Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Morning Musings

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2009-03-12T02:11:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:10:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-19T09:16:00.000-05:00

Don't even mention Bush anymore. The White House d...

2008-09-17T23:13:00.000-04:00

Don't even mention Bush anymore. The White House doesn't even find it worthwhile to make it seem like he's really the one in charge anymore. The pretending was obviously over during the Olympics and the Russia/Georgia conflict.

Darien -Cool!! We're in Marysville, so dinner/beer...

2008-09-17T18:38:00.000-04:00

Darien -

Cool!! We're in Marysville, so dinner/beer on me next time you're up.

Ahem. Read my lipstsick! Obama will win: New Hamp...

2008-09-17T18:32:00.000-04:00

Ahem. Read my lipstsick!

Obama will win:

New Hampshire
Virginia
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana

Game over.

I agree with someone who posted last night "wtf Ohio?" Screwed backward and forward by Republicans, they offer up their vote for more. Unbelievable. Those people are hurting big time from job losses. D'oh. How did Bush put it, fool me once? Sorry, you treat me the way you have for the past eight years, and you're out.

McCain can try to pretend he's not Bush and not a Republican, but it's not going to fly. Repubs need to own up to the utter failure of the past 8 years, and especially the first 6 of those years, and not just try to put a pretty wrapper on the same old crap. It stinks. McCain is worse than a flip flopper, he's two-faced. "I was for deregulation before I was against it" On Gramm: "pay no attention to the fact that he wrote my economic policy, you neurotic whiners. The fundamentals of our economy are still strong."

Yup yup.

More lipstick: Ohio's record for picking the win ends this year.

McCain was counting on Palin and other undignified distractions to carry him through til November, but we have the proverbial October surprise in September this year. Finally, it's about issues.

Outside of some really brilliant 527 swiftboating from the McCain camp, this election will continue to be about the economy. What we're seeing this week in the market is going to continue.

By the way, anyone seen Bush lately? Is he such a lame duck as to be irrelevant when it comes to the biggest market disaster most Americans have ever seen in their lives?

GALLUP tracker seems likely to spread further towa...

2008-09-17T18:13:00.000-04:00

GALLUP tracker seems likely to spread further toward a larger Obama lead.

Obama trend has been 45-45-45-46-47-__ ? [my estimate = 48 minimum tomorrow]

McCain 5 day trend is 47-47-47-47-45-__ ? [my estimate = 44 maximum tomorrow]

so that means Obama probably polled at least a 48 [maybe even a 49 today [for the single day] to pull his 3 day average up +1 again, and tomorrow another 45 day drops out.

bad news for the GOPers as Mccain appears to have polled a paltry 43-44 today & he will drop another 47 day from the 3 day average tomorrow. Odds are he will poll another 43-44 and drop to a 44 average on Thursday.

Gallup prediction: 9/18 = O48 - M44

geez that will look very much in line with R2000 & Hotline.

wonder if RR will continue to try to maintain their McCain bubble is still real by additional massaging of the data...

Scottie R. is nothing if not persistent in pushing his agenda driven narrative however

SuperstarJ2ThaR said... OK, leave the partisan ana...

2008-09-17T17:55:00.001-04:00

SuperstarJ2ThaR said...
OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyard taunting out of this. How, realistically, do you feel about your candidate of choice in regards to how the EV map stacks up for him and how he has formed his narrative? I'm curious to read the range of replies.

-------------

Good question.

Relative to Gore and Kerry I am much more confident in Obama. He is slow to react sometimes, but when he does it is very effective. I think this fits with his more tactical style. He needs time to plan his next move, but that little bit of time pays off.

Kerry and Gore often reacted both slowly and poorly.

Given that both Kerry and Gore nearly won, I am pretty optimistic about Obama's chances.

PEOPLE, remember the correct #'s to use on this s...

2008-09-17T17:55:00.000-04:00

PEOPLE, remember the correct #'s to use on this site [when available] are the multi-party splits [not the 2 party summary].

In this cycle that just so happens to favor Obama more than McCain [thanks Barr & Nader]...

For instance, look at the handful of CNN/Time polls out today. FL goes from a tie to Obama +4 [just above the MOE]. I live in FL & that seems reasonable that Barr & Nader might cost McCain this state in a close election:

CNN / TIME / ORC
9/14-16/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida (907 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 48 [even]
Obama 48, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 1 [Obama +4] <<<<<

Indiana (890 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 51, Obama 45 [M +6]
McCain 48, Obama 43, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 1 [M +5]

North Carolina (910 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 47 [M +1]
MCain 46, Obama 45, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 1 [M +1]

Ohio (913 RV, 3%)
Obama 49, McCain 47 [O +2]
(9/2: Obama 47, McCain 45)
Obama 46, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 0 [O +2]
(9/2: Obama 45, McCain 44, Nader 5, Barr 2, McKinney 1)

Wisconsin (950 RV, 3%)
Obama 50, McCain 47 [O +3]
Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 0 [O +4]

also the spread in WI goes to Obama +4. Those are the #'s that Nate will use.

IF Rasmussen & Gallup & others would poll for all parties, the national trackers would also show a larger Obama lead...

hhmmm - wonder why Scottie R. suppresses the 3rd party results to come through in his 'model' ???

