Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Ready for the Next Mini-Maelstrom?

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2009-10-08T07:21:50.088-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:30:27.197-04:00

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2009-03-11T21:57:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T21:57:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T01:52:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T22:13:00.000-05:00

Why is this even here? We're so hard up for non-n...

2008-07-19T19:00:00.000-04:00

Why is this even here? We're so hard up for non-news?

It's amazing to me that no other blog or website o...

2008-07-19T00:28:00.000-04:00

It's amazing to me that no other blog or website or cable channel picked up the Rather "misspeak". Did I miss something? Did NO ONE notice this? I think it's odd.

my dislike for him on foreign policy began way bac...

2008-07-18T22:56:00.000-04:00

my dislike for him on foreign policy began way back in Oct 17, 2001. He was tirading about not liking security checkpoints to enter buildings and airports that day.

Typical shallowness of Obama's detractors, twisting his caution about reactionary haste and excess into a negative.

Honestly, this is not a big deal and I doubt anyon...

2008-07-18T22:32:00.001-04:00

Honestly, this is not a big deal and I doubt anyone (except 538.com and other blogs) will be harping on it.

Well, it does take a certain amount of intelligence to understand what's significant about it.

Nate:Undeniable proof in the thread here ... of wh...

2008-07-18T22:32:00.000-04:00

Nate:

Undeniable proof in the thread here ... of what I said earlier . . .

~JQP~

@ Embedded in the Noise

let's face it, the names are easy to mix up.It's e...

2008-07-18T22:30:00.000-04:00

let's face it, the names are easy to mix up.

It's easier to mix up "John McCain" with "Elton John" than it is to mix up "Barack Obama" with "Osama bin Laden".

Perhaps this notion that they're easy to mix up is behind the claim that those who were upset by the New Yorker article lack a sense of humor -- because after all, it's easy to confuse mocking right wing nutcases with mocking the Obamas. What? What's he talking about?? See, if that really was mockery of the right wing nutcases, then it would be they who lacked a sense of humor about it, not Obama and his supporters. But over and over again the cretins and propagandists who berated people for getting upset about this failed to make the distinction as to who was really being mocked.

Judas Priest writes:That extra decimal place whose...

2008-07-18T19:49:00.000-04:00

Judas Priest writes:

That extra decimal place whose disappearance so upsets you does not represent lost information. It is rather the elimination of noise.

What you say may be true ... or it may not. Nate posted the Win % to three decimals for quite some time and then dropped it when he gave the 'site a facelift. You're pointing out a question of accuracy vs. precision. I noticed that we had lost some precision, but I have no idea how much accuracy his model allows for.

As I said, you may be right. It may even be that it's only accurate to one decimal place and the '3' in the 43% note is noise. I'd be interested in hearing what Nate says about the sturdiness of his projections.

Honestly, this is not a big deal and I doubt anyon...

2008-07-18T18:55:00.000-04:00

Honestly, this is not a big deal and I doubt anyone (except 538.com and other blogs) will be harping on it.

Anonymous and Higglytown:Thanks for the content-la...

2008-07-18T17:42:00.000-04:00

Anonymous and Higglytown:

Thanks for the content-laden analysis of Michigan.

Anonymous, please don't take me for someone with a partisan line on criticizing election predictions. I'm just as critical of predictions in Obama's favor as in McCain's favor, if the way I read the posts is that those predictions are based on hopes or fears, rather than something more tangible such as the data you just supplied.

Furthermore Higgly, it's been around 50 years sinc...

2008-07-18T17:38:00.000-04:00

Furthermore Higgly, it's been around 50 years since the City of Detroit had over 1.8MM citizens, not 15-20.

1940 1,623,452 3.5%
1950 1,849,568 13.9%
1960 1,670,144 −9.7%
1970 1,514,063 −9.3%
1980 1,203,368 −20.5%
1990 1,027,974 −14.6%
2000 951,270 −7.5%
Est. 2007 916,952 −3.6%

Higgly:2007 Census estimates put the population of...

2008-07-18T17:31:00.000-04:00

Higgly:
2007 Census estimates put the population of the City of Detroit at 916,952 and the Detroit-Warren-Flint, CSA at 5,405,918.

Detroit has suffered population decline, but not nearly to the extent you've outlined.

"I think it may have helped him in some areas as h...

2008-07-18T17:30:00.000-04:00

"I think it may have helped him in some areas as he has since gained in some red states and even is ahead of McCain in AZ according to the latest Zogby poll."

Those polls are garbage - the only way McCain will lose Arizona is if he hits a baby on national TV, or something equally ridiculous.

(He's not losing Arizona).

That said, your basic premise has some merit. However, the broader backdrop of this race is that everything is tightening. The same positions that hurt Obama in blue states where he can afford it are helping him in red states - or so he hopes.

"Pete Kent said...That could be. But if that is true it should happen proportionately in the battleground states (absent some other explanation), in which case we should see them tip as well.

Could it be that liberal voters in VA and OH feel their vote is more important to the outcome so they cannot waste it on protest votes like they can afford to do in CA and NY."

I believe that that is in fact the case. You'll see typical Democratic margins in the solid blue states and typical Republican margins in the solid red states barring landslides on either side, because the disaffected voters will eventually 'come home' unless one of the candidates does something that really ticks them off/encourages them. And I don't think either McCain or Obama is pulling a cure for AIDS out of their pocket anytime soon.

Recall that this was a thread dealing with a gaffe...

2008-07-18T17:06:00.000-04:00

Recall that this was a thread dealing with a gaffe. I took it as opening to discuss general trends in the election and my hypothesis as to why the polls have been moving McCain's way.

As I said before, we are here to predict the outcome of the election. Polls are one means of prediction and they are informed by the issues.

As it stands I believe my analysis of the state of the race is as cogent, if not more so, than any that has been offered here.

The most interesting assmessment offered here explaining the state of the polls was the one suggesting that the movement in the national polls was caused by diasaffected democrats in the big states melting away from Obama, not enough to change the outcome in those states, but enough to affect the national margins.

That could be. But if that is true it should happen proportionately in the battleground states (absent some other explanation), in which case we should see them tip as well.

Could it be that liberal voters in VA and OH feel their vote is more important to the outcome so they cannot waste it on protest votes like they can afford to do in CA and NY.

Word has it that Barack is hung like an over-sized...

2008-07-18T17:05:00.001-04:00

Word has it that Barack is hung like an over-sized donkey and McCain's peter is pretty small.

I know I want my candidate to have the biggest unit possible.

Check it out at http://www.barackishung.com

Could Romney help carry Michigan? I do not know. I...

2008-07-18T17:05:00.000-04:00

Could Romney help carry Michigan? I do not know. I know the state is fed up with the Dems taxing at the state level with things not improving. Granholm, governor, ratings are down near Bush ratings. If the Repubs had any candidate whatsoever the last time around to throw at her they could have one. Heck I campaigned for her, when Mr. Amway was running for governor. Only the Devos and VanAndel families and Obama believe in Pyramid schemes. (Check posts from others describing his organization as a pyramid scheme, not from me.)

Unions are strong here, but have lost strength and numbers every year for about 10 straight years now. Delphi, GM, Chrysler, Ford, all downsized in the last 4 years, members transfered out of state. The unions have made us the incredibly shrinking state, and it is mostly Union Members and young college grads leaving (the people that need jobs)who happen to be two very important Democrat constituencies. Detroit over the past 15-20 years has gone from 1.8 million citizens down to just under 500k, which is another major Obama constituency.

In the meantime, Republican strongholds like Grand Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Traverse City, etc.. have had extraordinary growth, no recession at all in my neighborhood, unemployment almost non-existent in this part of the state.

So can Michigan be turned, probably, would Romney help, sure he would, is it likely, no. Not unless Ohio and FL (We refer to as South Michigan, half my clients also own property down there) go McCain first.

"Your claim about Ohio at least has some reasoning...

2008-07-18T17:04:00.000-04:00

"Your claim about Ohio at least has some reasoning, but I can't see that your confident declaration on Michigan does."

Confident? I hope you are not mistaking me for a McCain fangurrrrl. I am an Obama supporter who is trying to be realistic. I am looking at the landscape from what I know. MOreover, google SurveyUSA and see what their polling shows, albeit this was from late May. McCain/Romney beat any combo of Dems. Yes, it was late May, but it also speaks to Romney's popularity in MI.

"ajb said... I'm not so sure about how much help R...

2008-07-18T16:54:00.000-04:00

"ajb said...
I'm not so sure about how much help Romney would be in Michigan."

Romney's dad was a favorite Governor. People love the family. Two buildings downtown at the capital that house the MI House and Senate are the Romney Buildings. Name and family recognition can be big, especially in Michigan.

There is consideration about putting up a Romney pro family monument in Michigan which would be off a family picture of his, and would have a statue of Mitt Romney as a young boy, Michigan's favorite son. Romney is still big in Michigan, It would be great timing to unvail the monument with Mitt Romney the vice presidential nominee standing there sometime in mid to late October.

Rather has just given carte blanche for Republican...

2008-07-18T16:53:00.000-04:00

Rather has just given carte blanche for Republicans to "slip" and negate the hue and cry with "Rather made the slip too... innocent mistake!" Wonder if McCain himself will do it in one high profile way and Plead the Rather.

I'm not so sure about this. For one, it was a slip because Rather is old. I'm not sure McCain would want to draw attention to that. Secondly, Rather was yakking on a TV show with a former NY Giants running back. McCain is running for POTUS. The two situations are a bit different.

I doubt McCain would be so cynical as to confuse t...

2008-07-18T16:44:00.000-04:00

I doubt McCain would be so cynical as to confuse their names deliberately, then "plead the Rather." It might happen by mistake, though; McCain makes enough missteps that it could certainly happen. Now, McCain's GOP operatives, I'm not so sure about.