Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Election Night Thread

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2009-10-09T06:29:32.974-04:00

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2009-09-06T05:34:01.768-04:00

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2009-03-11T03:55:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T03:55:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-10T21:10:00.000-05:00

I must say, I'm really impressed. You did better ...

2008-05-07T02:06:00.000-04:00

I must say, I'm really impressed. You did better tonight than any of the pollsters. Congrats!

Zogby predicted Obama +2, not Clinont +2, when I a...

2008-05-07T01:57:00.000-04:00

Zogby predicted Obama +2, not Clinont +2, when I am right.

But I think CLinton still gains when we combine IN, NC and PA- 3861 Votes at the moment.

POBLANO: One last comment. Pollster.com give you k...

2008-05-07T01:39:00.000-04:00

POBLANO: One last comment. Pollster.com give you kudos among the non-pollster prognosticators. But guess who hit both state results right on the head: Zogby!

POBLANO: Using standard media rounding, it appear...

2008-05-07T01:25:00.000-04:00

POBLANO: Using standard media rounding, it appears to be a 2 percentage point win for Clinton in Indiana. So you nailed this prediction right on the head!

Congratulations on your IN + NC predictions, Pobla...

2008-05-07T01:22:00.000-04:00

Congratulations on your IN + NC predictions, Poblano. Just about perfect!

What's going on with Union County? No one there to...

2008-05-07T01:11:00.000-04:00

What's going on with Union County? No one there to count?

Yes, the Hammond mayor is on CNN and has said that...

2008-05-07T01:06:00.000-04:00

Yes, the Hammond mayor is on CNN and has said that Hillary won in Hammond by about 600 votes. So it looks like its over for Obama.

Hammond mayor said that HRC won by about 600 votes...

2008-05-07T00:52:00.000-04:00

Hammond mayor said that HRC won by about 600 votes

West Virginia and Kentucky look a lot worse than 2...

2008-05-07T00:43:00.000-04:00

West Virginia and Kentucky look a lot worse than 2:1 for Obama I'd say...some counties in Western Virginia were nearly 9:1 for Clinton.

Obama will be lucky to get 20-25% out of Eastern Kentucky.

POBLANO: However this comes out in the final deta...

2008-05-07T00:38:00.000-04:00

POBLANO: However this comes out in the final details, and even if you came to your results "in the wrong way," your demographic model worked extremely well in both Indiana and North Carolina -- within 2 to 3 points of the actual vote division in each state. And it beat the consensus of the polls in going out on a limb. Congratulations!

Some more political crack for those following Lake...

2008-05-07T00:28:00.000-04:00

Some more political crack for those following Lake County closely: http://www.nwi.com/blogs/election/

Yeah...Hillary is poison in the Great Plains and t...

2008-05-07T00:11:00.000-04:00

Yeah...Hillary is poison in the Great Plains and the Mountain West.

When North Dakota's congressional delegation invited Obama, whom they all had endorsed, to their convention, and then Hillary followed, people in ND, though always gracious and courteous, mused about exactly why exactly she was coming...perhaps to lecture them about caucuses.

Maybe TX with Hillary's Latino love and Obama's yo...

2008-05-07T00:01:00.000-04:00

Maybe TX with Hillary's Latino love and Obama's youth and AA appeal. BUT, Hillary would be a killer in the Midwest, she's just not popular. I could WI, MN going the other way. It might guarantee enough electoral vote IF IF IF, the republican's weren't holding Bill's cards. And they are.

"Discussion question: name one state that an Obama...

2008-05-06T23:55:00.001-04:00

"Discussion question: name one state that an Obama-Clinton joint ticket might carry against John McCain, but that neither candidate might carry individually."

My other pick NH.

I'd say not Nevada but maybe Arkansas. Also maybe...

2008-05-06T23:55:00.000-04:00

I'd say not Nevada but maybe Arkansas. Also maybe Missouri? New Mexico?

"Discussion question: name one state that an Obama...

2008-05-06T23:53:00.002-04:00

"Discussion question: name one state that an Obama-Clinton joint ticket might carry against John McCain, but that neither candidate might carry individually."

Big MO ... both barely lose MO to McCain - but together, perhaps.

Re: Question @ 10:43: A guarantee of the close tos...

2008-05-06T23:53:00.001-04:00

Re: Question @ 10:43: A guarantee of the close toss-ups like Penn & Ohio & Florida, making them non competitive.

Maybe Missouri?

There's just not enough close states out there outside the mid-west.

I agree, Dead Guy.I support Obama too, but this do...

2008-05-06T23:53:00.000-04:00

I agree, Dead Guy.

I support Obama too, but this doesn't look particularly kosher.

I don't know why Lake County played it so coy...this isn't winner take all.

Losing by 5000 is more or less equal to losing by 5000.

Texas.

2008-05-06T23:51:00.001-04:00

Texas.