Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, March 2009 Edition

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2010 US Senate Race.On the Democratic Side. The fo...

2009-04-08T13:14:33.497-04:00

2010 US Senate Race.
On the Democratic Side.
The following Democratic US Senate Seats up for grabs are safe.
HI(Inouye-D)
IN(Bayh-D)
MD(Mikulski-D)
NY(Schumer-D)
ND(Dorgan-D)
OR(Wyden-D)
VT(Leahy-D)

The following Democratic US Senate Seats up for grabs are Competitive but Democratic Incumbent is Strongly favored to win.
AR(Lincoln-D)
CA(Boxer-D)
CO(Bennett-D)front runner in primary and in the General Election.
DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D))- Beau Biden- front runner in the Democratic Primary and in the General Election.
IL(OPEN-Burris-D)- Alexi Giannoulias- front runner in the Democratic Primary and in the General Election.
NV(Reid-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)-front runner in the primary and in the General election.
WA(Murray-D)
WI(Feingold-D)

The Democratic US Senate Seat likely to fall in the Republican Collumn.
CT(Dodd-D)- Highly vulnerable because of the Mortgage and CEO bonus scandals.

On the Republican side.
The following Republican US Senate Seats are safe.
AL(Shelby-R)
AK(Murkowski-R)
AZ(McCain-R)
GA(Isakson-R)
ID(Crapo-R)
IA(Grassley-R)
KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)-
OK(Coburn-R)
SC(DeMint-R)
SD(Thune-R)
UT(Bennett-R)

The following Republican US Senate Seats are highly vulnerable.
FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)- If Governor Crist runs- FL stays Republican. If Crist does not run FL becomes a tossup.
KY(Bunning-R)- Bunning-R is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent facing re-election- ie (Rick Santorum-PA)column. Democrats will win KY seat if Bunning retires.
LA(Vitter-R)- Competitive but Vitter is favored to win in the general election.
MO(OPEN-Bond-R)- Democratic Nominee- Robin Carnahan-D is strongly favored to defeat Republican front runner Roy Blunt-R.
NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)- Democratic Nominee-Paul Hodes-D is strongly favored to win in the General Election.
NC(Burr-R)- Burr-R loses in the General Election if AG Roy Cooper runs(Santorum-R vs Casey-D). If a Second tier Democratic candidate runs- Burr loses due to a gaffe.
OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)- Republican nominee Rob Portman-R is the underdog in the General Election against Democratic candidates Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner.
PA(Specter-R)- If Specter loses in the Primary- Democratic pick up. If Specter wins- PA becomes a tossup assuming Allyson Schwartz runs.

Mike in Maryland (and nkpolitics1279):Michigan's c...

2009-03-29T15:42:32.337-04:00

Mike in Maryland (and nkpolitics1279):

Michigan's current redistricting *heavily* favors Republicans, because they controlled the Legislature, Governorship, and Supreme Court at the time. If they hadn't managed to lose two "safe" districts, even another pure Republican redistricting would have to have taken Michigan's (expected) lost seat out of the R column.

To put it in perspective, Rogers won his first race by a margin narrower than the 2000 Florida presidential election; radio stations were announcing "final" results with the Democrat winning.

Instead, she kept her spot in the State Senate. Two years later, she was term-limited. She was ambitious enough to have talked of statewide office before; the Green wouldn't be a spoiler again; the college town (and possibly Lansing as well) had fixed some issues that suppressed likely D voters. Despite all of this, she skipped the rematch to run for the lower house instead. When term-limited there, she sat out, then ran for the Michigan State University Board of Trustees.

It is likely that some of the D voters will be moved to Schauer's district to give him a chance at keeping the normally safe R seat. If not, the historical 8th may come back as either swing or safe D -- but with Rogers outside the District. Whether enough of his base would go with him, I don't know.

And how will this affect 2010? It might be enough to push Rogers into running for Governor himself, instead of running for re-election -- and that is a decision he has to make for 2010.

Vitter is now (more) up for grabs. http://voices.w...

2009-03-12T22:05:58.095-04:00

Vitter is now (more) up for grabs. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2009/03/la-sen_vitters_meltdown.html?wprss=thefix

If CT gets rid of Dodd while keeping Lieberman, th...

2009-03-09T22:58:42.536-04:00

If CT gets rid of Dodd while keeping Lieberman, then those jackasses deserve any bad thing they have coming to them.

