Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Whigs, Federalists Strongly Differ on Support for ...

I think it is fascinating that the two presidents ...

2009-04-07T16:50:38.036-04:00

I think it is fascinating that the two presidents who have the highest approval from the opposing party are Nixon and Carter. What does that say about the judgment of Americans a few weeks into a presidency?

But one day this recession — despite President Oba...

2009-04-07T12:28:02.005-04:00

But one day this recession — despite President Obama's best efforts — will end and things will begin to look up again. Then we can expect all of this money to come out of its parking space and get back on the highway of commerce.

All at once. The inevitable result will be double-digit hyperinflation.

I hope I'm wrong, but it's coming.

Certainly a good point but let us not forget the smoking crater that is the stock and housing market. :) Yeah, we are in for a rough ride for a while trying to reduce the oscillations.

Where is that parked money looking to go? It would be great if it went into goods and services, even if that drove prices up some. Because that means where it is not going, not that inflation is good but everything is fucked up right now and the kinks have to be worked out. My biggest worry is not consumer inflation. My biggest worry is "investment inflation", AKA another speculation bubble that'll continue the cycle we've been in.

@Dwight:In the last xix months, according to the F...

2009-04-07T11:01:22.660-04:00

@Dwight:

In the last xix months, according to the Federal Reserve Board, the money supply in the United States has increased by 271 percent. It has almost tripled.

Have car sales tripled? Home purchases? Consumer spending? Corporate investment?

Not only have they not tripled, they have all declined more sharply than they have since at least the recession of 1981-82, and perhaps since the Great Depression.

So where is the money? If it isn't being spent, where is it?

It is being parked away. Consumers are using it to pay down their credit card balances, pay off their mortgages, reduce their student loans, make the payments on the car sitting in their driveway — not the one in the dealer's lot. Businesspeople are buying T-bills, investing the money and saving it. They aren’t spending, either.

But one day this recession — despite President Obama's best efforts — will end and things will begin to look up again. Then we can expect all of this money to come out of its parking space and get back on the highway of commerce.

All at once. The inevitable result will be double-digit hyperinflation.

I hope I'm wrong, but it's coming.

Excellent points, Mike in Maryland. Whether it's t...

2009-04-07T10:13:06.243-04:00

Excellent points, Mike in Maryland. Whether it's the primary threat, or simply the high visibility of Limbaugh, I think Republicans are overestimating how much their Base can do for them.

Then again, what else do they have? Without the Base, they are left to woo moderates who have already abandoned them.

It will be well into Obama's term before super dup...

2009-04-07T09:52:12.667-04:00

It will be well into Obama's term before super duper, hyperinflation will begin to take root. It has to. When you add the amount of money to the money supply that we will and have by simply printing it, there has to be inflation.

No GROG, it doesn't have to be super duper, hyperinflation. At least at this point the decisions haven't been made yet to set that in stone. Though they have stated they are going to be printing a Trillion $, that's going to roll out over time. The really low interest rates as well would contribute. But it isn't there yet. Right now there is so much deflationary pressure that this is being countered.

So yes, there will be some inflation. That was always in the cards. Always. The decisions that are going to set how high it is haven't been made yet. The decision of when the government is going to yank back on the reigns.

P.S. As has been pointed out, if it really does go to "hyperinflation" (and what that term actually means is pretty subjective) then it's going to seriously hurt Obama's chances. Of course he needs a viable opponent. Four years is a pretty short time for the non-hardcore to forget Bush. So it'll have to be someone that really is different in a clear and demonstrable way. Right now the Republican message coming out is quite clearly as "what we were doing before". If the economy is still in the crapper and inflation hasn't turned and headed down already and the R candidate can't get the separation from Bush policies I'm going to guess that it is a toss-up. *shrug*

Mike in Maryland: Blah blah blah "Lush" blah blah ...

2009-04-07T05:49:05.552-04:00

Mike in Maryland: Blah blah blah "Lush" blah blah blah "RepubliCANT" blah blah blah other stuff I didn't read because when you peg your level of discourse at grade-school namecalling the odds that the rest of your post will contain anything worthwhile are extremely small.

Raise your game, man.

Regarding the 'knee-capping' of Lush Rimbaugh, I d...

2009-04-07T00:14:15.748-04:00

Regarding the 'knee-capping' of Lush Rimbaugh, I don't think it was White House intention to take Lush down, but to drive a wedge between him and his supporters from the rest of the RepubliCANT Party.

What I think the White House didn't expect was the falling on their swords of the (especially the Congressional) leadership of the RepubliCANT Party.

