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Arkansas ain't Appalachia, but it has some of the same demographic and historical roots.

At last, we learn, perhaps, that the Appalachian hatred of Obama was really just hostility towards anyone not from there (which is nothing new, and better in some books than masked hostility you see in the Deep South).

That, and gas prices matter.

"When did Arkansas become appalachian?"According t...

2008-06-19T13:34:58.949-04:00

"When did Arkansas become appalachian?"

According to Michael Barone, Arkansas is part of the "Jacksonian" migration, and therefore fits in with the Appalachian states in terms of voting patterns. Coloradoans, on the other hand, are not Jacksonians, and are therefore culturally distinct from Appalachians, even though they are also mountain people.

It all seems a bit arbitrary to me.

When did Arkansas become appalachian? It's in the...

2008-06-19T13:04:21.267-04:00

When did Arkansas become appalachian? It's in the Ozarks and on the west side of the Mississippi River!

Now, there may be simalar demographics between KY and AR, but...

MVRed, Your assumption about Cincinnati may or may...

2008-06-19T11:59:23.107-04:00

MVRed, Your assumption about Cincinnati may or may not still be valid, but I think you're forgetting that Dayton is likely counted in that "SW Ohio" sample. Montgomery County went for Kerry in '04.

What evidence? The evidence I see is that McCain ...

2008-06-19T11:48:11.391-04:00

What evidence? The evidence I see is that McCain is up 8 in WV, and while survey results are a bit wild in Indiana, two of the last three were solidly red and the third had Obama at a mighty +1.

The only 'evidence' is this Obama bounce theory, and we have no evidence this actually works. Take out the bounce theory, and West Virginia is soldly red and Indiana is a pale pink, which is as it should be.

I mean, seriously, if I offered a bet of $1000 that Indiana, West Virginia, and Nevada would all vote for McCain, and all you had to do to win was for one of them to go Obama in November, would you take it? According to 538, that's a sucker bet, but I'm pretty sure who the actual sucker would be.

P.S. I'm a Bill Richardson supporter who's currently leaning heavily towards Obama. This isn't a pro-McCain pipe dream.

MVRed - Your opinion is all well and good, but the...

2008-06-19T11:32:57.125-04:00

MVRed -
Your opinion is all well and good, but the evidence disagrees.

You're wrong. The only way to preserve capitalism,...

2008-06-19T09:49:53.009-04:00

You're wrong. The only way to preserve capitalism, and to stay away from socialism is to elect McCain!

BTW, This site is so far off on states like Indiana and WV, Obama does not stand a chance in these states, but somehow or another they are toss up's according to your math.

Your 538 Regression truly destroys what will likely happen in the fall.

Florida is going Republican folks.

I (still) agree regarding Indiana -- I haven't see...

2008-06-19T07:29:14.518-04:00

I (still) agree regarding Indiana -- I haven't seen anything to justify the large push it has been given in the Obama direction. And FWIW, Nate's own regression model isn't seeing it either. Smart model. Now maybe I'm wrong and the next poll really will turn Indiana blue -- but for now, methinks there's a rather large thumbprint on the scale...

I love this site...the only way to save America (f...

2008-06-19T07:14:18.403-04:00

I love this site...the only way to save America (for real this time) is to elect Obama.

All very much correct, Cugel, except that a four p...

2008-06-19T07:05:44.373-04:00

All very much correct, Cugel, except that a four point popular vote win in a presidential election where only two candidates win electoral votes is a historical rarity -- 1896 being the most recent example, and the only one somewhat resembling a 21st century election. McKinley's 4.31% popular vote win resulted in his receiving 60.6% of the electoral votes. Scaled to 2008, that would be a 326 EV victory for Obama.

All this complex statistical analysis is a complet...

2008-06-19T06:53:23.098-04:00

All this complex statistical analysis is a complete waste of time until late October.

Then why are you visiting this site? Concern trolling? General jackassery?

this data means nothing to meNo one cares.

2008-06-19T06:51:56.900-04:00

this data means nothing to me

No one cares.

Obama's appalling appalachian, er, apple problem (...

2008-06-19T06:49:16.904-04:00

Obama's appalling appalachian, er, apple problem (or was it Appalachia's problem with him?)was just one of a series of phoney primary season arguments. Like some people wanted to believe that some people voted for Hillary over Obama not because they preferred her or merely because they had heard of her and not him but because everyone in that part of the world was an unreconstructed, unmitigated racist.

You're misinformed. The perception of an Appalachian problem was evidence-based.

I suppose it's just impossible to prevent people w...

2008-06-19T02:57:37.041-04:00

I suppose it's just impossible to prevent people who have no understanding of what this site is about from posting nonsense. It's too bad, because it's distracting from a reasoned discussion, but I suppose inevitable.

What on earth do people THINK the state by state election projection would look like at a time when Obama has a +4% national lead?

Nate just published the graph last Monday showing the expected electoral vote breakdown from a +5 national vote margin is 330 electoral votes. So, given Obama's current +4 lead he should have somewhere between around 315-330 EVs. Which is right where the projection shows him to be right now!

Will that lead hold up? Who the hell knows? But, unless the national polling changes then that Blue-Blue map is something Republicans are just going to have to get used to, because that's exactly what you would expect to see!

And unless something changes for McCain there's no reason to change the projections on this site.

What do these idiots want? That Nate should somehow "project" that the race will tighten up, just to feed their "gut instinct" of what they think will happen in November?

If anything that Obama bounce is MORE pronounced in blue/purple states like Ohio, Virginia and other battlegrounds, because there are a lot more disaffected Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents who are currently moving to Obama. You can bet that he's NOT bouncing to the same degree in states like Mississippi or Oklahoma where there are a lot more Republicans and fewer Democratic voters for Obama to "consolidate." That means he's bouncing MORE in states where voters are more persuadable for Obama.

To get to around 330 EV, Obama would need to win a bunch of states like Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia. And that's exactly what the state by state polling is now reflecting.

So, the national polling and the state-by-state polling are showing exactly the same thing, which is mutually reinforcing. And the regression analysis matches up very well with a 330 EV projection which in turn is exactly what you'd expect if Obama is winning by +4 nationally.

So far, everything ties in together to paint a consistent picture of an election with Obama in a relatively NARROW lead historically, but a WIDER lead than Bush had in either of the last two elections.

In short, the election so far is looking more like Clinton in 1996 (although NOT to quite that degree) and less like Bush 2004 (squeaker), which would NOT exactly be a total shock if it turned out that way. Instead it would be a reversion to NORMAL historical elections where one side or the other had a narrow but significant advantage.

As a poster above pointed out, this is still nothing like Reagan 1980 territory, let alone Nixon 1972, Johnson 1964 or Reagan 1984.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem?

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