Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem?

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2009-02-08T21:26:00.000-05:00

Obama's bounce has proven to be both anemic and ep...

2008-06-20T17:48:00.000-04:00

Obama's bounce has proven to be both anemic and ephemeral. It has been magnified in some of these polls because of misampling and over identification of Democrats.

Issues matter and they are trending away from Obama. He refuses to concede the need for more domestic energy exploration thereby getting cross wise with the a large majority of voters on issue number one; his unscripted moment in hailing the trial of the 1996 WTC bombing culprits as the way to fight terroism shows him to be dangerously ill-informed; the success in Iraq coupled with our turning back of the Taliban in Afghanistan is going to make the people wonder if his strategy of heedless withdrawal regardless of the facts is the right one; and his withdrawal from the campaign finance system has generated bad press from every quarter and sown the seeds of doubt about how "new" his politics are.

About the only thing good to happen for him this week was his wife's appearance on the View and even that re-hashed a lot of bad press for her while the media focussed on her "make over".

Expect him to fall in the polls through the middle of next week, barring any interruption in the news cycle. McCain could even take the lead nationally in a weeks' time, if the drilling and financing stories continue to spin negative for Obama.

The drilling issue has the potential to ressurect the Republican Party in general and we will see how truly nimble Obama is in reacting to it.

My guess is that he is too beholden to the left wing (being a leftist himself) to move on the issue and will believe that his $500 million campaign war chest will guarantee him election.

It might if we were electing an underwear model, but not the President of the United States!

I think "Appalachian" is the wrong term.Demographi...

2008-06-20T15:18:00.000-04:00

I think "Appalachian" is the wrong term.

Demographically, what we are talking about is the statistically significant group of people that respond to the Census Ancestry question "American or United States".

Second, when we talk about a demographic group we need to be careful to understand that we are not talking about individuals we are talking about the probabilities of an aggregated unit.

Consider drawing samples from a tub of marbles some percent p of which are red. As the percent p rising our sample scoop will "on average" have more red marbles. We are saying nothing about an individual marble.

Is a team with a batting average of .300, definitely going to get a hit on every at bat? No, but its more likely to get a hit than a team whose batting average is .180? Is every one on the .180 team a crappy hitter. Not necessarily?

Finally, we are not talk about "causation". Responding to the Ancestry question with "American" rather than "Polish" or "Italian" or "English", doesn't "cause" you to vote Republican. It's just "correlated", so that as a matter of prediction or betting the odds.

The historical reasons that consider and hypothesis about ethnicity and politics are complex interesting and messy. Politics is local but so it turns out is ethnicity/ancestry in the US. We remain remarkably "unmelted", unhomoginized, and dynamically changing.

Use the American Fact Finder, Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF3)
TM-PCT047. Percent of Persons of United States or American Ancestry: 2000

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ThematicMapFramesetServlet?_bm=y&-geo_id=01000US&-tm_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U_M00137&-ds_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U&-_lang=en&-format=&-CONTEXT=tm

VT is a special case, because Marxists/secular Left eschew "ethnicity" and there is something similar going on to what happens in ME. ME is special case because there is a distinguishing between Fr. "Canadians" and "American" so you get a weird response.

If you run the map by 3-digit zip you can get a better sense.

Steve,Just a bit of CITOKATE -- Carter and Volokhe...

2008-06-20T13:43:00.000-04:00

Steve,

Just a bit of CITOKATE -- Carter and Volokher are credited for ending stagflation, and Carter's Federal Reserve Chairman (Volokher) is regarded as the best Fed Chairman in history. He did alright, with the economy.

;-)

Folks, I live in liberal Appalachia, in a Machine State. WV is what we call a corrupt state. It'll vote however the coal companies/unions want it to vote.

Now, as to why Appalachia didn't like Obama, I can speak to a few things.

