Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Pick Your Poison, Arlen

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇 ...

2009-03-28T05:19:00.000-04:00

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇大眾論壇 plus論壇 080視訊聊天室情色視訊交友90739 美女交友-成人聊天室色情小說做愛成人圖片區豆豆色情聊天室 080豆豆聊天室小辣妹影音交友網台中情人聊天室桃園星願聊天室高雄網友聊天室新中台灣聊天室中部網友聊天室嘉義之光聊天室基隆海岸聊天室中壢網友聊天室南台灣聊天室南部聊坊聊天室台南不夜城聊天室南部網友聊天室屏東網友聊天室台南網友聊天室屏東聊坊聊天室雲林網友聊天室大學生BBS聊天室網路學院聊天室屏東夜語聊天室孤男寡女聊天室一網情深聊天室心靈饗宴聊天室流星花園聊天室食色男女色情聊天室真愛宣言交友聊天室情人皇朝聊天室上班族成人聊天室上班族f1影音視訊聊天室哈雷視訊聊天室 080影音視訊聊天室 38不夜城聊天室援交聊天室080 080哈啦聊天室台北已婚聊天室已婚廣場聊天室夢幻家族聊天室摸摸扣扣同學會聊天室 520情色聊天室 QQ成人交友聊天室免費視訊網愛聊天室愛情公寓免費聊天室拉子性愛聊天室柔情網友聊天室哈啦影音交友網哈啦影音視訊聊天室櫻井莉亞三點全露寫真集 123上班族聊天室尋夢園上班族聊天室成人聊天室上班族 080上班族聊天室 6k聊天室粉紅豆豆聊天室 080豆豆聊天網新豆豆聊天室 080聊天室免費音樂試聽流行音樂試聽免費aa片試看免費a長片線上看色情貼影片免費a長片本土成人貼圖站大台灣情色網台灣男人幫論壇 A圖網嘟嘟成人電影網火辣春夢貼圖網情色貼圖俱樂部台灣成人電影絲襪美腿樂園 18美女貼圖區柔情聊天網 707網愛聊天室聯盟台北69色情貼圖區 38女孩情色網台灣映像館波波成人情色網站美女成人貼圖區無碼貼圖力量色妹妹性愛貼圖區日本女優貼圖網日本美少女貼圖區亞洲風暴情色貼圖網哈啦聊天室美少女自拍貼圖辣妹成人情色網台北女孩情色網辣手貼圖情色網 AV無碼女優影片男女情色寫真貼圖 a片天使俱樂部萍水相逢遊戲區平水相逢遊戲區免費視訊交友90739 免費視訊聊天辣妹視訊 - 影音聊天網 080視訊聊天室日本美女肛交美女工廠貼圖區百分百貼圖區亞洲成人電影情色網台灣本土自拍貼圖網麻辣貼圖情色網好色客成人圖片貼圖區 711成人AV貼圖區台灣美女貼圖區筱萱成人論壇咪咪情色貼圖區 momokoko同學會視訊 kk272視訊情色文學小站成人情色貼圖區嘟嘟成人網嘟嘟情人色網 - 貼圖區免費色情a片下載台灣情色論壇成人影片分享免費視訊聊天區微風成人論壇 kiss文學區 taiwankiss文學區

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-16T04:47:00.000-05:00

520聊天室一夜情聊天室一夜情貼圖區一夜聊天室一葉晴貼圖區一葉晴貼影片區丁字褲女優丁字褲美女寫真丁字...

