Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Illinois: Let the People Decide

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2009-10-02T05:23:45.358-04:00

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2009-08-28T02:48:16.467-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:21:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:22:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:22:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:19:00.000-05:00

Sorry...48.7%, not 49.7%.

2008-11-25T12:28:00.000-05:00

Sorry...48.7%, not 49.7%.

....especially considering how poorly Morganthaker...

2008-11-25T12:27:00.000-05:00

....especially considering how poorly Morganthaker did this year against Roskam, even with Obama's coat-tails --- Obama won DuPage County, and yet Morganthaler lost the 6th by 16 points!

Duckworth is tied most closely to Rahm Emmanuel an...

2008-11-25T12:25:00.000-05:00

Duckworth is tied most closely to Rahm Emmanuel and Dick Durbin (they got her to run and funded her primary campaign against Christine Cegelis).

The fact made above, that Duckworth got 49.7% of the vote in the ultra-conservative 6th district is a good point.

Blagoevich needs to appoint, whoever Obama tells h...

2008-11-25T07:53:00.000-05:00

Blagoevich needs to appoint, whoever Obama tells him to appoint, or he is going to jail. Now, that's Illinois politics. So, who does Obama want?

(*he brought...)

2008-11-25T01:08:00.000-05:00

(*he brought...)

1. ZWrite's definition of Jack Ryan's "suggestion"...

2008-11-25T01:07:00.000-05:00

1. ZWrite's definition of Jack Ryan's "suggestion" of "making love in a club" sounds like a pretty DuPage County/Lake County/downstate definition of the situation. It wasn't "suggested" that they "make love in a club," be brought her to swingers' bars, sex clubs, and dungeons, for the purpose of swinging and voyeurism.

2. Madigan's the strongest choice to win in 2010, hands-down, but she won't get the nod. She's already won statewide, she won't be hurt by association with Democratic Blago because she's the anti-Blago, and maybe she'll even go for governor if things get rough enough. Who knows.

Gotta agree. Abner Mikva would be an incredibly go...

2008-11-25T00:50:00.000-05:00

Gotta agree. Abner Mikva would be an incredibly good choice. Our former Congressman probably would have been appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court were it not for the Republicans in the Senate and dearth of appointments for Bill Clinton to make. Mikva served as one of the most independent and intelligent Congressmen in our nation's history. It would be incredibly fitting to give him two years in the U.S. Senate where he'll follow proudly in the path pioneered by the late Senators Paul Simon and Paul Douglas.

What a great idea!

Mule Rider/Dirty Harryhttp://www.google.com/trends...

2008-11-25T00:39:00.000-05:00

Mule Rider/Dirty Harry

http://www.google.com/trends?q=mule+rider%2C+nate+silver%2C+fivethirtyeight&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=1

Have a nice night.

Oh, and Beau Biden for Deleware, and Andrew Cuomo ...

2008-11-24T22:59:00.000-05:00

Oh, and Beau Biden for Deleware, and Andrew Cuomo or Eliot Spitzer for NY.

JJJ or Lisa Madigan for me. The rest aren't fit to...

2008-11-24T22:57:00.000-05:00

JJJ or Lisa Madigan for me. The rest aren't fit to fill Obama's vacated seat, especially Tammy Duckworth, who isn't fit to win ANY race.

I think Blago should pick Dan Seals, who lost a fi...

2008-11-24T22:36:00.000-05:00

I think Blago should pick Dan Seals, who lost a five-point race to Mark Kirk in IL-10. Seals is young, talented, and not beholden to the Combine. Plus, he hasn't publicly criticized the governor, which puts him in VERY small company in Illinois.

IN ILLINOIS, WE'VE MOVED PAST BLAGOMstt: "Blago w...

2008-11-24T20:38:00.000-05:00

IN ILLINOIS, WE'VE MOVED PAST BLAGO

Mstt: "Blago will be hard to bring down, especially if Madigan & Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn split the anti-Blago vote."

