Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Projects 269 Electoral Votes Even With Six-P...

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2009-10-08T02:57:49.344-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:57:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:57:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T21:45:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T07:28:00.000-05:00

yes

2008-10-16T15:20:00.000-04:00

yes

Who do you want to run your country? You want a s...

2008-10-06T04:24:00.000-04:00

Who do you want to run your country? You want a statesmen running things, that's who. Everytime a Republican uses the word elite like its a bad word, I cringe. Why do they do that?

Elite (also spelled Élite) is taken originally from the Latin, eligere, "to elect". The position of an elite at the top of the social strata almost invariably puts it in a position of leadership. So you want the elite to run our country. By definition!!! Who else?

There are farmers. Sure, we need farmers. We need men that understand how things grow, the best pesticides to use, how genetically enhanced food will eventually start to effect our physical evolution, how to clean water, how to irrigate, how to make dry areas green, how to effectively fertilize without having any ill affects on local water systems. How to thoughtfully bring the grow areas closer to market so that we save on energy and travel costs. We need farmers. We need smart farmers. But we don't need them to run the country.

We need dentists and doctors . We need people who have spent their years learning to keep our bodies healthy and save lives. Dentists and doctors are essential to prevent the spread of massive disease and thereby head off all sorts of economic and environmental disasters. But we don't need one to run our country.

We need teachers. Someone must gather the mistakes of the past, and teach those lessons to us as children, so we can build on that information and offer a better life to our kids. We need teachers to give us basic skills like reading and math and language in order to function effectively in society. We need teachers to introduce us to imagination, art, and music. And at the very least, we need teachers to watch the kids for a few hours so as parents, you can have some sanity. But we don't need a teacher to run the country.

We need builders. Someone has to know how to make brick and mortar, how to create a home, how to make it safe, bring in plumbing and electricity, and construct a family's home base to return to generation after generation. But we don't need a builder to run our country.

We need sheriffs. Someone has to stop those with mad cow disease from killing, raping, stealing, and swindling the rest of us. But we don't need that sheriff to run the country. We need him to run the legal enforcement system.

We need generals. We need those who clearly see chess-like decisions 30 moves ahead and can instill bravery and duty in their men. But we don't need those generals, skilled in the art of war and destruction, to run our country.

We need soldiers. In a time of crisis, we need them to save and rescue. In a time of fear and intrusion and attack, we need those who will rise and defend us. We need those who will follow orders and trust in their commanders to see the bigger picture. But we don't need them to put down their weapons and lead the country.

Leaders should be leaders. Those who listen and engage those around them. Those who amalgamate and gather information. Those who surround themselves with uninterested parties. And if there are special interest people in our leader's inner circle, let them be the type of people who work for the greater good. A leader should be someone who can compromise and negotiate. Those who understand job creation. Someone who is compassionate. We need a leader who can analyze data. Someone who makes friends and allies. A leader should be able to keep the cost of living down. Our leaders should be those who choose peace and can and will build a framework to keep it. Although I am more spiritual than religious, I feel that those who are pious and moral would make the best leaders. Answering to a higher power is always a good motivation for making the best decisions. Leaders should be hopeful and undamaged. We need someone who is as whole emotionally as possible, not someone who could easily have been deeply affected by being kept in a hole.

Leaders should be leaders. Those who have peaceful homes and respect the constitution of family and marriage. Those who are engaging and endearing. Those without bloodlust. Those who do not wish to instigate (audio of McCain on wanting to be where the guns were firing to be inserted here), We need those who deliberate. Those who know its easier to say no, than to say yes, but still chose to say yes. We need problem solvers, peacekeepers, those who can hire well (Rick Davis et al data here). Those who are well informed and instill loyalty. That is to say, if they don't know something, those closest to our leader make sure they find it out, and quickly, almost before anyone else.

Leaders should be leaders. Those who value education above all. Not someone who puts down anyone with an education. A leader of this country should remember the tired, the helpless, the poor. Our leader should understand the incredibly valuable commodity that our country has to offer, opportunity. Our leaders should hold that opportunity dear and do all they can to keep it accessible, abundant, and contemporary. Our leaders should understand that upholding the availability of opportunity is the best export we have and that channeling that opportunity into the green job market would be for the good of our planet. Our leader should be someone who can get the world to join us in our efforts and maybe even recruit those allies to help us fund worldwide green research and implementation. Our leaders should walk the walk and drive a green car to be a good example for the nation. And when our economy is in trouble, we need someone who will sound the alarm, early on (see footage of Obama) and not try to lull the masses (see video of McCain).

