Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout

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ALTERNATIVE TO THE $700 BILLION DOLLAR BAILOUT TO ...

2008-10-01T06:18:00.000-04:00

ALTERNATIVE TO THE $700 BILLION DOLLAR BAILOUT TO NOWHERE
The mortgage securitization and derivatives businesses which has been the beneficiary of extraordinary profits is undergoing a profound and enduring fundamental shift that is the result of unprecedented leveraged and irresponsible risk taking. The problem however is being exacerbated by speculative panic and hoarding by financial institutions around the world. Financial institutions fearful of a run on its deposits or other funding are hoarding. Lacking government intervention financial institutions are clearly vulnerable to liquidity runs.
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LIBOR RATES ARE A RESPONSE TO CREDIT CONCERNS AND OLD FASHION HOARDING which is an interesting parallel to the Great Depression. Interestingly the Great Depression was preceded by the Republican administrations of Harding 1920 to1923 and Coolidge 1923 to 1929. Both of these republican administrations were laissez-faire which allowed the markets to operate with minimal government regulation or supervision. Corporate dynasties formed. At the same time the imbalance of wealth and income reached unprecedented levels. Construction and automobile manufacturing which had enjoyed spectacular growth were in contraction in the year preceding the stock market crash of 1929. When the stock market crashed there was a huge excess of goods on the market ( ANYTHING SOUND FAMILIAR??)
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The threat for this crisis to bring down the economy is very real. Financial Services is a critical sector of the economy. An orderly shrinkage of the financial services sector is in every Americans best interest. The $700 Billion Dollar question is how best to go about it. First we need to recognize that the problem is far bigger than the $700 Billion the Treasury is asking for.
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We need to start to understand that the engine of our economy growth was tied to false demand created by leverage and extraordinary risk taking which included extending credit to less than credit worthy borrowers. Regulation at this point is a mute point as risk tolerance has already contracted rather dramatically. What we are confronting now are the consequences that follow.
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The American people understand that different investments carry different levels of risks and that it is precisely that risk / reward premium that drives investors to invest their money in equities or corporate bonds over conversely CDs or TBills.
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The risk / reward understanding forms the basis of the reasoning that the equity and bond holders must bear the brunt of the cost in solving this crisis facing the financial services sector less we face a moral hazard not to mention the outrage of the American people.
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The Federal Reserve balance sheet is already extraordinarily exposed to the risk created by the fallout in the financial services sector. The Federal Reserve is at a point where it needs to direct more of its attention towards encouraging consolidation. Weak banks must either merge or be shut down. Congress needs to understand that the government cannot keep making injections like the proposed $700 billion dollar bailout without overwhelming the US balance sheet. (Painful as it might sound there are really only two ways to restore the US balance sheet: recapitalization through taxation or inflation.)
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THE ALTERNATIVE TO SPENDING $700 BILLION
The role of the government in this crisis should be two fold. Its primary role should be that of a clearinghouse for disposing of impaired assets. The government should not buy but rather only advance money to the financial institutions who surrender assets and the amount extended should be based in large part on the predicted eventual sales price. The government would be charged with package these assets in a full range of standardize lot sizes while providing prospective bidders with material information about the asset class. The government would use broad means to solicit bids. In an effort to maximize the offer prices from bidders the government would offer financing on all US headquartered financial institutions assets. The amount of the financing available would be based on a sliding scale that has some loose correlation to the realized percentage of the bid to the assets original value. For example bids at 50 percent of asset value might be offered 50 percent financing whereas bids at 20 percent of asset value would only be eligible for 20 percent financing. The financing component would allow the government to extract greater participation and higher bids for assets. The financing would provide much less exposure to the US balance sheet than an outright bailout. By limiting advance payments as well as the financing to assets offered by US based institutions we would avoid the backlash of bailing out foreign held debt.
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The plan is pretty straight forward. I welcome your thoughts and other points of view as well as scathing criticisms.

This discussion (on MSNBC) seems to contradict the...

2008-09-30T12:06:00.000-04:00

This discussion (on MSNBC) seems to contradict the assertions of this post:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26956607#26956607

Barney Frank is the Congressman who made the attac...

2008-09-30T11:54:00.000-04:00

Barney Frank is the Congressman who made the attack on 9/11 possible with a law that denied law enforcement the ability to stop, question or turn known terrorists around when entering our country.

Frank is also one of the principle figures who orchestrated this entitlement to people who couldn't afford homes.

