Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Washoe County, Nevada About To Flip Blue?

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2009-10-08T03:32:04.898-04:00

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2009-01-19T08:20:00.000-05:00

"...Barack Obama performed strongly in northern Ne...

2008-09-23T16:38:00.000-04:00

"...Barack Obama performed strongly in northern Nevada during the caucuses, drawing many crossover voters..."
I rather say they were voting against Hillary than for Obama. One would like where Obama stands with the Union/Hispanic voters on Nevada

The Obama campaign is pulling out all the stops in...

2008-09-23T14:28:00.000-04:00

The Obama campaign is pulling out all the stops in Washoe County. They knocked on over 15,000 doors this weekend. And this isn't some anecdotal report like the claim that "the McCain campaign is overflowing with supporters"--you can see pictures here: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/23/44921/2385/334/606833

Obama can't play for the 269-269 tie! Winners go ...

2008-09-23T14:19:00.000-04:00

Obama can't play for the 269-269 tie! Winners go for the outright win.

Remember Maine and NE split the EC votes.

In 2004, MN went 9 for Kerry and 1 for Edwards. Thats why every state in play is important.

jrc in mn

T

I work at the local paper in Reno, lived here for ...

2008-09-23T12:56:00.000-04:00

I work at the local paper in Reno, lived here for two years, and voted in the primaries for Obama. I have never seen such excitement in young people as I have this year. Washoe is going for Obama, you can guarantee it.

As someone who worked their ass off over Labor Day...

2008-09-23T12:42:00.000-04:00

As someone who worked their ass off over Labor Day weekend in Sparks and Reno for the Obama camp, I can say there is definitely a shift going on from the ground.

Re: Washoe County Thats what I'm talking about!

2008-09-23T11:22:00.000-04:00

Re: Washoe County

Thats what I'm talking about!

I know a lot of people who've moved from Californi...

2008-09-23T11:19:00.000-04:00

I know a lot of people who've moved from California to Nevada, Arizona and Colorado. Most of the Colorado implants were liberal and going there for either high tech jobs or the environment. Most of the Nevadan and Arizonian implants that I know were leaving the state to avoid the high cost of living here. They are primarily conservative blaming the high cost of living in the Bay Area on "liberals" and "immigrants". So to say that Californians in Nevada are primarily liberal is a bit of a stretch.

""break" meaning consistent polling showing Obama ...

2008-09-23T11:07:00.000-04:00

""break" meaning consistent polling showing Obama ahead during the upcoming weeks - not just 2 polls. McCain has led VA consistently (or a few ties) until recently."

I think he means "open up for Obama", not break. Breaking happens among a specific group or rank of voter.

I am hesitant to say VA is opening up for Obama just yet. There are so many X factors at play here and in NC (for that matter, SC, too). Minority turnout in 2008 will be at a record level. New registrations are keeping clerk's offices open 24/7 to process the volume. The demographics of VA (and NC for that matter) are more educated, more white collar, and less apt to consider race. Throw in a libertarian (Barr) in traditional GOP states where GOP voters are looking for an alternative, and you have A LOT of X factors that will keep these states from being called right after the polls close.

Combine that with anger and the fact that VA and NC are both 70% plus on the belief we are going in the wrong direction and you can see why talk of an Obama win is not out of the question. The longer these states stay undeclared, it tells Nevadans on the fence at 5 PM that the nation is breaking toward Obama.

Call that the "Reagan Effect". States in the west broke after 5 PM at the polls once the landslide projections on the east coast were being made. In a close election, perception will matter.

Right wing is rigging PBS pollsavatar September 22...

2008-09-23T11:05:00.000-04:00

Right wing is rigging PBS polls
avatar
September 22, 2008,

PBS is running a poll which asks if Palin is qualified to be VP. The right wing has organized a Yes campaign and at the moment, the yes option is winning.

Please consider doing this. It's important. It takes 10 seconds.
http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html

They're also running this one about who is more qualified to handle the economy:
http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-437.html

Obama 50-46 in PAhttp://www.americanresearchgroup....

2008-09-23T10:41:00.000-04:00

Obama 50-46 in PA

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Nevada is hugely important, because this election ...

2008-09-23T10:27:00.000-04:00

Nevada is hugely important, because this election is not just about numbers and winning... it's about governing.

The more smaller states in the center of the country that turn blue, the more Obama will be able to govern as the president of all the people, not just the elite urban states along the two seaboards.

Breaking the stranglehold of partisanship and regionalism on our polictical process could be the historic, enduring legacy of this extraodinary election.

Sedi said"VA might break next."I'm not sure what y...

2008-09-23T09:54:00.000-04:00

Sedi said

"VA might break next."

I'm not sure what you mean by this. In three VA polls yesterday, Obama led by 6 (SUSA) and by 8 (ABC/Post) and trailed by 2 (Ras). In five other polls released on 9/14 or later, Obama has led in two, trailed in two, and tied in one. VA is clearly not secure for Obama, but polls from yesterday were extraordinarily good (enthralling?) for him.

"break" meaning consistent polling showing Obama ahead during the upcoming weeks - not just 2 polls. McCain has led VA consistently (or a few ties) until recently.

To the folks saying Nevada is insignificant: you'r...

2008-09-23T09:48:00.000-04:00

To the folks saying Nevada is insignificant: you're wrong! There are many scenarios where it is important. For example, what if Obama wins Kerry+Iowa+NM+Col, but loses NH. He will be stuck at 269. Then Nev. comes into play, even though I like Obama's chances if it's a tie.

They are wrong generally. Oklahoma is irrelevant. Georgia is irrelevant. Every state where Obama is within striking distance--especially a state like Nevada where the prospects of a long-term shift are very good with the influx of Californians and a quickly growing Hispanic population--is highly relevant.

Despite Shrub's contentions to the contrary, a governing mandate comes from wide-spread support. A shift of 10 electoral votes, even if not needed to squeak out 270, is a big deal.

NV, NM, CO, VA, and NC are very important, beyond just this election. They represent a possibly new Democratic coalition based on demographic shifts. Show them the effort now, and they will reward you for it for years to come.

Here's an interesting tidbit in Central Florida. ...

2008-09-23T09:17:00.000-04:00

Here's an interesting tidbit in Central Florida. Listed below are 'TV Ad Tallies' that I personally witnessed since waking up a few hours ago:

Obama - 11 ads
McCain - 0 ads
Non-Campaign - 1 ad (Obama Against Surge)

I'm not sure why the McCain ads have dropped so sharply in the local market this week. It previously was around a 60%-40% McCain TV Ad advantage right up until about 10 days ago, when Obama began an advertising 'surge' of his own. Of course, this is just one morning's snapshot. But its clear that Obama is at least spending SOME of that '$39mil For Florida' that Mr. Plouffe was laying out last week.

new post

2008-09-23T09:16:00.000-04:00

new post

Camps?

2008-09-23T09:12:00.000-04:00

Camps?

George Will compares McCain to the Queen of Hearts...

2008-09-23T09:11:00.000-04:00

George Will compares McCain to the Queen of Hearts"

Is Will suggesting that JohnnyMac play a nice game of Solitaire?

"I'm buying foreign currency today."I have a canad...

2008-09-23T09:10:00.000-04:00

"I'm buying foreign currency today."

I have a canadian fiver, a loonie and a toonie at home. Might be time to expand that...

I'm buying foreign currency today.

2008-09-23T09:09:00.000-04:00

I'm buying foreign currency today.