Wow, there's delusional for you. The "anti-Blago vote" is ALMOST EVERYONE. The pro-Blago is ALMOST NO ONE.

Blago has an approval rating of about 10 percent. He couldn't beat his mail carrier or the person who picks up his garbage. And he's accomplished nothing in his second term.

By the way, another reason to appoint a placeholder is that Republican Mark Kirk can beat a weak Dem and a vigorous campaign is needed to produce the best candidate (ex.--Obama).

Shalom,
ZWrite

ILLINOIS RESIDENT: I WANT TO MAKE MY CHOICENate S...

2008-11-24T20:23:00.000-05:00

ILLINOIS RESIDENT: I WANT TO MAKE MY CHOICE

Nate Silver and a blogger named Jake are 100 percent correct.

I've been writing columns in recent weeks about how undemocratic it would be appoint someone ambitious who would have an unfair advantage in a primary. Shame on those who want a political fix.

Illinois has an ANTIDEMOCRATIC TRADITION of Daddys fixing elections for their children. Bill Lipinski, John Stroger, and Emil Jones have won primaries and withdrew their names from the general election ballot in August at the last possible second while powerbrokers appointed Junior to be the nominee WITHOUT AN ELECTION.

When there was an election, look who we picked -- Barack Obama in a very strong field of seven or eight Dems. And the GOP picked someone very strong, Jack Ryan, although party leaders with CONTEMPT FOR DEMOCRACT forced him to withdraw due to the dumbest "scandal" of all time -- trying to avoid a divorce, Ryan suggested to his then wife that making love in a club might spice up their marriage (NOTHING happened; Judy Topinka is a moron).

AS AN AMERICAN, I WANT A DAMN ELECTION, NOT ANOTHER CORONATION.

And Jake is right that Emil Jones should not be the placeholder. I suggest someone who is as old as Jones -- Roland Burris or Jesse White perhaps -- if they pledge not to seek election.

Shalom,
ZWrite

And to say she is the only one who would easily wi...

2008-11-24T19:22:00.000-05:00

And to say she is the only one who would easily win in 2010 is as silly as saying any Dem would easily win - the truth is somewhere in between.

Don't think so. You think anybody south of I-55 in a place not called East St. Louis is gonna vote for Jackson? Or Gutierrez, for that matter? I hate to break it down on racial lines, but that's the way it is. We're not talking about an even-headed, pragmatic centrist like Obama (who had the double fortune of taking on a nutbag like Alan Keyes), or even a brilliant and decisive leader like Carol Mosley Braun was seen to be. Jackson, I believe, is such a leader, but he carries with him his father's legacy, which is great for where he lives but not so good the closer he'd get to Kentucky. Gutierrez doesn't have the daddy problem, but he's the fire-breathing liberal that Robert Wexler fancies himself as -- and while I agreed with his support for the Day Without Immigrants protest, don't think that wouldn't come back to haunt him in a Senate race, especially with downstate voters.

Now, as far as saying the truth is somewhere in between any Democrat winning handily or that Schakowsky is the only one who could win, I heartily disagree (and please remember, I'm speaking only of those who have been mentioned as possible successors). The Illinois GOP is in shambles. Who in the Republican Party is going to take on Schakowsky and win? Frank Watson has little name recognition outside of Springfield and is probably worse-known than Schakowsky (for better or for worse); if she became Senator, she'd have the leg up. Mark Kirk could woo some of the conservative Democrats around Chicago against a liberal like Schakowsky, but he's not nearly conservative enough for the downstate folk. Rosemary Mulligan would make for an interesting matchup, but like Watson, she suffers from a lack of name recognition outside her district.

