Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is T-Paw Taking One for the Team?

In Europe, party and individual are intertwined. A...

2009-05-11T23:50:00.000-04:00

In Europe, party and individual are intertwined. A bad politician hurts the party and vice versa. In America,this link is almost non-existent because of personality politics and the two parties ideologies are so close together.
Nevertheless, this party-personality link is perhaps closer in Massachusetts than in say Iowa?
Nate Silver is brilliant statistician perhaps it is time to examine the party-personality link across state and across toime?
Perhaps, this will answe the question is T-Paw taking one for the team?

Is Franken pulling Pawlenty down? No I don't think...

2009-05-11T08:21:00.000-04:00

Is Franken pulling Pawlenty down? No I don't think so. Pawlenty's actions and behavior is pulling him down. The longer he particpates in the obstruction, hopefully the deeper he goes!

And Smoking Asses is Ass Rider....

2009-05-06T17:24:00.000-04:00

And Smoking Asses is Ass Rider....

haha "Alright, I'll do a damn lot-count."

2009-05-06T17:05:00.000-04:00

haha "Alright, I'll do a damn lot-count."

@beavis "Foghorn Stiffy" is none other than the c...

2009-05-06T16:31:00.000-04:00

@beavis

"Foghorn Stiffy" is none other than the chronic coward, Smoking Aces. Check the second on the list. The first one listed is most of the Smoking Aces posts, along with Average Citizen and a few other early names.

The second was Smoking Ace's [botched] attempt to hide under the pseudonym "Donald" and then went "Stiffy".

The "Nate Silver" and "Long Dong Silver" are recent one-shot accounts, with the former having been just used as "Blade" to harass "Joshua Grossman", the newest contributor to the the site.

Maybe the people that claimed that Smoking Aces is actually Mule Rider, or at least one of the Mule Riders, were onto something? *shrug*

Why are people complaining about not having 2 Sena...

2009-05-06T16:15:00.000-04:00

Why are people complaining about not having 2 Senators?

Illinois and Arizona went without full representation for nearly 2 years during the last Presidential campaigns.

The only time Obama or McCain showed up to vote or perform any Senatorial duties is when they thought it would help their campaigns.

I really have to wonder why Mule Rider and all his...

2009-05-06T16:08:00.000-04:00

I really have to wonder why Mule Rider and all his personalities are not locked up. It is pretty sad that he feels the need to sock puppet Nate, and post as Long Dong Silver to give himself some positive comments.

He must be a sad and lonely person.

*************
Pawlenty probably thinks that the Republican party is doing well and that this will increase his chances in 2012.

Appealling to the 20% backwash of America seems to be the goal of the Republicans.

One thing to add to the commentary on how vocal Fr...

2009-05-06T14:38:00.000-04:00

One thing to add to the commentary on how vocal Franken should be on this: he does have an ally in Klobuchar. She has been on talk TV quite a lot vocalising her frustration with having to do 2 jobs in the Senate. Her increased workload doesn't come with any increased pay, however, which is an issue that resonates with female voters - who outnumber male MN voters. Given that she has set shifting deadlines thus far, but is now saying July 4 is her final deadline before she starts raising hell back home to get Franken seated, I think Al can safely join in with her at that time - after a state SC verdict but before any fed appeals process can get underway. Norm can still appeal at the fed level even if Pawlenty signs the cert, anyway, so Coleman loses no rights. If Pawlenty wants to escape that kind of constant barrage, he needs to abide by Klobuchar's informal rules.
-Jeff

billbg, That was an omission, connecting the dots...

2009-05-06T14:11:00.000-04:00

billbg,

That was an omission, connecting the dots between a statewide action and a statewide election. However you also left out the statewide angle, which is more than a little implied in the whole subject.

Is there that much need to keep splitting hairs about it without acknowledging your own? ;)

priscianus jr... As I already noted, Jen was corre...

2009-05-06T14:07:00.000-04:00

priscianus jr... As I already noted, Jen was correct to say: "The first chance voters state-wide had the chance to boot [Harris] in 2006 they did."

I never claimed otherwise.

What I said was that GeorgeQPublic was wrong when he asserted "the voters booted her butt right out as soon as they had the chance."

Unless you believe the citizens in Florida's 13th congressional district are not voters, of course.

OK billbg, try this. Jen is entirely correct in st...

