Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Secretary of State a Stepping Stone?

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2009-10-02T05:43:56.429-04:00

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2009-04-16T21:55:00.000-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:39:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:56:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:56:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:27:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:43:00.000-05:00

it seems like, if Hillary becomes the Sec. State, ...

2008-11-20T14:36:00.000-05:00

it seems like, if Hillary becomes the Sec. State, then there will be some serious personality and agenda conflict between her and Obama

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-giordano/mr-presi...

2008-11-18T13:37:00.000-05:00

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-giordano/mr-president-elect-judge_b_144523.html

Chock full of reasons NOT to make HRC SoS and I COULDNT AGREE MORE! DONT DO IT MR PRESIDENT ELECT!

Sign me,
Worried

I'm in touch with some of the powerful unions in N...

2008-11-17T11:09:00.000-05:00

I'm in touch with some of the powerful unions in New York State and have some insight into Hillary as Governor.

My sense is--not gonna happen. I was a strong proponent of this idea in the spring if Hillary was interested in running for prez again. It would give her distance from DC if things didn't work out there, give her the much vaunted "executive experience," and allow her to push some signature initiatives through a friendly legislature.

But now that Paterson has declared that he is running, I don't see it happening. Yeah, she might be able to win a primary, especially as Paterson is alienating the powerful unions in the state. The unions would put their muscle behind her and she obviously is popular in the state to begin with.

But if she wants to be president, how does she get there by running against a sitting African-American governor in a primary? How would she ever have hope of winning the Black vote in a national Democratic primary again? And that leaves an opening for someone in 2016 to pull together Obama's coalition again (Blacks, young voters, and educated voters) to defeat her.

Now she might want to be governor just to be governor and not care about it as a stepping stone. But that doesn't sound like Hillary to me. She'll either settle for Senator-for-life or figure out a way to become president. Running against Paterson doesn't cut it, even though I'd prefer her in Albany over him.

It's pretty simple... SoS is an offer HRC can simp...

2008-11-17T08:28:00.000-05:00

It's pretty simple... SoS is an offer HRC can simply accept or refuse. President must be fought for in a future campaign with no guarantee of success. Future speaking engagements and book deals will probably be more lucrative for a Secretary of State+senator+past presidential candidate than for a senator with two failed prez bids under her belt. America doesn't like losers much.

I think she'll go for the sure thing and take the SoS job. Even if it is her last in politics. Sorry, but I don't think HRC ever has or ever will put Country ahead of Clinton.

I am beginning to think that possibly this Clinton...

2008-11-17T03:10:00.000-05:00

I am beginning to think that possibly this Clinton to State idea is at least partially designed to get certain groups to pipe down about Obama's Cabinet choices. I think Obama is committed to excellence above diversity in his Cabinet. He would like diversity, but I don't think he will sacrifice excellence for it.

I bring this up with regard to the firestorm generated among various feminist groups regarding the prospective appointment of the individual who is the consensus best choice for Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers.

There has been much discussion prompted by Republicans, including the McCain campaign, and by the media, that Obama has never really stood up against any prominent interest groups within the Democratic Party. By opposing Summers, these feminist groups are presenting Obama with the ideal opportunity to demonstrate that he will not be cowed by interest groups. It's the right thing to do. Obama should appoint Summers and if that means getting the feminist groups riled up, so be it. Let them whine all the want. It will only serve to enhance Obama's bona fides as someone who puts the national interest ahead of parochial interests within his own party.

However, I am thinking he might be thinking that a Clinton to State appointment might be a way to checkmate the feminist groups when it comes to their complaints about Summers or any other Cabinet appointments, and if Clinton accepts the post at Foggy Bottom, she'll be on Obama's team and will be unable to complain about appointments outside the State Department.

I am sure that if Clinton is appointed Secretary of State, Obama will be sure to install one of his foreign policy advisors as Deputy Secretary, the number two slot at State. Maybe Susan Rice, who is a former Assistant Secretary for African Affairs? It'd be awfully tough for Clinton to complain about an African-American female Deputy Secretary.

Don't discount the possibility that this is essentially a very Machiavellian move on Obama's part. It would take Clinton out of domestic political discussions, and it could mean he placates the feminist groups who oppose Summers by appointing Clinton. And if those groups on the left still want to whine about Summers after Obama appoints him to Treasury, it only enhances Obama's stature.

If her/Clinton legacy is of prime importance, I th...

2008-11-16T21:33:00.000-05:00

If her/Clinton legacy is of prime importance, I think being the champion of the people at SCOTUS would be my choice. There will be an opening within months, and she'd breeze through hearings.
I'd like the ability to bitch-slap the smug federalist swine unto death do us part, were I HRC.

sfergus483 The reason the congressionial district ...

2008-11-16T17:32:00.000-05:00

sfergus483

The reason the congressionial district allocation system wouldn't work now is that CDs are gerrymandered for one party rule. We would have to (and I think this is a good idea anyway) find an objective, nonpartisan rubric for drawing district lines for it to work, but I think that's in our best interest regardless of whether or not we change the electoral college.