Barney Frank IS America's Domestic Enemy!

Plausible deniability? by Dr. John Lott 9/22/08
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,425924,00.html

FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QBRIsCkGQ0

Whose Policies Led To The Credit Crisis? by Ed Morrissey
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/whose-policies-led-to-the-credit-crisis/?print=1

FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYz1rbB5V1s&feature=related

Absoutely Amazing! And pitiful!This crisis is the ...

2008-09-30T11:41:00.001-04:00

Absoutely Amazing! And pitiful!

This crisis is the invention and was maintenanced by liberals and it is liberals who designed the failure of the bail out...which happens to be fortunate for us but, that wasn't their intention.

The Red Herrings From Socialists

Sniveling accusations of 'lack of regulation' as the cause of this economic disaster in order to duck the rightful blame is throwing red herrings at us as if we were seals at the zoo...well, I'm not blowing into a row of horns for more.

The over-regulation which Clinton signed in 1998 mandated lenders be pressured by liberal elected officials to make obviously bad loans to the poor as a form of entitlement. THIS is exactly what they did. The most costly entitlement ever subversely ( or otherwise )perpetuated on the American people by socialists within their plan to redistribute the wealth while personally profiting by it.

Unfortunately for all concerned this hand-out got away from the socialists denying them the ability to continue to hide the staggering cost from us of a proven failure of their idiotology.

With elections only a month away will we reward these socialists by allowing them to continue throwing us red herrings while ruining our lives and future?

Plausible deniability? by Dr. John Lott 9/22/08
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,425924,00.html

FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QBRIsCkGQ0

Whose Policies Led To The Credit Crisis? by Ed Morrissey
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/whose-policies-led-to-the-credit-crisis/?print=1

FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYz1rbB5V1s&feature=related

Absoutely Amazing! And pitiful!This crisis is the ...

2008-09-30T11:41:00.000-04:00

dow is up the next day already! The bailout is rig...

2008-09-30T10:26:00.000-04:00

dow is up the next day already! The bailout is right up there with the Medicare no negotiating package and the war in Iraq.

dow is up the next day already! The bailout is rig...

2008-09-30T10:25:00.000-04:00

dow is up the next day already! The bailout is right up there with the Medicare no negotiating package and the war in Iraq.

No one's mentioned it yet, but this analysis got a...

2008-09-30T09:18:00.000-04:00

No one's mentioned it yet, but this analysis got a mention by Cooper on 360 last night. Nice work!

None of the four Oklahoma congresspersons who vote...

2008-09-29T22:37:00.000-04:00

None of the four Oklahoma congresspersons who voted against it, one democrat and three republicans, is in a competitive district.

The Fix copied your story!!! That guy is such a fr...

2008-09-29T22:02:00.000-04:00

The Fix copied your story!!!

That guy is such a freakin' HACK it's amazing!!! And way less endearing as a political dork than the folks at 538.

Representative Ben Chandler of Kentucky has a safe...

2008-09-29T20:25:00.000-04:00

Representative Ben Chandler of Kentucky has a safe seat in the House, so safe he's thinking about 2010 and replacing Jim Bunning in the Senate. It's the same calculus with a longer time frame.

It's obvious to me that MOST of those who voted ag...

2008-09-29T19:27:00.000-04:00

It's obvious to me that MOST of those who voted against this bill did so for political reasons. And this analysis is proof of that.

We're probably in for hard times no matter what happens with this bailout and no matter who wins the election. But I think that's all the more reason to Vote For Barack Obama.

Think about how FDR saved America in the '30s. I think Obama can do that in the '10s of the 21st century.

---"Markets can't fail because the actors in them ...

2008-09-29T18:57:00.000-04:00

---"Markets can't fail because the actors in them (people) behave selfishly (all people behave selfishly - all of the time). As such, they won't take unreasonable risks (like lending a bunch of money to people who won't ever pay it back) unless there's some other incentive encouraging them to do so."---

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Wow, welcome to 1793. There are entire branches of economics that deal with the irrationality of markets.

Soundlab1407 said: "Pelosi is toxic. Why can't she...

2008-09-29T18:30:00.000-04:00

Soundlab1407 said: "Pelosi is toxic. Why can't she save her venom for AFTER the vote."

