Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Connecticut

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2009-09-25T07:55:03.915-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:28:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-17T05:57:00.000-05:00

If Lieberman wants to run again, he'll have to fac...

2008-10-20T06:50:00.000-04:00

If Lieberman wants to run again, he'll have to face someone from the Connecticut for Lieberman Party.

http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:MpDth1q6gUwJ:www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-joeparty0916.artsep16,0,5483457.story+hartford+courant+connecticut+for+lieberman&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

I refuse to call the SHU poll an outlier because i...

2008-10-20T03:11:00.000-04:00

I refuse to call the SHU poll an outlier because it really seems to capture Shays's bipartisan support. Kerry won this county by approximately 4% in 2004. This Shays +10 poll also gives Obama a 10% lead on McCain. The obvious conclusion here is that Obama voters in Southwest CT are willing to split their ballot.

I think those who project a loss for Shays aren't very observant. The anti-Republican tides have ebbed quite a bit since 2006, a year in which he won.

Shays is the most centrist congressman in America,...

2008-10-20T02:51:00.000-04:00

Shays is the most centrist congressman in America, and his voting record supports it. He's voted against his party more than any other GOP congressman during the bush years.

Generally Shays loses Bridgeport/Stamford, breaks even or wins left leaning burbs like Westport, and makes significant time in Fiscally Right towns like Darien and Greenwich. What's going to hurt him is that African Americans in Bridgeport/Stamford are going to turn out in droves to vote for Obama, and will vote for his opponent while he's there. When we look at the numbers at the end of the race, I think we'll find that he got at least as many votes as 2006, but dem turnout increased enough in urban areas to defeat him.

Nicholas -The SHU poll was highly suspect. Subsequ...

2008-10-20T01:27:00.000-04:00

Nicholas -
The SHU poll was highly suspect. Subsequent polling confirms rumored internals from both Shays and Himes camps. Himes is ahead by about 3 points, within the margin of error of 4 pts.

Shays' rather weird behavior in public statements has confirmed that he is currently headed for defeat.

I comment on that here:
http://www.yourct.com/new/2008/10/18/himes-and-shays-at-norwalk-inn/

Shays is up 10 in a Sacred Heart poll, as Fairfiel...

2008-10-19T22:25:00.000-04:00

Shays is up 10 in a Sacred Heart poll, as Fairfield County leans conservative.

Sorry Bryen.

Keep an eye on Shays/Himes and Connecticut here:ht...

2008-10-18T21:20:00.000-04:00

Keep an eye on Shays/Himes and Connecticut here:
http://www.yourct.com

Himes is closing strong on Shays, who is folding like a cheap suitcase. It is possible Shays will survive, but the latest polling is showing the race tight and moving toward Himes. New polling due out early in the week.

The state Democratic Central Committee will be voting on a resolution of censure of Lieberman at its December meeting - it will be covered on the blogs and likely by the msm.

If Lieberman is stripped of his committee chairmanship, look for him to step out soon. Here's a bit about that: http://www.yourct.com/new/2008/10/14/the-end-of-the-lieberera/

This would mean that both of CT's Senate seats be on the ballot in 2010. It is within the realm of possibility that Dodd's could also be an open seat.

Nate & co - really appreciate the site - use it and cite it often.

Brad:Lets get Bachmaann and her McCarthy-ism out o...

2008-10-18T19:00:00.000-04:00

Brad:

Lets get Bachmaann and her McCarthy-ism out of office.

http://www.actblue.com/page/nonewmccarthy

Here is a petition calling for her censure:

http://www.censurebachmann.com/

Lieberman should (and probably will) lose his chai...

2008-10-18T18:07:00.000-04:00

Lieberman should (and probably will) lose his chairmanship, but he can stay in caucus if he so desire (preferably he should make a public gesture of support for Obama).

Unless the Democrats end up with 51 or less seats ...

2008-10-18T16:25:00.000-04:00

Unless the Democrats end up with 51 or less seats or exactly 60 (including the two independents) I hope Reid pulls the trigger on Lieberman.

If you wanted to run against Bush, you should have...

2008-10-18T15:45:00.000-04:00

If you wanted to run against Bush, you should have done it in 2004

If you wanted to vote for McCain so much, you should have voted for him in 2000. Republicans thought Bush was better than McCain and we know how Bush turned out to be. Obviously McCain is going to be worse than Bush.

"oct said... The southern strategery is not so ...

2008-10-18T15:42:00.000-04:00

"oct said...

The southern strategery is not so good without FL and VA and NM and CO. That is the real problem the Repubs face."

Actually the real problem is "what is the Republican party going to do without Virginia, Florida, North Carolina?

There isn't much of a "Southern Strategy" left!

It's more a "Deep Southern + the Great Plains" strategy now.

By 2018 Texas will be blue as Hispanics increase their numbers and voting.

Georgia will flip. About the only thing left of the "Reagan coalition" will be Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and the deep South, plus Tennessee, and Kentucky.

