Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Democrats Have No Time to Waste

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2009-10-12T04:06:55.206-04:00

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2009-09-06T03:37:02.648-04:00

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2009-08-03T23:13:59.324-04:00

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2009-07-22T03:48:09.705-04:00

Nice straw man, playing semantic games to twist my...

2009-07-13T22:01:58.423-04:00

Nice straw man, playing semantic games to twist my words and meaning. The fact remains that congress does not have jurisdiction over the execulive branch, that the CIA does not need to tell congress everything that passes across anyone's desk, and Cheney did nothing that he would be prosecuted for. All other twisting is superfluous.

jindal is not an american citizen he was born in i...

2009-07-13T21:58:07.258-04:00

jindal is not an american citizen he was born in india. both his parents were indian citizens and wanted to return home for his birth.

it wasnt till years later they became american citizens.

that is one of the reason jindal refuses to produces his birth certificate. that is going to be a real problem for the republicans.

The auto and residential construction had been dri...

2009-07-13T20:23:24.912-04:00

The auto and residential construction had been drivers of the economy. It appears that the banking industry have been stabilized but demand is lagging because of economic pessimism.

The major layoffs appear to be over and now the thought is that a slow but steady recovery is ahead.

If I were King I am not sure what I would do to change things but doubt that another stimulus package is necessary or would do any good.

Congress can't make laws that infringe on the exec...

2009-07-13T19:15:06.544-04:00

Congress can't make laws that infringe on the executive branch???

First, requiring that the CIA tells Congress what it's doing does not infringe upon the executive branch. It merely allows the constitutionally-mandated congressional oversight. Without full and accurate reporting, no oversight is possible.

In fact, in a democracy - my opinion here - the executive branch should have no rights to secrecy whatever. We, the People are supposed to be the decision makers. Without being fully informed, we can't make informed decisions. Duh.

But as for infringing on the powers of the executive branch - Congress can't alter the constitutionally-mandated powers of the executive. But Congress can certainly put other requirements on the President or any other governmental official - witness, for example, the War Powers Act, or even the laws that created the CIA, the FBI, and all other executive agencies.

This idea that Congress can't make laws that apply to the Executive is simply absurd, and utterly false.

Actually, Pragmatus, I have been making this same...

2009-07-13T17:43:22.915-04:00

Actually, Pragmatus, I have been making this same prediction for months and months. It is only now that it is becoming accepted wisdom, even by our own precious Nate!

Go ahead and wail and gnash your teeth in darkness, fool!

petekent01 (on twitter)

PeteKent… Your predictions come so fast and furi...

2009-07-13T16:16:40.296-04:00

PeteKent…

Your predictions come so fast and furious that you must wear out one crystal ball a week. Must be quite an expense—can you write them off on your taxes?

You Break it – You Buy It Nate, unlike many of th...

2009-07-13T15:09:39.682-04:00

You Break it – You Buy It

Nate, unlike many of the LIB posters here, is a realist where it comes to the economy and he can read the tea leaves and see the likely persistence of high unemployment as a real political problem for the Democrats and he is prefiguring quite a significant loss of seats for the Donkey Party in 2010.

It is now becoming nearly conventional wisdom that Obama’s stimulus legislation has failed. It will have little impact until next year, a time by which CV would have anticipated that the recession would have been over anyway. Of course, the bill was poorly designed and was much more a disguised social agenda for America than a jobs and recovery bill.

The failure of the stimulus will now throw great suspicion on Obama and his ability to forecast economic matters and the impact of policy (e.g. healthcare reform!). Obama’s credibility is on the line as it appears he lied about the impact of his economic legislation and used fuzzy math and phony statistics to get what he wanted in a bill that had to be passed within hours or else!

The next casualty will likely be Cap N’ Trade which has a very low possibility of being enacted into law, except perhaps as some here have suggested in a lame duck session after the mid-terms. (How shocking that the Democrat Party would be unwilling to expose its agenda to the people and would rather pass it by dark of night under conditions where they may have two years to calm the people’s wrath.) There is something wrong with a party that would behave that way and in such tactical calculation may be sown the seeds of even greater defeat.