2009-05-06T13:50:00.000-04:00

OK billbg, try this. Jen is entirely correct in stating that "the voters booted her [Katherine Harris's] butt right out as soon AS SOON AS THEY HAD THE CHANCE," because as long as she was running for the House in the very Republican 13th Congressional District of Florida there WAS NO CHANCE of defeating her. Only with her run for US Senate in 2006 did that chance finally arrive. The voters of the sunny state of Florida flocked to the polls and exercised their franchise. Bye bye Katherine Harris.

As a Minnesotan, I can tell you, T-Paw is a party ...

2009-05-06T13:23:00.000-04:00

As a Minnesotan, I can tell you, T-Paw is a party hack who tries to come off as a moderate...pretty much like Coleman. He came to power at the height of neo-con popularity on a platform of no tax hikes EVER. He has essentially shifted the burden from those who can most afford it, to those who can least afford it by refusing to raise state taxes, and cutting state aid everywhere else, so it's up to cities and counties to raise taxes, and of course the taxes they have the power to levy are borne more heavily by those who don't have the money to pay for them. Under his tenure, we have gone from a progressive to a regressive tax structure in MN when all taxes an dfees are factored in.

But he avoids getting his hands dirty, he is never the one to raise the taxes or do anything controversial. He desperately wants to look like the guy who holds the line on tax increases, even if that means a bridge has to fall down and schools have to close, because unless it's a direct one to one cause and effect, voters don't see it. He got re-elected by the skin of his teeth in 2006 simply because his opponent made a last minute gaffe, and even then he barely squeaked by.

What matters to Pawlenty is that whatever he wants to do, he can lay claim to being someone who held the line on taxes for 8, 10, 12 or however many years he holds this role. I think to the extent that he will help out the Republican party, it's because that's his ideology...he is still a believer in the failed trickle down economic theory, he knows there are plenty of true believers, and he knows the way to power is to keep on the good side of people with money, while trying to look like a friend to the little guy (because let's face it, your average voter is going to hear that he keeps taxes low and isn't going to pay much attention to the fact that his "tax cuts" are simply shifting the liability to where it doesn't belong.

So to the extent that he is helping out the party one more time, I think he is actually doing what he needs to do in order to not be seen as too partisan. Because after all, Mark Ritchie, a Democrat, hasn't signed that certificate either. It's been determined that until all contests in state courts are exhausted, it's not time to seat the new Senator. It sucks, but such is life. Pawlenty minimizes harm to his brand if he stays within the letter of the law here...he has mostly stayed out of it, and therefore, I don't think it has ANYTHING to do with the Senate contest if his ratings are going down.

The reason for his declining numbers is that we are in tough times, and his no new taxes schtick is getting tired. As more people need to rely on government services just to get by these days, more are realizing that by holding the line on taxes, it's forcing cuts to these services which hey, are essential after all! In fairly robust economic times, Pawlenty could pull this off...now he's been at the helm for over 6 years, and thins have gotten steadily worse, yet he has not changed his tune. People are now looking for someone who will be flexible and adapt to the times, they're no longer looking for inflexibility. And THAT is what will cost him his political future, unless a strong recovery coincides with the next election cycle in which he runs for something.

Jen wrote: "The first chance voters state-wide had...

2009-05-06T12:42:00.000-04:00

Jen wrote: "The first chance voters state-wide had the chance to boot [Harris] in 2006 they did."

That much is true. But GeorgeQPublic never mentioned "state-wide" voters.

Actually, it does. Katherine Harris won in 2002 an...

2009-05-06T12:18:00.000-04:00

Actually, it does. Katherine Harris won in 2002 and 2004 in a very Republican district. The first chance voters state-wide had the chance to boot her in 2006 they did.

Jen asked: "What pray tell happened to the esteeme...

2009-05-06T11:54:00.000-04:00

Jen asked: "What pray tell happened to the esteemed Ms. Harris in 2006?"

In 2006, Harris ran for U.S. Senate and was crushed by Bill Nelson.

Please note, however, that this does not support GeorgeQPublic's false assertion that "the voters booted her butt right out as soon as they had the chance."

Which was the point I was making.

@Markymark: your interpretation is also supported...

2009-05-06T11:22:00.000-04:00

@Markymark: your interpretation is also supported by data from Alexa. FiveThirtyEight.com reached a huge peak of traffic around election time. It then sagged off quite a lot, but over the past few months has regained the level it attained in September, which was a pretty good level.