Look, there is a reason the Illinois GOP bailed on Jack Ryan four years ago (ensuring Obama's win) and inserted an idiot like Alan Keyes: They have no idea what they're doing. Ryan may have been able to give Obama a run for his money; unfortunately, we'll never know one way or the other. But the downstate conservative faction bailed because Ryan liked to get dirty with his ex-wife while they were still married. They aren't going to give a smart, pragmatic, well-spoken white lady any kind of trouble in two years. They could, however, exploit the saddening racial divide that still exists in this state. I'm not saying Jackson or Gutierrez couldn't win; I am saying that neither is as safe a bet. And so far as Jackson is concerned, it makes little sense for him to give up his spot in the House, since he can stay there forever if he wants, or use it as a springboard to da Mare's office two seconds after Daley announces his retirement.

If he values his career, Blagojevich won't appoint...

2008-11-24T19:05:00.000-05:00

If he values his career, Blagojevich won't appoint himself. Governors who appoint themselves to the Senate generally lose reelection, and Blagojevich's ethical problems & unpopularity won't help.

Although he hates her guts, Blagojevich might appoint Madigan to keep her from challenging him in the 2010 gubernatorial primary-if she becomes a Senator, Madigan will likely pass on the gubernatorial primary, choosing an easy reelection over a difficult primary-despite his unpopularity, Blago will be hard to bring down, especially if Madigan & Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn split the anti-Blago vote.

Ed, if you think Rod gives two whits what Obama th...

2008-11-24T18:54:00.000-05:00

Ed, if you think Rod gives two whits what Obama thinks of him, you don't know how Rod works. He could not care what the Dems think of him nationally, either. The only reason he'd listen to Obama is if he's angling to be pardoned in 7 and 1/2 years, after his near inevitable conviction in the next phase of the Rezko investigation.

BTW, the biggest single reason the Rezko mess happened? Because dear Blago thought it would be great to be able take $50,000 donations from individuals to build up a state war chest to help him run for President, and help the folks giving him that cash any way he could. Rezko was the middleman on that and a bunch of other deals. Even by Al Capone standards, they were blatant about the quid pro quo. Fortunately for us all, Obama wasn't considered important enough by Rezko to get completely slimed by him, and Blago didn't want any competition for his big donors.

For those unfamiliar with Illinois politics, this ...

2008-11-24T18:00:00.000-05:00

For those unfamiliar with Illinois politics, this decision comes down to two things.

1) What is best politically for Blago?

2) See number 1.

If you think Hot Rod is going to anything other than what Obama tells him to do yer nuts. That's not how it works.

How about Bill Ayers just to see heads AND balls e...

2008-11-24T17:34:00.000-05:00

How about Bill Ayers just to see heads AND balls explode?

wv = coerip. Hardly knew ya.

I still think Blagojevich appoints himself as the ...

2008-11-24T17:24:00.000-05:00

I still think Blagojevich appoints himself as the placeholder - it's the only way he makes it back to Washington - he ends up with better lobbying $$$.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Illinois: Let the People Decide

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Sorry...48.7%, not 49.7%.

....especially considering how poorly Morganthaker...

Duckworth is tied most closely to Rahm Emmanuel an...

Blagoevich needs to appoint, whoever Obama tells h...

(*he brought...)

1. ZWrite's definition of Jack Ryan's "suggestion"...

Gotta agree. Abner Mikva would be an incredibly go...

Mule Rider/Dirty Harryhttp://www.google.com/trends...

Oh, and Beau Biden for Deleware, and Andrew Cuomo ...

JJJ or Lisa Madigan for me. The rest aren't fit to...

I think Blago should pick Dan Seals, who lost a fi...

IN ILLINOIS, WE'VE MOVED PAST BLAGOMstt: "Blago w...

ILLINOIS RESIDENT: I WANT TO MAKE MY CHOICENate S...

And to say she is the only one who would easily wi...

If he values his career, Blagojevich won't appoint...

Ed, if you think Rod gives two whits what Obama th...

For those unfamiliar with Illinois politics, this ...

How about Bill Ayers just to see heads AND balls e...

I still think Blagojevich appoints himself as the ...

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