Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Ohio Early Voting Update

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Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature...

2008-10-04T03:49:00.000-04:00

Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature, I've just compared Google Insights graphs of the parties' popularity in OH with Pollster.com graphs of the candidates in the same "toss-up" state. Interesting similarities and contrasts... See my Word Face-Off blog. I also looked into the 3rd parties and their candidates.

Does anybody come back to these comments after a f...

2008-09-03T07:02:00.000-04:00

Does anybody come back to these comments after a few newer posts have been made? If not, then I guess I get to have the last laugh! ;)

GaMeS and Mike in Maryland:
I agree with you that the AIP is totally dodgy. However I disagree that they are, as a party, clearly secessionist. If you dig around their website, under Issues they say state:
The AIP believes full compliance with the constitutions of the United States of America and the State of Alaska is necessary.

They then go on with a bunch of 200-year-old arguments for State's Rights. Libertarians and Texans spout this kind of stuff all the time. Only the fringe really want secession.

My original point is that I'm calling Occam's Razor on this. Palin's not a secessionist. She's clearly ambitious; how would a secessionist agenda benefit her? So she could be Queen of Alaska and all the moose and salmon she surveyed? It's seems much simpler and liklier that she was just pandering for votes.

Actually, my original point was that these are all rumors that started with something fairly trivial and then built up their own momentum. The problem with the rumors is that they are often mistaken for fact. The best way to defend against the rumors is to stick to issues, stated positions, and voting records - which is how democracy is supposed to work in theory anyways.

Seems that many of the right-wing contributors to ...

2008-09-03T00:21:00.000-04:00

Seems that many of the right-wing contributors to this site have a reading comprehension problem.

Alaskan Independence Party - it seems that many right-wingers are forgetting the word 'Independence' is part of the party's name.

Is it the name of a town in Alaska, ala the towns named 'Independence' in Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Oregon, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Kansas, Iowa, California or Minnesota, or a county, ala Independence County in Arkansas? Checking Mapquest, there is no town in Alaska named 'Independence' - 10 communities named 'Independence Creek', but not a single one named 'Independence'. And Alaska doesn't have counties, so no 'Independence County'. Throw out the thought that the 'Independence' part of the Alaskan Independence Party is some reference to a place in Alaska.

So we go to the dictionary to figure out what 'Independence' means:

1. the state or quality of being independent.
2. freedom from the control, influence, support, aid, or the like, of others.
Dictionary.com Unabridged

Independent from what? Isn't Alaska part of the United States of America?

Independence from the US government maybe? So a political party advocating 'Independence' would be highly likely to be advocating 'freedom from the control, influence, support, aid, or the like, of others', i.e., complete and total separation from that association with the rest of the US wouldn't it?

In other words, secession? Wasn't that one of the causes of the US Civil War?

Do any of the right-wingers who 'contribute' to this site have any other logical explanation on what the word 'Independence', as used by the Alaskan 'Independence' Party, might mean?

Remember, I said 'logical'. Let's see if any of the right-wingers understand that concept. They haven't shown great skill in exhibiting that for a while - maybe they've just been holding it in reserve. Possible, but doubtful.

Mike

BTW, this insistence that the Alaskan Independence...

2008-09-02T21:31:00.000-04:00

BTW, this insistence that the Alaskan Independence Party does not have secessionist goals is just a little absurd. Anyone with even the most basic reading comprehension can see what they're saying (comments added; I use bold to highlight particular things, but I omit none of their text):

~~~~~~~~~
ALASKA FIRST!
~~~~~~~~~

It's rhetoric, but if you're putting Alaska first, then by necessity you aren't putting country first. Only one of these can be your first priority, and the President and Vice President both swear to preserve and defend the Constitution of the United States against enemies foreign and domestic.

And the Constitution doesn't allow for a state to choose secession. That is most assuredly NOT "Country First."

(More on this below.)

~~~~~~~~~
Until we as Alaskans receive our Ultimate Goal, the AIP will continue to strive to make Alaska a better place to live with less government interference in our everyday lives.
~~~~~~~~~

Isn't the use of capitalization there a little odd? Kind of like the difference between final solution and Final Solution.

... I'm sure it's just a question of style, but someone could reasonably interpret that as being a code phrase.

~~~~~~~~~
The Alaskan Independence Party's goal is the vote we were entitled to in 1958, one choice from among the following four alternatives:

1) Remain a Territory.
2) Become a separate and Independent Nation.
3) Accept Commonwealth status.
4) Become a State.
~~~~~~~~~

This is an interesting complaint, but it shows a fundamental misunderstanding about the voting process.