2009-01-07T02:19:00.000-05:00

520聊天室
一夜情聊天室
一夜情貼圖區
一夜聊天室
一葉晴貼圖區
一葉晴貼影片區
丁字褲女優
丁字褲美女寫真
丁字褲美女影片
人之初貼圖區
八國聯軍情色網
八國聯軍論壇
十七歲女孩貼影區
又又處女貼影區
下載a片
上班族聊天室
大老婆俱樂部
大波霸美女影片
大眾論壇
女同志聊天室
女郎俱樂部
女郎貼影區
女狼俱樂部
女學生內衣照
女優天堂貼圖
女優王國
女優盒子
女優貼片
女優貼圖
女優電影
女優寫真
女優影片
小老婆俱樂部
小老鼠論壇
小弟弟情色網
小弟弟貼圖區
小弟弟貼影片
小弟弟貼影片區
小弟弟貼影片網
小弟弟貼影區
小弟弟影片
小杜情色網
小妹妹貼影區
小高聊天室
小說論壇
小賤人貼影區
小瓢蟲情色論壇
小瓢蟲論壇
小護士偷拍網
小魔女自拍天堂貼圖區
小魔女自拍貼圖區
小魔女免費影片
小魔女貼圖區
小魔女貼影片
不色不進貼影區
不穿內衣
中部人聊天室
內衣秀
內衣模特兒
內衣模特兒寫真
內衣褲
天天情色
天天幹貼圖區
天天網遊論壇
天天論壇
天生名模貼圖區
天堂私服論壇
天堂情色
天堂情色網
夫妻聯誼俱樂部
少女內衣
手工內衣
日本av女優
日本av女優免費影片區
日本a片
日本女優
日本內衣
日本正妹
日本正妹照片
日本正妹影片
日本美女
日本美女圖庫
日本美女寫真集
日本偷拍
日本情色女優
日本辣美女優
日本模特兒寫真
日本學生妹
月光論壇
月宮俱樂部
月宮貼圖區
比基尼
比基尼女郎
比基尼內衣
比基尼泳裝
比基尼泳裝外拍
比基尼泳裝美女
比基尼泳裝美女的影片
比基尼泳裝美少女圖片
比基尼美女
比基尼美女的奶
比基尼辣妹
比基尼辣妹照片區
比基尼辣妹圖片
比基尼辣妹影片
比基尼線
水美眉
北部人聊天室
卡通aa片
卡通aa片免費看
卡通a片
卡通a片免費看
卡通美女遊戲
卡通貼圖區
可愛美眉
只有貼圖區
台中人聊天室
台中聊天室
台論論壇
台灣 kiss 倩色網貼圖區
台灣 kiss 情網貼圖區
台灣av女優
台灣a片
台灣a片王
台灣kiss情色文學
台灣kiss情色文學區
台灣kiss情色網
台灣女優
台灣自拍偷拍
台灣客棧電影貼圖區
台灣美女
台灣美女 kiss 情網貼圖區
台灣美女貼圖
台灣美女貼圖區
台灣美女電影
台灣美女圖
台灣美女寫真貼圖區
台灣香腸俱樂部
台灣偷拍
台灣情色
台灣情色貼圖
台灣情色網
台灣情色網綜合論壇
台灣情色論壇
台灣無限貼圖區
台灣貼圖區
台灣賓館偷拍
台灣論壇
台灣論壇女生遊戲
台灣論壇好玩遊戲區
台灣論壇遊戲區
巨乳女優
巨乳美女
布蘭妮貼圖區
平面模特兒
打工正妹
本土a片
本土女優
本土偷拍
正妹大學
正妹大學宅男社
正妹日報
正妹地圖
正妹百人斬
正妹自拍
正妹空姐寫真
正妹星球
正妹相簿
正妹美食地圖
正妹無名
正妹無名相簿
正妹無名相簿分享
正妹照片
正妹圖
正妹圖片
正妹圖片或照片
正妹網
正妹裸照
正妹影片
正妹餐廳
正妹牆
交友啦咧聊天室
交友聊天室
交友貼影區
伊莉論壇
同志聊天
同志聊天室
同志貼圖區
名模露點
成人a片
成人偷拍
成人情色
成人情色小說
成人情色文學
成人情色貼圖
成人情色貼圖區
成人聊天室
成人貼圖區
成人影片
成人影城
成人影音
成人影音城
成人論壇
有閒俱樂部
百分百貼圖區
米克情色網
米克綜合論壇
自拍a片
自拍偷拍
自拍偷拍成人影片
自拍偷拍貼圖
自拍偷拍貼圖區

I don't know what the Pennsylvania law is on it, b...

2009-01-05T14:27:00.000-05:00

I don't know what the Pennsylvania law is on it, but if he starts getting a hard time in the Republican primary, he might start trying to seek the Republican AND the Democratic endorsements at the same time (while keeping the option to run Independent anyway).

In upstate New York, one particularly popular town supervisor managed to get himself the Democratic, Republican, and Liberal nominations back in the 1980s IIR. (I think the Libertarians and Conservatives both ran token candidates.) However, I've heard some states have laws which prevent a candidate from being listed on the ballot by multiple parties.

Late to the party (again...)I think that Specter c...

2009-01-05T12:24:00.000-05:00

Late to the party (again...)

I think that Specter cannot survive his primary challenge in 2010. In the Philadelphia suburbs, many people who were moderate Republicans have switched registrations (one of the reasons why Democrats erased a deficit of 240,000 registered voters vs. Republicans between 2004 and 2008). As a result of the flight of moderates from the party, the PA Republican party has moved further to the right over the last four years.

Because Pennsylvania primaries are closed, Specter has lost a very significant number of primary voters, and is now much more vulnerable to losing the 2010 primary to a challenger to his right.

If Pat Toomey were to run in the primary, I would call Toomey the favorite to win the primary. However, if Specter were to survive the primary, he would be the favorite to win the general election.

I think that Specter will retire in order to permit another moderate Republican to have a shot at winning the primary (perhaps his son Shanin).

Specter hasn't faced a serious general election ch...

