Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: RGA's Ayers Responds to 538 Readers

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-12T04:03:30.744-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

2009-09-06T03:35:31.176-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^

A片下載|成人影片下載|免費A片下載|日本A片|情色A片|免費A片|成人影城|成人電影|線上A片|A...

2009-07-22T03:55:55.711-04:00

Lord Calvert +1 As far as I can tell, the Republi...

2009-07-19T13:37:55.597-04:00

Lord Calvert +1

As far as I can tell, the Republicans are not serious about a comeback. They would have to abandon The Base in order to do that. Instead, they give every appearance of fighting a rearguard action to delay Democratic and Progressive causes as long as possible, and of being quite content to do that as long as their individual jobs and campaign funding are secure.

This rearguard action is the fourth round of a process of dismantling the South's Peculiar Institution, going back to the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

0) The Declaration says "all men". Even though Jefferson clearly didn't mean slaves, women, children, immigrants, or Indians, it has gradually become the modern understanding that "all" means "Yes, even them".

1) The Constitution allows Congress to forbid importing slaves after 1808. (1788)

2) The Civil War and the Constitutional amendments that followed ended legal slavery. (1860s)

3) The "Impeach Earl Warren" Court undid the legalization of Jim Crow segregation under Plessy v Ferguson (Brown v Board of Education, 1954)

4) The Obama administration signals the end of...We don't know what, but the South isn't having any. That's what they mean when they say that Obama means to establish a "tyranny", as in the tyranny of the Feds over the states on Civil Rights and funding of social programs.

There are other issues, such as union-busting, but race has been at the heart of the Republican Party's identity ever since the Southern Strategy was laaunched in reaction to "the Sixies".

I can see no other reason for the ever-shriller screaming from the far Right talking heads, who are, as one might say, screaming all the way to the bank. I can see no other reason for all of the partisan posturing by state and national politicians, such as pretending to turn down Stimulus money.

But consider the Representative from Buncombe County, Felix Walker, in 1820.

"In the Sixteenth Congress, after lengthy debate on the Missouri Compromise, members of the House called for an immediate vote on that important question. Instead, Felix Walker rose to address his colleagues, insisting that his constituents expected him to make a speech "for Buncombe." It was later remarked that Walker's untimely and irrelevant oration was not just for Buncombe—it "was Buncombe." Thus, buncombe, afterwards spelled bunkum and then shortened to bunk, became a term for empty, nonsensical talk." And also created the necessity to "debunk" such nonsense.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buncombe_County,_North_Carolina
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/bunkum

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. (The more it changes, the more it stays the same.)

ZOMG, he's gone French on us! Run!! No, stand and scream!

This article was definitely better than the first ...

2009-07-17T02:46:31.543-04:00

This article was definitely better than the first take. Keep it up 538. There's a reason this is the only commentary I read/listen to.

The much deeper problem of the GOP is that the bas...

2009-07-16T18:41:17.059-04:00

The much deeper problem of the GOP is that the base ideology of De-regulation and CEO's gone wild as a positive has fallen apart.

50 years of "I don't want my taxes to feed lazy poor people" has become "I don't want my taxes to be slurped up by Golden Sacks in untold billions with no accountability whatever" when a single "Bonus" could finance a world of "welfare queens" and have money left over.

The efforts to destroy empathy by sneaky racism still work on a portion of RWA's who are pathologically devoid of it, but it is ceasing to work on the rest of us.

There will be a two party system again as the math of the Constitution will demand it unless that is changed, but expect the new divide to be the Democratic party and the Blue Dog party and the divide slightly left of Obama.

I would really love it if the republican comeback ...

2009-07-16T15:36:38.159-04:00

I would really love it if the republican comeback involves smart competent, and not entirely evil leaders.

Now would be a very good time to post a follow-up ...

2009-07-16T09:58:35.974-04:00

Now would be a very good time to post a follow-up on the governors races in NJ and VA.

As far as I understand, the likelihood that McDonnell will win VA is essentially 0 and dropping quickly. NJ is a solid toss-up.

But immediately following this puff-piece where Ayers talked about "winning both" VA and NJ... it would be a nice time to discuss that possibility in traditional 538 fashion.

For that matter... we have monthly updates on the probabilities that senate seats will flip parties in 2010... but 37 governor seats will be up for a vote then as well. It would be nice to see some work done on probabilities for the governors.

I live in SC, and after Sanfords complete meltdown, I'm starting to think we might actually see a democrat win the governor's mansion in 2010... at least if Sanford stays in for the next year. I imagine some people in AK might be pondering similar thoughts...

I just think there's enough interest in the governor's races out there to break them down as the senate seats are broken down - and there's ~ the same number of races to review.

But at the very least it would be nice to see the state of the race in VA and NJ.

Can't wait for the DGA interview! Thanks Tom! Mig...