"shadowguidex,"Having the largest University in th...

2008-09-17T17:54:00.000-04:00

"shadowguidex,
"Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Madison 50,000 students) helps to get out those student volunteers also."

Get your facts right:"

Madison shares classes and is intertwined with another local university in Madison, so I lump the numbers together since thats the de facto situation.

University of Minnesota is bigger. They have a Tw...

2008-09-17T17:52:00.001-04:00

University of Minnesota is bigger. They have a Twin Cities campus, with 50,000, and an Agricultural campus, which is also in the Twin Cities. For some reason, they get counted separately.

Dude my wife's from Bellingham. Lot's of family! :...

2008-09-17T17:52:00.000-04:00

Dude my wife's from Bellingham. Lot's of family! :)

Thanks Darien! Same here should you find yourself ...

2008-09-17T17:51:00.000-04:00

Thanks Darien! Same here should you find yourself in Seattle.

"OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyar...

2008-09-17T17:49:00.000-04:00

"OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyard taunting out of this. How, realistically, do you feel about your candidate of choice in regards to how the EV map stacks up for him and how he has formed his narrative? I'm curious to read the range of replies."

Historically, most elections in the last century have been landslides electorally. The last two cycles, and the 1960 and 1916 elections are not the norm. So, since all election polling for the entire century tend to make all elections look close, I ask myself one question. Which candidate is more likely to have a landslide victory? Theres your eventual winner after all the smoke has cleared.

I have said this before and I will say it again, i...

2008-09-17T17:47:00.002-04:00

I have said this before and I will say it again, it is my firm belief that young people will turn out to vote. I think they are the elephant in the room in this election. could be an extra 3-4% to Obama in all these polls (at least in certain areas, I am assuming its going to be a localised trend rather than nationwide).

A lot of elections are won by planning for what hasn't happened before.

shadowguidex,"Having the largest University in the...

2008-09-17T17:47:00.001-04:00

shadowguidex,
"Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Madison 50,000 students) helps to get out those student volunteers also."

Get your facts right:

Ranking University Location Enrollment
1 The Ohio State University (Columbus campus) Columbus, Ohio 52,586 [1]
2 University of Florida Gainesville, Florida 51,725 [2]
3 Arizona State University (Tempe campus) Tempe, Arizona 51,481 [1]
4 University of Minnesota (Twin Cities campus) Minneapolis/Saint Paul, Minnesota 50,883[3]
5 The University of Texas at Austin a[›] Austin, Texas 50,170[4]
6 University of Central Florida a[›] Orlando, Florida 48,699[5]
7 Texas A&M University a[›] College Station, Texas 46,542[6]
8 Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan 46,045[7]
9 The Pennsylvania State University (University Park campus) University Park, Pennsylvania 43,252[8]
10 University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison, Wisconsin 42,041[9]

Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Ma...

2008-09-17T17:47:00.000-04:00

Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Madison 50,000 students)...
The 66,000 Sun Devils of Arizona State say hi.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/2008/09/03/20080903b1talker0903.html

Welcome back VC

2008-09-17T17:46:00.001-04:00

Welcome back VC

VirginiaConservative (The Real One) said... Christ...

2008-09-17T17:46:00.000-04:00

VirginiaConservative (The Real One) said...
Christopher Newport University is an excellent public University. I don't know about their polling, but they are a legit school (about on the level of James Madison University). It's not a degree mill.

-----------------

Thanks, VC and welcome back.

Weird number compared to everybody else and then from an unknown pollster makes you wonder.

OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyard...

2008-09-17T17:45:00.005-04:00

OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyard taunting out of this. How, realistically, do you feel about your candidate of choice in regards to how the EV map stacks up for him and how he has formed his narrative? I'm curious to read the range of replies.

IF Nate or Sean do not start a new thread soon, th...

2008-09-17T17:45:00.004-04:00

IF Nate or Sean do not start a new thread soon, this site may get it's first 1000+ Post.

Almost to 900 now...

a busy, busy day.

but a GREAT day to be on Team Obama !!!

McCain has clearly regressed to his national high mean & appears headed back to his median #'s in the lower 40's [42/44]

meanwhile Obama is trending UP & appears to be back at his median in the mid/upper 40's but maybe headed closer to 49/50% nationally.

Another good day indeed !!!

Well Bill P.Us Americans are always at our best in...

2008-09-17T17:45:00.003-04:00

Well Bill P.

Us Americans are always at our best in times of crisis.

If you ever make it to Las Vegas I would be honored to buy you dinner. :)

VC! We missed you, buddy!

2008-09-17T17:45:00.002-04:00

VC! We missed you, buddy!

new post with all the polls up!heading home from w...

2008-09-17T17:45:00.001-04:00

new post with all the polls up!

heading home from work now, though...

I loved reading the Liberals on here cry for joy w...

2008-09-17T17:45:00.000-04:00

I loved reading the Liberals on here cry for joy when Obama took the lead in today's gallup poll. Whoopdy freaking do!!!!!!!

MCCAIN PALIN 2008
---Because the electoral map is the only thing that matters!