The 2010 US Senate Election cycle has more Republi...

2009-03-09T14:23:03.039-04:00

The 2010 US Senate Election cycle has more Republican freshman members - Elected in Southern States due to George W Bush's coattails.
Martinez(FL)was narrowly elected in 2010. Had he faced re-election in 2010- He would have faced a tough re-election campaign and will probally lose. Martinez is retiring- FL is in the Tossup category.
Isakson(GA)elected by a landslide margin. Isakson is safe since Democrats were unable to unseat Chambliss(GA). Isakson is more moderate than Chambliss.
Vitter(LA)elected with 51% of the popular vote. against two Democrats. Louisiana does not have the open primary system anymore. Vitter has been vulnerable due to the DC Madam scandal. LA is competitive but Vitter is favored to win.
Burr(NC)- narrowly elected against Clinton WH Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles. A stronger Democrat like AG Roy Cooper or US Reps Mike McIntyre,or Heath Schuler will defeat Burr(NC)-
Coburn(OK)- elected in 2004 by a double digit margin. The only Democrat that can give Coburn a competitive race is Governor Brad Henry.
DeMint(SC)- elected in 2004 by a double digit margin. Strongly favored to win re-election.
Other Freshman Republican US Senators.
Murkowski(AK)- narrowly elected against ex Governor Tony Knowles. Democrats don't have a top tier challenger against Murkowski- Safe R.
Thune(SD)- narrowly defeated Tom Daschle. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin- is more likely to run for Governor or seek re-election to the US House. Safe-R.

2 Republican US Senators from purple States- Bond-MO and Voinovich-OH are retiring. Democrats are strongly favored to win MO(Carnahan) and OH(either Fisher or Brunner).

Democrat(Paul Hodes-NH)is strongly favored to win the open seat in NH- currently held by Judd Gregg(R-NH).

Other Blue State Republican Senators facing re-election in 2010.
Specter(PA)will lose in the GOP primary- or switch parties- Democratic pick up.
Grassley(IA)-is a potential retiree- Democratic pick up if IA is an open seat.

Bunning(KY)is the most vulnerable Republican US Senator facing re-election in 2010.

The open seat in KS(Brownback)is a safe Rep. Since the only top tier Democratic candidate Kathleen Sebelius is in the Obama cabinet.

The rest of the Republicans facing re-election in 2010 are safe except for AZ(McCain).

On the Democratic side. Democrats have 4 open seats in the 2010 US Senate election cycle- the special elections in DE and NY. DE(OPEN-Kaufman))is a Safe DEM(Beau Biden). NY(Gillibrand)is a Democratic Favored. the other open seats CO(Bennett) and IL(OPEN-Burris)are in the Democratic Favored. Other Democratic US Senators facing re-election in 2010 are strongly favored to win re-election in 2010.

Mike the Dyke in Maryland. I picked McCotter as th...

2009-03-09T13:02:59.053-04:00

Mike the Dyke in Maryland.

I picked McCotter as the target of redistricting because he along with Mike Rogers-MI-8,Gary Peters-D-MI-9 and Mark Schauer-MI-7 represent swing districts.

I've gotta agree with some of the other comments--...

2009-03-09T05:55:07.313-04:00

I've gotta agree with some of the other comments-- Carly Fiorina is the one to watch for the California senate race. She's got some polling issues right now, but a couple high standing Republicans I've spoken to have told me she's privately interested in giving it a shot. Who knows- it could be an interesting race if she can get over the breast cancer.

> Politics can be strange, though, and redistricti...

2009-03-09T05:46:03.351-04:00

> Politics can be strange, though, and redistricting can be even stranger.

True that, I find the US's use of a highly partisan process for setting electoral regions even more bizarre than the boundaries it produces. Very unhealthy as shown by those examples you gave. :(

nkpolitics1279,If'n youse says so.Politics can be ...

2009-03-09T04:35:19.457-04:00

nkpolitics1279,

If'n youse says so.

Politics can be strange, though, and redistricting can be even stranger.

As I said, maybe the Michigan legislature will stay split (Senate run by the GOOPers, House by the Democrats), but the governorship goes to the GOOPer candidate. The governor could veto any redistricting bill that made it more difficult for GOOPers to win House districts. And a court might or might not redistrict in a fashion that either party, or both parties, could back.