2009-07-16T08:13:17.108-04:00

Can't wait for the DGA interview! Thanks Tom!

Might want to void kelly's comment, it's spam with very fishy links involved.

Thanks to Mr. Ayers for agreeing to be so open about these issues. I have to say I'm Pulling against him, and I'm glad he's not in the spotlight as much as the crazies have been... he makes the Republican Party seem all positive and forward-thinking.

I thought Mr. Ayers came across in this interview ...

2009-07-16T05:21:09.159-04:00

I thought Mr. Ayers came across in this interview as smart and clever. I also felt that he did less sloganeering this time, but maybe that's just the mood I'm in. In any case, I think that these kinds of interviews are just the type of added value (besides the core of statistics, charts, and logical analysis) that's most appropriate for this site. I look forward to more in this series.

wv: wingr. No, really!

Thank you for these posts, Tom, and for the respon...

2009-07-16T03:52:29.997-04:00

Thank you for these posts, Tom, and for the responses, Mr. Ayers.

Let's be realistic - who really expects Mr. Ayers to show his hand in its entirety? And who didn't expect him to repeat some of the same talking points (tax and spend, and other 30 year old stereotypes)? It's his job!

That said, there is still some useful information here if you read between the lines.

I agree that Sanford, et al. won't impact Virginia and New Jersey. Who cares, except the atheists and gays wanting to take more shots at religion? It's just too far a reach, especially if family values isn't the core message of Bob McDonnell, etc.

That said, he dodged the question of diversity because there is no reason to underscore the fact that the Republican Party is basically the party of Southern White Men, or quasi-populist-faux-rural White People like Sarah Palin and "coon" haters like Audra Shays and her friends, that senator down in Tennessee whose secretary sent out the spook image of Barack Obama, etc.

All that having been said, it was refreshing to read something from a Republican that wasn't inflammatory by nature, and was actually somewhat intellectual.

The RGA is not the same as the rest of the party apparatus, although it plays a part, and I appreciate the insight given.

It is very interesting that Avery said that the GO...

2009-07-16T02:08:37.589-04:00

It is very interesting that Avery said that the GOP can with the Northeast back by putting in a more CEO-style framework. I say it is interesting because they have spent a great deal of time, effort and money over the last two decades in the Northeast attacking or marginalizing conservative CEOs-turned politicians like Amory Houghton (former CEO of Corning Glass) and Jack Davis (founder of I Squared R Element). They antagonized the Houghton-Republicans so badly that they ended up losing a congressional district that was gerrymandered expressly for him.

Mr. Avery, I have one very simple piece of advice. You want to win the Northeast back for the Republicans? Ditch the southern religious-conservatives. Throw them out of the party and never let them back in. Tell them exactly what Barry Goldwater told them, "You are extremists, and you've hurt the Republican party much more than the Democrats have."

As long as totalitarian Dixiecrat Dominionism remains the driving ideology of the Republican Party, you haven't got a chance in hell of getting the Northeast or the Pacific Coast back...or the country, for that matter.

Oh yes, also, an amusing little tidbit... "Becaus...

2009-07-16T01:13:14.837-04:00

Oh yes, also, an amusing little tidbit...

"Because you have a history of Democratic legislatures and/or governors in the Northeast there are policies of high taxes and high debt that have resulted in astounding job loss and economic decline...

My belief is that a well-run governor’s race isn’t overtly partisan as much as it is about hiring the right CEO. And that’s especially true of the Northeast, where there’s more big business and people are very familiar with the roles of CEOs."

Hrmmm...

WV: guessect. A string of statements, all of which are complete guesses, usually self-contradictory. E.g., "What Nick Ayers is saying is a guessect."

I have to agree—Ayres didn’t reveal any more than ...

2009-07-16T01:07:21.028-04:00

I have to agree—Ayres didn’t reveal any more than he did his first appearance, but he did use the opportunity to do some drum beating for his side. So, not much gained IMO having him here for a second go-round.

On a more uplifting note, I was impressed yesterday by Obama’s first statement in a while to the media regarding the reform of health care. Simple, declarative and forceful—“we have to do this now”. I think this will get through.

All this talk about "branding" and drafting CEOs t...

2009-07-16T00:46:39.949-04:00

All this talk about "branding" and drafting CEOs to run for governorships is, in my opinion, part and parcel of a misguided and mostly Republican view that government is somehow the same as business. It isn't, not should it be, particularly in a world where business is more concerned with maximizing shareholder profits than with actually producing something of value. I find it particularly galling to hear the government-as-business drumbeat at a time when business and its CEOs haven't exactly been doing a sterling job at managing their own business, much less the public's.

帶著簡單的行囊,來花蓮旅遊走走,順便體驗一下各種花蓮民宿帶給你的不同感受,品嚐道地花蓮美食的特別花蓮...

