Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/14

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2009-09-25T07:49:49.458-04:00

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2009-02-09T00:32:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T02:01:00.000-05:00

I heard over the weekend that the Republican senat...

2008-10-15T15:27:00.000-04:00

I heard over the weekend that the Republican senatorial campaign committee is making buys in Maine to support Susan Collins. Any reason to think that seat is in play? You've consistently shown it as Solid Republican.

Regards from MN! I see Mr. Silver has revised his ...

2008-10-15T13:47:00.000-04:00

Regards from MN! I see Mr. Silver has revised his senatorial projections for the Great State of Minnesota! Good Job! js

Hardball- Tweety did a coverage on the US Senate R...

2008-10-14T20:38:00.000-04:00

Hardball- Tweety did a coverage on the US Senate Races- He said during tidal waves Good Sensible Republicans like Jim Talent who lost in 2006 or John Sununu or Gordon Smith of 2008 will end up losing.

Santorum-2008
1)Virginia(OPEN- Warner-D vs Gilmore-R)
2)New Mexico(OPEN-Udall-D vs Pearce-R)
DeWine-2008
3)Colorado-(OPEN-Udall-D vs Schaffer-R)
4)New Hampshire-(Shaheen-D vs Sununu-R)
Chaffee-2008
5)Oregon-(Merkley-D vs Smith-R)
Talent-2008
6)North Carolina-(Hagan-D vs Dole-R)
7)Minnesota-(Franken-D vs Coleman-R)
Burns-2008
8)Alaska-(Begich-D vs Stevens-R)
Allen-2008
9)Georgia-(Martin-D vs Chambliss-R)
10)Kentucky-(Lunsford-D vs McConnell-R)
11)Mississippi-(Musgrove-D vs Wicker-R).

Nate: could you comment on Charles Franklin's new ...

2008-10-14T17:50:00.000-04:00

Nate: could you comment on Charles Franklin's new article on pollster.com on on house effects in tracking polls? I'd be interested in hearing what you think. Also is the supertracker adjusted for house effects? I know the state polls are...

Wonder if Democrats get the 60 seat majority then ...

2008-10-14T16:40:00.000-04:00

Wonder if Democrats get the 60 seat majority then Lieberman goes ahead and comes all the way out of the closet and changes to Republican.

Anyone know what happens to the vacant seats left by Obama and Biden (and possibly the philanderer guy down in FLA)?

If somebody had said a few months ago that our big...

2008-10-14T15:25:00.000-04:00

If somebody had said a few months ago that our biggest worry would be that the R's would figure out they'd lost the Pres race so soon that they could redirect many millions of $ to defend Senate seats in MN, OR, AK, NC, GA, KT, and MS, we wouldn't have been disappointed. But now it's time to respond with $ to those races, which will be crucial to governing./mbw

Georgia voter here who voted for Obama and Martin ...

2008-10-14T15:15:00.000-04:00

Georgia voter here who voted for Obama and Martin for Senator.

Dare I dream the impossible that Georgia could be blue on Nov. 4?

RCP are lying scumbags

2008-10-14T15:04:00.000-04:00

RCP are lying scumbags

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/20...

2008-10-14T15:02:00.001-04:00

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/sarah_palin_not_vindicated_ala.html

Asked by a reporter in Pennsylvania if the charges...

2008-10-14T15:02:00.000-04:00

Asked by a reporter in Pennsylvania if the charges were true, Palin replied: "No, and if you read the report you will see that there was nothing unlawful or unethical about it. You have to read the report."

But the Anchorage Daily News, one of the papers that knows her best, not only begs to differ with the Republican vice presidential nominee, it emphatically opens up a can of whup you-know-what on her:

Sarah Palin's reaction to the Legislature's Troopergate report is an embarrassment to Alaskans and the nation.

She claims the report "vindicates" her. She said that the investigation found "no unlawful or unethical activity on my part."

Her response is either astoundingly ignorant or downright Orwellian.

Page 8, Finding Number One of the report says: "I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act."

In plain English, she did something "unlawful." She broke the state ethics law.

Perhaps Gov. Palin has been too busy to actually read the Troopergate report. Perhaps she is relying on briefings from McCain campaign spinmeisters.

That's the charitable interpretation.

Because if she had actually read it, she couldn't claim "vindication" with a straight face...