Leaders should be leaders. Those who are willing to admit and point out when others are right. Those who can look you in the eye. We need someone you can innately trust. Those who get involved the minute there is a problem, and start working toward a solution (Bush continued to read to the kindergartners on 9/11, McCain stayed in NY two extra days when the economy crashed and did not participate in negotiations). Our leader should know basic geography. For instance, Spain is in Europe, not in Latin America, not in Mexico, and not in our hemisphere. Iraq doesn't border Pakistan.

Leaders should be born leaders. Those who can unite minorities and raise them up to the level of everyone else. The history of the United States is fraught with mistakes, massive slavery of a people, annihilations of the native Americans, persecution of the native Hawaiians, disregard for the native American Eskimos. This legacy must no longer be passed on.

If you look at all the living ex-Presidents, you will see that the 4 or 8 years really age them. They almost seem to age quicker than the rest of us. Maybe its the stress, the lack of sleep, or the critics, but each time the office seems to take its toll. We need someone who can take the ageing element out of being President, by starting out younger.

We need heroes. We do. We treasure them. We look up to them. We respect them. But in a leader, we need someone who will use their reach to gather solutions, not reach out to their minions and encourage them to "kill the other guy." (See different messages that went out from both campaigns. Barack asking for suggestions, McCain asking his camp to continue to slander and defame the other guy.)

Can you honestly say that McCain is this leader?

269. Is this why McCain is going to try to get so...

2008-10-03T09:11:00.000-04:00

269. Is this why McCain is going to try to get something going (picking off an EV) in ME rather that going for broke in MI?

I notice you list Alaska with the Big Sky states i...

2008-10-03T02:14:00.000-04:00

I notice you list Alaska with the Big Sky states instead with the Pacific, where it belongs. Alaska is two time zones away from the Mountain time zone (Big Sky country), and it has more coastline on the Pacific Ocean than the rest of the country put together. Please learn some geography. Other than that, great site.

I don't relate to the optimism you feel regarding ...

2008-10-02T17:42:00.000-04:00

I don't relate to the optimism you feel regarding a tie, Sean. As I read Nate's post,and other posts on the same topic elsewhere, a tie was still somewhat of a toss-up. Consider the number of states where the sole representative is (or is expected to be) a Democrat but the state is expected to go red in the big race. Consider the fact that Blue is, generally, concentrated in the larger states (getting CA, NY, IL, PA... with the exception being Texas) and red tends to get most of the smaller states (though the Dems pick up a couple in the Northeast). This plays against Obama in the tie case.

I'm not saying BHO loses the tie case -- and Biden certainly doesn't, which means at least no Palin -- but I wouldn't put good money on his odds of winning it that way.

@AndreasF"Terrorist attack before Nov. 4 - not lik...

2008-10-02T17:40:00.000-04:00

@AndreasF

"Terrorist attack before Nov. 4 - not likely as Bin Laden and his compadres rather see Obama in the WH than Old Mac as they believe him to be "softer" than the old warrior - has to do with cultural attitudes."

Don't kid yourself. Bin Laden will attack the United States whenever and wherever he can.

And as for "softer": that echoes Bin Laden's supposed preference of Kerry over Bush. In point of fact, Bin Laden couldn't have been granted a better adversary than W.

Bin Laden wants Americans on Arab soil. Easier to kill Americans and easier to recruit Islamic terrorists. W obliges. Bin Laden wants a relatively safe geographic base along the P/A border. W obliges. Bin Laden wants toss out secular Mideast governments like the old Iraq. W obliges. Bin Laden wats to bankrupt the West. W obliges. From where I sit, looks to me like Bin Laden should be pulling for more of the same. And more of the same is going to be McCain, not Obama.

server problems again today Nate is too popular......

2008-10-02T17:06:00.000-04:00

server problems again today

Nate is too popular...

damm fanboys...

Warren Buffett is 78 years old....The richest man ...

2008-10-02T14:49:00.000-04:00

Warren Buffett is 78 years old....

The richest man in the world....

Lives a quiet life in an old house in Omaha far from Washington and NYC....

Would have the largest conflict of interest re his stock holdings in the history of the world....

You tell me, using Nate's methods -- what are the odds of someone with those stats wanting to be Sec. of the Treasury?

76 gazillion to 1, perhaps?

In an analogy that perhaps only Nate, and other ba...

2008-10-02T14:48:00.000-04:00

In an analogy that perhaps only Nate, and other baseball purists can appreciate, Obama's current electoral outlook reminds me of the squirming discomfort I felt when the 1999 Red Sox handed the ball to knuckleball replacement closer Tim Wakefield with "comfortable" 3 run leads in the 9th inning.

It's the epitome of "cautious optimism," to say the least. Don't forget that just three weeks ago Nate opined that the only reason Obama should maintain a ground game here in North Carolina is to help out Kay Hagan. Now it's a toss-up. Who knows what the next 4 1/2 weeks will bring.

Anybody have a link to the AZ state poll?

