved upon.) Using these distinct terms may also help you in your discussion because the two phenomena can occur independently.
OK, then. Sociology class is over.

CNN.com's lead story right now:Will Obama suffer f...

2008-10-14T01:55:00.000-04:00

CNN.com's lead story right now:

Will Obama suffer from the 'Bradley effect?'

@Prathap:Berg's stuff is crap. Try one of the fac...

2008-10-14T00:44:00.000-04:00

@Prathap:

Berg's stuff is crap. Try one of the fact checking sites. I know either Factcheck.org or Politifact.com has a complete write up on teh general issue.

Those of you wondering what happened with Rachel M...

2008-10-13T23:57:00.000-04:00

Those of you wondering what happened with Rachel Maddow in the comments above can see here:
http://bluebelle.typepad.com/blog/2008/10/rachel-pwns-david-frum-with-video-goodness.html

Nate,I think you missed one reason for a decreased...

2008-10-13T22:10:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I think you missed one reason for a decreased/no longer existent Bradley effect (though I didn't read all the comments to see if someone brought this up already): a larger proportion of the electorate belongs to a racial minority. I have no idea how racial biases of, for example, Latinos should be expected to play out in this election, but there certainly are many, many more of them than in 1980.

@andy js....I'll be 50 in 6 mo.

2008-10-13T21:20:00.000-04:00

@andy js....

I'll be 50 in 6 mo.

It's sometimes easy to forget that most voters are...

2008-10-13T21:10:00.001-04:00

It's sometimes easy to forget that most voters are actually younger than Obama, which means the race issue isn't as big as some people expected it to be. He'll be 50 in two and a half years time. The average voter age is about 43.

mrinsight22-You missed the part where Obama has st...

2008-10-13T21:10:00.000-04:00

mrinsight22-

You missed the part where Obama has stated that his daughters should NOT benefit from affirmative action.

He has said that affirmative action should become class-based, which I agree with.

Utah is RED, RED, RED. No polling is needed.The C...

2008-10-13T21:09:00.000-04:00

Utah is RED, RED, RED. No polling is needed.

The Church, for all intensive purposes controls the voting block.

The "Church" will not support some, if not any of the Democratic platform, eg. Roe v. Wade.

So regardless of race or name sake Utah will not be BLUE. Those 5 EV will not turn BLUE.

I agree with Donna Brazile (Gore's campaign manage...

2008-10-13T21:08:00.000-04:00

I agree with Donna Brazile (Gore's campaign manager who is black) that there will be a nationwide Bradley effect of about 3%. I am not rooting for it, just stating what I objectively expect to happen -- especially in the states of VA (site of the 14-point Wilder effect in 1989), NC, FL, OH, and PA (though Barack leads there so much it won't matter).

Thr real potential problem for Barack will not be people who lie to pollsters but the 40% to 80% of persons reached by phone who now refuse to participate in polls at all. Of course, if the final polls say Barack leads by 9 points that will not matter. But if the final polls have Barack up by 3 points, it sure could.

New Thread with LOTS OF POLLS!!!!

2008-10-13T21:07:00.001-04:00

New Thread with LOTS OF POLLS!!!!

New poll thread!! WOO HOO at all the blue!

2008-10-13T21:07:00.000-04:00

New poll thread!! WOO HOO at all the blue!

I have been thinking. Around February, around the...

2008-10-13T21:06:00.000-04:00

I have been thinking. Around February, around the time of the Wright explosion, pundits argued every minute race becomes an issue in this race, Obama looses.

I wonder if this is still the issue.

I agree; good post, Nate.www.approximatingpolitica...

2008-10-13T21:04:00.000-04:00

I agree; good post, Nate.

www.approximatingpoliticaltruth.com

@charlesNice. Ask and ye shall receive. The inte...

2008-10-13T21:03:00.001-04:00

@charles

Nice. Ask and ye shall receive. The interwebs are amazing.
I'll look into it. Thanks.

The ironic potential of polling Utah might be wort...

2008-10-13T21:03:00.000-04:00

The ironic potential of polling Utah might be worth it.

Imagine if the pollsters were in pairs, with matching attire, on bicycles.

It amazes me that any company polls Utah at all, s...

2008-10-13T21:01:00.000-04:00

It amazes me that any company polls Utah at all, since it's a bit of a waste of money. There have been one or two polls there, I think.

Though Obama did great at Harvard Law School, ther...

2008-10-13T21:00:00.000-04:00

Though Obama did great at Harvard Law School, there is no evidence for the claim above that Obama got into HLS on his own merits (and some evidence he used an Arab connection named Khalidi (see YouTube) and/or affirmative action to get in).

Barack has refused to release not only his SAT scores (that Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Dubya released), but also his LSAT score and his undergrad transcripts at Occidental and Columbia.

In a 1991 letter to the Harvard Law Record school paper advocating more minority hiring, Barack wrote that he had undoubtedly benefitted from affirmative action in his academic career.

Barack never published a scholarly article under his own name and only practised law (in which he had ACORN as a client) for about 3 years before entering politics.

Michelle admitted to Newsweek that she got into HLS via affirmative action. She did not pass the July 1988 Illinois bar exam, but did pass in 1989. She only practised law until the early 1990's.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It...

キャッシング 網頁設計 クレジットカード 現金化 ダンボール 留学 水 通販 ウィークリ...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

I know that people here are sick of talking about ...

Does anyone have any suggestions for Betting sites...

the questin i've asked in a couple of places is:wh...

So when does the Bradley effect, if it exists, sta...

Hey, Nate, since this thread has been buried by ot...

CNN.com's lead story right now:Will Obama suffer f...

@Prathap:Berg's stuff is crap. Try one of the fac...

Those of you wondering what happened with Rachel M...

Nate,I think you missed one reason for a decreased...

@andy js....I'll be 50 in 6 mo.

It's sometimes easy to forget that most voters are...

mrinsight22-You missed the part where Obama has st...

Utah is RED, RED, RED. No polling is needed.The C...

I agree with Donna Brazile (Gore's campaign manage...

New Thread with LOTS OF POLLS!!!!

New poll thread!! WOO HOO at all the blue!

I have been thinking. Around February, around the...

I agree; good post, Nate.www.approximatingpolitica...

@charlesNice. Ask and ye shall receive. The inte...

The ironic potential of polling Utah might be wort...

It amazes me that any company polls Utah at all, s...

Though Obama did great at Harvard Law School, ther...

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...