Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Georgia Senate Race

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2009-08-28T03:31:46.387-04:00

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2009-03-26T23:01:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T06:13:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T06:13:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:29:00.000-05:00

Don't toot your horns guys. The GA senate is not e...

2008-11-04T22:07:00.000-05:00

Don't toot your horns guys. The GA senate is not even close. Chambliss is going to win the seat as I had projected. I live in this shitty state, I know these bucolic rednecks:

Chabmliss win is guaranteed

However, if you take a look closer, you'll notice that all the major counties which rack up hundreds of TP's haven't been reported as it's expected to come online after 11 PM. Nonetheless, the projection from these counties won't be enough to buy Democrats another Senate seat; I wish it did, but it's not going to happen, period and neither the presidential vote. I know these people better than anyone else. I am just happy Obama just got Ohio and eventually Virginia (Fairfax and Alexandra counties which I lived once when I worked in DC are being reported 2 to 1 for Obama which raps up another 50k to compensate for 15k that Obama is behind right now) and hopefully NC and FL -- he is doing well too.

wow, with 64% polls reporting in GA, 19% lead for ...

2008-11-04T22:05:00.000-05:00

wow, with 64% polls reporting in GA, 19% lead for McCain and 16% for Chambliss. How on earth were polls pretty accurate everywhere else, yet every pollster was off by at least 10 points in GA?

Note: the vote totals for Pres and Senate races to...

2008-11-04T21:39:00.000-05:00

Note: the vote totals for Pres and Senate races total about 1.4 million at this point, which is far less than the early vote totals. So clearly they are not included at this point. (nearly 42% of the AA voters voted early)

BTW, FOX calls Ohio for Obama. With Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, this race looks to be over.

"If Chambliss doesn't reach 50, FiveThirtyEight is...

2008-11-04T21:07:00.000-05:00

"If Chambliss doesn't reach 50, FiveThirtyEight is getting back in the car and heading for Georgia."

I don't know how to thank you for your dedication. What a service to us all.

I think if the Democrats win 59 seats the runoff c...

2008-11-04T21:06:00.000-05:00

I think if the Democrats win 59 seats the runoff could give an advantage to Chambliss through a "Stop the Dems" message, given Georgia is a conservative state. Voting today most people won't be nearly as aware of what the other results are expected to be, but campaigning in the runoff would be different. You'd have less anger at the incumbent Republican presidency (given a near certain Obama win, he will be a pseudo-incumbent by that point) and with a filibuster proof majority in the balance it'd be easy to paint it as the last defense to a total Democratic sweep.

Although, if the Dems reach 58 seats, perhaps you'd be able to get more conservative voters to vote Democrat on the basis that "there are still enough Republicans to block a filibuster anyway".

A runoff is not a "special election." It's require...

2008-11-04T21:04:00.000-05:00

A runoff is not a "special election." It's required by Georgia law (if no one gets at least one vote more than 50% today).

They called ND for McCain, but not SD, NE, KS. Tha...

2008-11-04T21:02:00.000-05:00

They called ND for McCain, but not SD, NE, KS. That's too weird.

Jakam said...With Hagen just called the winner in ...

2008-11-04T21:01:00.000-05:00

Jakam said...

With Hagen just called the winner in NC and an apparent win for Obama, I think the single biggest defeat of the night is the defeat of gutter politics. They don't work anymore. And good riddance.

I totally agree with that. Get rid of that crap. Obama ran a really clean and upstanding campaign.

Is it 50% or 49%? The CNN guy said 49% but he cert...

2008-11-04T20:59:00.000-05:00

Is it 50% or 49%? The CNN guy said 49% but he certainly could be wrong or I could have misunderstood him.

that's crazy

2008-11-04T20:58:00.000-05:00

that's crazy

Come on Georgia!

2008-11-04T20:57:00.000-05:00

Come on Georgia!

With Hagen just called the winner in NC and an app...

2008-11-04T20:56:00.002-05:00

With Hagen just called the winner in NC and an apparent win for Obama, I think the single biggest defeat of the night is the defeat of gutter politics. They don't work anymore. And good riddance.

The best capper to that would be a Chambliss defeat, as payback for 2002.

I notice you haven't yet 'called' GA for McCain......

2008-11-04T20:56:00.001-05:00

I notice you haven't yet 'called' GA for McCain...

Damn it looks sluggish

2008-11-04T20:56:00.000-05:00

Damn it looks sluggish