Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/26

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2009-10-03T04:17:15.515-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:44:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:44:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T02:13:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:07:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T05:29:00.000-05:00

Mc is touting that he just launched a "new" ad cal...

2008-10-27T08:52:00.000-04:00

Mc is touting that he just launched a "new" ad called "Life Savings". Truth be told, that ad has aired here in OH for at least a week. Seems to be just a desperate attempt to get something into the news cycle other than Palin's clothes which, thanks to her going off message, continues to play.

heather,At least now I understand that the GOP emp...

2008-10-27T08:49:00.000-04:00

heather,

At least now I understand that the GOP emphasis is on the "insurance" part; not the "health" part. They view it much like auto insurance--pay for the crash but not the brake replacement. Fine, but we can't change bodies like we do cars.

Seems to me that one of the fundamental problems is the lack of proper preventative measures, like getting brakes fixed to avoid the costs of the multi-car collision. Right now, because of the crazy insurance schemes, I won't go for preventative care because, God forbid, if I get a prescription, I'm totally screwed if I have to get insurance again!!!

I know, I know, it's a short term fix to an immediate problem. A few bucks now to avert a big ticket item down the road but that down the road will roost with the insurance companies eventually, driving costs up across the board. It's just lunacy to me.

I can't see how covering the small costs in screening and wellness wouldn't ultimately lower costs . . . Again, just emphasizing the "health" part . .

@newsinohThe McCain health plan is completely ridi...

2008-10-27T08:39:00.000-04:00

@newsinoh
The McCain health plan is completely ridiculous. My father and brother have diabetes, and they would be out in the cold if not for employer health insurance. The risk pools would be diminished when his plan took effect, making it virtually impossible for them to get coverage.
The real problem here is that McCain treats health care just like any other service we purchase. Let the free market reign. This ignores the realities of the health care industry, which would seek to exclude the people who most need it.
I am not opposed to markets doing their thing with most industries, but health care should be an exception, otherwise only the healthy can afford the services.
The risk pools we enjoy in employer-based programs would be diminished if we allowed all the young and healthy to purchase from outside the system, leaving only the sick and old to be covered. It is a recipe for disaster, and would leave many people without.

Hi folks,I just read a WSJ article on Mc's health ...

2008-10-27T08:33:00.000-04:00

Hi folks,

I just read a WSJ article on Mc's health care plan. It may shock those who know my posts to learn that I was essentially undecided after the primaries. When I started looking at the candidates' policies, Mc's health care plan was the first of his ideas to push me away.

I always had employer coverage until recently when I learned the absurdities of getting individual coverage. If you haven't ever been down this road, let me forewarn you that you will be denied coverage if you've gotten ANY prescription filled in the last 2 years (other than antibiotic cream for a flesh wound) and/or if you are even 5 lbs "overweight", even if you engage in cardio and weight training regularly. I currently have a fairly expensive "ghetto" policy: covers nothing except losing my house in the event of catastrophe.

I couldn't imagine the wisdom of a policy that would force people into the insane private coverage market. The WSJ article explains it "perfectly" (the intentions of the policy are clear, although bone-headed IMHO):

Will the insurance that is purchased be a generous plan with first dollar coverage or low deductibles? It is much more likely to be a plan with higher deductibles that is more focused on providing true insurance against catastrophic losses rather than a more generous plan that includes a lot of prepayment for routine and predictable medical expenses. But this is precisely one of the objectives of the policy: to reduce the current tax bias that encourages people to funnel routine health expenses through insurance policies.

I wouldn't want to live in the US now, either. My...

2008-10-27T08:24:00.000-04:00

I wouldn't want to live in the US now, either. My job offer in Vienna was my exit plan in case of a McCain win. Now, I will go anyway, but know that my country might be ok after all. LOL

Vienna is a lovely city. I am looking forward to it.

Near London. Vienna is lovely mind. But am pretty ...

2008-10-27T08:19:00.000-04:00

Near London.

Vienna is lovely mind. But am pretty much 50/50 USAer and British now, still hold citizenship, still vote in US, but also have british citizenship. Would find moving back very very tough, though did live in Massachusetts for much of my childhood.

Where are you living at MarkyMark? I will move to...

2008-10-27T08:17:00.000-04:00

Where are you living at MarkyMark? I will move to Vienna in January.

heather, I think McCain always risked being tagged...

2008-10-27T08:16:00.000-04:00

heather,

I think McCain always risked being tagged as more of the same, and he didn't really have a veep to change that direction of the election. I think anyone but Palin would have been a more honorable choice, but was the huge polling collapse due to Palin or due to the economic fears around the banking crisis and the stock market collapsing? I think Palin has made the switch easier for some, more easy to excuse going against the war hero, but I don't think it cost McCain the election. It was McCain who closed his campaign down to deal with the crisis, a fortnight after it had begun, and then hardly hot footed it back to Washington.

"okay tracker out I know this will bring out all t...

2008-10-27T08:12:00.000-04:00

"okay tracker out I know this will bring out all the concern trolls today. no internals yet or the daily numbers but the topline numbers are 50-42"

Obama's Sunday number was a +5. His weekend numbers in this poll always seem to suck, then it goes back up over the course of the week.

@markymarkPoints well taken. Romney could have gi...

