Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri

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2009-06-20T06:35:41.376-04:00

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2009-05-26T09:31:42.283-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:48:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:48:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-18T06:16:00.000-05:00

Obama's about to lose my vote if I don't get the "...

2008-10-12T13:56:00.000-04:00

Obama's about to lose my vote if I don't get the "Republicans for Obama" stickers I ordered three weeks ago. ;)

real joe, "PUMAs" are a myth. The woman who started the group called PUMA was a McCain supporter. When asked why she'd donated to McCain and not Hillary Clinton, she made some bizarre excuse about how she was only helping him in the primaries but didn't really support him.

Note from a carpetbagger in Loudoun... I was canva...

2008-10-05T21:59:00.000-04:00

Note from a carpetbagger in Loudoun... I was canvasing in that area last weekend, the people (in the rich areas, told it would be a hard sell) were going 2/3 Obama (roughly split between "Obama all the way", Hillary supporter who will likely vote Obama", and "don't talk to me").

On the other hand I was registering people to vote today (not too many left who will admit to being eligible and not registered). I was hearing more tales about harder sales in more "traditional blue" areas. Might be because we only hit the undecided voters...

Your description of the McCain operation reminds m...

2008-10-05T16:54:00.000-04:00

Your description of the McCain operation reminds me a little of when I was covering the NY primary for a local weekly in Chelsea, and the contrast in energy (if not numbers) was palpable. Clinton's volunteers were calm, dedicated, and by the book. At the Obama guerrilla phone bank in Hillary's home state, ir was a different story.)

Y'know, the Republican ground game isn't just GOTV...

2008-10-05T03:53:00.000-04:00

Y'know, the Republican ground game isn't just GOTV, but also KITV... ("keep in the [opposing] vote")

What the fuck? Indiana and Illinois are right nex...

2008-10-05T00:16:00.000-04:00

What the fuck? Indiana and Illinois are right next to Wisconsin! And since Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are now McCain's only real pickup targets, I think Wisconsin deserves some love. I hear that southeastern Wisconsin is a real bellweather for the state too. ...Also, everyone in our office reads 538.

Indiana resident here.I'm a student at Purdue and ...

2008-10-04T16:10:00.000-04:00

Indiana resident here.

I'm a student at Purdue and I can see the difference in the ground game everywhere.

McCain has an oft visited table at the entrance to the liberal arts building at an engineering school. Obama has registration tables trying to get every out of state student registered in Indiana and doing all they can to boost voter rolls everywhere they can as the rural vote is very important here, and it's logistically nearly impossible to get a ground game across the countryside.

The Red dam is showing serious signs of cracking to the blue flood.

Hope you guys come to Columbia, Missouri. This pla...

2008-10-04T15:54:00.000-04:00

Hope you guys come to Columbia, Missouri. This place is rockin' for Obama. Home of the Missouri Tigers (GO MIZZOU!), there is a big push and student involvement for Obama here. However, as news of Obama's success here, I am seeing more McCain signs--in yards, on the sides of private businesses, etc. I think people are starting to see this state turn BLUE!

So they've never heard of fivethirtyeight and you ...

2008-10-04T12:26:00.000-04:00

So they've never heard of fivethirtyeight and you can't be trusted to enter a field office but mccain-palin are buying ad space at the top of your page?!?!

36 ... but close. Was a fan of McCain when he foug...

2008-10-04T10:51:00.000-04:00

36 ... but close. Was a fan of McCain when he fought the airway frequency giveaway in the 90s. Disagreed with his stance on social issues though. Mostly it's an anti-Obama vote. I am anti-union, pro-free trade and think national healthcare would be a complete disaster (more inline with Regina Herzlinger's consumer driven model at Harvard).

Anti-union, pro-free trade, anti-national healthcare...you may have historically voted Democrat but you are a Republican, with those political views.

Flip-flopper.

This was a fascinating article (you remember, the ...

2008-10-04T10:39:00.000-04:00

This was a fascinating article (you remember, the piece about the ground campaigns, before all the racist junk started flying).

I'm not sure what it means, though. In Ohio in 2004, I believe the GOP did have a good ground game. But so did Kerry supporters (ACT more than the Kerry campaign itself, but that's another story).

I can't prove it, nor am I sure myself, but seemed to me that the anti-gay-marriage state constitutional amendment on the ballot brought out more Bush voters than any conventional GOTV activities (canvassing, driving to polls, etc.). I understand it was extremely effective among the many Amish Ohioans (Ohio actually has more Amish than PA), who often don't vote.

Don't forget us in Tippecanoe co. (Lafayette), IN....

2008-10-04T09:35:00.000-04:00

Don't forget us in Tippecanoe co. (Lafayette), IN. I'm all for Crawfordsville (go, Montgmery Co Obama!!!), but if we may brag ... we were the smallest co. in IN to be won during the primary, and the one w/ the smallest proportion of African-Americans.

We did have PU (Purdue U.) on our side, but the early voting results there were a tiny fraction of the co-wide vote.

That means we turned out the blue-coller "Hillary Demographic" voters in the city of Lafayette, which is about 40% of Tippecanoe co. We are the sixth-largest (or thereabouts) co. in the state.

Oh BTW, one of our ex-FOs is now working in Crawfordsville, and I wish you guys out there (and all Obama folks) the best!!

This isn't just a "ground game" here in IN, this is a movement.

And BTW, I have nothing to do with that "other" Raj. I'm known around here as The Mad Canvasser (with some justification).

Go NC!!

Go MO!!

Go IN!!

:D

No more excuses, now I'm off. Backpack was packed last night w/ Phillies, policy lit., reggae and even ABS w/ the mailing address hand-written on the back. (ABS are critical, we have a lot of older pre-civil-rights-era Dems. "Ya gotta work them ABS!!" hehe)

GEORGIA is similar. Obama has at least 40 offices;...

