Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: More Evidence on Middle-Class Belt Tightening

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2009-09-14T07:13:13.562-04:00

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2009-04-16T01:43:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-28T05:20:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-16T04:50:00.000-05:00

As a Manhattan resident, I have always found natio...

2009-01-02T22:53:00.000-05:00

As a Manhattan resident, I have always found national income brackets rather astonishing in their inapplicability to my world.

Here, unskilled transit workers (the ones who sweep the platforms) make $68K, an immigrant friend of mine makes $80K as a non-union apartment painter, individual medical insurance costs $800+/month (we're a community rated state, so anyone can buy it), a really cheap studio apartment is over $1000/month, and if you can afford a car and Manhattan insurance rates, you cannot find a parking garage within walking distance for less than $450/month. (And that's the one that once lost my car. Real garages cost $550+.)

$30K here is close to poverty. $100K is middle class. Why aren't these surveys (not to mention federal tax rates) ever adjusted for regional cost of living??

Danny Boy is right: the chart (by itself) doesn't...

2009-01-02T15:30:00.000-05:00

Danny Boy is right: the chart (by itself) doesn't support Nate's claim that "it's the middle class which is doing the most to cut back on its discretionary expenditures." That's because the chart under-represents changes among diners who dine out more than the category threshold of one night out per week. As as result, the chart says little about the dining habits of upper-income households, who we would expect to dine out more frequently, and it should not lead us to conclude that "the frequency of dining out is essentially unchanged among American households making more than $75,000 per year." So while you can use the chart to draw conclusions about households near the category threshold, you can't reasonably use it to draw conclusions about upper-income households, nor should you use it to make class comparisons.

Note: Please understand that I am commenting only on Nate's claims about what the chart suggests, not upon the broader economic situation.

Correlating data from restaurant proprietors and s...

2009-01-01T20:06:00.000-05:00

Correlating data from restaurant proprietors and suppliers would be helpful. Even more-so, perhaps, data from the credit and debit processing networks, where even the low risk (of charge-back) restaurant category has 4 or 5 different rates depending on type of facility.
------------------------
"I strenuously object?" Is that how it works? Hm? "Objection." "Overruled." "Oh, no, no, no. No, I STRENUOUSLY object." "Oh. Well, if you strenuously object then I should take some time to reconsider."

The above quote was from PoliticalWire.

2009-01-01T17:34:00.001-05:00

The above quote was from PoliticalWire.

"A new CNN poll finds that three-quarters of the A...

2009-01-01T17:34:00.000-05:00

"A new CNN poll finds that three-quarters of the American public thinks President-elect Obama is a strong and decisive leader, "the highest marks for a president-elect on that characteristic in nearly three decades."

Said pollster Keating Holland: "That's the best number an incoming president has gotten on that dimension since Ronald Reagan took office in 1981. The public's rating of his leadership skills is already as high as George W. Bush's was after 9/11 and easily beats the numbers that both Bush and Bill Clinton got at the start of their first terms in office." "

Smart guys - Does all the anecdotal evidence in th...

2009-01-01T16:13:00.000-05:00

Smart guys -

Does all the anecdotal evidence in the rest of the economy, and the comments of the restaurant industry - that happens to agree 100% with Nate and not you - mean anything?

http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/rockytalklive/archives/2008/07/bennigans_closes_are_you_dinin.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/01/nyregion/01resolutions.html

http://www.mercurynews.com/centralcoast/ci_11307399

Fredct I am ashamed to share a name with you.fredc...

2009-01-01T15:59:00.000-05:00

Fredct I am ashamed to share a name with you.

fredct said:

"Its entirely possible that maybe the 30-50K group has dropped their average eating out from, say, 1.3 times per week to 1.02 times per week - leading to a drop of people says 'once or more' from mid-60s to mid-50s.

At the same time, its entirely possible that the $75K and over group has dropped their average eating out from, say, 3.5 times per week to 2.2 times per week. Only a small portion of which would have dropped under the 1 threshold, but yet a much larger change than the middle group (4x larger).

Is it also possible that very few of the $75K group and larger has changed their behavior at all? It certainly is, but this data does not tell us. And you using this data to try to reach that conclusion is disappointing - and sloppy, sloppy, sloppy."

It is also possible that the three year difference significantly changed the kind of people in that cohort, it is also possible that little green men came from Mars and teleported people on the night of the Gallup poll and changed the cohort, it is also possible that you have never done a poll, and are a crazy asshole stats guy. Fred, are you really Zogby and are just jealous?

Think about it asshole - do you remember the number of the times you have eaten out for every week of the last four, where you ate, what you spent? I am sure that is the question they would like to ask and the data to collect, but there are two problems:

1) People don't remember, and

2) If they do they are likely to think are you overly prying and will either lie or not answer.