Know why some of the southern states (NC, GA and FL especially) suddenly have more black representation, while at the same time they became heavily GOOPer? The GOOPers in the legislature took some of the Democratic districts and poured many more probable Democratic voting precincts into those districts, then split out the GOOPer-heavy precincts and gave them to almost GOOPer districts. The result? A few VERY heavy Democratic districts, but many more GOOPer-friendly districts.

Similar to what Maryland did in 2001 - MD-8 (Montgomery County) was represented by Constance "Connie" Morella (a moderate Republican) from 1987 to 2003. For years, the Democrats were almost pulling their hair in trying to defeat her, but couldn't, even though there was about a 20 point registration differential favorable for the Democrats. In the 2001 redistricting, they took a small portion of mostly Democratic MD-4 (mostly Prince Georges County), and in exchange gave MD-4 a portion of the heavier GOOPer registration precincts in up-(Montgomery)county. Finally, in the 2002 election, Morella was beaten by Chris Van Hollen (51.71% - 47.49%). Since that first election, Van Hollen has won succeeding elections with 74.78%, 76.52%, and 75.15% of the vote. And MD-4 has gained a few more 'clean government' voters, a major reason why Donna Edwards was able to defeat Al Wynn.

BTW - all your talk about this geographic place will do this, that one will do that, makes absolutely NO sense to someone who is not intimate with the political makeup of Michigan. Don't tell us what will happen, tell us why something will happen. And just because you think it will happen does not mean it WILL happen, especially since we don't know all the players who will be involved, and won't until much closer to the 2010 election.

Mike in Maryland- When the Republicans controlled ...

2009-03-09T01:32:06.655-04:00

Mike in Maryland- When the Republicans controlled the Redistricting process in MI in 2002. They targeted Barcia,Bonior,and Rivers. They combine Barcia's District with fellow Democrat Dale Kildee- Jim Barcia decided to retire from Congress and run for the State Senate. Bonior's district was combined with fellow Democrat Sander Levin. Bonior decided to run for Governor. Rivers district was combined with John Dingell- Rivers is the only Incumbent US House member that decided to challenge a fellow Incumbent US House Member in the primary.

Assuming Rogers and McCotter is forced to run in a same district. The new US House District will be extremely favorable to Mike Rogers. The Lansing Area in the old MI-8 will go to MI-7(Schauer-D)giving Schauer-D)a safer District.
MI-8 will absorb the old MI-11 (SW Oakland County base. the old MI-11(Wayne County) base will go to the old MI-14(Conyers) and the old MI-15(Dingell).

nkpolitics1279 said...2012 redistricting will effe...

2009-03-08T23:13:00.337-04:00

nkpolitics1279 said...
2012 redistricting will effect US Senate races in certain states.
MI-(if Rogers-R and McCotter-R)is put in the same district- one of them will run for the US Senate in 2012 against Stabenow. . . .

So it is a guarantee that Rogers' and McCotter's districts will be 'merged' 'eliminated' or however you wish to say it? Maybe the legislature will decide to 'fortify' those districts with GOOPer voters, and pull some Dem precincts out to 'fortify' purple districts?

If the districts are combined, what guarantees that Rogers and McCotter will not decide they will run against each other in the 'new' House district? Maybe both will determine that they have a better probability of winning a GOOPer primary for the House seat than going against Stabenow in the general?

2012 redistricting will effect US Senate races in ...

2009-03-08T20:24:47.433-04:00

2012 redistricting will effect US Senate races in certain states.
MI-(if Rogers-R and McCotter-R)is put in the same district- one of them will run for the US Senate in 2012 against Stabenow.
MN-(Bachmann-R) district is likely to get eliminated. forcing her to run against Klobuchar.
MO-(Akin-R)district gets eliminated. forcing him to run against McCaskill-D.
NJ-(Garrett-R)-district gets eliminated forcing him to run against Menendez-D.
OH-(Mean Jean-R) district gets eliminated forcing her to run against Brown.

Marky Mark.Nate has DE ranked number 13. before LA...