2008-10-04T09:24:00.000-04:00

GEORGIA is similar. Obama has at least 40 offices; McCain has ZERO -- only the Southeast regional office in Tallahassee, FL.

Well, we are working much harder. That's absolutel...

2008-10-04T09:16:00.000-04:00

Well, we are working much harder. That's absolutely true, but it's because we have to.

I work in Indiana ... it's hell here, with our older voters, single-issue pro-lifers, and knee-jerk Republicans.

Heaven help two of my good pals - our old RFD who is now DFD in NC, and the campaign's most legendary canvasser, now a DRFD in MO.

Go MO!!

Go NC!!

Go IN!!!

We may lose, but we work harder.

And we are not going down without a fight!

(I'm into the shower right now ... off for a full day of canvassing. I wouldn't be in such a dreadful precinct if I had the choice, but I've already knocked all the good ones :))

So look. You're pushing it a little hard. It mig...

2008-10-04T04:15:00.000-04:00

So look.

You're pushing it a little hard. It might help to stop unloading when someone resists recognizing the site as a legitimate organization that they must respect. It's incredibly new, and while the brand is very strong, it's going to take a little while to sink in with people. And the core of the brand is relatively unbiased polling projection.

Aggressively pushing this journalistic respectability on people just strikes me as the wrong way to go about it. Right on the heels of the RCP dustup, you might want to work on sounding a little less vindictive. Facts, fine; just don't sound quite so bitter about it. Releasing bad facts, harshly delivered, in response to a criticism... it sounds worse for you than them.

I'm an Obama supporter in St. Louis. It's 3 am and...

2008-10-04T04:01:00.000-04:00

I'm an Obama supporter in St. Louis. It's 3 am and I just left a couple of local bars registering voters and will be knocking on doors in 6 more hours. The polls will never reflect the voters we've registered and the work which will be done to insure those supporters get to the polls on election day.

The city is solidly blue and our efforts here will help MO swing to Obama. I have yet to see a McCain office here, someone tell me where one is so I can witness it myself.

Possibly the big story in Indiana is that McCain's...

2008-10-04T02:05:00.000-04:00

Possibly the big story in Indiana is that McCain's numbers are dropping precipitously because the Indianans are ticked that he ditched their native son David Letterman.

Republicans usually are runaway winners in states where they have 24-hour gun/liquor stores.

"All of the intellectuals in the country have basi...

2008-10-04T00:18:00.000-04:00

"All of the intellectuals in the country have basically endorsed Obama."

That is complete and utter baloney. Another sales job for the cr*p sandwitch of socialistic elitism. There is no argument to be made for the hollow and unoriginal empty suit. None at all. there is marketing and campaign BS and phony hype.

Like the in-the-tank liberal MSM, the liberal intellectual class has sold their souls, or forgot they had a soul, to cheerlead for this dangerous and awful President. In the end they are suck-ups to power, and screw the people and their freedoms and sovereignty.

These intellectuals that manufacture consent for the Soro-funded Obama regime are the enablers of the same type of cult of personality that sustained Hitler, Mao, Stalin and Peron.

If you cant see the puppet strings and the charade, then you are a victim of the bamboozling.

"This is patently inaccurate on two levels. First,...

2008-10-04T00:08:00.000-04:00

"This is patently inaccurate on two levels. First, the first article creates the legislature, not the executive branch. Second, the only enumerated duty of the VP is in fact in the first article, and it is a legislative, not executive, duty. To quote one of those Founders, "Facts are indeed stubborn things."

The person who made this statement isn't the Alaskan governor who has been on the national scene for five weeks. It's the Senator, an attorney by trade, who has been in place for 35 years."

"Oh please. You want to compare the fact that Biden got his article numbers wrong to the fact that Palin thinks that the Vice President isn't in the executive branch and wants to expand its power beyond Constitutional limits?"

PALIN WAS CORRECT (she never said it wasnt in the executive, she mentioned it had a legislative role too wrt Senate). BIDEN WAS WRONG.
That's the point. She knew more than Biden, 36 veteran, who got his Article numbers wrong *and* got wrong his claim that the VP is not mentioned as part of the Article on legislative branch - It is.

Biden got 23 thing wrongs - lies, misstatements, evasions, errors, gaffes - 23 THINGS!!

Biden's Lies

"This woman, by insinuating that Obama should rath...

2008-10-04T00:04:00.000-04:00

"This woman, by insinuating that Obama should rather lie, and deny that civilians HAVE been killed in Afghanistan, has now, beyond any doubt, what so ever, proven herself, to be completely and utterly incompetent for this job."

Palin told the truth in calling out Obama's statements as wrong. Obama said a horrible and disgusting thing that was disgraceful and dishonest. Obama said that we were air-bombing villages. He should have, but never did apologize for his insult to our military.

Then again, Obama has a certain hubris and arrogance to him, like his "clingers" comment.

By your same standard, that a comment that is out of line disqualifies someone for P or VP - you are in effect agreeing with Governor Palin's standard here. Well done, good job affirming her.

My take on the "Why isn't Obama further ahead?" rh...

2008-10-03T23:59:00.000-04:00

My take on the "Why isn't Obama further ahead?" rhetoric:

"The person asking has the implied assumption that everyone in the country is a clear-thinking, well-informed potential voter."

If people were clear-thinking and well-informed, they would come to know that Obama's accomplishments are nonexistent, and that he is an elitist and extremist who is out of step with America's values. He offers nothing but more socialism at home and more defeatism abroad.

The Obama campaign is the biggest bamboozling operation in American history.