2009-01-04T22:48:00.000-05:00

Specter hasn't faced a serious general election challenge since 1992--when Lynn Yeakel came within 2 points of him in the famous "Year of the Woman." I agree with the posters above who point out that he's more worried about a primary challenge.

He's going to need to feel that voting for the Free Choice Act is something that people in the swing and Republican base areas of the state--the "T," Altoona/Johnstown, etc.--want him to vote for, if he's going to feel secure enough to cast a ballot with the labor movement.

Specter probably could do try the same thing that ...

2009-01-04T11:07:00.000-05:00

Specter probably could do try the same thing that Joe Lieberman did in CT if he loses the primary -- run as an independent.

It might even give him MORE appeal to moderates of both parties if he denounced the "partisan politics of both sides" and tried to run straight down the middle. He'd probably get many conservative Democrats as well as moderate Republicans.

And if he split the Republican vote and still lost, then good riddance as far as he's concerned. Just like Lyin-Joe he's in it for himself. And if the damn primary voters screw him out of his seat, he can screw the party right back!

It worked for Lieberman, and it could work for Specter too.

All sitting U.S. Senators have access to plenty of campaign cash and Specter's favorability rating would probably NOT be hurt by running as an Independent.

It would certainly be an interesting race. Whether he'd win would depend a lot on who the Democrats nominated to oppose him.

But, this entire speculation is academic. Specter is going to vote along with all the other right-wing Republicans and oppose card check. At best he'll abstain. No way will he buck the other Republicans and vote FOR it no matter what lobbying he receives from unions. He'll stab them in the back of course, because that will mute any primary challenge he might receive.

Then he'll try to weasel his vote for the next 2 years, which is what he does best. He's a sleezy-lying weasel who pretends to be a moderate but in the end is just as willing to go along with his party as Mitch McConnell or Saxby Chambliss.

Nichlemn said..."I don't get it with primary voter...

2009-01-03T02:50:00.000-05:00

Nichlemn said...
"I don't get it with primary voters."

Simple. Primary voters are the most dedicated, and the non-dedicated voter stays home, thinking 'It's only the primary.' The most dedicated are usually the 'non-moderate' wing of the party - the most conservative of the Rs, and the most liberal of the Ds.

Also, the radicals of all political parties are more interested in ideological purity within the party than winning. They believe that with ideological purity, there is little question as to what the party stands for, and with the 'proper message', they will win the next election, because 'how can any thinking person not see the TRUTH of our ideology?' thinking. This type of thinking is more prevalent in the Rs than Ds in the US, but it also exists in the Democratic Party.

This type of thinking also exists in other political parties - any of the various Communist parties that exist (or existed) throughout the world (Stalin/Trotsky anyone?); the Fascists, especially the Nazis; the religio-political parties of any stripe; etc., etc.

Specter is also popular among research institution...

2009-01-03T02:38:00.000-05:00

Specter is also popular among research institutions like the many Universities across Pennsylvania. He has an excellent track record for supporting funding of scientific research. That was one of the main reasons he was the lone Republican to receive my vote in 2004.

During the 2008 MD-1 Republican primary. In MD-1Cd...

2009-01-03T02:26:00.000-05:00

During the 2008 MD-1 Republican primary. In MD-1Cd-which is a strong Republican district held by Moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrist- The Club for Growth Republicans helped Conservate Republican State Senator Andy Harris from the Baltimore Suburbs to defeat Gilchrist in the primary. Harris lost in the General Election to an Eastern Shore area District Attorney. Frank Kravotil.

I don't get it with primary voters. It's as if the...

2009-01-02T22:18:00.000-05:00

I don't get it with primary voters. It's as if they'd rather have a pure heretic to their ideology than a modest apostate. Or else many voters just aren't very bright at voting tactically. For instance, Laffey would have had virtually no chance in the 2006 RI Senate general election, so a vote for him was tantamount to a vote for the Democrats.

You must remember that it is the conservative Repu...

2009-01-02T22:06:00.000-05:00

You must remember that it is the conservative Republicans who vote in primaries out of proportion to the party's total membership. It is the liberal Democrats who vote in primaries out of proportion to the party's total membership.

If the PA Republican party has bled some members to the Democrats, it certainly was not the conservative wing of the party that left, thus the (already) overrepresented (for primary voting) conservative wing will be even stronger in the 2010 Republican primary.

Specter probably would win a 2010 general election, but he has to make it there first. Since he was almost knocked off in the 2004 primary, when the Republican party in PA was larger and had more moderates in the party, AND the political environment was more favorable to moderate to conservative (vs. moderate to liberal) candidates, to me it looks like Specter is facing very poor odds in the 2010 Republican primary, much different than in 2004. The only thing I think could save him is an extremely bitter and divisive battle of three or more extremists to his right, splitting the R primary vote. He'd need about 35% of the primary vote then, and would probably face a much easier general. I don't think the conservative Rs will allow such a divisive primary, but rather pick one R to face Specter to increase their opportunity to win the primary, then try the usual R dirty tricks to win the general election.