Lush has a very vocal, but (relatively) small backing. If the ratings are to be believed, there may be 5-7 million listeners per week, and presuming each of those listeners is counted only one time/week (doubtful), and presuming that only true Lush backers are the only listeners (also doubtful, as many listen for the 'entertainment value'), and presuming that for each listener there is also a Lush backer who is not a regular listener, we get a total of 10-15 million people who might be called his 'backers' (or 'his posse').

Impressive?

Yes, and no.

10 - 15 million IS a large number.

15 million is 5% of the total American population.

The White House did a very good job of holding Lush up to the spotlight, and allowing Lush himself to show how much of a bizarro world he occupies. Of course his 5 to 15 fellow bizarro world co-inhabitors like the spotlight. At the same time, the 285 to 295 million people who do NOT back Lush got a good glimpse of that bizarro world, and are not liking it to completely rejecting it.

I think what the White House didn't expect was the way the RepubliCANT leadership fell on their swords to back Lush. The RepubliCANT leadership didn't separate themselves from Lush's bizarro world. The general population is now beginning to perceive that the RepubliCANT leadership is part of Lush's bizarro world, they don't like it, and are now questioning whether they can support someone who is a supporter of Lush's bizarro world.

Although subtle, and now long term, I think the 'knee-capping' strategy is paying off far greater benefits than the White House originally foresaw. And maybe the above helps explain some of the low RepubliCANT identification numbers.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

"Obama is just following in Bush's footsteps"Well,...

2009-04-06T23:36:20.335-04:00

"Obama is just following in Bush's footsteps"

Well, he's not threatening to start any wars on flimsy pretenses, and he's not setting up secret prisons, and he's not trying to do an end-run around basic human rights by detaining people indefinitely and splitting hairs about the definition of torture, and all of that is change I can damn well believe in.

Very few people understood the magnitude of the pr...

2009-04-06T23:35:58.387-04:00

Very few people understood the magnitude of the problem, least of all those in the Bush white house.

But of course, like everything else Bush, it must have been someone else's fault, preferably hated democratic politicians or institutions. Sad.

Saint Dude:Where were all the Democrats standing u...

2009-04-06T21:44:35.631-04:00

Saint Dude:

Where were all the Democrats standing up to the irresponsible lending practices? Aren't they supposed to stand up for the people?

I would totally get a statistics boner from compar...

2009-04-06T21:38:17.045-04:00

I would totally get a statistics boner from comparing the ditribution of people on the political compass (fiscal vs. social stance) with their respective Obama approval ratings, but that would require an entirely different kind of poll.

@Grog - the statistical techniques used by Nate can be found in an undergrad statistics textbook, and all of the charts/analyses can be easily implemented in R, a free program. Do the research and start your own blog - if your analysis is rigorous and interesting, discussing inflation and the G20, I guarantee you I will read it, and so will a lot of readers here.

But you're not interested in stimulating a discussion, or to enhance communication between "your side" and "their side," or to further the understanding of statistical trends underlying socio-political dynamics. Your interest is solely antagonistic (this is true of a lot of the people you're talking with as well) which is implicit in the language you are using.

If you want a genuine discussion on these policies, start one. Armed with facts and sound logic instead of hyperbole and rhetoric. Don't throw out misleading and loaded terms like "out of control" and "irresponsible," unless they are preceded by, embedded within, or preface a serious discussion.

Oh, and no, I don't put a lot of credence in the b...

2009-04-06T20:54:10.461-04:00

Oh, and no, I don't put a lot of credence in the boon doggle that Fannie and Freddie are the ones responsible for "loose lending standards".

This is not a matter of "fessing up". I have no particular interest in the aforementioned institutions. But they are not the ones that lowered the lending standards, invented a whole host of new and exotic mortgages, allowed for >100% financing, made allowances for brokers to secure loans based on fraudulent information, or came up with schemes to securitize said loans to sell them off to unsuspecting third parties. Nor where they responsible for regulating this whole process.

Except that if you read the actual poll instead of...

2009-04-06T20:46:09.648-04:00

Except that if you read the actual poll instead of the summary, you will see that the actual number of respondents supporting higher taxes on the wealthy even if it could potentially damage the economy is 51% (a slim majority).

As for the poll being self evident, I am not so sure. After all republicans have had a lot of success over the years convincing people to bestow tax cuts on the wealthy. Now a majority is starting to rethink this proposition and turn it on its head.

PorridgeGun:Mr. Obama’s push to increase income ta...

