Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Webb Out; Who's Up? [UPDATED]

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2009-02-14T01:49:00.000-05:00

Worthwhile to remember that Obama has said the VP ...

2008-07-12T22:07:00.000-04:00

Worthwhile to remember that Obama has said the VP pick must be seen instantly as someone who could be President, by the broad public.

Tim Kaine may not fit that test.

Also, Obama needs to neutralize military and national security gap, and offer reassurance on experience.

Sen Bill Nelson of FL fits that test, and so does ex Sen Sam Nunn of Georgia. Such a pick could put both those states in play, where McCain would have to spend tons of time in those 2 states to defend them, thereby taking away precious time for McCain in OH, PA and MI.

Richardson is disliked by scientists after his ten...

2008-07-10T13:15:00.000-04:00

Richardson is disliked by scientists after his tenure at DOE, especially the Wen Ho Lee affair. His way of controlling nuclear waste (especially the really low-level, manageable stuff, which is the only stuff that anybody has gotten a good handle on anyway) was to turn it into mountains of paperwork. I suspect that the Obama campaign has its ear to that ground better than the press or intrade, so that alone might be a reason to short Richardson by a few points.

It seems to me that the VP would be from a State t...

2008-07-09T21:38:00.000-04:00

It seems to me that the VP would be from a State the Obama is highly likely to win, because aside from the crooks Nixon/Agnew, I don't think there is a case of a President being elected who didn't win both his home state and the state of the VP.

I'd put a good money on Kaine. He's going to be t...

2008-07-09T01:04:00.000-04:00

I'd put a good money on Kaine. He's going to be the guy, I believe.

About Bill Richardson being hispanic, will that re...

2008-07-08T16:49:00.000-04:00

About Bill Richardson being hispanic, will that really be a problem? The sort of low-information voter who would vote specifically against a Black/Hispanic ticket would also be hard to convince that someone with a name as gringo as "Bill Richardson" is hispanic in the first place.

It's Bill Richardson. Take that to the bank. I got...

2008-07-08T16:20:00.000-04:00

It's Bill Richardson. Take that to the bank. I got this from an impeccable source on the ground. Obama has at least 5 promising combinations or permutations to get to 270. They think the quick and dirty way to get over the top without McCain not knowing what hit him is to go the Colorado-New Mexico-Iowa route and keep all states that Kerry carried . No states won by Kerry leans GOP at this time. It's consistent in all electoral college maps I have seen so far including this one: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content
/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential
_election/election_2008_electoral_college
_update

However, things might change if Romney is on the ticket because he might put Michigan in play. That may force Obama to look for another route including one through Florida.

Had never heard of Brian Schweitzer until very rec...

2008-07-08T15:57:00.000-04:00

Had never heard of Brian Schweitzer until very recently. Had a look at a few clips of him on YouTube - impressive speaker, makes a good impression. Could seem Obama/Schweitzer really working. Does anyone know if they know each other or get on well?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUr48lg9Ocs

Jerry Brown -- Catholic, Governor, Mayor, Attorney...

2008-07-08T14:10:00.000-04:00

Jerry Brown -- Catholic, Governor, Mayor, Attorney General who isn't a weirdo, worked with Mother Theresa, called the Calif. Democratic Party on corrupting influence of special interest money, saw the environment as issue well in advance, tough enough to be an attack dog and Brown is also a great name to have for anyone running in Ohio.

Thematically his is like Obama:
Visionary, Forward thinking, change, not Washington, reform candidate as opposed to establishment candidate.

Either Obama picks someone thematically like himself or he picks a respectable non-Southern Democrat who is mostly a non-factor, place holder, because this election is really about Obama and what he thematically stands for.

It is going to be Schweitzer. The polls are close ...

2008-07-08T13:54:00.000-04:00

It is going to be Schweitzer. The polls are close in OH and NV and Obama will plan for the worst which is he loses those states. But as he is 'more comfortably' ahead in CO and NM and if he wins all Kerry states, splits ME and NE and if he wins MT he is at 270! He is ahead slightly in MT and picking Schweitzer will make it 'surer'.

such sweet thunder,I'm definitely putting money on...

2008-07-08T13:35:00.000-04:00

such sweet thunder,

I'm definitely putting money on Sherrod Brown. Sexy liberal Ohio senator 34 years in elected office (yet he's only 56 and still a regular person). Judging by his senate election, he's ready to campaign until he's hoarse & withered. He arouses fear in the hearts of Republicans and other feelings in the hearts of voters. The only argument against him might be that he's too skeptical of free trade pacts and maybe he's seen as too valuable in the senate.