I recently came across your blog and have been rea...

2009-01-02T21:55:00.000-05:00

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Deborah

Term Life Insurance

nkpolitics, I will only observe that people have r...

2009-01-02T20:03:00.000-05:00

nkpolitics, I will only observe that people have repeatedly considered Specter vulnerable in general elections, only to be repeatedly proven wrong. If he wins the Republican primary, no-one should bet against him.
Actually, Specter almost lost to a female Democrat back in the early 90's.

Well, looking at D's comment, there is that Claren...

2009-01-02T20:00:00.000-05:00

Well, looking at D's comment, there is that Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill incident. If it wasn't for Specter badgering Anita Hill, Thomas may have never made it to the Supremes.

Specter started out in politics as a Democrat. Ma...

2009-01-02T19:58:00.000-05:00

Specter started out in politics as a Democrat. Maybe it's time for him to return to the Democratic Party.

Anyone but Specter. I'd vote for a ham sandwich be...

2009-01-02T19:06:00.000-05:00

Anyone but Specter. I'd vote for a ham sandwich before I would vote for that weasel specter.

Specter's years of moderate press conference lip s...

2009-01-02T18:54:00.000-05:00

Specter's years of moderate press conference lip service followed by lackey devotion to the Bushies at vote time has worn thin here. He is going to face formidable and energized democrats determined to oust him.
That and his serious health issues leave him virtually doomed.

@coolstarFooling us? I don't know about that, alt...

2009-01-02T18:14:00.000-05:00

@coolstar

Fooling us? I don't know about that, although I will concede that he's siphoned a very liberal voter from the Democratic base due to his tendencies of moderation, even if when push comes to shove he is a Republican. No person with a decent respect for a progressive Supreme Court, for example, looks at his handling of the Thomas nomination as a "good" thing.

However, unlike Sen. Casey of PA, a Democrat, Sen. Specter votes for embryonic stem cell research and other progressive measures often blocked by a "pro-life" label. He has shown himself an ally to unions and he's never been a truly firm supporter of the hawkish, pro-torture White House of the past eight years.

What really sold me on Specter, however, was his seeming ability to always vote in line with what is best for his constituency rather than ideology. For example, when USAir pulled out of Pittsburgh despite boatloads of federal and state funding, he promised that they would never get any more favors from him. A little while later, when USAir was seeking gates and Philadelphia International, Specter kept to his word and refused them. Its that kind of stand-up mentality and regard for his own conscious that cause a lot of Pennsylvanians to highly regard Specter, I've found.

I second nkpolitics and Benjamin here: If Specter ...

2009-01-02T17:58:00.000-05:00

I second nkpolitics and Benjamin here: If Specter jumps ship he's assured reelection here. And coolstar, many PA Dems just aren't that liberal. Especially outside Philly.

Rank and file Republican voters are realizing that...

2009-01-02T16:41:00.000-05:00

Rank and file Republican voters are realizing that their leaders have led them astray for the past N years. They will want someone who is part of the solution, not part of the problem. With over a year until the primary campaign starts, there is some time for people to see some results before they go vote.

Also, the Republicans in PA will want to nominate someone who can win in the general. Choosing someone more conservative than Specter will not help them.

The Dems could offer him a spot on their ticket if...

2009-01-02T16:25:00.000-05:00

The Dems could offer him a spot on their ticket if he gets primaried out.

Alternatively, they could water down on EFCA to require more then a simple majority to form a union by collecting cards. If the vote is this close now, a compromise still maintaining a majority vote for secret ballot elections but allowing card check to work with a supermajority may pick up the needed votes, depending on how high the threshold was.

Michael is exactly right (stated as one who spent ...

2009-01-02T16:22:00.000-05:00

Michael is exactly right (stated as one who spent 14 years living in PA during specter's tenure). And Benjamin is mostly right: only I'd state it as Specter has been FOOLING PA democrats for a very long time. Specter always gives the APPEARANCE of being liberal, until push comes to shove and he either votes with the other Repugs or refuses to speak out against their atrocities, or both. The politician he most reminds me of is Howard Baker during the Watergate hearings.

If Specter loses the primary, he could always pull...

2009-01-02T15:24:00.000-05:00

If Specter loses the primary, he could always pull a Lieberman and run in the general as an independent.

If the Dems really need his vote, they could promise to to run a strong candidate against him.

It's time for the moderate Republicans. e.g. Spect...

2009-01-02T15:18:00.000-05:00

It's time for the moderate Republicans. e.g. Spectre, Snowe, etc. to join the Dems, just as Phil "The Weasel" Graham and Ben "Nightwhores" Campbell did in reverse. That way they can avoid their primary problems and sit comfortably with the Blue Dogs.