Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Congress: A Good Place for Health Care To Die

People, chill! We all know Obama lets Congress fa...

2009-06-19T16:45:49.655-04:00

People, chill!

We all know Obama lets Congress fail before jumping in the mix--- Nate even alludes to this. Second, he doesn't rush when he talks, and he doesn't rush when he works. Third, he knows as well as anybody that change in America does not happen overnight. Never has, never will. It's not a defect, it's how America works. As the kids would say, that's how we roll.

Fourth, and this is important, Obama never campaigned for single-payer during his presidency.
Should we really hold him responsible for not bringing it?

And finally, I would much rather have the government tell my mother she's too old for overpriced medicine that only has a slim chance of adding a few agonizing months to her life than have an insurance company tell me I can't have life- or limb-saving surgery because the CEO wants to install satellite TV on his yacht.

And so what if the big bad government insurance denies people useless care at the end of the lives that that insurance will have already added years to? It's asking people to sacrifice the end sliver of their lives to make our country better. The government routinely asks people to make much bigger sacrifices than that. Soldiers, for instance, risk themselves in the prime of their youth, but that doesn't mean that our armed forces are evil or that they will destroy America.

I think we need to get out on the streets and be l...

2009-06-19T14:54:42.053-04:00

I think we need to get out on the streets and be like:
GIVE US UHC OR GIVE US DEATH!

In Iran, the Basij would then come out and shoot us all for the lulz. haha

They need to learn from the mistakes made in Massa...

2009-06-19T12:40:46.279-04:00

They need to learn from the mistakes made in Massachusetts,Canada and Britian before passing healthare reform. There are flaws in the public plan part of it.The Massachusetts plan is costing more than expected and causing huge problems. They need to slow down and make sure they get it right. If you make mistakes on healthcare it will turn into a huge disaster.

Although I will say thats negotiation 101 You set...

2009-06-19T10:09:22.985-04:00

Although I will say thats negotiation 101

You set your goalpost as far left as possible. Then when you eventually compromise you are more to the left then if you had the more moderate plan to begin with.

@Jeff Thanks for that. Once again proving my poi...

2009-06-19T10:07:18.623-04:00

@Jeff

Thanks for that. Once again proving my point

@Nosimplehiway I'm sorry you feel that way. I wi...

2009-06-19T10:05:43.465-04:00

@Nosimplehiway

I'm sorry you feel that way. I will submit it is kind of pointless on this issue. You have laid out your positions and what you want done.

I simply disagree and I submit once again the American public do as well otherwise the politicians would let your ideas fly through.

As for being caught in a lie I was making a point to counteract the previous post which conveniently left out more details.

The problem is that poll is totally subjective. That poll doesn't say what the details of Obamas plan are. It doesn't say if people were told how much it would cost or what level of service would result.

Its typical of most polls/issues for the American public. Most people want to give more people health care. Most people don't want to pay for it and don't want levels of service to decrease or premiums to go up. The devils in the details and they are sketcy at best.

In closing I think all of this is way too premature. We need some actual detailed plans before we can discuss further.

Have a good day

The Hill today, quoting a senior Dem aid in the Ho...

2009-06-19T10:01:13.125-04:00

The Hill today, quoting a senior Dem aid in the House:

The two groups, which combined have 131 members — more than half the House Democratic Caucus — have been holding meetings to see where they can agree on a healthcare plan…There is concern among centrists in the caucus that the draft bill, to be released Friday, will reflect some of the more liberal ideas in the caucus, although leadership has already rejected the idea of a single-payer system. It is being put together by the House Education and Labor, Energy and Commerce and Ways and Means committees.

"You have a bunch of crazy liberal chairs and their crazy liberal staffers, and they want to lay down a marker," said a senior Democratic aide.

And this is supposed to be the "easy" chamber.

@Novamiddleman Thing is, once you're caught in a...

2009-06-19T09:51:01.350-04:00

@Novamiddleman

Thing is, once you're caught in a lie, my willingnes to discourse with you is over.

