Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Florida

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2009-01-18T02:27:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T02:02:00.000-05:00

So a troll is someone who visits this "neutral" po...

2008-10-14T15:14:00.000-04:00

So a troll is someone who visits this "neutral" polling website and doesn't rave over Obama's massive lead and show rage over a cherry picked campaign sign.

Just wondering what neutral and troll means on this website. I got it now.

Statistically bad poll based on the number of resp...

2008-10-14T14:00:00.000-04:00

Statistically bad poll based on the number of respondents, but: I went to a Women for Obama rally in West Palm Beach yesterday and as I was leaving, my housekeeper, who is Chilean/American, told me she was for Obama and so were all of her family and friends. These are new citizens, of Hispanic birth, and they love Obama. I think the Republican trend for Hispanics may be waning.

Michael,It's an old article from January. It was r...

2008-10-14T13:36:00.000-04:00

Michael,

It's an old article from January. It was referring to the presidential primary election. From the article:

"State law requires counties to switch to paper ballots by July 1, 2008, but each county is also required to keep using touch screens for disabled voters."

Here in Florida we have a crazy upside down mix. ...

2008-10-14T13:28:00.000-04:00

Here in Florida we have a crazy upside down mix. Here in Miami it's even stranger. We have a HUGE hispanic population but it's CUban and has historically voted for whichever party is MORE unreasonable on CUba policy (BIG MCCAIN!!!) Yet the Cuban population is now much younger, second and third generation adn has grown up in an an area of the state that is incredibly diverse (YAY Obama!!!!)
I got a feeling that this is going to go to Obama by less than 1%. The older jewish folks are coming around and the younger Hispanics are not going to vote in McCain. And speaking for South FLa (or as we call it New York SOuth) Obama has a massive pressence and ground game down here

The original post says, "Florida will probably be ...

2008-10-14T13:22:00.000-04:00

The original post says, "Florida will probably be called early enough to be considered the determinative state on Election Night."

I'd love to see a "heat map" of this. Based on closing times in various states, and margins in those states, which state will put Obama (or, unlikely, McCain) over the top, chronologically? What time will we know for sure who the next President is?

If you could do it like the "tipping point" map, that would be awesome.

David, this is the first sentence of the article y...

2008-10-14T13:17:00.000-04:00

David, this is the first sentence of the article you linked:

"The state plans to replace the system with paper ballots, but not until after this election."

Not until after which election?

I haven't read everyone's comments yet (working he...

2008-10-14T11:37:00.000-04:00

I haven't read everyone's comments yet (working hehe), and not sure if this was already discussed, but the Hispanic population tends to be prejudiced as well, especially against AA. If this was brought up then, never mind, if not, this is another reason why Cubans, Venezuelans etc may vote Republican. I also know "a few" that are leaning Repub just because Obama is black, forget what he said he stands for...I am not sure why we dont' have a high youth vote, with UF, FSU, UCF and UM I would have thought we would be ok. As for same sex house holds, yes, with the theme parks it is pretty standard to see same sex relationships as it is to see interracial...kinda everywhere that in theory shouldn't make it a big deal. I agree that FL will be one to watch, but it should tip blue...

The thing I continually wonder is the outcry on AC...

2008-10-14T11:25:00.000-04:00

The thing I continually wonder is the outcry on ACORN, the most it does is inflate the numbers for legit registered voters. Where is the outcry about the highly suspicious McCain campaign mailings to dems in OH and FL????

Also, of far greater concern is the unpreparedness of states to handle voter turnout. I have seen reference to many of the swing states being completely unprepared should any glitch happen, and in some cases even if things go smoothly to handle the possible numbers that will turn out. To me, that is a far greater concern than anything.

linkFlorida is requiring the use of paper ballots ...

2008-10-14T10:53:00.000-04:00

link

Florida is requiring the use of paper ballots by all counties as of July of this year, so if any voting shenanigans occur, at least there will be a paper trail. Here in Hillsborough County (Tampa), they're using an optical scan system, which is easy enough to recount by hand.

I live in SW FLA, Sarasota to be exact. My wife a...

2008-10-14T10:49:00.000-04:00

I live in SW FLA, Sarasota to be exact. My wife and I are voting for That One because we are bleeding heart liberals. We always say that we are pilgrims in an unholy land here in Sarasota (rich, white and republican).

