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2009-02-12T22:28:00.000-05:00

I agree with you jsh1120. I want to know precisel...

2008-06-20T00:21:41.988-04:00

I agree with you jsh1120. I want to know precisely what numbers Rasmussen uses in weighting his state polls. Does he keep a state-by-state party-ID average? Does he use 2004 turnout (which would be incredibly unreliable)? Does he use the national numbers?

Anyone?

You're correct, Richard. At least from what I know...

2008-06-19T18:50:11.711-04:00

You're correct, Richard. At least from what I know. And I also believe that Rasmussen began more frequent updating of the partisan weights only after being seriously out of date awhile back.

Personally, I find ANY weighting by partisanship to be only one step away from weighting responses to a candidate preference poll by a predetermined split of candidate preferences. Totally unacceptable. But I'm an old school pollster. And some folks disagree.

In any event, there are several questions that remain. One is why Rasmussen's partisan split consistently favors the GOP compared to most other national pollsters. (My guess is that it may be the result of fewer callbacks and more substitutes. Perhaps they even weight the partisan ID by partisan ID, though that seems especially crazy.)

The other question is that since partisan ID obviously varies by state, if they weight by partisan ID, what figures do they use in state level polls.

I'd love it if someone could provide a definitive answer to these questions.

I think I may have found the answer the question o...

2008-06-19T16:57:25.488-04:00

I think I may have found the answer the question of how Rasmussen handles party identification weighting: at least for national polling he uses a the three-month average of the responses to his party identification question, updated monthly. So his party identification figures will lag behind other pollsters by by several months, his polls would be slow to respond to registration drives and swings in party identification.

I don't know how this affects his state polls. Are his party identification numbers for states figured the same way?

Nate, I've watched Rasmussen's results for several...

2008-06-19T13:10:33.106-04:00

Nate,
I've watched Rasmussen's results for several years and have been under the strong impression that unlike some other pollsters, Rasmussen weights their results according to pre-determined partisan ID split.

Given that Rasmussen generally shows a larger percentage of GOP identifiers (less so recently) than other organizations, I've generally applied a rule-of-thumb that Rasmussen's results, while "reliable" are usually tilted a few percentage points in favor of GOP candidates.

For what it's worth, I tested my impression on Rasmussen's 2006 US Senate polls that (if memory serves) showed a higher GOP percentage in the last pre-election poll than the candidate received in 19 of 21 races.

Given your new relationship with Rasmussen, I'm wondering if you can confirm these impressions.

And if my belief that Rasmussen weights their results according to a pre-determined partisan ID split is correct, I'm interested in how you view that practice. (It seems to me to be particularly illegitimate.)

This is a great site, but I don't get how you give...

2008-06-19T08:45:53.458-04:00

This is a great site, but I don't get how you give Obama such a great chance in certain states. These guys did a pretty good summary on that:

http://beyondthepolls.blogspot.com/2008/06/giggle-test.html

Well, for example. In 2004, Kerry lost the popula...

2008-06-19T02:09:28.022-04:00

Well, for example. In 2004, Kerry lost the popular vote by about 2 points. Kerry did 3 points worse in FL, losing by 5. So if Obama were now up by 4 nationwide, he should only be up by 1 point in FL -- not by 5 as ARG says. A 5 point lead in FL means Obama should be around 8 points up nationwide.

Mike in Cali on Pollster.com is not me. I am Mike H in Cali.

Mike H in Cali said... "1. How come there is such ...

2008-06-18T23:23:13.799-04:00

Mike H in Cali said...

"1. How come there is such a discrepancy between the national polls showing Obama up by 4 points on average and the state-by-state polls with numbers that would indicate Obama is ahead by like 9 points nationally (e.g., winning FL by 5, PA by 11 or 12, New England by 20 or so, WI by 9-13)?"

Not sure where you're getting that state-by-state numbers indicate Obama is up by 9 or so. Nate's popular vote estimate is almost identical to the national polling averages (538 currently has Obama up 4.4%). It is derived from his state-by-state projections, which in turn are based on the state-by-state polling.

BTW, I've seen you post over at pollster.com. Welcome to 538--it's like pollster, but way better.

Anonymous @ 8:53p: "Peter B, "rich white neighborh...

2008-06-18T23:20:54.007-04:00

Anonymous @ 8:53p: "Peter B, "rich white neighborhood" & "gated golf course community" lines? Don't you watch TV?"

*Snort*

Just what we need - concern troll wingers who get all their news from TV.

Dude, thanks for providing more evidence that the mainstream TV media is painfully biased towards the right *and* woefully misinforming the public.

.

Western Swing: "I realize this is a small nit to p...

2008-06-18T23:13:58.704-04:00

Western Swing: "I realize this is a small nit to pick but no part of Arkansas is in Appalachia as conventionally defined."

Arkansas is largely in the Ozarks, and that area tends to have a similiar voting record as KY & WV.

I think Nate is using 'Appalachia' here as shorthand for the kind of voters with Scots-Irish heritage that typically identify as 'American' in censuses and populate the Appalchian and Ozark regions.

Hope that helps.

.

Um, am I the only one to notice that all of 538's ...

2008-06-18T22:22:08.859-04:00

Um, am I the only one to notice that all of 538's posts are archived? What are people complaining? Look at the lower left hand part of the page.

I've a hunch Nate did live in Hyde Park or vicinit...

2008-06-18T22:07:41.422-04:00

I've a hunch Nate did live in Hyde Park or vicinity since he attended University of Chicago. But I doubt sincerely that he can afford to buy a house in that neighborhood unless he makes a whale of lot more money writing about baseball than anyone can imagine.

