Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/20

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2009-10-08T05:21:28.719-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:56:00.000-04:00

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Hi, PeteKent -Just to reply:"Obama very much needs...

2008-08-21T14:04:00.000-04:00

Hi, PeteKent -

Just to reply:
"Obama very much needs to bring his A game. He was barely in the US Senate for a year when he announced his candidacy and his resume before that was hardly overwhelming. He needs to do a lot of convincing before people will conclude that he is in fact ready to lead."

I agree he needs his A game to tilt the election to a decisive victory. If we're going to see-saw around the 50% mark, though, by three or four percent up or down, at this point I think Obama could do that with his eyes closed (I admit, he's seems to have been doing that). That's not to say he won't win, just he could keep going on this back and forth w/ McCain. For instance, today's "I don't know how many houses I have" punch at McCain. McCain's punch back with Ayers won't be effective (that's baked it) though maybe Glen-in-Colorado has some new ideas, the "brother in a shack" attack, for instance, might counter "I don't know how many homes I have."

It sounds like McCain's your man and that's not going to change. There's an equal number of Obamaphiles or Democrats who won't vote for McCain. We're not talking about either of those groups: we're talking about the 12% moveable middle.

The point is that the election is just going to get nastier and nastier. The middle could keep swinging around this three point range. Obama needs an A-game to trump that dynamic. As Nate points out, given the Republican brand, McCain won't likely trump it. So it could come down to a nasty, divisive election with the winner going to whomever throws the best punch last.

Nate - Could you also shed some light on some of t...

2008-08-21T12:08:00.000-04:00

Nate - Could you also shed some light on some of this year's curiousities?

Montana 2008 Projection 4.3% v 2004+20.5 as well as North Dakota

Minnesota 2008 Projection (-4.6%)inside of Wisconsin 2008 (-5.6) ... You've linked ... Minnesota, Washington and Colorado (I would add Oregon-Portland and Montana-Bozeman to that list) Their movements against 2004 and each other are interesting.

Virginia's 6 point projected blueing

Alaska's 19 point fade.

I tend to think that Obama's race is actually a net plus in the tolerant Western US, I haven't seen anything on that. Obama's Western strength could be anti-washington change, high education levels and youth. But I think, curiously, the very white West sees a cathartic good for America in electing a monority president.

Michael states,"Nate, I hope you're working on a s...

2008-08-21T11:24:00.000-04:00

Michael states,
"Nate, I hope you're working on a sound way to incorporate these things, and also vote fraud and voter suppression (e.g., in Florida - how many points should you take off Obama's eventual total there?) into your model. I'm sure you agree that any data that could improve your ability to predict the outcome should be incorporated to whatever degree is necessary to increase the accuracy of your model. "

I think this is the big source of error in Nate's awesome work. I think Nate himself clearly states this. The trouble is finding ways to objectively measure these things.

One good thing I would suggest to Nate is to look at early voting in states with established systems and track the party line splits and magnitude against 2004.

#1 Tipper Colorado has a long established system of early and mail in voting that is used heavily. It begins Oct 20 - so on October 20, John McCain will be one vote up on Obama in Colorado ;-)

But I hope Nate can look at these say in the 12ish states broadly in play.

@ DarioDario: L Lawson, i´m not american and under...

2008-08-21T10:58:00.000-04:00

@ Dario

Dario: L Lawson, i´m not american and understand your comment very anti-american.

You can criticize your country without being unpatriotic. That you can't is the basest right-wing attack that has shackled this country and prevented it from improving multiple times over our history.

Thanks for pushing that smear again, Dario!

Right on the money Glenn in Co!

2008-08-21T10:26:00.000-04:00

Right on the money Glenn in Co!

How did Zogby come up with a 5 point lead for McCa...

2008-08-21T10:21:00.000-04:00

How did Zogby come up with a 5 point lead for McCain? Any suggetstions? He is going to be on Washington Times dot com at 12:00, today. There are at least 5 questions that I want to hear from him on this!!

