Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/25

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2009-10-08T04:58:14.070-04:00

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2009-09-22T02:34:07.765-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:23:00.000-04:00

Understanding Colorado:Denver County - Denver is a...

2008-08-26T11:48:00.000-04:00

Understanding Colorado:

Denver County - Denver is a vibrant city with a growing population within the city limits. The core is being re-populated by young professionals, gays, and Hispanics. The City does not look like many other major cities in the USA. There's Jimmy Carter's famous quote of asking, "where's the ghetto?" And being surprised to learn there isn’t any ghetto in Denver. The African-American community is concentrated in NE Denver county and NW Arapahoe (Aurora), but it is probably as middle class and integrated as any city in America. The key ground game here is registering and GOTV on Denver Hispanics. I do not sense that this community is particularly inspired by Obama.

Jefferson County - This county is the western side of Metro Denver. It used to be solid GOP (its growth was driven by white flight from Denver busing) but it has gentrified and become increasingly Hispanic. The Uber-Affluent mountain communities of Genesee, Evergreen and Conifer are populated by a large wave of Californian refugees from high taxes, congestion and crappy schools. Colorado is Eastern California! Jefferson County is now complex. McCain must carry Jeffco by 7,000+ votes. He needs a massive turnout in the mountains and in the affluent Columbine suburban area and Western Arvada. The key vote here are Indy women soccer moms.

Arapahoe County - This was the original south metro county (until expansion headed further south into Douglas). The County has uber rich areas and heavy minority populations in Northern and Eastern Aurora. It still is a Republican stronghold but like Jeffco that is slipping. western Arapahoe (Englewood and Sheridan) is becoming more Hispanic. Key here is minority turnout.

Douglas - This is now the bastion of the GOP. Among the fastest growing counties in America it is white, educated, wealthy and GOP red. Douglas is from central casting as affluent suburbia. The GOP must turn out its people in droves.

Boulder (minus Broomfield) - Boulder County split after the 2000 elections letting its SE section form a new county. This rid the City of Boulder Leftists of those troublesome Broomfield Republicans. Known as the People's Republic Boulder joins Denver and Pueblo in forming the core of the Democrats strength. The key to Boulder is the large number of indies that vote Democrat. Many are probably Hillary people. The GOP needs to drive turnout in Superior, Lafayette, Louisville and Longmont. The County is extremely Green.

Adams - This is the old working class county that comprises the old northern edge of Metro Denver. It is very Hispanic. The Libertarian Party was formed here in 1972 in Westminster. The GOP need voters in Northern Westminster and Thornton. New growth areas of drive to qualify Commerce City and Brighton have been hard hit by the housing bust.

Pueblo - Many people are familiar with the Old Mexican peoples of southern Colorado and New Mexico. These families have been in the area for centuries and many of their elite trace back to families thought fought against fascist Mexico under Santa Ana with the USA in the War of 1848. The Salazars brothers (US Senate and 3CD) are such people. There is a tensions between this community and the new Mexican immigrants. Pueblo is also an old steel town and has unionization and issues more like Ohio than perhaps anywhere in the West. The key population for the GOP is retired military (the 4th Mech Division is located here and El Paso). Hispanic voter registration and turnout is low.

El Paso - This is Colorado Springs and its metro area communities. This is the home of Focus on the Family, the US Air Force Academy and NORAD. It is military, Christian Right and very Republican. The Core of Colorado Springs is becoming more Democratic as Hispanic population grows. The key for the Ds is registration and turnout of a population that is rather transient. This county could be in Texas.

Mesa - The largest population county of Western Colorado. Western Colorado is vastly different from the Spring-Denver-Ft Collins Front Range Metropolis. It is all about tourism, ag and energy ... and water. This is the home to 1 trillion barrels of shale oil (more reserves than Saudi Arabia). Pelosi is hated here ... I mean hated. The right hates her for obvious reasons, the Left dislikes her because she's apparently - judging by her personal investing see CLNE - all for natural gas onshore (meaning drilling the crap out of Colorado) but God forbid we talk NorCal offshore. McCain almost committed suicide by talking about renegotiating the Colorado River water compact. As an Arizonan this is war (Colorado+Wyoming+Utah) vs. (Cali+Arizona+Nevada). CA+AZ+NV steal lots of water from the up river states. Its ugly. Mesa also has a concentration of Mormons.

