Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Red States Gaining Ground, but Migration Slowing D...

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2009-10-02T04:32:26.133-04:00

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Salt Lake City is actually quite liberal, both pol...

2009-01-02T23:02:00.000-05:00

Salt Lake City is actually quite liberal, both politically and socially. Has been since the 70s. It's most of the rest of the state that's a problem.

There's actually a very Democratic region stretching from Tooele (just west of Salt Lake), across northern Salt Lake County, and into the area around Park City (just east of Salt Lake). This is mainly thanks to immigration by Hispanics, coastal Californians, and gays from rural Utah.

On top of this, Carbon (unionized miners), Grand (hippies, you heard me right: hippies), and San Juan (Navajo reservation) Counties all lean Democrat. Salt Lake County put Jim Matheson into Congress in 2000, but Carbon, Grand, and San Juan were key in keeping him in office after the Republican gerrymandering in 2001.

They'll try gerrymandering again in 2011, especially with a fourth district to play with, but the sheer size of the Salt Lake metropolitan area plus those pesky counties in eastern Utah make me think they won't be able to get Utah back to an all-red Congressional delegation, and they'll likely set up a second district to turn blue (or at least purple) next decade.

The Republicans have been forced to run increasingly centrist gubernatorial candidates because the state as a whole is blue-shifting. It's not going to switch to blue by 2012 or even 2016, but you're overestimating how deeply red the state is.

Re; On why red states tend ot grow faster than bl...

2008-12-31T22:07:00.000-05:00

Re; On why red states tend ot grow faster than blue states:

Some of this I'd guess has to do with when different regions of the country started growing quickly. The Northeast/Great lakes grew faster economically and population wise through a lot of the 1800's, while the southeast apparently didn't catch up reliably until in the 1900's or so (I am a bit fuzzy on this, but it does fit with most of what I've read.) It's likely that people who would otherwise have moved south for the weather, culture, etc.

(By most descriptions, I haven't heard that southern and western economies/quality of life are significantly higher than Northeast/Midwest, but they do seem to be improving faster, which attracts people who may have preferred those regions to have the opportunity to move there.)

Air conditioning, cars, radios, highway systems, etc. are also more recent, and for western states it may be that the technology to allow people to live there more effectively did not exist until more recently, so now people move much more easily out there and cause very fast population growth.

As a side question, what makes Florida grow so dang quickly? (I've never heard anything good about Florida from individual people, though have heard that some parts of the economy and immigration/retirees add a lot of people to it.)

I'm also one of those people whoprefers Northern weather. In cold I can just put on more clothes, in hot weather, it's either lots of air conditioning or sit there and sweat.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the...

2008-12-30T21:02:00.000-05:00

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The bill is currently endorsed by 1,246 state legislators — 460 sponsors (in 47 states) and an additional 786 legislators who have cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 22 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

Sarah, in your optimism about the GOP's potential ...

2008-12-29T20:36:00.000-05:00

Sarah, in your optimism about the GOP's potential to win over Hispanics, I don't think you're factoring in their cultural memory of what the GOP's activities in Latin America have meant to their people over the past half century.

I recommend you read Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine. These people are smart enough to connect the dots, and I think they're highly unlikely to forgive and forget that stuff anytime soon.

WV: flascin: the thin film that forms on the surface of your chicken soup when you let it cool off too much.

@rgvinetNate won't have to change the name of the ...

2008-12-28T16:19:00.000-05:00

@rgvinet

Nate won't have to change the name of the site because the total number of EVs will remain at 538 barring any new laws. It's 100 Senators (per Constitution) plus 435 Representatives (per statute) plus 3 for DC (per Constitutional amendment).

the Census itself has a fairly high margin of erro...

2008-12-28T07:50:00.000-05:00

the Census itself has a fairly high margin of error depending on things like what sampling procedures are used how effective the Census is at accounting for illegal immigrants.

OUCH!!!! Nate, what a thing for a stats junkie to say!

There are two kinds of error in a statistical survey: sampling error and nonsampling error.

Sampling error is the kind where we can be certain about our uncertainty, where we can say that there's a 95% likelihood that the sample mean is within 3.2% of the population mean. Which is to say, where we have a margin of error.

In the Census, there's no sampling error because it doesn't sample. Our 'sample,' in theory, is everybody.

The Census is vulnerable to nonsampling error, but while we can somewhat measure some kinds of nonsampling error, nonsampling error doesn't have a MOE.

Types of nonsampling error include things like coverage error (drastically oversimplifying, that's the difference between the Census' address list and reality), nonresponse bias (when the households you send questionnaires to, but don't respond, are different from the population as a whole), and the like.

These kinds of error are important, but we don't have the sort of handle on measuring them that the term "margin of error" implies.

e3323:But TEXAS is NOT a 'swing state' - and isn;t...