As it stands, however, the current winner-take-all system is the worst possible outcome, except for all of the others currently being suggested (to paraphrase Winston Churchill).

My own perspective on this:Well...Hillary may be 6...

2008-11-16T14:51:00.000-05:00

My own perspective on this:

Well...Hillary may be 69 by 2017, but I don't think that her ambitions will allow her to let that little fact get in the way of her pursuit for the Presidency. She'll still have to deal with the younger rivals (Schweiter, Bayh, Edwards, and quite possibly Powell or Jessie Jackson, Jr.), so even if she is successful as a Secretary of State, she would still have a modest road to climb; her succession is not by any means assured.

Personally, I'd have no problem whatsoever with her as SecState, not only because she is totally qualified and would enhance the position quite well; but it would do a lot to heal the deep wounds of Hillary supporters still not quite on the same team with Obama. The only problem I would see would be if Bill the Hubby decided to exploit her position as SoS to launch back bench criticisms of Obama from the sidelines. Hopefully, Bubba the Clenis would be smart enough to keep his mouth shut and at least give BHO some credit and support for governing his own way.

As for the possibility of Hillary getting the SoS slot and then pulling a double switch with Biden in '12: I'd tend against it, unless Biden's hiding something about his present health. It would sound kinda foolish if Obama really is as successful as it seems he will be (especially if the Dems do well enough in the 2010 midterms and lock up their filibuster-proof majorities in the Senate and an ironclad supermajority in the House) to go out and switch Veeps in mid stream just to suit Hillary's ambitions. Plus, the whole nepotism issue would come into play: I don't quite think that even the Democratic base could stand a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama-Clinton succession...and I know for darn sure the Repubs and the right-wing populist base would absolutely revolt.

Actually, I'd say that the real threat to the emerging permanent Dem majority will come as much from the Left as from the Right, especially if Obama does decide to follow all the conventional wisdom press clippings and govern like Jimmy Carter did from the center-right. Maybe there won't be Ralph Nader to kick around as a "spoiler" anymore, but there will be someone who will attempt to revive the "populist Left" label....maybe a Kucinich or a Marcy Kaptur or even a rehabilitated Cynthia McKinney, perhaps???

Whether it would help her or not (if she is thinki...

2008-11-16T14:48:00.000-05:00

Whether it would help her or not (if she is thinking of running in 2016) I think it would be very hard for Hillary to turn down SoS. Personally I think she'd be great as either Supreme Court Justic or Majority leader (in many ways she's a more natural fit for those positions), but I can't see her just sitting around hoping things fall in place just right so those things happen. SoS is something now. She's ambitious and while it's not President, it's a step up from junior senator from New York, and essentially the most prominant position in any administration outside Pres and Vice Pres.

I think if she goes to SoS, should Obama serve two terms, she'd be in that position for most if not all of those eight years. After that she can go elder stateswoman, or run for Pres if things are aligned just right to. I really doubt she runs for President again.

while i don't think HRC lost due to gender, i do t...

2008-11-16T14:20:00.000-05:00

while i don't think HRC lost due to gender, i do think society has less acceptance of older women in positions of power.

no way she runs in 2016.

Another Mike, and whoever posted this originally,w...

2008-11-16T13:52:00.000-05:00

Another Mike, and whoever posted this originally,why are we talking about racist states on this post?

As for Biden being replaced in 2012, I certainly hope he won't and believe he won't, but it wouldn't be the first time that happened. Prior to Nixon's two terms as VP, it was far more common for a president to pick a different VP the second time around (or thirt and fourth in Roosevelt's case).
And as for former presidents serving on the Supreme Court, his name was William Howard Taft.

First I'd have to say I think Hilary would be a po...

2008-11-16T13:50:00.000-05:00

First I'd have to say I think Hilary would be a poor choice for SOS. I like the idea of Richardson though.

I really think it would be a bad choice for her as well if in fact she has presidential aspirations. People tend to vote more on domestic policy than foreign. If she got HSS or something like that, I think both she and Obama would be better served.

However, I think as a senator, even without chairmanships, she could do more to enhance her chances as a candidate by introducing and working for diverse legislation on which she could build her campaign. Same thing if she were to run for Governor (actually, I think that could be an even stronger launching pad for a second shot since it would give her real executive experience).

I didn't care for her campaign, and I voted for Obama in the primaries, but I don't discard her out of hand (even though I was pretty angry at the type of campaign she ran for a while). I think Bill is kind of an albatross around her neck politically, but I also think that she could again diminish this significantly with a solid term as governor (gives her a real shot at showing her independence from Bill, which I think many people have concerns with, rightly or wrongly).