2008-10-02T13:52:00.000-04:00

Anybody have a link to the AZ state poll?

Started out for McCain, but the man made me sick w...

2008-10-02T13:51:00.000-04:00

Started out for McCain, but the man made me sick with his post convention lies. Enough. As for Obama, yes, lesser of two evils, so....Watchout for stumbles by joe tonight. Palin is no pushover. Hope not, but can never rule out Joe putting his foot in it. Between now and election day (mail in ballots are already on stream), turnout is the key for Obama. He needs maybe a 0.5-1 pt cushon to cover Bradley. Great site, will stay with you guys. first time post. Enjoying this election season.

Not going anywhere. Not rooting for failure. Just ...

2008-10-02T13:49:00.000-04:00

Not going anywhere. Not rooting for failure. Just saying that a liberal neophyte will overreach badly with the backing of a strong Democratic Congress, and there will be a lot of bad policies enacted that are knee-jerk reactions to try and swing the pendulum hard left from currently being hard right instead of resting in the center.

I've never rooted for this country to fail. But I have rooted fervently for the failure of bad politicians.

Charles K.

I'm hardly pro-McCain because I think so ill of Obama. If I were to rate them on a 1-100 scale, I put Barack at about a 5 - McCain at about an 11.

It's that bad to me. Truly, the lesser of two evils, but I don't really want to see McCain/Palin in power either.

takestock said... "Latest Arizona State AZ poll ha...

2008-10-02T13:48:00.000-04:00

takestock said...
"Latest Arizona State AZ poll has McCain only up 7"

I'd love to see Obama do a rally in AZ just to stick it to McCain. Then go visit TX and GA. And Alaska if he has time.

Wouldn't that be something! What a picture that would be, Obama drawing BIG crowds in McCain's home state. I think if Obama campaigned there, that may just make it competitive.

Mason Dixon Poll VA:Obama 45McCain 48Interesting t...

2008-10-02T13:47:00.000-04:00

Mason Dixon Poll VA:

Obama 45
McCain 48

Interesting that last Mason Dixon Poll was LV and they switched now to RV. Most pollsters switch from RV to LV as the election gets closer noth the opposite.

Calculating numbers for the "blue sky" Obama lands...

2008-10-02T13:46:00.000-04:00

Calculating numbers for the "blue sky" Obama landslide, I notice two sources have not been explicitly mentioned:

1) That single EV in NE. I figure Obama will pick that up long before some of the more exotic wins, like SC or AR.

2) Arizona. From what I've read, McCain's support here is a mile wide & barely an inch deep. Once it's clear that McCain's chances are toast -- say Obama is up 5+ in IN, MO & NC -- I wouldn't be surprised if there is a grass-roots rebellion against McCain in AZ. The Republican party there sits on their hands, the rank-&-file decide to either cross to Obama, for a third party choice (who else is on the ballot there?) or just stay home.

Hmm. Adding both of these to the last figure I saw above (421), the ceiling now becomes 432, with 397 a far more plausible number. (Sorry, I don't buy into all of the pickups in the southern states.)

And to point out the human side of this race, this must be taking a physical & emotional toll on McCain. He's 72, suffered as a POW, & currently has some medical issues. If he loses, I hope there's someone there to offer him support -- writing as just one human being about another.

(As for Palin, while I feel sorry that she sucks at campaigning on a national level, my concern for her ends there.)

Geoff

Obama has a greater chance of flipping GA than McC...

2008-10-02T13:45:00.000-04:00

Obama has a greater chance of flipping GA than McCain does of winning NM.

NATERahm Emmanuel is on MSNBC & just 'mentioned' t...

2008-10-02T13:44:00.000-04:00

NATE

Rahm Emmanuel is on MSNBC & just 'mentioned' that he was also at the Cubs game last night....

is Rahm already actively campaigning for the 'open' Obama senate seat in IL as of 1/20/09 ???

MattW,Couldn't he put his investments into some so...

2008-10-02T13:43:00.003-04:00

MattW,

Couldn't he put his investments into some sort of blind trust or something? I mean surely Paulson had similar issues, even if on a much smaller scale.

My point was, curernt investment activities aside, would Buffet be qualified to be Treasury Sec? When you find the right person, you find a way to make it work, assuming of course that Buffet would want to be bothered with the position to begin with.

To quote Kodos from the Simpsons: "Set grid co-ord...

2008-10-02T13:43:00.002-04:00

To quote Kodos from the Simpsons: "Set grid co-ordinates for BOB DOLE!"

That's exactly where McCain is headed, at least in terms of election night results.

I think there is a new KY poll coming out today. ...

2008-10-02T13:43:00.001-04:00

I think there is a new KY poll coming out today. I would not be surprised to see the race here within 10 points.