2008-10-27T08:11:00.000-04:00

@markymark
Points well taken. Romney could have given him the economic background he needed for the financial meltdown, but I truly believe some moderate Dems would have overlooked the socially conservative faults with Romney. They would at least have considered McCain/Romney because they would think that team might dig us out of the hole.
Lieberman would have given the finger to the hard-core neocons, but would have easily stripped off enough independents and moderate dems to keep it more competetive. The left would NEVER vote for Lieberman, as he is seen as a real Judas.
Ridge would have angered the base, but they would hold their nose and vote for him. Again, the "middle" would be in play.
In any case, revving up only the base (the Palin pick) was a tragic move for McCain. His strength was with the middle. He was bullied into pandering to the far right of the party, and that bankrupted the premise of the centrist, party-crossing guy that most Americans had come to at least respect, if not like.

I have to say, living abroad and being half Americ...

2008-10-27T08:07:00.000-04:00

I have to say, living abroad and being half American its thrilling to me that America is about to elect a smart guy, who is not afraid to show his brain off, as President.

I get it in the neck so often about Americans being dumb, and all that, and for once in my lifetime it feels, America is going to pick the intelligent guy ahead of the populist guy.

I am a lawyer, what struck me about the clip is ho...

2008-10-27T08:03:00.000-04:00

I am a lawyer, what struck me about the clip is how smart Obama is and how he understands the strngths and limitations of the different arms of the government. Bush does not even understand the constitution needs to be protected, or that the VP is part of the executive.

Obama is one smart dude.

heather, my answer to your question is quite compl...

2008-10-27T08:02:00.000-04:00

heather,

my answer to your question is quite complicated. I think it would have been more competitive with Romney next to McCain, but essentially the same undercurrent going on. (Both McCain and Romney after all are out of the Bush mould in some ways, and this election, in a lot of ways has been about being hte least like George W Bush).

As for Lieberman, I wonder if he even gets the nomination in the end. I wonder if McCain doesn't have a messy floor fight on his hands and the GOP gets torn apart or is open revolt to its candidate. In this case, we are talking about a far bigger drubbing for McCain.

Ridge is more complicated. I think he gets through the convention relatively unscathed, but what you end up with is a less enthused GOP, probably in the end a similar position to we are in right now.

I think the smartest move McCain could have made after the DNC was a floor fight for Vice President. Would have garnered some enthusiasm for the ticket from the party, would have countered some of the drama of the DNC, and would have taken some of the excitement from the Democratic Party. (In short done most of what the Palin pick did without lumbering McCain with a dud as VP)

fred said... "Looks like McCain's close is more fe...

2008-10-27T08:01:00.000-04:00

fred said...
"Looks like McCain's close is more fear. He is going after the redistribution of welath comment, but it seems that Obama talks about it in a very sane way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck

I am a rich white guy, and I am not worried, VOTE OBAMA!

This WILL resonate and must be answered by the BHO campaign..."

IF it resonates, then it will be answered. Bear in mind that it's a clip from 01, it's heavily cut/pasted and likely taken out of context in many parts. What I caught in it was a discussion of the civil rights movement and how legal the actions the Supreme Court took were and what extra steps they might have been able to take within the bounds of the law.

Obama needs to close with the economic/tax commerc...

2008-10-27T07:59:00.001-04:00

Obama needs to close with the economic/tax commercials.

If Obama takes his campaign to Arizona, it would t...

2008-10-27T07:59:00.000-04:00

If Obama takes his campaign to Arizona, it would tell the people of Arizona that he considers the State a vital part of the country. I say give them that respect, regardless of what the polls and the history dictate. We’ve already seen a President ignore at entire city (New Orleans) simply because of the racial/political demographic.

Obama may not turn a single vote in Arizona in 2008, but his visit may pry open a door for 2012. Hopefully his visit will be seen as an olive branch that will lead to future substantive dialog. Don’t concede Arizona, Mr. Obama, take your appeal to every corner of the country you hope to govern. We’re all Americans, and we need each other more than ever now. Take that step.

Christopher said... "My prediction: by election da...

2008-10-27T07:58:00.001-04:00

Christopher said...
"My prediction: by election day we'll be down from a +8 to a +5. Everyone will see this as a McCain Surge, but he'll still get routed in the electoral college. The simple fact is, Barack Obama is above 50 in almost all national polls with solid support. Unless something really crazy happens, he will be our next President.

He will win all the Kerry states and will almost certainly win Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia as well. I think there's a good chance he also peels away Florida and Ohio. North Carolina isn't far behind."

Add in Indiana, Georgia and North Dakota into the mix as well as probably a few others I'm not thinking of or will flip at the last minute. My only question is how close he comes to breaking 400 or perhaps how far past it he goes.

Looks like McCain's close is more fear. He is goi...

2008-10-27T07:58:00.000-04:00

Looks like McCain's close is more fear. He is going after the redistribution of welath comment, but it seems that Obama talks about it in a very sane way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck

I am a rich white guy, and I am not worried, VOTE OBAMA!

This WILL resonate and must be answered by the BHO campaign...

Heather Nordquist said... "Ask yourself this. If M...

2008-10-27T07:56:00.001-04:00

Heather Nordquist said...
"Ask yourself this. If McCain was running with Lieberman or Ridge or Romney, wouldn't this be a competitive race?"

Very competitive I think. Naturally they didn't excite the base, but then McCain shouldn't have needed to. He should have been able to trust to Obama to drive the right to him, just as Palin drove the left to Obama. He could have stuck on more of the experience and leadership, continued to show he was anything but a standard Bush following Republican and perhaps even had a campaign that included a plan somewhere.