It's going to be a lonely world for Republicans over the next 8 years.

Worse, they are going to have to expressly abandon the "angry white working class voter" to have any hope of winning the Presidency ever again. That won't make the declining base of their party very happy.

But, former Whigs weren't happy their party dissolved either back in the 19th century. If Republicans want to avoid becoming the 21st century Whig Party, they can't keep ignoring minorities!

Well, Real Joe - I think we can safely say TX and ...

2008-10-18T15:30:00.000-04:00

Well, Real Joe - I think we can safely say TX and OK are safe.

Dallas morning news endorses McCain

2008-10-18T15:29:00.000-04:00

Dallas morning news endorses McCain

The southern strategery is not so good without FL ...

2008-10-18T15:22:00.000-04:00

The southern strategery is not so good without FL and VA and NM and CO. That is the real problem the Repubs face.

Palin isn't drawing any female votes. Nytimes

2008-10-18T15:20:00.000-04:00

Palin isn't drawing any female votes. Nytimes

Think twice before moving to Europe.France, Italy ...

2008-10-18T15:18:00.000-04:00

Think twice before moving to Europe.
France, Italy and Spain are saturated with nightmarishly bureaucracy. The food, culture and the history is interesting, for a while, then one starts missing space,courtesy and common sense.

Of course an an American living abroad I'd love to have Obama as my president, but after living years in New Zealand and Australia, I'm having difficulties finding better places to raise my family. Europe.
France, Italy and Spain are saturated with nightmarishly bureaucracy. The food, culture and the history is interesting, for a while, then one starts missing space,courtesy and common sense.

After two years in France, we're moving back to Australia or New Zealand, even if Obama gets elected.

I have posted before about how the Southern Strate...

2008-10-18T15:14:00.000-04:00

I have posted before about how the Southern Strategy of the Republican party since 1968 has run its course. I think its getting to the point were they might have to ask themselves if its worth it anymore. They ceded the North East (N England, New York, NJ, MD, PA) to do so. And that is worth a similar amount of EVs. Add in California and the Northwest pair of WA and OR and some of the midwestern states like Minnesota and Michigan, and you are going to get close to 270 more times than not.

That pic of Obama in MO is golden!Just mailed our ...

2008-10-18T15:09:00.000-04:00

That pic of Obama in MO is golden!

Just mailed our absentee ballots ( on vacationelection week)....2 proud American votes for Obama/Biden in patriotic Western PA!!!

When I was voting in my first election back in the...

2008-10-18T15:08:00.000-04:00

When I was voting in my first election back in the 1970s I voted for Republican Stewart McKinney of CT. I looked up his record, and found he was more liberal than his Democratic opponent! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stewart_McKinney_(politician)

In those days before Newt Gingrich polarized Congress it was possible for a Republican to be a liberal, and for a Democrat to be more conservative than some Republicans.

The Reagan right purged their party of all moderates and liberals. In the process they solidified the South (temporarily) as a Republican stronghold.

But, they lost the Northeast, and the upper Mid-west in the process (Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa), then the far west (California, Oregon, Washington).

Now finally, they are losing the upper South (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), as well as the Rocky Mountain West (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana).

Americans have rejected the extremist politics of Reagan long after Reagan died. It took a generation to destroy the Republican party as a governing coalition, but they've succeeded in ways beyond my wildest dreams during the dark days of the 1984 election!

Trickle-down economics? Militarism abroad and endless increases in defense at home? Tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires?

GONE! All Gone!

It's going to be a New Deal, really whether Obama wants it or not. Massive and continuing government intervention in the economy is going to be necessary on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.

It's a brand new world people! Republicans? Get used to it!

new thread

2008-10-18T15:07:00.000-04:00

new thread

Miami Herald and Denver Post endorse Obama

2008-10-18T15:04:00.001-04:00

Miami Herald and Denver Post endorse Obama

SCOTUS: The Last Redoubt of our LibertyEavesdropp...

2008-10-18T15:04:00.000-04:00

SCOTUS: The Last Redoubt of our Liberty

Eavesdropping is terrible and the nation must re-examine its security priories. Much as we did after WW2 and realized that measures such as the forced dislocation and internment of Japanese citizens and permanent residents was violative of Constitutional Rights, so we may reconsider the security measures that the Bush Admin took.

The Courts can and will ultimately resolve this. Notice that the Conservative Supreme Ct lead by Justice Roberts has required trials in the case of terrorist detainees and has mandated a "hands off" attitude on the part of the Courts where it comes to electoral disputes (OH registration case this week). We might be seeing the beginning of the unraveling of Bush v. Gore.

The point of course is that these things tend to be self-correcting and that the public order must be allowed a certain amount of flex to accommodate extraordinary circumstances.

Permanent legislative action can be unwise and executive orders more effective. As long as the Court stands by as the arbiter of last resort.