I used to read your posts with respect and interest. Disagreement on occasion, but interest. Now that Wayward Son has caught you intentionally misquoting a poll, misrepresenting data and obfuscating the truth... well, I'll just skip over your posts. I just don't have the time to fact check everything you post, and the previous administration has sapped all my patience for truthiness.

There are legitimate arguments to be made on both sides of this issue, legitimate polls which can be cited, legitimate positions to be taken, CBO data to be mined, but you're not actually interested in that sort of discussion, are you?

You're only interested in screaming louder than anyone else. You're that three year old child we've all seen at the shopping mall, on the ground, flailing about, screaming that he wants ice cream right now.

Lying on a forum to shore up your ego? I wanna be angry, but what I'm actually feeling is... pity.

We have the support of the American people No you...

2009-06-19T09:19:28.938-04:00

We have the support of the American people

No you don't if you did there wouldn't be som much hemming and hawing. Politicians aren't stupid and are movtiaved by being reelected.

This is all pointless anyway. There isn't even an actual plan yet.

@ Nosimplehiway Great post! I agree 100%; If onl...

2009-06-19T04:11:09.890-04:00

@ Nosimplehiway

Great post! I agree 100%;

If only Reid,for once,would let the Republicans filibuster 24/7,and actually break a filibuster,we'd see the last of that vile device.

And if,for some reason,that plan fails,we can wait until October 15 when the healthcare bill will be voted on under the reconciliation process which requires a filibuster-proof total of 51 votes.(See my post above from 5:18 PM yesterday.)

'm a loyal Democrat. And I have had enough. I did...

2009-06-19T02:44:34.761-04:00

'm a loyal Democrat. And I have had enough.

I didn't work all those years, when we were in the wilderness, for Obama and Pelosi and Reid to piss it all away now out of fear that they won't be liked by people who will never like them. Screw your favorability numbers. Would you rather be liked or accomplished?

Every single issue that comes along Obama follows the same path: Formulate a lofty goal. Check around to find someone who opposes it, out of ignorance or just reflex. Meet them half way, thereby achieving only half the goal. Repeat until you have a plan that is 1/4th, 1/8th, 1/16th, 1/32nd of what we need.

The Democratic Party, no... I. I have campaigned on universal healthcare for years. Universal, national, single payer, full-bore, socialized medicine, Canadian-style healthcare. So Canadian it makes you want to roll the rim to win while watching Don Cherry from your Sheridan. We have finally clawed and fought and wheedled and dealed to get our party into a position of real power in Washington. We can do it. We must do it.

Let the GOP nutjobs who think national healthcare will put tracking chips in their skull or some nonsense scream about guv'mint. Let the careerist, bend with the wind Democrats complain. Let the corporatist bottoms, the starve the beast conservatives and the insurance lobbyist-pursuing whores bellow on Fox.

Because, in the end, as always, the truth just stands there and smiles modestly.

We have the votes to do it. We have the support of the American people. And it's the right thing to do.

No, we don't have 60 votes. We have 50%+1. That's all we need. Let the GOP filibuster. Let John Boehner stand on the floor of the Senate reading Gulliver's Travels for 10 hours or 100 hours or a 1000 hours or a million or whatever it takes. Let them stand there until November 2010 and explain why they'll shut down the government so the people of Alabama and Nebraska and South Carolina and Maine can keep dying when the insurance company refuses to pay for the treatment they need after years of accepting premiums. Because no amount of ad money, no amount of emails, no amount of talking head chatter can obscure the simple fact.

We have the votes. We have the support of the American people. And it's the right thing to do.

And anyone... anyone, Mr. President, Sen. Conrad, Sen. Boxer, Sen. Graham... who stands in opposition either through bellicose defiance or in the quiet, sly policy assassination called compromise, will be remembered for it. It can pass now, and you can be for it or against it. Or it can be passed years from now, and you can explain to your children why you delayed it, the way other politicians have had to explain their votes against social security or integration or the Union.