Palympset's thoughtful post states,"McCain could c...

2008-08-21T10:18:00.000-04:00

Palympset's thoughtful post states,

"McCain could come up with another wholly original angle of attack and Obama's numbers could sink again. But my theory is that once one of these attacks is spent, the numbers related to that attack get pretty much baked in. So the Rev. Wright, Ayers, Celebrity, scary-Islamic terrorist, Tax-And-Spend attacks are all pretty well baked into the numbers now. McCain needs something new that will stick if he wants to tip the election decisively in his favor."

I think what's next are several attacks having their language refined and tested in the right-wing media sphere.

1) I expect an attack outing Obama's radical positions on abortion. His voting record in the Illinois senate and the stories about his defence of arbortion stances that even NARAL went neutral on is trouble for Obama.

2) I think this story of his half brother living on a $1 a month in a shack in Kenya will get hit. My 14 year old uses babysitting money to sponsor a child through Compassion International ... why couldn't Obama spare $30 bucks a month and maybe a gift and card at Christmas?

3) I expect the energy attacks to continue especially when Pelosi and crew return.

4) Anyone coming out of the Illinois legislature probably needs a shower. Illinois' government is full of corruption (for both parties). I expect more stories on Tony Resco and others which didn't make your list.

5) Lack of experience - This hit angle hasn't been played fully. What exactly was his work as a community organizer? What did he accomplish in the Illinois legislature ... is Obama nothing more than a handsome guy with great gift for oratory?

6) Taxes, Taxes, Taxes ... I don't care how Obama tries to spin it - raising taxes in this economy is trouble.

7) Leftist - I think GOPers will start using the term liberal (as reasonable to lable Hillary and the DLC and Leftists to label Obama. I won't be surprised to see his senate voting juxaposed to Senator Sanders, a socialist.

8) I think the Ayes, Wright connections get played hard through Nov 4. I'm not quite sure I agree that thet're baked into the numbers fully. A lot of voters don;t tune in much at all till the end.

Sorry, Palypset, but I have to disagree with you. ...

2008-08-21T10:13:00.000-04:00

Sorry, Palypset, but I have to disagree with you. Particularly these statements:

"Obama doesn't even need to bring his A game: just be awake and not on vacation and he could probably recover his 3 point margin (if Kerry could do it, Obama certainly could). If he can't, that means, as Humanist says, the dip is permanent and those voters are lost: very serious indeed. But if Kerry could recover, I think Obama can.

Then again, McCain could come up with another wholly original angle of attack and Obama's numbers could sink again. But my theory is that once one of these attacks is spent, the numbers related to that attack get pretty much baked in. So the Rev. Wright, Ayers, Celebrity, scary-Islamic terrorist, Tax-And-Spend attacks are all pretty well baked into the numbers now. McCain needs something new that will stick if he wants to tip the election decisively in his favor."

Obama very much needs to bring his A game. He was barely in the US Senate for a year when he announced his candidacy and his resume before that was hardly overwhelming. He needs to do a lot of convincing before people will conclude that he is in fact ready to lead.

Mrs. Clinton could not make that argument because she was at best Mamie Eisenhower on steroids. She too was not quite ready to lead as her Bosnia under fire fib showed.

McCain is a very different candidate than Obama's primary opponent.

Also, what has been going on in terms of defining Obama has thus far been subliminal and is far from having reached its saturation or penetration point.

It only gets worse from here for Obama in terms of how he will be portrayed.

McCain too will continue to make the positive case for his candidacy built upon his personal history of courage and leadership qualities. He is all about energy independence as a national security issue and fiscal discipline in a low tax environment. Plus he was right about the Surge and the revisionist thinking on Iraq has taken hold and taken away Obama's seminal issue.

That speech in 2004 ain't worth squat in the present environment.

Instead of just looking at a snapshot (today the r...

2008-08-21T09:31:00.000-04:00

Instead of just looking at a snapshot (today the race is tied) I'd like to look at the long-term trend here and see what we find.