2008-12-27T23:02:00.000-05:00

e3323:

But TEXAS is NOT a 'swing state' - and isn;t likely to become on in the near future. At least not until more Hispanics and Yankees migrate there.

I can see it turning PURPLE by 2020 - but not BLUE.

But ANY influx there of Democrats is good news - and a drain on its RED base - and any attempts to jerrymander it further.

Also no matter how you slice it this is very bad n...

2008-12-27T17:00:00.000-05:00

Also no matter how you slice it this is very bad news for democrats. Texas is gaining FOUR electoral votes...and Texas is NOT going to be a swing state for another few decades at least. With migration, immigration from mexico, and the growing hispanic population thats already there, Texas could be a swing state...in 2052 maybe.

Sarah:I saw that part. Still, the overall theme of...

2008-12-27T15:48:00.000-05:00

Sarah:

I saw that part. Still, the overall theme of the post is that we should worry about the migration of population from BLUE states to RED.

And MY contention is that, rather than worry, we should be HAPPY - since this will DILUTE the reD state's power as a result).

In short - the preference of older Democrats for warmer climates and of younger Democrats for better job markets is probably the BEST way to slowly overcome the religious ignorance and political backwardness of the deep RED states - while keeping the power base of the BLUE states left behind intact. (I can't think of a single solidly BLUE state that is in danger of flipping RED - while I can name name several RED states that seem to be on the verge of turning BLUE or remaining PURPLE.

That was my point.

Other factors for and against an obama victory is:...

2008-12-27T06:50:00.000-05:00

Other factors for and against an obama victory is:

AGAINST:

- you can only be the first black president once
- he'll no longer be "new and exciting"

FOR:

+ Wright, Ayers, etc. will not be an issue as they are old news.
+ Some people who were not hardcore racists but just " somewhat uncomfortable" with an african american being president might become more confortable with time
+ There are more old white racists than young white racists by far. Many older whites will die and many young whites will become elegible to vote (turn 18) in the next 4 years.
+ The growing hispanic population
+ 4 years of healing plus Hillary Clinton as Sec. of state will but the PUMA effect to rest

As far as the electoral college goes as long as th...

2008-12-27T06:37:00.000-05:00

As far as the electoral college goes as long as the deep blue states only lose 8 votes then obama is almost certain to win reelection as long as he goes a mediocre job or better.

Where did i come up with the number 8? All of the states that Obama won by 9 points or better total to 278.

So lets say by 2012 Obama has ho-hum approval rating...something like 49 percent approve 47 disapprove and 4 percent unsure, and he faces a strong challenge. He'll lose North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia which gives him 278. If obama states (minus said states) lose 8 or less Obama wins.

Then again Obama could have an approval rating of 37 and lose PA, Iowa, New Hampshire, colorado etc.

Alternativly He could have an approval rating of 60+ and win every state he won in 2008 and add Arizona, Missouri, and Montana.

Or if obama does a REALLY good job and has an approval rating of 70 (its 82 right now but it always goes down) then you can even add states like north dakota, south dakota, and Gerogia. He could even win Alaska considering a certain woman with an IQ of 75 isnt on the republican ticket.

So to recap all obama has to do is a better job than Johnson, Carter, Bush (H.W) and of course George W. Bush. If his approval ratings are as high as Clinton's Reagan's, or Kennedy's hes assured re-election. And if his approval ratings are equal to Ford's it will be a close election win Obama getting a narrow victory assumeing the states obama won by 9+ points only lose a total of 8 or less points.

The partisan effect of population shifts are less ...

2008-12-26T23:08:00.000-05:00

The partisan effect of population shifts are less straightforward than they might appear.

When Democrats move to a solidy Democratic state, it obviously helps the Democratic presidential candidate (ignoring the effect on other states). The state is even less likely to vote Republican and has more electoral votes.

However, when Democrats move to a solidly Republican state, it helps the Republican presidential candidate because the tiny shift in the state's tipping point rating does not come close to compensating for the extra electoral votes it receives.

The most significant effect is when Democrats move into a swing state. The state not only gains electoral votes but swings the tipping point considerably. The result is a large swing in the net number of expected electoral votes for the Democratic nominee.

However, turning a red state like Texas into a swing state takes time, even if it does eventually happen. In the short term, Texas getting bluer may provide a temporary bump to Republican presidential candidates.

Even still, it is not so much important whether Texas is getting bluer, but rather whether it is getting bluer relative to the country as a whole. In a situation where each groups votes roughly as it does now, but minorities grow in number, Texas could be blue on paper. But in that scenario, that would imply the country as a whole has a decided structural advantage towards the Democrats. In what scenario is Texas a tipping point state? If the election is close but the minority population has increased, simple arithmetic shows that the GOP is either doing even better among whites or has managed to recover with minority groups. If it's the latter, and I think this is more likely, all the calculations used to imply Texas as a swing state no longer suggest that any more. If Texas is growing more Hispanic but Hispanics are growing more Republican, the state is unlikely to shift blue (at a particularly fast rate at least).

