Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: VP: Short the Faves

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T07:01:10.069-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-11T07:42:30.482-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T22:11:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T22:11:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-15T02:27:00.000-05:00

Timing on Palin VP announcement:1. Several days af...

2008-08-03T14:47:00.000-04:00

Timing on Palin VP announcement:

1. Several days after gasline passed in Alaska.

2. Several days before the Olympics.

3. Ideally before Obama names his Veep (especially if Obama were to name a woman or Hillary).

Hey, McCain, why not Monday (tomorrow Aug 4) and LET THE GAMES BEGIN already!!!

In any event, stand by this week!

McCain campaign is vetting Eric Cantor, according ...

2008-08-03T12:26:00.000-04:00

McCain campaign is vetting Eric Cantor, according to Mark Halperin's The Page. Bet on Cantor as your long shot.

test

2008-08-03T11:03:00.000-04:00

test

Short the faves--for McCain, a long shot is Virgin...

2008-08-02T15:32:00.000-04:00

Short the faves--for McCain, a long shot is Virginia congressman Eric Cantor. Young, the only Jewish republican in congress.

For Obama--no need to spring a surprise. I hope it will be Tim Kaine, a change choice and a good governing fit choice.

McCain's logical choice is Romney. Hope he picks someone else!

There is a little voice whispering in the back of ...

2008-08-02T13:53:00.000-04:00

There is a little voice whispering in the back of my mind saying that Richardson will be Obama's VP.

Others may disagree, but I'm feeling some electric...

2008-08-02T13:25:00.000-04:00

Others may disagree, but I'm feeling some electricity in the air... feels like... Joe-mentum!!

Anon-George Allen will probably be in McCain's cab...

2008-08-02T13:22:00.000-04:00

Anon-

George Allen will probably be in McCain's cabinet, in all seriousness.

Oh, please please PLEASE God let Obama pick Gore. Have I really been a virtuous enough person to see Vice President Bore on the ticket again?

I'm w/ nagging feeling, distraction/chess, no CW, ...

2008-08-02T13:09:00.000-04:00

I'm w/ nagging feeling, distraction/chess, no CW, field, convention week, surprise, and (I'm completely serious) Gore. I know, but think about it again.

Since the only things Obama has ever said about th...

2008-08-02T13:03:00.000-04:00

Since the only things Obama has ever said about the VP pick are that he's looking for someone who shares his outlook for the country and approach to governing, I'm inclined to take him at his word and assume that will be the basis for his pick, not geographic or demographic concerns. I also assume that he's smart enough to know how little influence the VP pick has electorally vs. how much influence it may have in his administration's long-term course, since if he wins, his VP is the one most likely to succeed him.

For those reasons, I don't put much stock in choices like Bayh (or worse, Hagel), who may look good for electoral or "image" reasons but don't particularly match up on the direction of the country.

And finally, I look to one of the campaign's principles, "No Drama," along with the traditional principle that the VP pick can't help you much, but it can hurt you. To me, that's the most obvious reason why Clinton is out -- no matter what electoral advantages she brings, she undeniably brings drama and even chaos.

I think both campaigns need a governor or someone ...

2008-08-02T13:01:00.001-04:00

I think both campaigns need a governor or someone with equivalent administrative experience, for two reasons: Both candidates are weak in this area (McCain possibly weaker than Obama once people look behind the image and ask if he is even running his own campaign) and to bolster the "ready to take over" factor. The exception would be HRC, for the reasons stated in the comments.

I would not worry much about name recognition in the polls, since most are unknown outside the region, but I would worry about getting the person's story out before the other side does. Any tunnel collapse, flood response, or financial crisis in the recent past or near future that would look good in black-and-white ads?

Nate,Incase you haven't seen this article already,...

2008-08-02T13:01:00.000-04:00

Nate,
Incase you haven't seen this article already, here's link:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0138628820080801
It's title is "Economic models predict clear Obama win in November"

RE: what this post brings up about the VP's primar...

2008-08-02T12:56:00.000-04:00

RE: what this post brings up about the VP's primary responsibility of assuming power in crisis, Tim Kaine may be the best-suited. He ran for city council in the first place to bridge racial divisions. We can assume Obama highly respects that and recognizes its potential value. Obama has spoken of the power of words and Kaine came through admirably in that respect during a difficult time last year. There is no doubt about Kaine's loyalty to Obama. I don't think it's a smokescreen as much as it is a trial balloon to gauge where he registers on the do no harm during the election rule. They must have noticed some rough wind resistance. The press, assisted by the netroots, opened up the issues that would be raised. Simultaneously, McCain opened a run for a new narrative: Obamamania is all just hype, but is he ready to lead? And the Obama defense allowed racial politics to slip into the conversation. Given the implicit McCain challenge to Obama to prove he has substance, I wonder if Kaine became a little less likely relative to say Biden.

