Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Part...

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2009-06-20T07:30:19.349-04:00

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2009-06-20T06:51:59.277-04:00

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Amen JSQ.Kick that fucker Linder OUT. What a wast...

2008-10-06T21:20:00.000-04:00

Amen JSQ.

Kick that fucker Linder OUT. What a waste of organic material.

Please sweet baby Jesus let Linder and Chambliss LOSE.

I'm a white professional 50 year old woman and I'm...

2008-10-06T20:37:00.000-04:00

I'm a white professional 50 year old woman and I'm proud that I voted early and voted for Barack Obama. And I'm very happy to hear of the early registration and turnout in Georgia. I would love to see Georgia surprise everyone by electing Obama. I'm sorry to say that many of my contemporaries have doubts about him. I fear that some are closet racists who don't want to admit it. But there are also many of us who do support him.

North Carolina will definitely go blue for Obama. ...

2008-10-06T20:33:00.000-04:00

North Carolina will definitely go blue for Obama. I think Virginia is likely, but I can't speak for the ground game there. If Georgia's turnout keeps the state close - or, amazingly, really does result in an Obama win - I wonder how many pundits will be walking back their critiques of Obama's strategy in the South.

If I had a nickel for every time I've heard/read some variation on "Obama is wasting his time in North Carolina," I could have bailed out Wachovia myself. And not once were those proclamations based on an evaluation of what was actually happening in the state, or the way that Obama's campaign was taking advantage of long-term and short-term trends that are moving the state toward a Democratic pick-up.

While it's not a done deal by any measure, I still feel like the Obama game plan in NC (and in his self-claimed "swing states" in general) should be studied as an example for how to run a real campaign, rather than letting the media run it for you.

Several things you might want to be aware of.Atlan...

2008-10-06T19:23:00.000-04:00

Several things you might want to be aware of.

Atlanta is not all of Georgia. 200 miles south in Lowndes County there are more than 9% more voters registered in the past month.

Valdosta, like many other smaller cities around the state, has a university branch of UGA. It has lots of students. And there are two high schools (look up TitleTown). Many registrations are coming from there, but that ain't all. We've got blacks and whites as old as 90 registering for the first time. People who never found anybody worth voting for since FDR are voting this time.

There are at least three GA House seats outside Atlanta ripe for the plucking, and they all have cheaper ad rates than in big cities:

GA-01 Bill Gillespie can replace Jack "flag pin" Kingston

GA-03 Stephen Camp can replace Lynn "uppity" Westmoreland

GA-07 Doug Heckman can beat John "Fair Tax" Linder

Come all ye DeKalb latte drinkers and Fulton Prius drivers and volunteer or donate to these races!

Meanwhile, if you think Bubba ain't affected by $4/gallon gas, when it's even available, you may want to think again.

Maybe it's time to stop viewing the South as a homogeneous block through red-colored glasses, and time to stop viewing all white people as unchangeable racists.

The times they are a-changin', and you may be in for a pleasant surprise. But why wait and be surprised? Come all ye Yankee safe staters, from New York to Oregon: get out your credit card and help paint the peach blue!

PS: I drive a Prius. My other car is a Dodge Ram 4x4.

Two interesting factors I don't know how to accoun...

2008-10-06T18:52:00.000-04:00

Two interesting factors I don't know how to account for in GA:

1 - Bob Barr - on the ballot, but significant?

2 - Gas Shortage - Not just high gas prices but gas shortages in the Atlanta area. As in, go to the pump, see a baggie over it. Wait in line when you find a place with gas.

I think this would work well for Obama and Martin, but I don't know for sure.

Doesn't Freak-Nick happen on election day this yea...

2008-10-06T18:35:00.000-04:00

Doesn't Freak-Nick happen on election day this year?

Nate, You have an incredibly optimistic view of ...

2008-10-06T18:03:00.000-04:00

Nate,

You have an incredibly optimistic view of black turnout. The data that people have given shows that the AA registered voters make up 25.6% at the end of october. That means in order to get to 30% of the registered voters, blacks would have to register 250,000 voters without a single white registering. The more whites register, the higher that number has to be. Also, where are you getting this 30/70 split of all the other voters. Is this from 2004 or are you just postulating. Lastly besides whites and blacks, by the end of october, all other registered ethnicities made up 11%. Anyways, you paint an incredibly positive picture. I don't see more than 250,000 black voters registering in six days.

If one more person mentions the Bradley effect, I ...

2008-10-06T17:56:00.000-04:00

If one more person mentions the Bradley effect, I think I might scream. Nate has posted again and again about how the BRADLEY EFFECT NO LONGER EXISTS IN ANY IMPORTANT WAY.

^^^^ HEY. Us blacks are just loud Jews (minusthe business savvy). We have suffered for centuries, we dont trust anybody, we have a nearly unnatural affinity for our mothers...AND WE WORRY LIKE CRAZY.

You're going to have to get used to it.

Every poll I see in a swing state I take away about 3-5 points. White turn out will be high for the ANTI-Obama ticket. I just know it.

But lets hope you are correct.

I can't find the specific numbers but this is the ...

2008-10-06T17:15:00.000-04:00

I can't find the specific numbers but this is the exact reason Louisiana was in play. It makes me sick that Obama has had no presence here, this state could have been tipped pretty easily. :(

A lot of people seem to be asking whether increase...