1. Innate Hostility to Foreigners
2. Liking people to run more than once to get to know 'em (maybe that's just PA).
3. Liking fighter-type politicians
4. Obama sounded like all the other politicians who show up for votes and nothing else (these are bitter, untrusting folk, some of them, and they've reason enough for it).
5. Racism -- yeah, it's there, and mixed is worse than black.

Fast Eddie Rendell can say what he wants -- those "white folk who won't vote for a black man" WILL vote for him in the General!

As mentioned above, no part of Arkansas is in Appa...

2008-06-20T08:58:00.000-04:00

As mentioned above, no part of Arkansas is in Appalachia. It is also incorrect to say that Kentucky is "purely" Appalachian. Only the eastern half of Kentucky is in Appalachia. West Virginia is the only state in which every county is an Appalachian county.

As a socially liberal and fiscally conservative pe...

2008-06-19T21:14:00.000-04:00

As a socially liberal and fiscally conservative person, I voted for Reagan the 2nd time (too young the first), Bush I, Bush I, Dole, Bush II. Then I voted for Kerry because at least he didn't seem to lie about everything. Character matters.

I supported McCain in the 2000 primary race. I figured if McCain ever go nominated, I'd vote for him.

I'm voting Obama this year.

Is it 'change'. Probably. I'll be glad never to see a Bush or Clinton in the white house again--sick of their politics and self-centeredness on both sides.

Do I think Obama is Carter II? No. Carter I had some good ideas and some not so good ideas--and he inherited a really crappy economy to boot--not that he helped it.

I'm voting Obama because he is smart, thinking, and by all appearances, fair. Will he raise taxes? probably. Do I want him to? probably--at least in some areas.

Will he shut down Iraq? Probably not immediately--I think in the end he'll be fairly prudent there. Do I know that? no.

Will he spend money? Yes. Will he spend as much as Bush--no.

Will he kowtow to the left? I don't think so--he'll have mainstream centrist support and will hopefully govern to just to the left of center.

Essentially I consider myself a rationalist--lets be pragmatic about what we do--govern to center and be reasonable.

I think Obama is that man. I think McCain isn't the man I voted for in the 2000 primaries. I don't think the man has any vision and isn't a leader.

So yes, I'm voting for Obama because I do want change. I want someone who can form complete sentences and communicate complicated ideas with ease. I want someone respected in the world who can deal with other nations not as if they were inferior to ours or subjugates.

Will I be proven wrong in 2009 or 2010? Maybe. But one never knows until the man is in office.

Of course I live in Georgia so my vote may not mean much....

Turned out to be a thank-you call. Nothing specifi...

2008-06-19T18:24:00.000-04:00

Turned out to be a thank-you call. Nothing specific about her campaign plans. Oh well. I'll just have to wait 'n see like everyone else.

I'm going to be curious to see how Hillary Clinton...

2008-06-19T14:45:00.000-04:00

I'm going to be curious to see how Hillary Clinton is deployed. It's looking quite unlikely that she'll be on the ticket, but that doesn't mean she goes away.

Starting today, she's getting back into the fray on Obama's side. This afternoon, I'm going to be on a Clinton conference call organized on that theme.

I don't know what will happen, but my hunch is that you'll a lot of her in the Ohio River Valley, Missouri, Arkansas and Appalachia.

The big reason I originally supported her was because I thought she could connect with white working class voters who've been going Republican in recent decades.

Little did I know that this would eventually turn into the sort of code talking that characterized her campaign between Februrary and May (and which drove me away, but I think Clinton definitely "found her voice," as she has put it, during those months.

It was NOT all racism, or even predominantly so. This cohort of people has been overlooked, somewhat disrespected, and definitely taken for granted by Democrats for a long time.

Clinton paid attention to them, and I think there's a chance she'll make a difference even if she's not on the ticket. In fact, maybe especially if she's not on the ticket, because if she fulfills her pledge to "work my heart out," she'll come across as being authentic and sincere.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic about this one, but I'd suggest that people ought to stay tuned for some pretty good news.