Gov. Palin and her husband were obsessed with Wooten the way Capt. Ahab was obsessed with the Great White Whale. No Wooten, no peace.

mule rider wrote:Rest assured, whatever goes right...

2008-10-14T14:46:00.000-04:00

mule rider wrote:
Rest assured, whatever goes right or wrong over the next 4-8 years will be laid solely at the feet of Obama and the Democrats. We are watching.

Great, but just remember that criticising the President "during a time of war" is considered by Republicans to be treason, and that Republicans consider the "War On Terror" to be a "real war" that is only over when the President says it is over.

And also, criticising the President "during a time of war" is also "dishonouring the troops" in some kind of way that only Republicans can understand.

On any conceivable issue where his vote is pivotal...

2008-10-14T14:24:00.000-04:00

On any conceivable issue where his vote is pivotal, Lieberman either has an ideology or he has a price. If he has an ideology, then he'll vote it - it doesn't matter who he's caucusing with (if any). If he has a price, that price goes up if he's bitter for being kicked out - but it falls drastically if he loses all his power. On balance, he is probably cheaper as a free agent, because even with his chairmanship he's already a bitter lame duck, so his spite-price can't go too much higher, and his power price can certainly drop.

Even if the sky falls and Democrats get only 53 seats, even if he's pivotal for 60, I say kick him out.

Also, it would do wonders for the "moral hazard" of anyone tempted to follow in his footsteps.

Obama ads are all over TV here in Georgia all of a...

2008-10-14T14:16:00.000-04:00

Obama ads are all over TV here in Georgia all of a sudden. There's going to be a huge African-American turnout and now many more white voters are going back to their Democratic roots.

And Max Cleland has an excellent TV ad for Jim Martin. Hold on to your hat!

test post

2008-10-14T14:13:00.000-04:00

test post

Ted Stevens turns 85 next month, not 75

2008-10-14T14:12:00.000-04:00

Ted Stevens turns 85 next month, not 75

Upcoming LA Times/Bloomberg Poll Good News for Oba...

2008-10-14T14:03:00.000-04:00

Upcoming LA Times/Bloomberg Poll Good News for Obama

Release @ 5 ET

RCP is still trying to figure out how to deal with...

2008-10-14T14:02:00.000-04:00

RCP is still trying to figure out how to deal with Gallup

today maybe a better idea, they are listing BOTH of the LV results separately rather than a combined averaging

Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/11 - 10/13 2140 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/11 - 10/13 2289 LV 53 43 Obama +

I can but that...

BUT they managed to find room in their poll of polls for the new IDB-TIPP tracker while ignoring R2000

and they listed the DCorps results from the 12th - but dropped it down below the older FAUX polls far enough down the list that the #'s drop off from the polls in the 'averaging sample' [shaded in gray]

- the top 12 polls are currently included with DCorps at #13...

hhhmmm

Any idea why they don't poll the Texas race more? ...

2008-10-14T14:01:00.000-04:00

Any idea why they don't poll the Texas race more? I know it's another longshot for the Dems, but nobody expected McConnell to be this in danger at this point either. I'd love to see another poll out of Texas just for the hell of it.

new thread

2008-10-14T14:00:00.000-04:00

new thread

link to suffolkhttp://suffolk.edu/31363.html

2008-10-14T13:57:00.001-04:00

link to suffolk

http://suffolk.edu/31363.html

link to suffolkhttp://suffolk.edu/31363.html

2008-10-14T13:57:00.000-04:00

link to suffolk

http://suffolk.edu/31363.html

Kennyb,If somebody fills out a registration as Daf...

2008-10-14T13:53:00.000-04:00

Kennyb,

If somebody fills out a registration as Daffy Duck you are required by law to submit it, you can't arbitrarily throw it away. Many of the registrations Republicans are making a stinl about were flagged by those that submitted them. Also, if you are registring people and you ask them if they are registered and they say no and you register then that's not their fault. The one guy kept regisrering b/c he was going to events where the ywere giving out free stuff or food at the registration event. The false voter regisrations are much ado about nothing b/c these false people don't show up on election day. Voter suppression which the Republcons are masters at, by caging or purpose misallocation of machines not based on vpter population is real. False registrations is a distraction for the "Republican true believers" to yell about.