2009-04-06T20:00:48.131-04:00

PorridgeGun:

Mr. Obama’s push to increase income taxes on people making over $250,000 a year is supported by 74 percent of respondents. When presented with the possibility that taxing those in the higher income bracket might hurt the economy, 39 percent of those polled still support the plan.

Of course. You don't need a poll for that. It's called class warfare. Nobody likes anyone who has more money than they do.

I suspect it's largely driven by the increasing as...

2009-04-06T19:52:52.138-04:00

I suspect it's largely driven by the increasing association between a president and his party. The more closely they're identified, the more a party affiliation poll becomes tantamount to an approval poll.

Speaking of bullshit gun nuts,it turns out that Ri...

2009-04-06T19:41:33.526-04:00

Speaking of bullshit gun nuts,it turns out that Richard Poplawski,the killer of the three cops on Pittsburgh,is a racist/anti-semite who posted hate -filled diatribes on racist websites:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09096/960938-100.stm

Barney Frank...sorry.

2009-04-06T19:40:54.344-04:00

Barney Frank...sorry.

Saint Dude:"Are any of you going to fess up to the...

2009-04-06T19:39:03.985-04:00

Saint Dude:
"Are any of you going to fess up to the fact that our current massive deficit is due almost entirely to republican tax cut policies (all of which were supposed to magically pay for themselves). Are you going to acknowledge that the current economic crisis is the product of lax regulation and oversight during the last republican administration?"

Are you going to acknowledge that the current economic crisis is the product of lax lending brought on by the crooks, Barney Franks and Chris Dodd, at Fannie and Freddie?

I'll fess up to this:

- Bush expanded the federal budget by $700 billion through 2008. President Obama will add another $1trillion.
-Bush began a string of expensive financial bailouts. President Obama is accelerating that course.
-President Bush increased federal education spending 58 percent faster than inflation. President Obama would double it.
-President Bush became the first President to spend 3 percent of GDP on federal antipoverty programs. President Obama has already increased this spending by 20 percent.
-Bush presided over a $2.5 trillion increase in the public debt through 2008. Setting aside 2009 (for which Obama is responsbile for an additional $2.6 trillion in public debt), President Obama’s budget would add $4.9 trillion in public debt from the beginning of 2010 through 2016.

Obama is just following in Bush's footsteps, only worse, but no one wants to talk about it.

If we're so worried about hyperinflation, let's ta...

2009-04-06T19:37:17.281-04:00

If we're so worried about hyperinflation, let's take a look at the aftermath of the most explosive growth in government spending in US history--the 200% GNP experienced in 1945 during WWII.

When the post-spending inflation hit, in the late '40s, it never got to 20% annually, and it was quickly brought under control. (My parents built a house in 1950 with a 3% mortgage).

So it's hard to see that the screaming about uncontrolled inflation (see GROG above) is any more than another whining point the GOP is using to try and undermine the president.

New York Times/CBS News poll: New Optimism on Econ...

2009-04-06T19:34:32.773-04:00

New York Times/CBS News poll: New Optimism on Economy Since Inauguration, Republican Party drops to lowest favorability in 25 years

Americans have grown more optimistic about the economy and the direction of the country in the 11 weeks since President Obama was inaugurated, suggesting that Mr. Obama is enjoying some success in his critical task of rebuilding the nation’s confidence, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

These sometimes turbulent weeks — marked by new initiatives by Mr. Obama, attacks by Republicans and more than a few missteps by the White House — do not appear to have hurt the president. Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, Iraq and Afghanistan; fully two-thirds said they approve of his overall job performance.

By contrast, Republican fortunes have dropped in the first weeks of the Obama presidency; just 31 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the Republican Party, the lowest in the 25 years the question has been asked in New York Times/CBS News polls.

It is not unusual for new presidents to enjoy a period of public support. Still, the durability of Mr. Obama’s support contrasts with that of some other new presidents, and is striking at a time when anxiety has gripped households across the country and Mr. Obama has alternately sought to rally Americans’ spirits and warn against economic collapse as he seeks Congressional support for his programs.

The number of people who think the country is heading in the right direction has jumped from 15 percent in mid-January, just before Mr. Obama took office, to 39 percent today, while the number who think it is heading in the wrong direction has dropped from 79 to 53 percent. That is the highest percentage of Americans who said the country is heading in the right direction since February of 2005, the second month of the second term of former President George W. Bush.

The percentage of people who think the economy is getting worse has declined from 54 percent just before Mr. Obama took office to 34 percent today. At the same time, 20 percent now think the economy is getting better, compared with 7 percent in mid-January.

“It’s psychology more than anything else,” Arthur Gilman, a Republican from Ridgewood, N.J., said in a follow-up interview after participating in the Times/CBS News Poll. “President Obama has turned around the negative feeling in this country. He’s given everything an impetus because he’s very upbeat, like Roosevelt was. It’s too soon to tell if the spending stuff works but some things have improved.”

Frank Henwood, an independent from Amarillo, Texas, said: “Hopefully, the stock market has bottomed out and is on the rise. Once the stock market shapes up, I think the economy will come back and then jobs will come back and people will start buying automobiles made in America.”

With the poll finding that an overwhelming number think the recession will last a year or more, Mr. Obama may find he has an unusually deep well of patience to draw on. The poll found that Mr. Obama shoulders virtually none of the public blame for the economic crisis: 33 percent blame Mr. Bush, 21 percent blame financial institutions, and 11 percent blame Congress.

By a margin of 63 to 20, voters said they trusted Mr. Obama more than they trust Congressional Republicans to make the right decision about the nation’s economy. And by a margin 61 to 27, they said they trusted Mr. Obama to keep the nation safe, typically a Republican strong-suit, the poll found. Nearly one-quarter of Republicans said that they trusted Mr. Obama more than Congressional Republicans to make the right decisions about the economy.

“As far as acting like adults and getting things done, the Democratic Party has done better,” said Rachel Beeson, an independent voter from Hawaii. “The Republican Party seems to have decided that they are going to turn down anything that comes out of the White House and nothing will get done that way. “

The poll suggested evidence of continued political division: 57 percent of people who said they voted for John McCain last November said they disapproved of Mr. Obama’s performance. While Mr. Obama’s budget proposal enjoys the support of 56 percent of Americans overall, sentiments splinter along party lines: 79 percent of Democrats said Mr. Obama’s budget had the right priorities, compared with 27 percent of Republicans.

The survey was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, while Mr. Obama was traveling through Europe to attend the Group of 20 summit of the world’s largest economies. Two-thirds of respondents said that leaders of other countries around the world have respect for Mr. Obama; when a similar question was asked in July 2006, 30 percent of respondents said foreign leaders had respect for Mr. Bush.

At a time where there is evidence of a surge of populism among many Americans in response to abuses on Wall Street, respondents by more than a two-to-one margin said that Democrats care more about the needs of people like themselves than Republicans do. Seventy-one percent of Americans said Mr. Obama cared more about the interests of ordinary people than about large corporations.

Mr. Obama’s push to increase income taxes on people making over $250,000 a year is supported by 74 percent of respondents. When presented with the possibility that taxing those in the higher income bracket might hurt the economy, 39 percent of those polled still support the plan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/us/politics/07poll.html?_r=1&hp

Smoking Aces- Here is the second amendment - where...

2009-04-06T19:18:04.272-04:00

Smoking Aces-

Here is the second amendment - where does it say any fucked up asshole who is insane can own guns? Are you part of a militia?

"Amendment II

A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed. "

Smaoking Aces-If the second amendment is read broa...

2009-04-06T19:15:23.474-04:00

Smaoking Aces-

If the second amendment is read broadly and allows any shithead not part of the national guard to take up arms, then most certainly the equal protection clause allows gay marriage, and the privacy clause allows abortion.

Yes, that is a good way to read the Constitution. Since you read the 2nd amendment broadly you will clearly do so for the rest of the document, right?

What about the all-important Know-Nothing vote?

2009-04-06T19:00:46.965-04:00

What about the all-important Know-Nothing vote?

Smoking Aces,Sounds like you think the second amen...

2009-04-06T18:53:16.200-04:00

Smoking Aces,

Sounds like you think the second amendment guarantees the right to take up arms against the government of the United States.

Bizarre indeed.

Grog,You and your conservative brethren sure do lo...

2009-04-06T18:41:04.177-04:00

Grog,

You and your conservative brethren sure do love to talk about the hypothetical and to predict the end of the world.

Are any of you going to fess up to the fact that our current massive deficit is due almost entirely to republican tax cut policies (all of which were supposed to magically pay for themselves). Are you going to acknowledge that the current economic crisis is the product of lax regulation and oversight during the last republican administration?

Do you actually believe the nonsensical proposition that we should let the banks fail (and don't think it would just be the sick ones), and cut back on government spending during the most major recession in the last 80 years?

As for hyper-inflation? It is not going to happen. Regardless of your hyper-inflated fear mongering.