Peter B, "rich white neighborhood" & "gated golf c...

2008-06-18T21:54:46.526-04:00

Peter B, "rich white neighborhood" & "gated golf course community" lines? Don't you watch TV? Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil--that's you. That is where Rev. Wright is moving courtesy Trinity Church--fore!

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/721609/bill_oreilly_says_obamas_pastor_is.html?cat=7

I don't know much about Hyde Park, but I saw a picture of his crib & it looks nice.

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=206601&src=1

Nate needs to move in with his peeps.

I agree with preader. Article says McCain is up by...

2008-06-18T21:38:40.328-04:00

I agree with preader. Article says McCain is up by 11 in Indiana. I'd be curious in what poll since none on the right are such.

OK, here I go off topic:Anon 20:10 -- It looks str...

2008-06-18T21:29:42.162-04:00

OK, here I go off topic:

Anon 20:10 -- It looks strikingly like Virginia, an omen perhaps?

Anon rap artist -- I'm curious, why the "rich white neighborhood" & "gated golf course community" lines? Nate lives in the Mexican part of town. And Hyde Park is majority black. On that note, the charges of Hyde Park elitism always strike me as kind of odd. Yes, Sen. Obama's house is worth $1 million (in the still inflated real estate bubble), but the neighborhood is also really mixed socioeconomically--the Obamas live around the corner from fairly cheap apartment buildings.

Nate-Please debunk this for everyone. A 50-50 cha...

2008-06-18T21:14:36.430-04:00

Nate-

Please debunk this for everyone. A 50-50 chance that Obama wins popular vote and loses the electoral college?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11182.html

Is it just me, or does the EV distribution chart l...

2008-06-18T21:10:20.554-04:00

Is it just me, or does the EV distribution chart look a lot like Virginia?

1. How come there is such a discrepancy between t...

2008-06-18T21:03:07.045-04:00

1. How come there is such a discrepancy between the national polls showing Obama up by 4 points on average and the state-by-state polls with numbers that would indicate Obama is ahead by like 9 points nationally (e.g., winning FL by 5, PA by 11 or 12, New England by 20 or so, WI by 9-13)?

2. ARG is so bad that even though it is based in New Hampshire, ARG got the NH primary winner wrong like everyone else. It's like the Raleigh, NC-based PPP that was way off on the NC primary.

If Rasmussen and Survey USA agree on a state, go with that.

Nate, several people have questioned the huge spik...

2008-06-18T20:48:05.299-04:00

Nate, several people have questioned the huge spike just north of 500 delegates. Could you give us a little explanation of what this represents? Is it, as I suspect, the effect of Texas jumping to Obama?

Nate,i realize this is a small nit to pick but no...

2008-06-18T20:10:29.160-04:00

Nate,

i realize this is a small nit to pick but no part of Arkansas is in Appalachia as conventionally defined.

Anonymous at 18:58 - Mr Bennett, I think your taki...

2008-06-18T20:09:35.392-04:00

Anonymous at 18:58 - Mr Bennett, I think your taking this too far!

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18

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I agree with you jsh1120. I want to know precisel...

You're correct, Richard. At least from what I know...

I think I may have found the answer the question o...

Nate, I've watched Rasmussen's results for several...

This is a great site, but I don't get how you give...

Well, for example. In 2004, Kerry lost the popula...

Mike H in Cali said... "1. How come there is such ...

Anonymous @ 8:53p: "Peter B, "rich white neighborh...

Western Swing: "I realize this is a small nit to p...

Um, am I the only one to notice that all of 538's ...

I've a hunch Nate did live in Hyde Park or vicinit...

Peter B, "rich white neighborhood" & "gated golf c...

I agree with preader. Article says McCain is up by...

OK, here I go off topic:Anon 20:10 -- It looks str...

Nate-Please debunk this for everyone. A 50-50 cha...

Is it just me, or does the EV distribution chart l...

1. How come there is such a discrepancy between t...

Nate, several people have questioned the huge spik...

Nate,i realize this is a small nit to pick but no...

Anonymous at 18:58 - Mr Bennett, I think your taki...

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18

徵信 徵信社 私家偵探 偵探社 免費法律諮詢 捉姦 抓姦 尋人 徵信社 徵信 尋人 徵信公司 徵信...

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I agree with you jsh1120. I want to know precisel...

You're correct, Richard. At least from what I know...

I think I may have found the answer the question o...

Nate, I've watched Rasmussen's results for several...

This is a great site, but I don't get how you give...

Well, for example. In 2004, Kerry lost the popula...

Mike H in Cali said... "1. How come there is such ...

Anonymous @ 8:53p: "Peter B, "rich white neighborh...

Western Swing: "I realize this is a small nit to p...

Um, am I the only one to notice that all of 538's ...

I've a hunch Nate did live in Hyde Park or vicinit...

Peter B, "rich white neighborhood" & "gated golf c...

I agree with preader. Article says McCain is up by...

OK, here I go off topic:Anon 20:10 -- It looks str...

Nate-Please debunk this for everyone. A 50-50 cha...

Is it just me, or does the EV distribution chart l...

1. How come there is such a discrepancy between t...

Nate, several people have questioned the huge spik...

Nate,i realize this is a small nit to pick but no...

Anonymous at 18:58 - Mr Bennett, I think your taki...

徵信徵信社私家偵探偵探社免費法律諮詢捉姦抓姦尋人徵信社徵信尋人徵信公司徵信...