I think age can make a difference also. McCain seemed awful fragile to me, though ultimately my decision to vote for Obama didn't turn on that. On the other hand, I think Hilary is holding up pretty well so far, and as long as she shows vibrancy at age 69, it wouldn't factor into my decision.

Just some thoughts....

Have we found the racist states?http://www.pollste...

2008-11-16T13:02:00.000-05:00

Have we found the racist states?

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/white_vote_for_obama_in_the_st_1.php

Did whites in those states not vote for Obama because he's black or because he's a Democrat? I'd want to compare their vote for Kerry to their vote for Obama before drawing any conclusions.

It seems clear that HC is not a viable candidate f...

2008-11-16T12:14:00.000-05:00

It seems clear that HC is not a viable candidate for President in 2016. Her age will disqualify her with many voters, and she's bound to have additional baggage as she did this time -- imagine all the mischief that Bill can yet get into over 8 years. And, yes, there have been persistent and credible rumors that Bill was not the only one who strayed from his marriage vows.

My hunch is that SofS is not viable either. I'm not sure Obama could live with her, and I don't see her as being particularly well qualified for that position. My guess is that floating her for the position is a bit of a smokescreen. Although not recently mentioned Sen. Lugar would be an interesting appointment -- he and Obama are friendly and he certainly has the foreign policy experience. This would be a great way to "reach across the aisle" and to get a well qualified person to boot. Lugar has said he doesn't want the job, but we'll see.

As for HC. I voted for her in the primaries and still think she would have been an excellent President despite an incompetent and somewhat angry campaign. She cares deeply about health care and could help Obama immensely with that by remaining in the Senate.

I wouldn't be surprised to see her nominated for the Supreme Court. Of course being SofS does not rule that out There will almost certainly be 3 vacancies in the next 4 years. Ginsburg is in poor health (although saying she has no plans to retire), Stevens is 88 and showing his age, and Souter is reportedly unhappy on the Court. Of course, Obama does need to factor in age, but one appointment could go to an older person. Given the morale problems with the GOP and the increased Democratic majority in the Senate, Obama may get a pass or two from the Senate on a Court appointment or two.

We can all agree that the next few weeks will be interesting.

O/T (but I've been waiting for a new topic to star...

2008-11-16T12:05:00.000-05:00

O/T (but I've been waiting for a new topic to start...)

Fascinating map here http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/
showing how voting in the South reflected some old demographic patterns. Perhaps something Nate could expand on for us?

Hillary should be Secretary of Health and Human Se...

2008-11-16T10:59:00.000-05:00

Hillary should be Secretary of Health and Human Services, and lead the charge for Health Care Reform. It's what she says she wants. Check this out.

http://www.pragmaticpundit.com/2008/11/cabinet-of-choice-if-i-were-obama.html

Nate, Nate, Nate...As much as I have appreciated y...

2008-11-16T10:48:00.000-05:00

Nate, Nate, Nate...As much as I have appreciated your statistical skills in the election (especially the Senate recount projections), I must say the basis for your Hillary projection is a bit on the flaky side.

What Hillary knows now is the specific knowledge that she has the potential to be a fine SoS. But it's only a potential. What she doesn't know about the domestic/international situation four or eight years in the future is, well, so close to zero as to be negligible. To base her current decision on such future unknowns would be tantamount to her belief in a psychic ability far beyond the pale of human insight.

I like to think that I'm a member of the reality-based community, one who wants little more than to do the right thing now that allows for a better future. The right thing now for the country is for Hillary to accept the SoS position, do what she can to make the world a better place, and let the future unfold and take care of itself.

So, how's about a projection as to when two-thirds of Republicans will finally answer "yes" to the following question: "Was Sarah Palin qualified to become vice-president?" Four years? Eight years? Next century? That would tell us all a great deal more about Hillary's chances for the Oval Office than anything.

Love your work, keep it up.

Charlie-She is a great choice for SoS as long as B...

2008-11-16T10:42:00.000-05:00

Charlie-

She is a great choice for SoS as long as Bill's taking money from everyone and their mother overseas does not create a conflict of interest.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Secretary of State a Stepping Stone?

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

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情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

it seems like, if Hillary becomes the Sec. State, ...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-giordano/mr-presi...

I'm in touch with some of the powerful unions in N...

It's pretty simple... SoS is an offer HRC can simp...

I am beginning to think that possibly this Clinton...

If her/Clinton legacy is of prime importance, I th...

sfergus483 The reason the congressionial district ...

My own perspective on this:Well...Hillary may be 6...

Whether it would help her or not (if she is thinki...

while i don't think HRC lost due to gender, i do t...

Another Mike, and whoever posted this originally,w...

First I'd have to say I think Hilary would be a po...

Have we found the racist states?http://www.pollste...

It seems clear that HC is not a viable candidate f...

O/T (but I've been waiting for a new topic to star...

Hillary should be Secretary of Health and Human Se...

Nate, Nate, Nate...As much as I have appreciated y...

Charlie-She is a great choice for SoS as long as B...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...