Read the site. It explains it all. There would be ...

2008-12-26T21:47:00.000-05:00

Read the site. It explains it all. There would be several regional meeting houses. I personally don't think we need 6000, but it certainly needs to be at least doubled in size. Or at least expanded to 569 according to the Wyoming Rule. It can't be restricted. If it were allowed to expand from now on, even that would be a vast improvement.

I'd rather proportional representation altogether though.

And Bob X, I still find it annoying. :P

-------

No states are really losing population. They only lose seats because they don't grow as fast as other states.

On Texas ever turning blue.I think it all comes do...

2008-12-26T19:07:00.000-05:00

On Texas ever turning blue.

I think it all comes down to urban versus rural. My obnoxiously abrasive take it that people with less information and less cultural awareness tend to vote Republican and living in the city floods you with information and culture.

An urbanite who has moved to the country is unlikely to switch to voting red - but the more time a rural dweller spends in the city the more likely he or she is to abandon provincial thinking and vote blue.

For example, once you learn that gay people aren't perverts, you don't unlearn it. Once you figure out that Republicans are stacking the deck so that corporations can screw the middle class, you don't forget. etc.

Looks like in an ultra-close 2000/2004 type electi...

2008-12-26T18:55:00.000-05:00

Looks like in an ultra-close 2000/2004 type election, the republicans would benefit slightly in the electoral college

@ Juris - "typos: There are one or two more, but t...

2008-12-26T17:50:00.000-05:00

@ Juris - "typos: There are one or two more, but this one should perhaps be fixed: "blue states and red states as based on the 2000/04 electoral map"

"as based on" should perhaps be "compared to" or "relative to."

While a copy editor might agree that your changes in this case help clarify the author's meaning, you are in no way, shape or form correcting "typos."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typo

You probably aren't aware of this Nate, but AZ, CA...

2008-12-26T17:36:00.000-05:00

You probably aren't aware of this Nate, but AZ, CA, NM, and TX are not the only states gaining big in Mexican immigrants, illegal or otherwise.

PA, WA, NC, MI,MO, and GA all have not insignificant numbers of first and second generation Chicanos and are growing. While this does little to change the political landscape in solid blue states, it will in purple and red states.

judas_priest: The members of congress are there no...

2008-12-26T17:27:00.000-05:00

judas_priest: The members of congress are there not just to "represent" their districts in the sense of reflecting the opinions of the inhabitants, but to use their own judgment and to reach decisions.

Ah, that's one of the great conundrums, no? On the one hand, you have the British MP Edmund Burke who said "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."

On the other hand, if the representative goes against his constituents' opinion too often, they'll vote in someone else who more closely adheres to those opinions. After all, "represent" is a part of the job title.

I political leadership consists not in defying the public will but in using the position to lay out the reasonable alternatives to help create the majority that will support wise decisions. I don't see how we can expect our representatives to make tough but necessary choices unless their constituents are willing to make those same choices; where else will the political support for those choices come from?

In our system, the people are the ones who are ultimately accountable. The sooner we recognize that basic truth, the sooner we can return to serious discussions about what we are willing or not willing to do as a nation instead of just blaming everything on "Washington."

@juvanyaConsider the mechanics of having House wit...

2008-12-26T17:10:00.000-05:00

@juvanya

Consider the mechanics of having House with 6.000 members, and that idea will be seen as Don Quixote chasing the impossible dream

The members of congress are there not just to "represent" their districts in the sense of reflecting the opinions of the inhabitants, but to use their own judgment and to reach decisions.

Having a body of that size makes it virtually impossible for those to happen. Most of the work done in the house is done in the committees and sub-committees which have far fewer members. The House itself is incapable or hammering out fine details of legislation (which is why they have committees in the first place) and the body you envision would preclude anything from getting done all all.

If you think we have achieved perfection you might consider that a good thing, but somehow I don't think that's your point.

Sarah: Why can't NY and MA attract people to live ...

2008-12-26T16:22:00.000-05:00

Sarah: Why can't NY and MA attract people to live there? Why are its residents leaving?

People aren't leaving, at least not enough to create a net loss. New York had a 1.7% population gain between 2000 and 2006. Massachusetts also had a 1.4% gain over the same period.

So it's not about losing population; it's about relative gains versus other states.

And I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with having a stable population. More people means a need to build more roads, schools, sewers and treatment plants, and mass transit (if appropriate). It often results in more congestion and less open space. As long as people are doing OK, I don't see population as indicative of a state's overall health.

Population growth may be greater where the cost of living is cheaper (it's relatively expensive to live in the Northeast), but that doesn't say much about the quality of life in one region as opposed to another.

By the way, the weather does not "suck" here in New York. I love having four real seasons. Reliable sun and warmth is for wimps.