Oh, boo hoo. $700 billion with no oversight whatsoever, as the bill was first crafted by the Republicans. Paulson trying to put pressure on everyone to shove the bill through as soon as possible. McCain in there with Boehner throwing the discussions into chaos. She has every right to be pissed at the Republicans for causing this mess, the fact is that subprime mortgages exploded after 2000. This has happened under Bush's watch, the same guy who managed to take a balanced budget and turn it into our country's biggest deficit ever. Not only due to his disastrous error and subsequent mismanagement of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Pelosi doesn't say anything in that little five minute speech that isn't true.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey3ZlsmIkz4&eurl=http://reason.com/blog/show/129111.html

Trillion Dollar Johnny has set a new record - the ...

2008-09-29T18:16:00.000-04:00

Trillion Dollar Johnny has set a new record - the largest one day loss in shareholder value in US History - $1.2 Trillion.

Meanwhile his reckless and erratic behavior is costing him the election.

New Rass - all moved 3-5% for Obama in a week.

PA - +8
VA - +3
OH - +1
FL - +1
CO - +1

Stunning. McCain could not get out of his Press C...

2008-09-29T18:12:00.000-04:00

Stunning. McCain could not get out of his Press Conference fast enough. What are he and Boehner talking about right now? Cantor was considered for VP? What are those 2 discussing?

The GOP is screwed. "Let's Get Frank" completely schooled the Cantor Crybaby Crowd. "That mean, San Francisco Grandma hurt our feelings!" Disgusting.

The GOP as it stands now WILL NEVER work with Democrats. They never have & they never will. Moreover, the GOP has now relegated McCain to the dustbin of history.

And all because of that mean, old Grandma.

"all people behave selfishly - all of the time"Bul...

2008-09-29T17:46:00.000-04:00

"all people behave selfishly - all of the time"

Bullshit. That's completely unsupported by the empirical evidence. You're basing your economic beliefs on 17th Century science. It's time to update your understanding of how real human beings really behave.

Chad:

Okay, so you haven't invested entirely in stocks. My point is that your investments involved risk. You can't whine about it when they don't perform as well as you had hoped. That's what "risk" means. There's a non-zero chance that the shit is going to hit the fan and you're going to lose all your money.

Many people knew that the housing market was a bubble waiting to pop, and that the insane bundling of huge numbers of subprime mortgages by large banks was eventually going to result in this collapse.

If you think that giving away $700 billion to all of Paulson's buddies is going to fix this problem then you're delusional. We're not even halfway through this death spiral, regardless of whether this giveaway bill passes or not.

Mark Dennis Kucinich's words from earlier today: "what this bill does, unfortunately, it just kind of helps things keep going until the next trillion-dollar crisis, which is coming in a few months when the Alt-A or jumbo mortgages, which are being reset in ’09 and 2010, will find their maximum financial stress on marketplaces. So I think that you have to realize that this—what we’re doing today is not going to forestall a recession, it is not going to solve the problem of a collapse of mortgages, it’s not going to help homeowners."

Democrats provided 68.5% of safe-seat YES votes & ...

2008-09-29T17:40:00.000-04:00

Democrats provided 68.5% of safe-seat YES votes & 41.4% of safe-seat NO votes. Republicans provided 31.47% of safe-seat YES votes and 58.6% of safe-seat NO votes.

Democrats provided 62.5% of tossup- & leaning-district YES votes and 43.3% of toss- & leaning-district NO votes. Republicans provided 37.5% of tossup- & leaning-district YES votes and 56.7% of tossup- & leaning-district NO votes.

Note the similarities.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout

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^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

ALTERNATIVE TO THE $700 BILLION DOLLAR BAILOUT TO ...

This discussion (on MSNBC) seems to contradict the...

Barney Frank is the Congressman who made the attac...

Absoutely Amazing! And pitiful!This crisis is the ...

Absoutely Amazing! And pitiful!This crisis is the ...

dow is up the next day already! The bailout is rig...

dow is up the next day already! The bailout is rig...

No one's mentioned it yet, but this analysis got a...

None of the four Oklahoma congresspersons who vote...

The Fix copied your story!!! That guy is such a fr...

Representative Ben Chandler of Kentucky has a safe...

It's obvious to me that MOST of those who voted ag...

---"Markets can't fail because the actors in them ...

Soundlab1407 said: "Pelosi is toxic. Why can't she...

Trillion Dollar Johnny has set a new record - the ...

Stunning. McCain could not get out of his Press C...

"all people behave selfishly - all of the time"Bul...

Democrats provided 68.5% of safe-seat YES votes & ...

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