Let's say you and your family want to have dinner and you normally cook at home, but you want to consider the alternatives of going out to a restaurant, picking up fast food, or having a pizza delivered.

Now, one option would be to sit down the family and describe each of the four options and ask each member to vote for one of them (or to rank-order their preferences), and this is perfectly valid. It would also take a LOT more time than a simple yea-or-nay response to each option, offered sequentially.

But it is just as valid to have a series of up-down votes. "Do you want pizza?" "Do you want fast food?" "Do you want to go out?" If you get a majority yes on any one of them, you can in all fairness stop immediately. If you get a no on all of them, you keep the default (in this case, "Cook at home").

Can this be manipulated to cause particular results? Absolutely -- it's called the "power of agenda" and it's why committee chairs are so influential. But this doesn't make it any less fair -- you're all still voting, after all.

For example, imagine that no single choice has a majority BUT a majority do not want to cook at home. If you control the sequence of votes, you can lead the voting to your preferred outcome (eating out, in this case). You vote first for pizza; no majority. You next vote for fast food; still no majority. You finally vote for going out; now, since a majority do NOT want to eat at home, they vote in favor of eating out.

You get your desired outcome, and everyone else avoids an outcome they didn't want. Not bad, really. Could it be better? Sure ... but it's BIG stretch to act like this is inherently undemocratic. It's just the way voting works, and it breaks down complex issues into up-down votes.

The same logic applies to this demand for a four-way vote by the AIP -- it's not necessary to qualify as being fair and providing for self-determination. If the first vote is "statehood vs. stay territory," and statehood wins a majority, it is perfectly fair to accept that result as democratic and representative. (If the people had really wanted something other than statehood, they could have voted "no" and stayed a territory; later, they could have organized a different bid for commonwealth or independence or whatever.)

Ultimately, since there was a fair democratic vote for statehood, the various UN resolutions aren't violated and therefore there is no basis in the US Constitution for their desire to secede.

Conclusion: Their demands are unconstitutional and therefore incompatible with the oath of office for the President and Vice President.

~~~~~~~~~
The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream of the Alaskan Independence Party's founding father, Joe Vogler, which was for Alaskans to achieve independence under a minimal government, fully responsive to the people, promoting a peaceful and lawful means of resolving differences.
~~~~~~~~~

Let's look at that again, this time omitting an unnecessary adverbial clause and a trailing prepositional phrase, doing so without changing the subject and predicate of the sentence:

"The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream ... for Alaskans to achieve independence..."

Removing ellipses for clarity (again, the sentence's meaning does not change one bit):

"The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream for Alaskans to achieve independence."

This is what that sentence says and means.

So ...

What part of that statement tells you it's not a secessionist platform?

The paper-thin defense that "some members are in favor of independence and others aren't" is meaningless -- it's like saying the Democratic Party platform isn't pro-choice because "some Democrats are pro-choice and some are pro-life."

In other words, it's a laughable red herring.

"i honestly don't know what the practical, real-wo...

2008-09-02T20:56:00.000-04:00

"i honestly don't know what the practical, real-world differences are between a state and a commonwealth. anyone here (probably) know more than me?"

There isn't one. My guess is that they only want to include it to split the statehood supporters.

"Can Ohio college students who are from out-of-sta...

2008-09-02T20:25:00.000-04:00

"Can Ohio college students who are from out-of-state register and vote in Ohio?"

I'm here in Ohio and, while I don't work for the board of elections, I'm fairly sure they can register if they can show proof they have been a resident for six months.

Tenn Pregnancy Gate spin:http://www.sfgate.com/cgi...

2008-09-02T20:24:00.000-04:00

Tenn Pregnancy Gate spin:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/01/politics/p091657D38.DTL

Scroll down to where the fathers, mother says. "they were planning to wed, this is an added blessing."

If Bristol was 18 and not 17 this wouldnt be an issue at all.

Notice too that the father is at the convention tonight, yet Palin is reported not to be.

Pure speculation on my apart follows. Call it political theatre.

End of prime time coverage.

Palin walks on stage followed by Bristol and Levi. He gets down on one knee... proposes house goes wild.

Palins acceptance speech is tomorrow.

All these small issues brought up in blogs are addressed.

See you at the debates.

Election day comes dow to the same counties that determined 2000 and 2004.

Do Obama supporters REALLY want to be bringing up ...

2008-09-02T20:09:00.000-04:00

Do Obama supporters REALLY want to be bringing up church videos? Not a smart move, folks.

Virginia Conservative said... He should have co...

2008-09-02T20:03:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative said...

He should have come in person, in prime time and defend his record as President.