2009-03-08T19:11:49.680-04:00

Marky Mark.
Nate has DE ranked number 13. before LA(Vitter-R)-14 and NY(Gillibrand-D)-15. DE is much safer than LA and NY(Gillibrand.
37)ID-(Crapo-R)- Crapo is running unopposed.
36)NY-(Schumer-D)
35)OR-(Wyden-D)
34)UT- (Bennett-R)
33)IN-(Bayh-D)
32)AL-(Shelby-R)
31)MD-(Mikulski-R)
30)SD-(Thune-R)
29)VT-(Leahy-D)
28)HI-(Inouye-D)
27)AK-(Murkowski-D)
26)ND-(Dorgan-D)
25)SC-(DeMint-R)
24)WA-(Murray-D)
23)CA-(Boxer-D)
22)OK-(Coburn-R)
21)WI-(Feingold-D)
20)GA-(Isakson-R)
19)AR-(Lincoln-D)
18)IA-(Grassley-R)
17)AZ-(McCain-R)
16)DE-(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
15)KS-(OPEN-Brownback-R)
14)CT(Dodd-D)
13)NV-(Reid-D)
12)TX-(OPEN-Hutchison-R)
11)CO-(Bennett-D)
10)NY-(Gillibrand-D)
9)IL-(OPEN-Burris-D)
8)LA-Vitter-R)
7)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
6)NC-(Burr-R)
5)KY-(Bunning-R)
4)PA-(OPEN-Specter-R)
3)OH-(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
2)NH-(OPEN-Gregg-R)
1)MO-(OPEN-Bond-R)

> The redistricting,of course,will not affect Sena...

2009-03-08T19:10:26.845-04:00

> The redistricting,of course,will not affect Senate races,only House races.

It will affect State Senate races though, and that's a big deal in the longterm. Creating more locations to attract local talent to your team. Those talented folks that could pick one party or the other, you aren't going to draw them in with lost cause races.

Those are the ones you really want too. Oh sure you might be sitting there as a Democrat with Libermann's antics driving you around the bend. But you can say two positive things about those mid-west Blue Dogs:
1) They are more likely to vote party lines than the Republican alternative they beat out.
2) There is reason to expect they can provide a meaningful and thoughtful fiscal foil to forging policies, helping keep D House members honest and grounded while the GOP is incommunicado and in no shape to do the job.

Thanks for the script, Nick! It won't remove the t...

2009-03-08T19:10:24.006-04:00

Thanks for the script, Nick! It won't remove the troll-feeding posts, but it'll contribute significantly to productive discussion in this site.

@ newviewThe second big deal is the post-census re...

2009-03-08T18:51:40.199-04:00

@ newview

The second big deal is the post-census redistricting, which will be critical for the many obvious political and fiscal reasons.

The redistricting,of course,will not affect Senate races,only House races.

And will not affect any 2010 races as the actual redistricting won't happen until 2011.

@ GrogSince "polically" is not a word, I would lik...

2009-03-08T18:31:52.296-04:00

@ Grog

Since "polically" is not a word, I would like change that to "politcally".

My proofreading sucks.

Yeah,it sure does in this case.Try "politically".

> A great, if scary, article on the economy. This ...

2009-03-08T17:55:15.793-04:00

> A great, if scary, article on the economy. This economic change may drive the new party that rises from the ashes of the repubs

You are suggesting that the party of "Drill baby, drill" would transform into the party of true fiscal restraint, stealing the Green Party's thunder?

NKpolitics,You may well be right, but I think ther...

2009-03-08T17:22:32.769-04:00

NKpolitics,

You may well be right, but I think there is the possibility of a set of circumstances whereby a monkey in a suit might be abvle to give Beau Biden a run for his money in 2010. I am not saying its likely, but I think there are far less likely GOP pickups, so I think that for now Nate might have it right. But that it might drop down the list pretty quickly if the Democrats remain reasonably populsr.

GROG (and indeed anyone else, who has a contribution on this)

I wonder how many people ever change which party they vote for? Obviously some do, but I wonder if more of the swings in political support you get are people dying off vs first time voters? I have no idea, but I wonder if we aren't talking of a complex picture that runs something like 35% for each party died in the wool never gonna change, 10% swing voters, 10% new voters (some persuadable, others following socio economic patterns) 10% occasional voters (the get out the vote slice).

MarkyMark- The problem with DE is that Republicans...

2009-03-08T17:11:38.836-04:00

MarkyMark- The problem with DE is that Republicans don't have a credible statewide candidate other than Mike Castle . The chances of Castle running for the US Senate is less than 50%.