Nate makes the mistake of describing unemployment as a “lagging indicator”. While typically, employment is one of the last of the economic indicators to pick up in a recovery, many economists now are seeing a paradigm shift, particularly because of the very extent of unemployment and how, as it continues to climb (some are saying now it may touch 14%), it will create a very negative economic feedback loop that will cause more defaults on mortgages and other loans and will continue to suppress spending to the point where the economy will remain mired in the doldrums for several years, with unemployment remaining at stubbornly high and politically unacceptable levels.

Which brings us to Obama’s re-election year of 2012. If he presides over a pallid, anemic economy which set on a “new normal” of subpar growth, there will be a price to pay. And a heavy one. We see that thus far the recession is hurting men the most. Indeed some have taken to calling it a “He-cession”. Men have always been the most fragile element of Obama’s coalition and as they peel away his support will plummet.

If only our President had not been such an ideologue and he had designed his stimulus bill to actually do something about the economy instead of reward the likes of ACORN and implement his liberal social policy agenda, he might have stood a chance. But now it’s a matter “You break it, you buy it”. Obama owns the economy and as it goes so go his fortunes.

The signs are not promising. A Republican tide will be rising.

I want him to fail and I am getting my wish!

Romney – Palin ‘12

petekent01 (on twitter)

jdk I am one of those people who believe tax cuts ...

2009-07-13T11:07:51.661-04:00

jdk I am one of those people who believe tax cuts are in no way an answer. I'm sorry but to continue to give tax cuts IS more of the same old thing that *doesn't work*. I don't care who says it, dem or republican. You can't cut the interest rates anymore and "cutting taxes" has proved to be half of what got us here. If anyone truly thinks all it would have taken is some tax cuts to dig us out of this they are dreaming.

Also, "short run" is another thing that got us here. Continually thinking of what to do for the short term is no answer either. This is 30 or better years in the making. I'm tired of "short term" thinking.

My questions still stand.

nova_middle_man: Sorry, old boy, it's the Republic...

2009-07-13T10:57:52.346-04:00

nova_middle_man: Sorry, old boy, it's the Republican bizzaro world these days. Or have you forgotten the Reagan and Bush big governments?

(And how about Palin, Ensign, and Sanford? I think conservatives have a lock on bizzaro these days!)

Are you guys living on bizzaro world. Oh wait its...

2009-07-13T10:19:46.188-04:00

Are you guys living on bizzaro world. Oh wait its the true liberal big government is always best crowd.

Rudy, you have very odd ideas about the structure ...

2009-07-13T03:13:28.603-04:00

Rudy, you have very odd ideas about the structure of the U.S. Constitution. The CIA was established by act of Congress (the National Security Act of 1947), and could be abolished by legislation. The CIA's powers can neither be expanded nor limited by executive action alone.

None of the great executive departments, even State or Treasury, are constitutionally established. All exist by virtue of Congressional legislation. The Congress most certainly does have "jurisdiction" to regulate the structure and scope of the CIA.

Pragmatus, Trying to discuss anything with someon...

2009-07-13T03:11:14.817-04:00

Pragmatus,

Trying to discuss anything with someone like 'Rudy' is pointless. After all, 'Rudy' is one of those who believes in the Cheney 'unified executive' doctrine of UN-Constitutional usurpation of power into the White House.

In other words, a certifiable wingnut, aka a TROLL.

The only way to 'discuss' things with them is to make fun of any 'discussion points' they make that they can't back up, and/or can be easily dismembered as totally fallacious. Of course, that's almost all 'discussion points' that they attempt to advance.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

slasher14 said: One should be a tax cut to everyon...

2009-07-13T02:45:03.741-04:00

slasher14 said: One should be a tax cut to everyone below a certain income level (say $250,000) in more or less the same form as the first stimulus.

In these tight and uncertain times, tax cuts are not a very good stimulus policy. People worried about their jobs are more likely to save this money than to spend it.

Pragmatus, you really have no idea what you're tal...

2009-07-13T01:51:47.817-04:00

Pragmatus, you really have no idea what you're talking about, you are just blowing smoke.

I think you fail to grasp the separation of powers aspect of the constitution. Congress does not have jurisdiction over the executive branch. Advise and consent is not jurisdiction; it's in the constitution. Impeachment is not a law passed by congress; it's in the constitution. Congress didn't endow itself with those powers.

Congress can pass all the laws it wants, but it cannot pass enforcable laws that take power away from the executive branch. The laws we're discussing fall into that category.