Stick to stats smart guy.

Well, it does seem we have some folks who wish all...

2009-01-01T15:52:00.000-05:00

Well, it does seem we have some folks who wish all data was perfect data. It isn't and a good scientist can extrapolate from less than perfect data to plan the next experiment. Statisticians often believe no conclusion can be drawn or trend can be seen, when it really can and the data clearly says it. Is that the real difference between bench (e.g. real)scientists and stats guys? The ability to understand the data, and thus interpret it on a deeper level, than the blank faced stats guy? Sure, the data can't be published unless your gut reaction is correct, but some of us actually produce (or for myself, used to produce) real data and we had to plan the next experiment in the face of these naysayers and the data.

To the specific naysayers above - what do you think of the huge eating out drop I noted from the study in particular age groups? What is the most logical interpretation of the data? Does it matter that Gallup (the folks who produced the data) basically agrees with Nate and not you?

What is wrong with you...STepper, fredct. I would ...

2009-01-01T15:13:00.000-05:00

What is wrong with you...STepper, fredct. I would suggest you, and the rest of you naysayers, get back on your medication...except for the fact no medication exists that can cure jealousy.
Nate keep up the great work!

Nate, this is highly disappointing. Either its slo...

2009-01-01T14:54:00.000-05:00

Nate, this is highly disappointing. Either its sloppy interpretation on your part, or its someone seeing what they want to see, not what the data says.

I'm fairly liberal, I see conservative blogs do it all the time, and its very disappointing to see you appear to exhibit the same behavior.

To try to use this data to say show that the middle class needs the economic stimulus more is just a personal interpretation and not anything the data actually says.

Its entirely possible that maybe the 30-50K group has dropped their average eating out from, say, 1.3 times per week to 1.02 times per week - leading to a drop of people says 'once or more' from mid-60s to mid-50s.

At the same time, its entirely possible that the $75K and over group has dropped their average eating out from, say, 3.5 times per week to 2.2 times per week. Only a small portion of which would have dropped under the 1 threshold, but yet a much larger change than the middle group (4x larger).

Is it also possible that very few of the $75K group and larger has changed their behavior at all? It certainly is, but this data does not tell us. And you using this data to try to reach that conclusion is disappointing - and sloppy, sloppy, sloppy.

here's what a hostess at a Very popular tourist br...

2009-01-01T12:55:00.000-05:00

here's what a hostess at a Very popular tourist breakfast place (serves till 2-3pm) told me yesterday:

business may appear to be holding steady (cause of the lines -there is only so long people will wait) but actual receipts are down as most people are not ordering drinks anymore, just drinking free water .. this results in dramatically lower earnings for the restaurant/staff think she said it's something over 10% off from the same number of tables served in past years.

@300-450 tables/day

The most important documents that belong in the Bu...

2009-01-01T11:36:00.000-05:00

The most important documents that belong in the Bush library will have been erased already, though perhaps archived somewhere. All those communications that are supposed to be part of the public record -- but deleted from Cheney's (and his underling's), Rove's, and others' e-mails are gone.

So now the Bush team is trying to salvage something of a legacy, and hoping that many tracks have been covered. Don't we all look forward to Alberto Gonzales's memoire? Could Dick Cheney write a tell-all book? I won't believe a word of either one without the real-time archive of communications and memoranda.

happy new year everybody andwhy would they need do...

2009-01-01T09:51:00.000-05:00

happy new year everybody and

why would they need donations for Bush's library? how much do a few copies of My Pet Goat cost?
Cheap joke, I know, but gotta make the most of the next 19 days before he's GONE!

...and 1000 more lawyer jokes.http://www.ahajokes....

2009-01-01T09:14:00.000-05:00

...and 1000 more lawyer jokes.

http://www.ahajokes.com/lawyer_jokes.html

I am an attorney, but I fully understand why people hate some of us.

What is 1000 attorneys at the bottom of the ocean?...

2009-01-01T09:13:00.000-05:00

What is 1000 attorneys at the bottom of the ocean?

A good start

STepper, why don't you start your own blog and pos...

2009-01-01T09:04:00.000-05:00

STepper, why don't you start your own blog and post your legal analysis there since you're such a good attorney? I have nothing against healthy criticism but I think your comments on Nate's previous post are not constructive at all, you're just being nasty! I can't imagine the 08' election and my daily political reading without this blog and I'm really grateful to Nate for keeping it and posting every day. He's the most talented writer around so please leave him alone!!

Happy New Year to Nate and staff & everyone who reads this site!

A lighter version of the last post (all in good fu...