So FiveThirtyEight.com is doing pretty darn well, as still essentially a one-man show. What I look forward to is a remaking of the site with more features and good writers. Sean Quinn seems to have faded away.

Nate needs a couple of really good and prolific analyst-writers, someone with his type of skills (quant and verbal) but perhaps with different interests and skewed more toward the right of the political spectrum.

This blog is here to stay. We're looking for the next big changes.

GROG said ... We're not all like that. These are ...

2009-05-06T11:20:00.000-04:00

GROG said ...

We're not all like that. These are just a couple of idiots trying to stir everyone up.

It wouldn't surprise me if the goof behind Foghorn/Long Dong/"Nate" has never filled out a ballot in his life. He posts as a thin caricature of a "wingnut".

GeorgeQPublic wrote: "[Katherine Harris] drank the...

2009-05-06T11:19:00.000-04:00

GeorgeQPublic wrote: "[Katherine Harris] drank the Republican KoolAid for the Bush team...and the voters booted her butt right out as soon as they had the chance."

You might want to do a little fact checking.

In 2002, she was elected U.S. Representative for Florida's 13th congressional district. She was re-elected in 2004.

Both times, she won by a 10% margin._______________________________

I noticed you stopped tracking her electoral career in 2004. What pray tell happened to the esteemed Ms. Harris in 2006?

GeorgeQPublic wrote: "[Katherine Harris] drank the...

2009-05-06T11:10:00.000-04:00

Nate wrote: "Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has t...

2009-05-06T10:39:00.000-04:00

Nate wrote: "Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has thus far refused to sign an election certificate..."

It would be illegal for Pawlenty to sign the election certificate at this time.

MN election statutes forbid it, as was confirmed by a recent MN Supreme Court opinion.

Al Franken is keeping busy while he waits for his ...

2009-05-06T10:32:00.000-04:00

Al Franken is keeping busy while he waits for his Senate seat. He’s the comedy writer who's been supplying all of Michele Bachmann’s comedy material. Hey, that crazy stuff doesn’t write itself!

She MUST have a professional comedy writer writing for her - no one could be that insane in real life, could they? Could they?

With love to Michele Bachmann: don't go changing! We love you just the way you are! (except for the elected-official part).

I kind of hate to do this but.... [insert generic ...

2009-05-06T09:12:00.000-04:00

I kind of hate to do this but....
[insert generic gay bashing slogan here] said
Proof that fivethirtyeight.com is slowly becoming irrelevant.
---------------------------

Actually the graph you posted to shows that 538.com is doing pretty well at the moment. Given the subject matter of the site, a ballooning of interest before and around the election is not at all surprising, and a subsequent drop is not surprising, but since then the site has settled to a number of visits better than September 08. Thats a pretty good figure I would imagine.

By the way, boys, we all know what your inevitable...

2009-05-06T09:00:00.000-04:00

By the way, boys, we all know what your inevitable resort to gay slurs really means. In the future, please get your kicks down at your local bus station washroom rather than here.They all just have really wide stances, honest.

I think Franken has the right idea about not making too much public fuss and letting the legal battle work itself out. He loses nothing by playing it strictly by the book, whereas any undue public carping will make him look like, well, Coleman.

Pawlenty may not run for a third term? I don't kno...

2009-05-06T08:55:00.000-04:00

Pawlenty may not run for a third term? I don't know if the state can survive the rest of his term. He has set us back decades with his hardline budget strangulation

Charles Goes along with the bad proofreading. See...

2009-05-06T07:26:00.000-04:00

Charles

Goes along with the bad proofreading. Seems like something Nate wouldn't want to have to do, for obvious reasons, something he's reluctant to hire somebody to do, and a generally unpleasant and thankless job.

The interesting band-aid solution is a do it yourself commenter blocker that some readers use, but it means that new visitors have to wade through whatever loads of unprocessed psychic crap happens to be here before they decide whom to block. And Nate doesn't promote the blocker.

Also, whoever might be blocking annoying commenters (on Nate's behalf) is taking on the karmic burden of thwarting their tortured attempts at communicating to an obviously hostile world of Obamatons, Pelosiraptors, Hairy Reedfish and the like.

On the one hand, I think that there's no reason the commenters on this site should use language that's significantly different in style than Nate himself. We're commenting on an article he wrote on a site he maintains.

On the other hand, no form of language in and of itself bothers me as long as it's in the service of a point of some sort. Ranting personal attacks, racist rhetoric and sexual insults are out of place, IMHO, but it's still Nate's call.