Are you serious? Do you even want McCain to win? I don't understand you republicans, you had a golden opportunity to avoid both bush and cheney but today morning I wake up to see that Bush is back on the convention agenda. WTF? This is so incredibly stupid. Bush coming to the convention in person is going to solve nothing except give dems some more footage for Bush-McCain ads.

Now MSNBC is posting about Palin's church video wh...

2008-09-02T19:58:00.000-04:00

Now MSNBC is posting about Palin's church video which has created some controversy http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/02/1327574.aspx#comments
This is not going to play well at all with moderate suburban voters in Detroit & Denver suburbs. It will be more damaging then any other controversies because here the words are coming out of Palin's own mouth not actions of a daughter, a crazy pastor or political affiliation of the husband. It will be interesting to see if the rest of MSM picks up this story.

On the positive side, it is lucky for McCain & Palin that all these issues are popping out at the same time so media is having a hard time following all of them closely.

VCon:I said the main legitimate reason to doubt Sa...

2008-09-02T19:57:00.000-04:00

VCon:

I said the main legitimate reason to doubt Sarah Palin was the AIP stuff. If, as the case seems to be, she was just someone who associated with them, it shouldn't be brought up as that important. Ever her husband being a member is not that important.

So now the question is just her lack of experience. Which, of course, isn't always a deal breaker, but in this case it seems like it is.

Honestly, if I was John McCain I would say: "Look ...

2008-09-02T19:52:00.000-04:00

Honestly, if I was John McCain I would say: "Look George, you're a good guy, but can't you make an excuse to run off somewhere? Like, disaster relief or something? The last thing I need is you and your 35% approval ratings at my convention"

But I suppose that would be seen as a conspicuous absence.

They didn't put him in a primetime spot anyways so it's doubtful the networks will cover it much.

Also it would have helped if he would talk about a...

2008-09-02T19:46:00.000-04:00

Also it would have helped if he would talk about all the disagreements he has had with McCain and how many times they were on the opposite side of issues.

He should have come in person, in prime time and d...

2008-09-02T19:43:00.000-04:00

He should have come in person, in prime time and defend his record as President.

I must echo VACon's sentiment.In other news, who's...

2008-09-02T19:42:00.000-04:00

I must echo VACon's sentiment.

In other news, who's ready for George W. Bush's big speech tonight?

Fuck Tom Delay.

2008-09-02T19:35:00.000-04:00

Fuck Tom Delay.

Tom Delay (on MSNBC right now) is the best example...

2008-09-02T19:22:00.000-04:00

Tom Delay (on MSNBC right now) is the best example of why the GOP lost this country over the last 6 years. He was almost a pre-cursor to Cheney-Bush. What a joke. I hope they keep sending him out there.

David and Joe: While I can understand it is easy f...

2008-09-02T19:21:00.000-04:00

David and Joe: While I can understand it is easy for you to assume my comments were sexist, I assure you I would say the same where Palin a man. I simply feel that this is not a time in a persons life they should accept something this important. And while wealthy families do indeed find it easy to hire nannies and the like, that is by no means a good solution.
I am not in any way claiming that the children aspect is the best or most important issue with Palin, I simply wished to express that I feel it is a valid one.
Trust me I'm far more concerned with Pain being a Wing Nut Jesus Freak who tries to burn books and uses political power for her own personal agenda.

Just want to say hi to the 538 crowd. Long time r...

2008-09-02T19:20:00.000-04:00

Just want to say hi to the 538 crowd. Long time reader, first time poster. Palin is a typical Republican: Implements a failed policy (abstinence only sex education), covers it up (literally had the pregnant daughter holding the newborn in front of the baby bump), instead of assessing the situation they are staying the course (making the poor kids get married) “That is not change that is more of the same.”

Agree, it is her family she can treat it how she w...

2008-09-02T19:17:00.000-04:00

Agree, it is her family she can treat it how she wants.

BUT the rest of this crap is fair game, including abstinence education

x0lani,1. you're correct - the goal is for the vot...

2008-09-02T19:16:00.001-04:00

x0lani,

1. you're correct - the goal is for the vote, and secession is only one of the options. another option is to become a territory - so, basically what alaska was before the vote for statehood. i presume most AIP members are not going to be of the belief that it's a good thing to remain a state, right? otherwise why fight so hard for the vote?

i honestly don't know what the practical, real-world differences are between a state and a commonwealth. anyone here (probably) know more than me?

2. the AIP further states that the purpose of getting this vote is to further the dream of its founder, joe vogler. vogler was a well-known secessionist. his dream wasn't a commonwealth.

Arnold officially cancelled to deal with the budge...

2008-09-02T19:16:00.000-04:00

Arnold officially cancelled to deal with the budget in Sacramento.