2009-01-01T05:07:00.000-05:00

A lighter version of the last post (all in good fun):

This is from a book called Disorder in the American Courts, and is an actual cross examination in court, word for word, taken down by a court reporter and now published. I pity the court reporter who had the torment of staying calm during this exchange.

ATTORNEY: Doctor, before you performed the autopsy, did you check for a pulse?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: Did you check for blood pressure?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY Did you check for breathing?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: So, then it is possible that the patient was alive when you began the autopsy?

WITNESS: No.

ATTORNEY: How can you be so sure, Doctor?

WITNESS: Because his brain was sitting on my desk in a jar.

ATTORNEY: But could the patient have still been alive, nevertheless?

WITNESS: Yes, it is possible that he could have been alive and practicing law.

STepper said...(whatever)Did it ever occur to you ...

2009-01-01T03:28:00.000-05:00

STepper said...
(whatever)

Did it ever occur to you that attorneys, on the whole, 'win' only 1/2 their cases when they go to court? One attorney (or team of attorneys) wins the case, and one attorney (or team of attorneys) loses the case. One attorney may win every case they argue in court in their career, but that only means another attorney loses all his/her cases, or (more likely) that means many attorneys lose more cases than they win.

What does that mean?

Maybe that one attorney (or team of attorneys) is blowing smoke out of their nether regions in court, thus they lose a case or many cases (or because of the judges are stupid, that's why they win the case(s)? Which means they shouldn't be practicing law?

Or that there might be many opinions of what the facts actually are, and how the facts and law might be interpreted in court and in the court of public opinion? Which means the attorney(s) losing cases shouldn't be practicing law, otherwise they would be winning cases?

Or did you ever consider that the stereotype the public holds regarding attorneys just might be true? That stereotype is that most attorneys think of themselves as knowing everything and everyone else is road kill, therefore there is a propensity for attorneys to be braggarts, and tell everyone else to leave the interpretation of law to the lawyers, because only lawyers CAN know what the law says and should say. The stereotype also holds that many, or even most, attorneys are actually dumber than male bovine droppings, especially when it comes to that non-legal term labeled common sense.

Therefore, did it ever occur to you that the stereotype just might have some validity to it, especially when applied to some attorneys?

My money is on the stereotype explanation. You reinforce the stereotype with your baseless allegation of why Nate posted information about a Gallup poll

ESPECIALLY WHEN NATE MAKES COMMENTS ABOUT SOME OF THE LIMITATIONS OF THAT POLL.

STepper: I was going to let this slide but you po...

2008-12-31T22:54:00.000-05:00

STepper: I was going to let this slide but you posted a second time. So, GET OVER IT. At the end of the day, this is a BLOG, not Matthew Bender. The earth does not stop turning on its axis depending on what Nate Silver posts on FiveThirtyEight.com. If he wants to write about his analysis of constitutional law, it's not like he's practicing law without a license.

People like you are the reason lawyers have a reputation as assholes. Go have a drink and try to regain some perspective.

Oh, and Burris, also now in court, won't be seated...

2008-12-31T22:31:00.000-05:00

Oh, and Burris, also now in court, won't be seated.

My 3 New Year's prophecies:

Unless he withdraws,Burris will be seated.
Franken is seated.
The Yankees finally win #27.

Have people figured out that this nonsense thread ...

2008-12-31T22:24:00.000-05:00

Have people figured out that this nonsense thread was thrown up because Nate wanted to change the subject from his disastrous prior post (which he modified several times but still couldn't completely contain)? Hell of a way to end the year after so many triumphs.

Happy New Year everyone. Thanks, Nate for this site. Everyone is entitled to screw up once in a while.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: More Evidence on Middle-Class Belt Tightening

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

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豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看 捷克論壇 微風論壇 ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

As a Manhattan resident, I have always found natio...

Danny Boy is right: the chart (by itself) doesn't...

Correlating data from restaurant proprietors and s...

The above quote was from PoliticalWire.

"A new CNN poll finds that three-quarters of the A...

Smart guys - Does all the anecdotal evidence in th...

Fredct I am ashamed to share a name with you.fredc...

Well, it does seem we have some folks who wish all...

What is wrong with you...STepper, fredct. I would ...

Nate, this is highly disappointing. Either its slo...

here's what a hostess at a Very popular tourist br...

The most important documents that belong in the Bu...

happy new year everybody andwhy would they need do...

...and 1000 more lawyer jokes.http://www.ahajokes....

What is 1000 attorneys at the bottom of the ocean?...

STepper, why don't you start your own blog and pos...

A lighter version of the last post (all in good fu...

STepper said...(whatever)Did it ever occur to you ...

STepper: I was going to let this slide but you po...

Oh, and Burris, also now in court, won't be seated...

Have people figured out that this nonsense thread ...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇 ...