Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: More Updates on MT, MO, NC, IN

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2009-10-02T06:53:36.231-04:00

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2009-03-12T06:01:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T06:01:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:06:00.000-05:00

"Here's something incredible: Ralph Nader has rise...

2008-11-05T04:57:00.000-05:00

"Here's something incredible: Ralph Nader has risen from the grave to screw up yet another election - Missouri."

This is just silly, but if you're really going to grumble about third-party candidates, keep in mind that Barr helped flip Indiana in the Democratic candidate's favor. The two states have an equal number of electoral votes.

Cameron:I don't know where you would find hard num...

2008-11-05T03:13:00.000-05:00

Cameron:

I don't know where you would find hard numbers on provisional ballots, but looking over the MO law for provisional ballots it would make sense for it to take a while to count them.

The SOS site has Obama 5,000 behind McCain with 99.9% reporting (92.9% reporting from Christian County, 100% from St. Louis County). I have a feeling that most of the provisional ballots would be coming from new voters, or voters who have favored Obama. I take back what I said earlier. I can't guess who's getting these 11 electoral votes. Maybe MO can finally escape Jesusland.

Sooooooo close.I was staging location director for...

2008-11-05T03:00:00.000-05:00

Sooooooo close.

I was staging location director for the Obama campaign in Western Greene County.

Anyone know anything about provisionals? They could be relevant.

I think the Real Joe surprise is that so many peop...

2008-11-05T02:56:00.001-05:00

I think the Real Joe surprise is that so many people were actually expecting one.

They're still counting up all the GA early/absentee votes, supposedly. I hope they don't stop until they're all counted.

Whoops. Meant Christian County had 6500 more ba...

2008-11-05T02:56:00.000-05:00

Whoops. Meant Christian County had 6500 *more* ballots to tally at this point than St. Louis County. (Drinking and crunching numbers here) But the MO SOS site updated again and McCain pulled ahead by 2,600 votes with 0.03% of precincts yet to report in. A majority of which are in... yep, Christian County. Looks like McCain is going to squeak out a win in Missouri. Sort of sucks to see MO get it wrong considering that whole bellwether thing is pretty much all we had going for us in terms of coverage on the cable networks. :P

Sort of disappointed in my state to be honest. Not necessarily surprised, though.

travis: I have no idea where that AP blurb is gett...

2008-11-05T02:48:00.000-05:00

travis: I have no idea where that AP blurb is getting those numbers. The final "100% precincts reporting" numbers showing up everywhere else give Douglas county to Obama and Sarpy to McCain, with a net lead for McCain of 4,179 if you add the two counties' results together. Since not all of Sarpy is part of 2nd district this would give us a ceiling for McCain of +4,179... so how they come up with +4,500 or more is beyond me.

I'm pretty sure the .pdf that gives Obama +359 was posted after the final results for McCain-leaning Sarpy county, and the final postings for Douglas gave Obama a slightly wider lead than the ones they'd had up for most of the night, so barring recount shenanigans I think we can be pretty confident about Nebraska's 2nd turning blue. Yay.

Yeah, McCain leads by about 400 votes now and cons...

2008-11-05T02:47:00.000-05:00

Yeah, McCain leads by about 400 votes now and conservative Christian County had 6500 votes more than Obama-leaning St. Louis County. Don't know much about the provisional ballots, though.

I'm sitting at my desk in Greene County, MO. Looks like us college kids here had *some* impact. Greene County is the home of Roy Blunt just to give you some perspective.

for all of you looking for Real Joe's surprise, I ...

2008-11-05T02:44:00.002-05:00

for all of you looking for Real Joe's surprise, I guess it was that THERE WASN'T ONE

There are a lot of votes outstanding in GA because...

2008-11-05T02:44:00.001-05:00

There are a lot of votes outstanding in GA because they have not counted early votes in metro Atlanta. Could be up to 600k votes.

rumored 4000 provisional ballots in St Louis city ...

2008-11-05T02:44:00.000-05:00

rumored 4000 provisional ballots in St Louis city and county.

http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/political-fix/political-fix/2008/11/missouri-a-squeaker-obama-may-have-a-razor-thin-edge/

On August 15 if someone told you that VA, NC and p...

2008-11-05T02:41:00.001-05:00

On August 15 if someone told you that VA, NC and possibly MO were going to be blue, what would be your reaction?

The apparent speed that these states became in play seems phenomenal. Chalk it up to a professional, excited ground game.

I think the lack of an on the ground presence for McCryptKeeper will be one of the two reasons history lists for its failure. The second will be Palin and her darling KKK rallies.

Chambliss is hovering at 50.3% with 98% reporting....

2008-11-05T02:41:00.000-05:00

Chambliss is hovering at 50.3% with 98% reporting.

It's not only Stevens in Alaska--Don Young, the wo...

2008-11-05T02:40:00.000-05:00

It's not only Stevens in Alaska--Don Young, the worst congressman in the House, is leading Ethan Berkowitz by 6%---maybe unsurmountable given the number of remaining votes.

Christ on a crutch we have some stupid people in this state....

there are still 2 precincts in St. Louis County th...

2008-11-05T02:37:00.000-05:00

there are still 2 precincts in St. Louis County that haven't reported. 9 left in Christian County (and you can guess by the name where most of those votes are going).

NC is going BLUE BLUE BLUE!Y'all cannot imagine ho...

2008-11-05T02:36:00.000-05:00

NC is going BLUE BLUE BLUE!

Y'all cannot imagine how annoying it's been to be a progressive in this very PURPLE state, working hard for the last 8 years but dismissed derisively as "those people in Red States" as if we're one and all Bible-thumping rednecks with cardboard cutouts of Bush in our living rooms.

The Red States will still have that image for some (very unfair to the Blue voters in each and every one), but from what I'm seeing, NC will now be restored to a BLUE STATE!!

"There may be state statutes for an auto recount, ...

2008-11-05T02:34:00.000-05:00

"There may be state statutes for an auto recount, but I believe Missouri doesn't have one and I'm not sure why any state would have one for that matter."

Lots of good reasons. Without it, in a race that is close you get nothing but problems from both side. One wants it, the other doesn't.

By requiring that races within a certain margin get recounted, you shut them up somewhat. It ensures a fair and accurate accounting.

If a race is won by 20%, who cares is 500 votes were miscounted. In a close race, it matters.

Franken is 1,000 votes behind with a favorable env...

2008-11-05T02:33:00.001-05:00

Franken is 1,000 votes behind with a favorable environment.

Franken just pulled to within a hundred votes with...

2008-11-05T02:33:00.000-05:00

Franken just pulled to within a hundred votes with 94% of precincts reporting.

Regarding Nebraska 2:The unofficial results pdf at...

2008-11-05T02:32:00.000-05:00

Regarding Nebraska 2:

The unofficial results pdf at
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf
is currently showing only partial results as of 11:26 pm.
The vote count should definitely be higher for the final result...

A more recent number from the AP (1:35 AM) is that McCain leads by more than 4,500 votes:
http://www.nebraska.tv/Global/story.asp?S=9295532

I voted in Jackson Co., MO at 6:00 a.m. and have b...

2008-11-05T02:31:00.001-05:00

I voted in Jackson Co., MO at 6:00 a.m. and have been biting my nails all day. I'm pretty sure we're going blue by a hair.

Some of the precincts here had their roll books swapped around and delayed voting by a couple hours this morning, and I think provisional ballots were handed out at at least one of those locations.