Weld - "Denver" is the core old city of what is now a massive Metroplex stretching along the Front range of Colorado. Its a geographic phenomenon more like what you see along a coastline in say SoCal or Florida. The Affluent live in or close to the Mountains ... the less affluent live out east (think SoCal Carlsbad vs San Bernardino). Weld used to be a collection of farm towns associated with the cattle and meat packing town of Greeley. Now its part of Greater Denver as Colorado's old Japanese onion farmers sell their water rights and turn their lands into low density high-end housing. Weld is filled with affluent swing voters. Colorado elections are now fought here and throughout the suburban 4CD. Weld elects Rep Musgrave - a Far-Right congresswomen.

Larimer - Like Weld Larimer used to be farms plus two towns - Ft Collins and Loveland. Often cited as among the nicest places in the nation to raise a family, Larimer is filled with non-Colorado born young families who moved here to make sure Colorado doesn't become like where ever they came from. Highly affluent, educated and more and more liberal as the old ag college Colorado A&M became Colorado State University. Ft Collins is starting to vibe a little like Boulder. The Republicans must win Larimar big which means soccer moms.

The Eastern Plain Counties - 15 years ago the Democrat Party in Eastern Colorado was nearly extinct. There were Lutheran Republicans, Baptist Christian Right-Wingers, Libertarians and the extreme Right Posse Comitatus ready to fight Gog and the forces of the UN. These people are building bunkers and hiding weapons caches preparing for civil war. These folks also show up as the old Sage Brush Rebellion people years back. Now they are ground zero for Alternative Energy in T Boone's high wind zone and are making money finally from wheat. Times haven't been this good in a lifetime. They used to nearly violently hate Washington DC now the merely despise it. The game here is complex and the population dispersed. Its a hard area to run a campaign in. The Ds will register Hispanics, the GOP will hope that Barr and Keyes don't catch fire. I expect Barr and Keyes to take 6% out of McCain in the 4th.

Mountain Counties - The old mountain towns are now International Chic and uber affluent ... Vail, Aspen, Steamboat, Durango, Telluride, Montrose, Crested Butte, Gunnison, Ouray ... Western Colorado is the most beautiful place in the county that know one knows about. America's uber rich have discovered it and they're buying and building. These uber rich are very often Cali Leftists ... Aspen now rivals Boulder as a People's Republic. These mountain towns are also filled with the Hispanic servants of these Uber Rich liberals, many are illegals so they can't be registered and motivated to vote as easily. The Mountains are also home to lots of old hippies and libertarian recluses. The tricky item here is that a very large number of these homes are second and thirds. Figuring out who is registered in Colorado and who is domiciled somewhere else (and getting them to vote in Colorado) is probably only touchable by a campaign with extra ground capacity - Obama.

Bottomline – Colorado’s is Obama’s to lose. He should win by 1% and might get north of that with ground game. The GOP needs to pound on Energy and Obama’s ties to Chicago corruption, Coloradans hate bad government. Colorado also still hates DC and the East Coast and Cali establishment which they see as exploiters of the Mountain West and corrupt. Immigration is there for the taking but McCain is locked. Romney helps here. An Anti-Washington VP would probably swing Colorado. Portman may help in Ohio but he isn’t it in Colorado. Ritter won the Governorship as a pro-business, pro-life, devout Catholic he’s governed as a union tool and tax hiker. 2006 may have been the top of the Democrats surge here, the tools for their undoing are building.

With Biden's infamous remark about Indian-American...

2008-08-25T21:41:00.000-04:00

With Biden's infamous remark about Indian-Americans in 7-Elevens making the rounds on radio and YouTube, I expect that at the RNC, Bobby Jindal will make a joke about it. (Maybe he'll demonstrate his exorcism techniques too.)

If Obama and Biden make many more verbal gaffes like they did in Springfield they'll lose their standing to highlight McCain's senior moments.

With Michelle and Pelosi speaking tonight, I expect one or both daily tracking polls to move in McCain's favor by a point or two in the morning.

And with that last comment I kind of got off track...

2008-08-25T19:04:00.000-04:00

And with that last comment I kind of got off track: those maps are nifty, but all they do is let us know that rural areas are more republican than urban areas.

The original point I was trying to make is that a Colorado, or Oregon republican voter, is quite a different thing from an Ohio, or Missouri, republican voter. Or so I would think.

filistro said... Which known Democrat do you trust...

2008-08-25T19:03:00.000-04:00

filistro said...
Which known Democrat do you trust more than a generic Republican?

That's a trick question, right?

Yes. Short of wishing Duncan Hunter into office and that all democrats turned into guys like Joe Lieberman and John McCain, who's your VP pick that's better than Palin?

Pluckon, James: It can get into some fairly thorny...

2008-08-25T18:48:00.000-04:00

Pluckon, James:

It can get into some fairly thorny territory trying to figure out comparisons between states---I don't know, for example, if I would say Salem is more conservative than Tacoma, or if Bellingham or Olympia correspond to Ashland or Corvallis. And there is always big variations within communities---Beaverton (which doesn't have the LDS temple, that is nearby Lake Oswego) has a lot of high income people, but they are also tech people, who tend to be more open minded.

But, I think in general the comparison holds:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&year=2004&fips=8

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&year=2004&fips=41

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&off=0&elect=0&fips=53&f=0

That is Colorado, Oregon and Washington...

Which known Democrat do you trust more than a gene...

2008-08-25T18:31:00.000-04:00

Which known Democrat do you trust more than a generic Republican?

That's a trick question, right?

Well, let me correct that. Some of the Portland su...

2008-08-25T18:18:00.001-04:00

Well, let me correct that. Some of the Portland suburbs, i.e., Beaverton, where there's a Mormon temple, are red.

And bryen193, he's not going to pick Jindahl. For starters, he's even blacker and more exotic than Obama. Plus he's been involved in an exorcism. This doubtlessly makes him popular in the voodoo parlors of New Orleans, and in Louisiana in general, but I don't think it would play in America.

What's Olympia Snowe going to do? Outflank Pakist...

2008-08-25T18:18:00.000-04:00

What's Olympia Snowe going to do? Outflank Pakistan to the center with tactics of Senatorial protocol?

In my opinion, nominating any Republican man for Vp is an invitation for Obama to be in the White house, with no executive experience, no foreign policy experience and only his skill at reading people's intentions and acumen at choosing associates to guide him. I don't trust him to pick advisors, read allies or interpret enemies' intentions. He has a terrible record so far.

Presidents need the ability to run an institution and apply expert adice, or else have the knowledge themselves. That's what executives do. McCain has that experience, and Palin can learn on the job for a while at least under McCain. She knows how to run a state with all that entails.

Which known Democrat do you trust more than a generic Republican? So far as independents and undecideds are concerned, is it worse to have the green politician at the top of the ticket or at the bottom?

James, with Oregon the western slope is generally ...

2008-08-25T18:14:00.000-04:00

James, with Oregon the western slope is generally more liberal until you get south of Eugene. Other than the town of Ashland, it's pretty red all the way to the coast below Eugene. Three-quarters of OR's population is in metro Portland, Salem, or Eugene.

Of them, only Eugene's twin, Springfield (the home of Homer Simpson) is red.

If McCain's core argument is that Obama is too you...

2008-08-25T18:11:00.000-04:00

If McCain's core argument is that Obama is too young, inexperienced, and risky to be president, a choice of Jindal or Palin, two people younger, less experienced, and riskier than Obama wouldn't make much sense.

Let's see. China is rising, Russia is going all ex...

2008-08-25T17:45:00.000-04:00

Let's see. China is rising, Russia is going all expansionist, Pakistan is sliding toward utter chaos, Sistani is ailing and the mid-east will explode when he dies, Iran still insists on those pesky nukes....

And you all want SARAH PALIN to be one aging 72-year-old heartbeat away from the presidency?

Are you guys for real?

On the bright side, she could send the military into China and put an end to all those forced abortions. So yeah... great idea, kids.

Pluckon,I'm also a Washingtonian and I agree to a ...

2008-08-25T17:37:00.000-04:00

Pluckon,
I'm also a Washingtonian and I agree to a certain extent. While most areas outside King County used to be red, that has changed recently. Both houses of the state legislature (as you probably know) has supermajorites of Democrats. Oregon is different in that its Western side seems less liberal.

Biden is a windbag. This wouldn't hurt him much i...

2008-08-25T17:33:00.000-04:00

Biden is a windbag. This wouldn't hurt him much in an out-windbagging contest with Romney, or against a man with similar tendancies but the dynamics of debating a woman are different. A draw for Palin would be a win, to the extent a confrontation on a level other than policy played out.

Glenn, you´ve an Obama supporters fan club.Congrat...

2008-08-25T17:25:00.000-04:00

Glenn, you´ve an Obama supporters fan club.
Congratulations.

is the convention bounce likly to be greater in CO...

2008-08-25T17:17:00.000-04:00

is the convention bounce likly to be greater in CO? (and MN next week) CO is looking like an important state this year.

I think people are worrying about a lack of VP bou...

2008-08-25T17:16:00.001-04:00

I think people are worrying about a lack of VP bounce a bit too much at the moment. I can't really explain it, maybe its more a reflection of the Rezko thing worrying Clintonites too much? Otr maybe its still a reflection of the reverse bump from Obama's holiday? Still I would suggest it seems to me that at a potential lull in his campaign, Obama still holds a narrow lead, and that augurs well for the Democrats leading into the convention.

I wonder if Bill's ego will want ot make sure he can't be blamed for an Obama defeat, and hence he will come out on Wednesday with a full throated support of the Obama-Biden ticket. I also wonder if from a Bill Clinton p-o-v the Biden pick reassures him that the Democratic Party isn't moving away from him soooo quickly as it looked earlier in this election year.

Palin said that she doesn´t interesting in the job...

2008-08-25T17:16:00.000-04:00

Palin said that she doesn´t interesting in the job.

Has anyone ever heard Governor Palin speak? I have...

2008-08-25T17:13:00.001-04:00

Has anyone ever heard Governor Palin speak? I haven't. I'm not ruling her out if a fellow Right-Winger can make the case she's up to going toe to toe with Biden.

Glenn,Just wanted to let you know you are by far t...

2008-08-25T17:13:00.000-04:00

Glenn,

Just wanted to let you know you are by far the most intellectual, mature, reasoned Republican poster here. It's much appreciated. Many of the regulars could learn a lot from you.

McCain has a VP problem: everyone seems either too...

2008-08-25T17:08:00.000-04:00

McCain has a VP problem: everyone seems either too lightweight and vulnerable to attack or has too much baggage and is vulnerable to attack.

McCain is not trusted by the right and will loose his base if he doesn't pick someone conservative.

However, factors such as party affiliation, incubent party fatigue, war fatigue, and a stalled economy point to a massive democratic win unless he can lure disaffected democrats and and independents. Few talking points favor Republicans, perhaps only immigration, which McCain won't use, and energy.

A diverse series of Bush states, Co, Nv, Nm, Va, Ga, Oh, and Fl could go blue this year. A candidate who merely "delivers" a state, asuming this would happen for Pawlenty, Portman, or Romney, won't win the election for McCain if national polls are strongly in Obama's favor.

The solution: Sarah Palin. No baggage, trusted by the right, appeals to all women, Executive experience, energy sector experience, resistant to attack because of her gender.

Most Americans with enough political savvy to know anything about anyone, even bigshots like Mitt Romney, are already committed partisan voters. Whoever is chosen will be new to everybody who counts. By being a woman, she will get unprecedented free media coverage. Snowe is too liberal.

Sarah Palin is McCain's best choice for 2008 and, win or lose, this run would expose her nationally for 2012.

Well, Bush won Texas for 22 points, and McCain is ...

2008-08-25T16:59:00.000-04:00

Well, Bush won Texas for 22 points, and McCain is leaning only by nine.