Humanist has the major point here: can Obama rekindle "Obama energy" with the convention? If not, that rebound possibility has been seriously subdued.

If you look at what happened to Kerry, the intense "Swift Boat" attacks and Corsi book happened after the conventions; this is when his numbers sank. He delayed in any kind of response but just before the convention his numbers started rising again - though not enough to win, they were enough to make it look like he was going to.

Obama is taking this same kind of hit right now (an August of pounding and Corsi) while being overseas and on vacation...that's caused a dip in the numbers but really, just a small dip compared with Kerry (enough to erase his small lead).

The trend question is what will happen next? We have two and a half months till the election so plenty of time for dramatic swings.

Obama doesn't even need to bring his A game: just be awake and not on vacation and he could probably recover his 3 point margin (if Kerry could do it, Obama certainly could). If he can't, that means, as Humanist says, the dip is permanent and those voters are lost: very serious indeed. But if Kerry could recover, I think Obama can.

Then again, McCain could come up with another wholly original angle of attack and Obama's numbers could sink again. But my theory is that once one of these attacks is spent, the numbers related to that attack get pretty much baked in. So the Rev. Wright, Ayers, Celebrity, scary-Islamic terrorist, Tax-And-Spend attacks are all pretty well baked into the numbers now. McCain needs something new that will stick if he wants to tip the election decisively in his favor.

And Obama hasn't really unleashed any McCain attacks yet: and the buzz is, he will. How about canvassing Evengelicals with all of McCain's "agents of interlerance" quotes and portraying him as a "say anything to get elected" dude in order to depress his base again? So it's possible this campaign could get ugly and we just keep seeing these kinds of three-point swings around the middle going into the convention as the candidates punch and counter-punch.

This kind of sparring could keep going on till the convention with whoever wins being the candidate who lands the best body blow about a week before election day sending the news cycle and poll numbers moving in their direction. It's certainly a sorry way to elect a President (and determine the make-up of the Supreme Court) but it seems this is what our democracy has devolved into.

OTF. Yes I look at cross tabs on every poll. The...

2008-08-21T09:25:00.000-04:00

OTF. Yes I look at cross tabs on every poll. The numbers in IN were a correction from the last poll being weighted way to heavy in independents and dems. Thanks for trying to help me be as smart as you but I prefer just being smarter than you.

Obama is in bigger trouble than we thought:The AP ...

2008-08-21T09:03:00.000-04:00

Obama is in bigger trouble than we thought:

The AP reports -

"The Illinois Democrat raised more than $50 million in July, a slight dip from the previous month, according to his monthly financial report, filed around midnight Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission. He spent about $55 million, with three-fifths of that devoted to media costs.

McCain had his best fundraising month yet, collecting more than $26 million. He, too, spent heavily — a total of $32 million, of which two-thirds was on advertising."

Obama spent 72% more than McCain, $33 million on media alone. More spent on media tha McCain spent in total and he has slipped this much!?!?!

The race is tied now. It is tied because the key b...

2008-08-21T07:49:00.000-04:00

The race is tied now. It is tied because the key battlegrounds are tied. Yes, one could say that Ohio leans McCain, but Obama has the advantage that he can choose "the one bullet that breaks the armor", Nevada, Florida, Virginia, Ohio or Colorado. They all are leaning McCain at the moment, mostly because of the national trend - the polls are in the majority within margin of error.

Sadly, Obama couldn´t hold on to his advantage he built up in the months of May and June, a time when he battled McCain more than he battled Clinton. Obama still has a long-term advantage in the number of registered Democrats and his organization efforts. But he must become more vocal, more to the point. The difference between going unfairly negative and legtimiate attacks are ... facts. Obama isn´t a muslim, that´s a fact - McCain confirmed the liberal supreme court justices he said he would not have confirmed, that´s a fact, too... and so it goes on.
Obama was too passive in the last months, maybe because he wanted to stay "above" it, but the Republicans will not allow it. He could have gone into the "real" election season with an advantage, now it´s gone.