Iran Contra did not move forward for exactly this reason, not because of some supposed sympathy for Reagan. He was on the right side of that dispute.

Rudy… I almost hate to point a few things out. ...

2009-07-13T01:26:01.566-04:00

Rudy…

I almost hate to point a few things out. Are you a foreigner? Otherwise I can’t account for your ignorance of the U.S. Constitution.

You have declared that the Congress has no jurisdiction over the Executive branch. Please telegram your finding to President Obama. I’m sure he will be delighted to learn that his next cabinet appointment, the next treaty he negotiates, and also Sonya Sotomayor’s nomination needn’t go through Congress to be put into effect.

Also, you have stated categorically that Congress cannot pass laws giving it jurisdiction over the executive. Who, may I ask, in your scenario, passes laws? Who was it that brought articles of impeachment against President Clinton? Who was it that barred the use of Treasury funds (under control of the Executive in the U.S. system) to aid the Contras during the Reagan Administration? Do you have any idea how the government works?

The reason Iran-Contra was never followed to the ground was that Congress was afraid to go after President Reagan, who by that time had become an object of great sympathy to the public, since under questioning he could scarcely remember anything that happened during the entire course of his presidency. It was pathetic to watch him on tape, but his bumbling, empty-headed performance was the best testimony possible that he was never fit to be president. The Congress knew that if it followed the laws and went after Reagan, every member would suffer for it at the polls.

You understand nothing of either the government or human nature.

Juvanya- Here's exactly what happened to "shovel-r...

2009-07-13T01:12:57.513-04:00

Juvanya-
Here's exactly what happened to "shovel-ready" projects and why stimulus money can't be used to buy and build Amtrak right of way:
The EIRs would still be incomplete or in litigation when Obama is termed out as President in 2017.

Pragmatus: No that's not what I'm saying -- you'r...

2009-07-13T00:20:31.182-04:00

Pragmatus: No that's not what I'm saying -- you're putting words in my mouth. What I'm saying is that Congress cannot pass laws giving it jurisdiction over the executive branch. Oversight, yes. Jurisdiction, no. You will find no reputable constitutional scholar who thinks otherwise. The CIA creation laws are still the operable standard, not the later laws that violate separation of powers. If you suggest otherwise, show some case law.

Further, in this recent example, nothing ever happened. It was just talk that never amounted to anything. Maybe, as you say, there is more to come. We've heard that kind of wishful thinking before from the wild-eyed crowd.

And as far as the sales tax in CA: frogs, boiling water.

Rudy… So what you seem to be saying is that you ...

2009-07-13T00:06:49.143-04:00

Rudy…

So what you seem to be saying is that you disagree with the restrictions on the CIA put into law following Nixon’s egregious misuse of that agency. I’m further guessing that you think it was OK for Nixon to do what he did with the CIA.

If so, I don’t think we could have a reasonable discussion about anything.

Over the past several months, the sales tax here i...

2009-07-13T00:01:08.062-04:00

Over the past several months, the sales tax here in Los Angeles County has gone from 8.25% to 9.75%. (There is no sales tax on food in CA.) Funny, but even a tax increase that hefty (a whopping 18%, folks) has elicited not the slightest complaint from anyone I know, or anywhere else as far as I can tell.

Could it actually be true that sensible people are willing to shoulder reasonable tax increases when it is necessary?

Apparently so, but don’t tell a Republican. You’ll just get an apoplectic argument.

@Cosa Nostradamus You said "Then there's the crim...

2009-07-12T23:58:32.641-04:00

@Cosa Nostradamus

You said "Then there's the crime rate, which always goes up in hard times"

Sources? This appears intuitive, which makes me doubt it all the more.

Hi, Nate, I think you may have left a couple of t...

2009-07-12T23:41:42.453-04:00

Hi, Nate,

I think you may have left a couple of things out of your earlier analysis (2/10/09) of unemployment numbers, that may be germane to this discussion.

First, unless my eyes deceive, all of the curves you show are very symmetrical. This makes intuitive sense; slow fall/slow rise, steep fall(like now)/steep rise(?).

Second, the "Greenspan era" is also, by and large, the "Republican era", both in the WH and, to a significant extent, the congress. This suggests that we should take into account the Republican's disinterest in using government power to improve job numbers. Indeed, isn't this one of the reasons that many people (like me) prefer Democrats to Republicans?

Anyway, keep up your good work!