We have the votes. We have the support of the American people. And it's the right thing to do.

And if Obama fritters away this opportunity. Then, I'm done. Done. No more campaigning, no more voting. Done. Have fun getting elected in 2012 without this loyal Democrat.

And I don't think I'm alone.

I think the solution is very simple from my point ...

2009-06-19T01:59:58.603-04:00

I think the solution is very simple from my point of view. Either Obama rams thru SIGNIFICANT health care reform that covers almost everybody at a lower cost, or I donate to the GOP next time around. Time for the Dems to flex their muscles instead of whimping out one more time.

This plan is so deeply flawed that the numbers are...

2009-06-19T00:15:40.921-04:00

This plan is so deeply flawed that the numbers are shocking.

* It leaves 30 million uninsured. 39 million mostly young and healthy people get it (note: they don't really care that they are uninsured, most can afford to buy a cheap private plan but choose not to). However, CBO estimates 23 million WORKING people will lose coverage as a result of this plan. How will they vote next go around?

* The plan will cost around $180B a year when fully implemented 6 YEARS from now! Most people will see no change by 2010 or 2012. They will hear $1.6 T price tags and see no tangible change.

*$180B to cover a net 17 million people per year is ~$11,000 per person. A family of 4 can get private coverage that covers more stuff for $13,000. This is 350% more expensive than IT IS NOW!

* We could just buy private plans for ALL UNINSURED for about the same cost.

Do the math!

This is nothing close to universal coverage and it will crater an already exploding deficit. It gives so many subsidies to people who already have coverage that it will just encourage more overuse of services because people never feel the true price, the gov't does!

How does any of that cut costs? Costs will go up and we still leave 30 million MORE vulnerable people uninsured.

This is MADNESS!

you want to know why most people are moderates/lib...

2009-06-18T22:58:49.597-04:00

you want to know why most people are moderates/libertarians. Exaclty that reason. Most people don't want or need government and don't appreciate the government wasting their tax dollars.

That will win you 80% of the population. Now I am not a heartless bastard. The 20% shouldn't be left to fend for themselves. However reall effort should be made to reduce the behavior and the popular democratic tactic of throwing more and more money at the 20% is extremely frustrating for the 80%

Nova_middle_man, health costs follow the 80/20 rul...

2009-06-18T22:07:16.388-04:00

Nova_middle_man, health costs follow the 80/20 rule: 20% of the people account for 80% of the costs. This comes from catastrophic problems, like heart attacks or strokes. It's no different from how in 2001 a tiny minority of Americans, those living in or near New York, got almost all post-terrorism reconstruction money, or how in 2005 a tiny minority living in Louisiana got almost all post-hurricane reconstruction money.

"Limit the usage of ICU to say one week max." You...

2009-06-18T20:42:33.173-04:00

"Limit the usage of ICU to say one week max."

You're one sick person.

Ugh!

I agree, that was a disgusting comment by a disgusting person.

It is also ironic, since he is using the "government will control your health care" fear tactic, which his proposal is exactly that.

Funny how the right doesn't care if greedy corporations ration health care.

Who would you trust, someone with a motive to deny you that needed operation, or someone with no vested interest?

A very small share also contributes the majority o...

2009-06-18T20:39:42.144-04:00

A very small share also contributes the majority of tax dollars.

Why is it so difficult to see that since a tiny percentage controls the vast majority of the wealth then a small percentage will contribute the majority of tax revenue?

It is not unfair in the slightest.

"Limit the usage of ICU to say one week max." You...

2009-06-18T20:25:10.727-04:00

"Limit the usage of ICU to say one week max."

You're one sick person.

Ugh!

Another simple solution Limit the usage of ICU to...

2009-06-18T20:06:17.449-04:00

Another simple solution

Limit the usage of ICU to say one week max

http://ajrccm.atsjournals.org/cgi/content/full/165/6/750

Write this down I'm quoting look out :-p http://...