Just to comment a little on Nate's comments about the Cuban vote. Yes they are normally conservative and Republican. My next door neighbor is dating a Cuban woman that escaped Castro's regime on a raft. Her entire family are now citizens and they are overwhelmingly voting for Obama. These people are all hard working folks and they have been hammered economically here in FLA. And they blame Bush/Johnny Mac for their problems.

I think we're understating the impact of the econo...

2008-10-14T09:53:00.000-04:00

I think we're understating the impact of the economic crisis on Florida. It had one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, and is now looking at one of the most severe corrections. There are lots of retired people on fixed incomes who are now looking at serious losses in wealth because of the housing collapse. The cultural stuff might be important, but the economy is going to be the overriding concern in Florida. The candidate that seems to be more on the side of the homeowner will win - and right now, with his refundable tax rebates for people of low or median income, Obama is winning the pocketbook voter.

new thread

2008-10-14T09:40:00.000-04:00

new thread

Be kind to our migratory seniors. Every year we l...

2008-10-14T09:29:00.000-04:00

Be kind to our migratory seniors. Every year we look for their return to signal the start of winter.

ic170 said... Look if FLA goes blue I promise n...

2008-10-14T09:19:00.000-04:00

ic170 said...

Look if FLA goes blue I promise never again to clutch the wheel white knuckled and curse and spit at elderly folks with FL plates as they drift all over I-95 in NY/NJ enroute to destinations south for winter!

--

And I'll stop saying "Happiness is seeing a Canadian headed north with a New Yorker under each arm." :)

SEAN:I would one very important factor to your lis...

2008-10-14T09:18:00.000-04:00

SEAN:

I would one very important factor to your list:

- Impact of the Real Estate Crisis (5 states have felt it the most:
CA, NA, FL, AZ and MI).

- In FL prices are down about 30% and due to speculators, foreclosures are huge!

- THIS has put pressure on EVERYBODY's home values down there and their net worth as a result.

- People will NOT forget this when they vote on NOV 4th and governing party (both at the FED and LOCAL level) are the Republicans for Floridians.

I believe this will easily bring Obama at least 5% extra voters, vs 2004!

Biting the hand that feeds you:http://online.wsj.c...

2008-10-14T09:13:00.000-04:00

Biting the hand that feeds you:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122393943185530625.html

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said... When things were ca...

2008-10-14T09:09:00.000-04:00

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said...
When things were calmer the media kept asking "why isn't Obama further ahead?" then the minute he was further ahead they were all "is Bradley effect real?", "Voter registration fraud"...

http://www.google.com/trends?q=TROOPERGATE%2C+ACORN&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2008-10&sort=1

think it's the economy

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said...
When things were calmer the media kept asking "why isn't Obama further ahead?" then the minute he was further ahead they were all "is Bradley effect real?", "Voter registration fraud"...

http://www.google.com/trends?q=ACORN%2C+troopergate%2C+dow&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2008-10&sort=1

Katy said..."old people will not vote for Obama fo...

2008-10-14T09:08:00.000-04:00

Katy said...

"old people will not vote for Obama for mostly racist reasons."

Polls of south Florida show the contrary. Boca / Miami is huge for Obama.

Charles Crook said... If an overwhelming Dem victo...

2008-10-14T09:07:00.000-04:00

Charles Crook said...
If an overwhelming Dem victory causes the Rep party to shed the fascist / evangelical / fundamentalist fringe, that's a positive for the country.

I agree, I'm looking forward to the day when I can consider a Republican candidate to be a legitimate choice in an election again.

Charles Crook said... If an overwhelming Dem victo...

2008-10-14T09:01:00.000-04:00

Charles Crook said...
If an overwhelming Dem victory causes the Rep party to shed the fascist / evangelical / fundamentalist fringe, that's a positive for the country.

Not much left after that

so there are more white negroes nowhot damn.

2008-10-14T08:57:00.000-04:00

so there are more white negroes now

hot damn.

Whites more comfortable voting for blacksLink

2008-10-14T08:55:00.000-04:00

Whites more comfortable voting for blacks

Link

Factors in purple have ambiguous effects...old peo...

2008-10-14T08:54:00.000-04:00

Factors in purple have ambiguous effects...old people will not vote for Obama for mostly racist reasons. So I'd say that factor is in McCain's favor sadly.