In 2006- The NRSC fielded top tier challengers in Democratic MD,MN,and NJ- those 3 seats were open seat elections. The NRSC basically gave up in FL(Nelson)-when they recruited Katherine Harris. NRSC recruited 2nd or 3rd tier challengers against NE(Nelson-D),MI(Stabenow-D)and WA(Cantwell-D). The NRSC conceded the open seat in VT(held by Independent Senator Jim Jeffords-D)-Bernie Sanders- won the VT Seat by a landslide margin.
In 2008- The NRSC fielded credible challengers in LA(Landrieu-D) and NJ(Lautenberg-D) and conceded Democratic seats in AR(Pryor-D),IA(Harkin-D),MT(Baucus-D),SD(Johnson-D).
Looking at the NRSC recruitments in 2010 in Democratic held seats.
1)AR-(Lincoln-D)- The only credible Republican challenger against Lincoln is Mike Huckabee is more likely to run for President in 2012 rather than the US Senate. Lincoln is safe.
2)CA-(Boxer-D)- The Terminator is less likely to run for the US Senate. The rest of the Republican field in CA (Carly Fiorina,etc)is a joke. Boxer-D is safe.
3)CO-(Bennett-D)- The Republicans are stuck with Tancredo,Beauprez,and Schaffer against appointed Democratic Senator Bennett. Bennett-D is safe.
4)CT-(Dodd-D)- Dodd's job approval and re-elect numbers are below 50% but Republicans have 2nd or 3rd tier challengers like ex US Rep Rob Simmons or Larry Kudlow. Dodd -CT is safe.
5)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)- Conservative Activist Christine O'Donnell is the announced candidate for the Biden seat.
6)HI(Inouye-D)- The only top tier Republican candidate -Governor Linda Lingle is not running. Inouye-D is safe.
7)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)- Burris is facing a tough primary challege against State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias-friend of President Obama,and ex US Commerce Secretary William Daley -brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. The republican nominee- is either US REP Mark Kirk or Peter Roskam. Whoever defeats Burris in the Democratic primary will strongly win in the General Election.
IN(Bayh-D)-Safe.
MD(Mikulski-D)-Safe.
NV-(Reid-D)- the only announced Republican candidate against Reid is Lt Governor Brian Krolicki who is under indictment.
NY-(Schumer-D)-Safe.
NY-(Gillibrand-D)-Potential Republican candidates against Gillibrand is Peter King or George Pataki. Gillibrand is favored to defeat either Pataki or King.
ND-(Dorgan-D)-The only Republican challenger against Dorgan is Governor Hoeven who is unlikely to run.
OR-(Wyden-D)-Safe.
VT-(Leahy-D)-Safe.- Governor Jim Douglas is unlikely to run.
WA-(Murray-D)- Safe.
WI-(Feingold-D)-Safe.

GROG said...markymark- I think you're giving Ru...

2009-03-08T17:06:37.069-04:00

GROG said...
markymark-
I think you're giving Rush too much credit for what happened in 1994.

So why was Lush Rimbaugh made an honorary member of the House freshman class of 1994?

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CE1DC1E39F931A25751C1A962958260

Rimbaugh has been a 'leader' of the extreme far-right for more than 20 years now, and some members of the Democratic Party have finally decided to tell Rimbaugh to go to where he tells all the 'femi-Nazis', et al to go.

And maybe Rimbaugh needs to re-listen to his own words of December 11, 1994, where he told the GOOPers in that freshman class, "Say what you believe, with passion and bravado, and you're going to offend half the people who hear it," but that is the mark of effectiveness. I believe that Press Secretary Gibbs is saying what he believes about Rimbaugh, is saying it with passion and bravado, and he's offending a large portion of the GOOPers.

Since it's only words being brandished by Gibbs (not threats of being sent to Gitmo, like the little shrub White House brandished), Gibbs' words must be VERY effective, if Rimbaugh is crying and crying that 'the wicked Dems are picking on me.' Such a poor baby, a cry-baby at that.

markymark,I'm sure there are many polls on this, b...

2009-03-08T16:02:09.848-04:00

markymark,
I'm sure there are many polls on this, but I think about 35% of voters are hard core Dems and 35% are hard core Reps, and the remaining 30% can be pretty easily persuaded. Obama is very persuasive right now, so I think you're right, we'll find out in 3 1/2 years.

GROG, My guess is that the realignment of US polit...

2009-03-08T15:50:38.902-04:00

GROG,

My guess is that the realignment of US politics will be set at the next Presidential election. If Obama is still popular I reckon you might see a 60-40 type election and a Democrat majority for 20 years. But if Obama sees his popularoty wain and he is another Jimmy Carter say then I think you might see things go the other way.