2009-06-18T20:03:30.199-04:00

Write this down

I'm quoting look out :-p

http://www.ahrq.gov/research/ria19/expendria.htm

Five percent of the population accounts for almost half (49 percent) of total health care expenses.
The 15 most expensive health conditions account for 44 percent of total health care expenses.
Patients with multiple chronic conditions cost up to seven times as much as patients with only one chronic condition.

Its like anything else in this country. Most of the country just wants to be left alone and a very small minority consumes the lions share of tax dollars. A very small share also contributes the majority of tax dollars.

Only in America

I still say we should do what the auto insurance companies do reward good behavior and punish bad behavior through premium prices.

Splashy, your numbers are wrong. According to the ...

2009-06-18T19:08:08.670-04:00

Splashy, your numbers are wrong. According to the US Census Bureau (see here, p. 28), 60% of Americans have employer-based health insurance, and another 8% don't but have an individually purchased private plan. Only 27% of Americans have a government-provided plan.

Placeholder, what you say about end of life medicine and premature babies doesn't square with health costs in other countries. The US has a very young population by first world standards. If end of life care were significant, then the highest health costs would appear in Japan; instead, Japan has very low health costs. The US does have an unusually high rate of babies born prematurely, due to its high teen pregnancy rate, but Canada and Britain are not doing much better, and still have half the per capita health costs of the US.

Placeholder said, "Also, there is the elephant in...

2009-06-18T17:18:21.437-04:00

Placeholder said,

"Also, there is the elephant in the living room that NO ONE will talk about: The enormous amount of money spent on two categories of health care. One is end-of-life medicine, where gigantic bills get run up to prolong people's lives by six months or a year. The other is premature and drug-addicted infants."

Nitpick: as you are no doubt aware, the "crack baby" scare turned out to be hugely exaggerated. I doubt very much money is actually spent on drug-addicted infants, although if you have any data on the matter, I'd love to see it.

Juris- It's my impression that the reconciliation...

2009-06-18T17:18:11.105-04:00

Juris-

It's my impression that the reconciliation process can be used but,as I had forgotten (sorry!),it doesn't come into effect until October 15:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/25/us/politics/25budget.html?scp=3&sq=reconciliation%20health%20care%20bill&st=cse

We may have to wait four months for a good bill.

Also,Marc Ambinder of Atlantic Magazine reports this today:"Meanwhile, sensing an opportunity, a group of centrist House Democrats and Republicans will hold a joint press conference today to formally oppose using budget reconciliation rules to pass the financing portion of reform."

I cannot help but feel that this will be just as b...

2009-06-18T16:51:04.228-04:00

I cannot help but feel that this will be just as big of a boondoggle as it was in '93. I hope that's not the case because I'm one of those 47 million uninsureds out there.

The health care industry doesn't want to change and most of congress is afraid to tick this powerful constituency off.

I actually dig Howard Dean's take on this. He has a new book out on the very topic of fixing health care. In fact, I wish they would let Dean and former Gov. Kitzhaber (D-OR), who is also an MD, let loose on the problem. I think we'd see some real policy come from that pairing.

As to your Kennedy reference: no one has really said this, but I suspect that is the reason Coleman is being encouraged to drag the MN race out. They're waiting for Kennedy (or Byrd) to die.

I think things will need to get much worse before enough Dems grow a pair. Right now, I don't believe there is the political will for buy-in. Health care will lay hemorrhaging on the floor of the halls of congress no matter what Obama does. I hope it doesn't render him impotent like it did Clinton.

Oh, and shout out for the Star Trek reference. Finally the odd numbered movie curse has been broken. Yet another reason I knew I liked Nate. Crunch numbers and prosper.

When will the Dems (as stated above) grow a pair a...

2009-06-18T16:41:44.906-04:00

When will the Dems (as stated above) grow a pair and shove this important legislation through. Obama seems content to just make sure he keeps a happy face on and not upset anyone. He can't keep smiling his way through an agenda. He needs to bring the fight to Congress. It's unfortunate, but that's just how American politics works right now.