Arkansas ain't Appalachia, but it has some of the ...

2008-06-19T13:52:00.000-04:00

Arkansas ain't Appalachia, but it has some of the same demographic and historical roots.

At last, we learn, perhaps, that the Appalachian hatred of Obama was really just hostility towards anyone not from there (which is nothing new, and better in some books than masked hostility you see in the Deep South).

That, and gas prices matter.

"When did Arkansas become appalachian?"According t...

2008-06-19T13:34:00.000-04:00

"When did Arkansas become appalachian?"

According to Michael Barone, Arkansas is part of the "Jacksonian" migration, and therefore fits in with the Appalachian states in terms of voting patterns. Coloradoans, on the other hand, are not Jacksonians, and are therefore culturally distinct from Appalachians, even though they are also mountain people.

It all seems a bit arbitrary to me.

When did Arkansas become appalachian? It's in the...

2008-06-19T13:04:00.000-04:00

When did Arkansas become appalachian? It's in the Ozarks and on the west side of the Mississippi River!

Now, there may be simalar demographics between KY and AR, but...

MVRed, Your assumption about Cincinnati may or may...

2008-06-19T11:59:00.000-04:00

MVRed, Your assumption about Cincinnati may or may not still be valid, but I think you're forgetting that Dayton is likely counted in that "SW Ohio" sample. Montgomery County went for Kerry in '04.

What evidence? The evidence I see is that McCain ...

2008-06-19T11:48:00.000-04:00

What evidence? The evidence I see is that McCain is up 8 in WV, and while survey results are a bit wild in Indiana, two of the last three were solidly red and the third had Obama at a mighty +1.

The only 'evidence' is this Obama bounce theory, and we have no evidence this actually works. Take out the bounce theory, and West Virginia is soldly red and Indiana is a pale pink, which is as it should be.

I mean, seriously, if I offered a bet of $1000 that Indiana, West Virginia, and Nevada would all vote for McCain, and all you had to do to win was for one of them to go Obama in November, would you take it? According to 538, that's a sucker bet, but I'm pretty sure who the actual sucker would be.

P.S. I'm a Bill Richardson supporter who's currently leaning heavily towards Obama. This isn't a pro-McCain pipe dream.

MVRed - Your opinion is all well and good, but the...

2008-06-19T11:32:00.000-04:00

MVRed -
Your opinion is all well and good, but the evidence disagrees.

You're wrong. The only way to preserve capitalism,...

2008-06-19T09:49:00.000-04:00

You're wrong. The only way to preserve capitalism, and to stay away from socialism is to elect McCain!

BTW, This site is so far off on states like Indiana and WV, Obama does not stand a chance in these states, but somehow or another they are toss up's according to your math.

Your 538 Regression truly destroys what will likely happen in the fall.

Florida is going Republican folks.

I (still) agree regarding Indiana -- I haven't see...

2008-06-19T07:29:00.000-04:00

I (still) agree regarding Indiana -- I haven't seen anything to justify the large push it has been given in the Obama direction. And FWIW, Nate's own regression model isn't seeing it either. Smart model. Now maybe I'm wrong and the next poll really will turn Indiana blue -- but for now, methinks there's a rather large thumbprint on the scale...

I love this site...the only way to save America (f...

2008-06-19T07:14:00.000-04:00

I love this site...the only way to save America (for real this time) is to elect Obama.

All very much correct, Cugel, except that a four p...

2008-06-19T07:05:00.000-04:00

All very much correct, Cugel, except that a four point popular vote win in a presidential election where only two candidates win electoral votes is a historical rarity -- 1896 being the most recent example, and the only one somewhat resembling a 21st century election. McKinley's 4.31% popular vote win resulted in his receiving 60.6% of the electoral votes. Scaled to 2008, that would be a 326 EV victory for Obama.