I'll throw out a real dark horse that I haven't se...

2008-07-08T12:43:00.000-04:00

I'll throw out a real dark horse that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere. Gov. Bill Ritter of CO. Former DA, family man, 51, convention's home state, very popular Democrat in a changing purple state. It all seems to fit Obama's change message. The big missing item on the resume that the media will jump on is foreign policy experience.

Bob Graham, anyone?Foreign policy chops, former go...

2008-07-08T11:49:00.000-04:00

Bob Graham, anyone?

Foreign policy chops, former governor, popular in FL, and old white dude.

He's a little kooky, but what the heck. Is there a reason he isn't a member of that very long "short" list?

Please, anybody but Bloomberg.What has he done exc...

2008-07-08T10:09:00.000-04:00

Please, anybody but Bloomberg.

What has he done except ride the coattails of Wall Street and the housing market?

Failed on congestion pricing, failed on the west side railyards, failed on the Olympics.

Nobody in politics gets more credit for doing less.

Rooting for Biden over here.

Cugel-Governors do NOT have a particularly easier ...

2008-07-08T10:07:00.000-04:00

Cugel-

Governors do NOT have a particularly easier time becoming President. I think exactly one more governor than senator has become President, and obviously this year will re-tie the score.

A lot of this "senator vs. governor" stuff started because of Rush's blather in 2004 trying to assure his listeners that Bush was okay against Kerry. Do you know why more senators whiff on their run for President than governors? Because there are 100 senators and 50 governors. The math follow pretty simply from there.

-D

Obama should reach across the aisle and select Bil...

2008-07-08T07:56:00.000-04:00

Obama should reach across the aisle and select Bill Sali, District I rep from Idaho, as his running mate.

No he should not.

If Obama gives the VP slot to any Republican, then his political judgment is a lot worse than I thought. Just imagine the possibility of Obama's own Vice President challenging him in the 2012 election . . . and Obama would have been the one to hand him all the advantages that such a high profile brings with it.

Even if that doesn't happen, you know Obama's VP will run in 2016. Why give any Republican a boost in that race?

"Reaching across the aisle" is awful tactically (it weakens the Democratic Party brand by saying, hey, we couldn't find a single qualified candidate for VP from within our own party) and insane from a strategic standpoint.

Why on God's earth would a governor of a major sta...

2008-07-08T07:44:00.000-04:00

Why on God's earth would a governor of a major state like Florida give up being Governor to become a U.S. Senator?

He wouldn't. But Gov. Crist would appoint Nelson's replacement, and since Crist is a Republican, so would be his pick. It would then be an incredibly difficult pickup for whoever the Florida Democratic Party could scare up to run for it.

Not like it would make much difference - Nelson has been a DINO for years anyway.

My short list -- all acceptable: Gore, Schweitzer,...

2008-07-08T06:30:00.000-04:00

My short list -- all acceptable: Gore, Schweitzer, Sebelius.

Colin Powell is a no. Had he resigned in protest a...

2008-07-08T02:19:00.000-04:00

Colin Powell is a no. Had he resigned in protest after being put up to lie about Iraq, he might be more viable, but even so, he's been a loyal Republican. Even if he publicly endorses Obama, he should not and I strongly believe will not be picked for VP.

15-1 on Kaine is a bargain.He brings Virginia, Cat...

2008-07-08T01:35:00.000-04:00

15-1 on Kaine is a bargain.

He brings Virginia, Catholics, and has connections in Kansas and Missouri as well. He's also fluent in Spanish, and was "the first major Dem. official outside of Illinois to endorse Obama." He seems to love Obama (in a brotherly way). My fictitious money is on Kaine. That's my advice if anyone wants to put real money on it.

Oh...what about Tom Daschle?True that he wouldn't ...

2008-07-08T00:57:00.000-04:00

Oh...what about Tom Daschle?

True that he wouldn't be able to pull in South Dakota, but definitely some of the other, closer Western states!

Evan Bayh or Bob Schweitzer. Midwest or West.Inter...

2008-07-08T00:53:00.000-04:00

Evan Bayh or Bob Schweitzer. Midwest or West.

Interstingly, an Obama-Bayh team would sort of be a 21st-century version of Clinton-Gore: two young(ish), articulate men from neighbouring states, exception in this case it would be a MidWestern team as opposed to Southern.

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