2008-10-06T14:47:00.000-04:00

A lot of people seem to be asking whether increased registration will actually lead to an equal increase in turnout percentage or number of votes. That should be pretty obvious. If you aren't going to vote, what did you register for? And newly registered voters tend to be apolitical, which is why they weren't registered in the first place. Already registered voters are likely to have an enthusiasm far larger than newly registered voters, and their turnout percentage is very likely to increase more than the overall percentage increase in registration.

If people are disgusted enough with the Republican...

2008-10-06T14:27:00.000-04:00

If people are disgusted enough with the Republican Party and the bailout that they give Bob Barr more than 5% of Georgia's vote, Obama will come close to carrying the state through his GOTV effort. The best gift of the night would be going to bed with GA too close to call.

I'm so glad to see this entry! I check this site ...

2008-10-06T14:06:00.000-04:00

I'm so glad to see this entry! I check this site every day, watching especially to see if there are any indication of what I think might be the "Georgia Surprise" coming our way. Perhaps as a volunteer here in Atlanta I have a skewed view of the whole state, but the response here in the city has been incredible. I was so impressed this weekend with the organization and mobilization for Final Weekend Registration, and everywhere we went we received affirmation. Now, to be a realist, I know there are several more rural communities outside the city that have some very vehemenant opponents to Obama, but I also know folks here (like my father-in-law) who have voted Republican their entire lives and intend to cast for Obama in this election. I know the campaign repositioned some paid staffers from GA not long ago, but the volunteer effort here is so energized I think the momentum continues progressing in Obama's direction here. I am holding out hope and belief that a Blue GA is possible!

Gallup - +8:summary"Looked at broadly, Obama's per...

2008-10-06T13:42:00.000-04:00

Gallup - +8:

summary

"Looked at broadly, Obama's percent of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 48% to 50% over the last ten days, and McCain's has been within an equally narrow range of 42% of 44% over the same time period. These results suggest that aside from normal sampling error, the underlying dynamics of the race have become quite stable, and underscore the degree to which there has been little meaningful change in the race in well over a week.

The election has entered its final month, with the two remaining major campaign events being Tuesday night's presidential debate in Nashville, and the final presidential debate on Oct. 15 at Hofstra University.

Early voting is now open in many states, meaning that for some voters, the election is already over. -- Frank Newport"

amen to that !!!

test

2008-10-06T13:31:00.000-04:00

test

We should fear that we don't live in a democracy a...

2008-10-06T13:30:00.000-04:00

We should fear that we don't live in a democracy any longer. The cyber security with current voting machines is in the bronze age and paid GOP computer hackers alter results going from polling stations to district offices which total the results. Also, GOP members in office are purging voters in VA, MO, and LA. Please see the videos and sites below, then call the Obama campaign to express your concern and voice your opinion (especially if you are a contributor like I am) and tell them you want something done about it.

Obama campaign number is 1-866-675-2008 and press option 6 to speak to a volunteer. They are answering the phone 7 days a week.

How the next election will be stolen:
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html

We need to take action:
http://www.verifiedvoting.org/

The voter purging in Virginia (and in general):
http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/voter_purges

It is our responsibility to take action. Call someone, write someone, pass this along, talk about it, etc. We can't just sit idle and read about these things that are happening in our country and be passive.

Here's the thing, about a month or so ago, I comme...

2008-10-06T13:26:00.000-04:00

Here's the thing, about a month or so ago, I commented on how nationally syndicated Urban radio host and urban radio stations were keeping African American and other Urban radio listeners (Hispanics, younger whites, etc) up on voter registration, voter surpression and GOTV. Many people (mostly non-minorities) pooh-poohed it. Well it's in states where most of the voting population is centralized in the large urban cities like Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and places in the South where if African Americans may be a large but still minority portion of the electorate, where having a larger turnout than ever before, could be a difference between Obama winning a state, or just losing a state by a smaller margin.

People should really not underestimate that.

Chi, Oh I wasn't saying that is what I would expec...

2008-10-06T13:24:00.000-04:00

Chi,

Oh I wasn't saying that is what I would expect McCain to do. But I think the point of no return is fast approaching and I think that going negative may even be a waste of time, and is going to build up a hold lot of Democratic resentment on the hill, so he will almost be stuck in a little caucus all of his own. (maybe he could get Lieberman to join him.)

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Part...

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Amen JSQ.Kick that fucker Linder OUT. What a wast...

I'm a white professional 50 year old woman and I'm...

North Carolina will definitely go blue for Obama. ...

Several things you might want to be aware of.Atlan...

Two interesting factors I don't know how to accoun...

Doesn't Freak-Nick happen on election day this yea...

Nate, You have an incredibly optimistic view of ...

If one more person mentions the Bradley effect, I ...

I can't find the specific numbers but this is the ...

A lot of people seem to be asking whether increase...

If people are disgusted enough with the Republican...

I'm so glad to see this entry! I check this site ...

Gallup - +8:summary"Looked at broadly, Obama's per...

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We should fear that we don't live in a democracy a...

Here's the thing, about a month or so ago, I comme...

Chi, Oh I wasn't saying that is what I would expec...

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