I predict Sebelius would be more offensive to Hillary's male fanatics than to female (see: Lanny Davis). But the actual issue is the press would lazily play on the other woman issue. The NY POST cover would say "A WOMAN SCORNED" with a photo of Hillary looking mad. Obama would have to fight the (absurd) narrative that he did it to piss on Hillary/pander to women. It's not hard to dispose of that since Sebelius is a perfect match philosophically and in resume for Obama, a good governing partner, also loyal. Easy to show the pick as gender-blind... if you can get people to listen.

I couldn't agree more re the Obama campaign - i wo...

2008-08-02T12:46:00.000-04:00

I couldn't agree more re the Obama campaign - i wonder how many people have been vetted who the media don't know about.

re the Republicans though, an 'out of the box' idea would have to be complete genius to help McCain. he's just got to many problems with the base to pick anyone other than a pretty safe option. And given the low probability of him running (again) in 2012, he's also picking the presumptive Republican nominee for that election. So his choices are very limited, and imho they are either Pawlenty (who, we forget, as well as a very successful governor, is also loved by the evangelicals) or Romney.

I'm more inclined to think Obama's staff is using ...

2008-08-02T12:33:00.000-04:00

I'm more inclined to think Obama's staff is using econometrics in selecting a VP, while Team McCain uses "gut," much the same way Bush saw into Putin's soul.

Second, being a novice to prediction markets, I'd bet the pick is a lot easier for McCain and thus the markets will more quickly narrow the range of acceptable choices, thus limiting payouts.

Where fiction can inform reality:In The West Wing,...

2008-08-02T12:29:00.000-04:00

Where fiction can inform reality:

In The West Wing, president Jed Bartlett has a seriously rocky relationship (personal and political) with his VP, John Hoynes.

But he decides to stick with him for his second campaign. They're in the oval office, and Hoynes looks perplexed, asks him "why?"

Bartlett writes something on a piece of paper, hands it to him. Hoynes opens it:

"Because I might die."

I like to hope that Obama's operating on that level.

Wesley Clark for VP!

I am someone who was staunchly against an Obama/Cl...

2008-08-02T12:20:00.000-04:00

I am someone who was staunchly against an Obama/Clinton ticket following the primaries. But the more I think about it, the more I like it.

You want someone to be your attack dog? Well, in the words of Bill, you'd get "Two for the price of one."

Yeah, she'd energize the right. But Democrats have a nine point partisan ID advantage. If Obama sews up the Democratic vote... it's going to take an overwhelming majority of independents to sway that advantage back to McCain.

The VP pick almost always seems to be personality-...

2008-08-02T12:18:00.000-04:00

The VP pick almost always seems to be personality-rather-tahn-policy-based, and designed to serve as a cautious counterweight to the prevailing idea of the candidate's most salient personality traits.

Stolid, plodding Gore picked puckish, happy- warrior Lieberman. Brash youthful Bush picked cold, hard, elder statesman Cheney. Elite aloof Kerry picked folksy populist Edwards, etc. etc.

So here's how to make the VP choice: (some of you math whiz types could probably put this into an equation :-)... pick the candidate's two most defining personality traits. Call them a and b. Pick two traits most diametriaclly opposed to these, and call them x and y.

Now.. who among the various contenders is most liberally endowed with x and y?

There's your pick.

virginia conservativeAnd perhaps McCain should cho...

2008-08-02T12:16:00.000-04:00

virginia conservative
And perhaps McCain should choose your home state favorite George Allen. I hear he's available.

I'll offer my "favorite" choice for VP on the Dem ...

2008-08-02T12:11:00.000-04:00

I'll offer my "favorite" choice for VP on the Dem side--John Edwards, Senator Love Child himself.

Best case (maybe the only case) scenario for Palin...

2008-08-02T12:08:00.000-04:00

Best case (maybe the only case) scenario for Palin would be if Obama picks Biden.

Such a selection would effectively immunize Palin from the negatives of the unproven Troopergate, since the GOP could simply dredge up the old plagarism charge back at Biden.