2009-07-16T00:36:19.516-04:00

帶著簡單的行囊,來花蓮旅遊走走,順便體驗一下各種花蓮民宿帶給你的不同感受,品嚐道地花蓮美食的特別花蓮小吃風味,也可以騎著單車來品味花蓮民宿 ,呼吸著新鮮的花蓮空氣,所以來花蓮民宿就帶著輕鬆的心情吧!!花蓮黃頁網路電話簿擁有各種不同風格的花蓮民宿,歡迎您來花蓮旅遊放鬆心情體驗美麗的花蓮民宿!!來花蓮旅遊景點也可以請花蓮計程車包車接送服務喔!!還有免費的花蓮民宿訂房諮詢服務可以查詢喔!!蜂蜜蛋糕
花蓮租車|花蓮電腦

Mr. Ayers, as a New Hampshire Democrat, I cannot t...

2009-07-16T00:33:39.532-04:00

Mr. Ayers, as a New Hampshire Democrat, I cannot tell you how much I loved you answer about re-building the GOP's strength in the Northeast by recruiting CEO-types to run as governors on the GOP ticket. You might recall our most recent example, Craig Benson, the only New Hampshire governor to fail to win a second two-year term in decades who paved the way for Gov. Lynch's (D) multi-term stewardshipof this state. Your answer sounded just like one of his campaign ads! And it was pricisely his CEO experience and attitude that undermined his relationship with the legislature and turned so many in his own party against him.

"I don’t discriminate against southern white guys....

2009-07-16T00:11:46.627-04:00

"I don’t discriminate against southern white guys. "

lolol, clearly. The up-and-coming governors he mentioned: all white men.

Clearly the RGA is continuing to do a great job appealing to its base.

With the crap they're pulling with Sotomayor, I guess I've got race on my mind, and ,amazingly, I find myself surprised that that subtext sits so close to the surface with Republicans.

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/07/buchanan-gop-needs-more-race-baiting-not-less.php

Seriously...wtf?

Ayers said in the interview... I don’t think Sanfo...

2009-07-15T23:44:14.988-04:00

Ayers said in the interview...
I don’t think Sanford’s poor decision will affect one vote in Virginia and New Jersey.

Ayers - I wouldn't be so sure of that. The first time that any of the GOOPers make a 'family values' type comment, at least some people might be reminded of Vitter, or Ensign, or Sanford, or Mark Foley, etc., and remember that all of them were for 'family values', but still fell far short of the ethic they tried to peddle in their campaign.

I'm sure there are quite a few people in New Jersey and Virginia who lived in, or have relatives living in, or formerly lived in, Louisiana, Nevada, South Carolina and/or Florida, the home states of the 'family values' politicians who fell far short of that ethic they tried to peddle.

How many people will it affect? I'm not sure, but I figure that it is some sum greater than zero voters in both states.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

538 READERS (ESP. QUIXOTE): Just to keep you upda...

2009-07-15T22:34:11.987-04:00

538 READERS (ESP. QUIXOTE):

Just to keep you updated, within hours of publishing this post the PR person for Nathan Daschle of the DGA contacted me to request that he be interviewed, too.

I think that as we continue this series, consultants, analysts, operatives and others involved with campaigns and elections will want to--or even feel compelled to--engage the readers of 538.

Thanks for the kind words.

Schaller

So you want to recruit more governor candidates wh...

2009-07-15T22:09:56.958-04:00

So you want to recruit more governor candidates who have experience as a CEO. But the best known CEO-Governor up for reelection, Jon Corzine, is a "complete failure".

Also, of course no one wants to raise taxes when they are a candidate for governor. But that changes when they get in office and realize they need to get money somehow.

Ayers didn't give better answers this time around,...

2009-07-15T21:52:02.139-04:00

Ayers didn't give better answers this time around, just longer ones.

Hey Nick, FYI. If you want to spread the message m...

2009-07-15T21:04:29.951-04:00

Hey Nick, FYI. If you want to spread the message more outside the southern white guy demographic you might rethink falling back on NASCAR analogies. Not every NASCAR fan is a SWG but you do light up the stereotype beacon when you do that. ;)

God bless sarah palin and aliforniafamily.for once...

2009-07-15T20:57:31.729-04:00

God bless sarah palin and aliforniafamily.for once we have some one who is not affront.people like barny fag nazi polusei suck schumer dirty harry tom dashound dianne frankenstine ugly nose waxman and all the other freeks who destroyed california

@Schaller/Ayers: I applaud you both for having ano...

2009-07-15T20:55:54.492-04:00

@Schaller/Ayers: I applaud you both for having another go at it and for providing some worthwhile content this time around.

Would be interesting to ask similar questions of Nathan Daschle or someone else from the DGA and compare the responses.