Try to imagine that Bush hadn't started this war. ...

2008-08-21T06:24:00.000-04:00

Try to imagine that Bush hadn't started this war. Maybe that alone can pierce your predermined oppositon and negativity.

James, are you actually for real? Your response to Cugel's cogent short analysis of the Iraq situation is "Well, what if Bush hadn't invaded Iraq, huh? Well what do you say then, huh?"

It might be nice to play with counterfactuals, but when it comes to actual policy I prefer the real world.

I think there is more to these polls than meets th...

2008-08-21T05:32:00.000-04:00

I think there is more to these polls than meets the eye. The polls that were taken before Obama hit the campaign trail again (18 August) show McCain improving markedly. But the polls taken more recently will I suspect show Obama regaining his lead. The latest CBS and NBC polls give Obama a 3 point lead and the trackers also continue to show Obama with a small lead.

Let's see how the state polls develop over the next few days. Rasmussen was smart to rush out his polls before Obama hit the trail again and it doesn't surprise me in the least that his polls show McCain with small leads in Ohio and Florida and closing in other states. Yes, the race is a toss up right now but that is going to change dramatically with each day's news cycle. Watch and learn

Woooooo! McCain, I love you mwa mwa mwa! Sexy litt...

2008-08-21T03:24:00.000-04:00

Woooooo! McCain, I love you mwa mwa mwa! Sexy little bitch of a win percentage!

John Nail said..." If we solidify next week and HR...

2008-08-21T03:21:00.000-04:00

John Nail said...
" If we solidify next week and HRC and Bubba come thru then this is game over."

Why does Barack need them to drag his sorry ass over the finish line?

Is the "it's all Hillary's fault" crowd already piping up now that it's dawning on them Obama's gonna lose

As a North Carolinian, I find the chance that Obam...

2008-08-21T03:05:00.000-04:00

As a North Carolinian, I find the chance that Obama is pulling close here compelling. He has outspent here in ads and ground game. In fact the TV spots are so commonplace here that I've seen them aired with the local news every night for weeks now. The only McCain ads I've seen are from the "free media." In fact, Obama even had a surprise visit in Greensboro today and it generated a lot of press. He is also putting field offices in towns that have never had them before. His GOTV here is going to be excellent. Given this plus the demographic shifts in the state (similar to North Va but with a large addition of an ever growing hispanic voting block). The fact that Dems have dominated our state government makes me think a slight victory is possible. If he wins NC, I predict a win in Va, too.

As for the larger picture, the media made it a horse race, Republicans will vote for McCain out of fear, and the Conventions and debates will change everything. Getting all the Dems under the same tent is necessary, Hillary has to deliver like a true political professional and hopefully the Obama team is going to use these speeches to remind voters why the Republican brand is wrong and McCain is been there with them every step of the way. Obama must also use this time to educate the public about his tax policies vs. McCain. THIS IS HIS TRUMP CARD. How much money will average Americans leave on the table in order to vote for the 2nd coming of Herbert Hoover???? I also think the VP pick is of little consequence, except for the fact that that Obama gets a two-headed message machine one week earlier than McCain. I also believe McCain's message machine is more likely to trip up with the addition because their candidate can never stay on message and contradictions are likely to resurface with two pompous wind bags running around the country as character ASSASSins.

Besides the outcome being close helps GOTV big time.

The "ground game" etc. well I've heard it all befo...

2008-08-21T03:00:00.000-04:00

The "ground game" etc. well I've heard it all before in past elections with the "youth vote" and the "hip hop vote" and they don't vote on Election Day. Several times bitten twice shy. I'm still voting for Obama but it looks like another Dem choke job unless he brings someone with balls (Hillary) on to the ticket to fight McCain.

Obama is not going to win the debates he's going to be using words like "jurisprudence" "ubiquitous" and "omnipresent" and the grumpy old man is going to be talking to "his friends".