Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama is the New...

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2009-10-08T07:36:43.825-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:06:34.721-04:00

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2009-03-11T06:03:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T06:03:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T01:42:00.000-05:00

Then the electorate thinks you are a problem and t...

2008-07-11T21:49:00.000-04:00

Then the electorate thinks you are a problem and they vote against you.

This is From: Cafe, Cafe, Election CentralThe Prob...

2008-07-11T21:36:00.000-04:00

This is From: Cafe, Cafe, Election Central
The Problem with Obama
By Kane - July 11, 2008, 5:38PM

And the perfect compliment to Nate's list:

Obama is too black
Obama is too white
Obama's lack of Washington experience problem
Obama's Hispanic problem
Obama's Asian problem
Obama's Jewish problem
Obama's Catholic problem
Obama's Muslim problem
Obama's Black voter problem
Obama's White voter problem
Obama's reliance on young people problem
Obama's elderly problem
Obama's women problem
Obama's White elderly women voter problem
Obama's white collar voter problem
Obama's blue collar voter problem
Obama's Reverend Wright problem
Obama's problem with not being vetted
Obama's Muslim perception problem
Obama's elitist perception problem
Obama's Big State problem
Obama's problem with the Right
Obama's problem with the Left
Obama's Hillary Clinton problem
Obama's Bill Clinton problem
Obama's Ronald Reagan problem
Obama's Jesse Jackson problem
Obama's Michelle Obama problem
Obama's bowling problem
Obama's lapel pin problem
Obama's problem with Hillary voters
Obama's Pledge of Allegiance problem
Obama's NAFTA problem
Obama's FISA problem
Obama's public financing problem
Obama's Populist message problem
Obama's moving to the center problem
Obama's problem with speaking against Iraq invasion Obama's problem with the paranormal
Obama's 50 State problem
Obama's gun problem
Obama's abortion problem
Obama's Social Security problem
Obama's Foreign policy problem
Obama's Healthcare problem
Obama's flip-flop problem
Obama's surrogate problem
Obama's Appalachian problem
Obama's Isreal problem
Obama's Pakistan problem
Obama's Iran problem
Obama's Cuba problem
Obama's Florida problem
Obama's popularity problem
Obama's problem with living abroad
Obama's problem with not traveling abroad
Obama's aloofness problem
Obama's patriotism problem
Obama's endorsement problem
Obama's Union problem
Obama's Business problem
Obama's working class problem
Obama's problem with FOX News
Obama's problem with Rush Limbaugh
Obama's Internet whisper problem
Obama's small donor problem
Obama's big donor problem
Obama's Liberal voting record problem
Obama's stadium convention problem
Obama's problem with leading McCain in the polls
Obama's Bubba Gap problem
Obama's arugula problem
Obama's orange juice problem
Obama's fundraising problem
Obama's problem with problems

I've been following elections for a long time, and never have I seen a candidate saddled with so many perceived problems. While every candidate is sure to run into their share of problems during a long campaign, much of these so called problems have to do with the 24hour news culture, where they have raised every issue as a potential problem for Obama. At some point one must ask the question of why? I appologize for the long list, but we all know that it's only a partial list."

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

Mohandas Gandhi

ZOMG you forgot the doomed Catholic candidate from...

2008-07-11T21:08:00.000-04:00

ZOMG you forgot the doomed Catholic candidate from 1928, AL SMITH

Though actually, every other article about Obama hosted on RealClearPolitics seems to mention Al Smith.

Clearly Obama is the OLD Mitt Romney (served 2012-...

2008-07-11T18:03:00.000-04:00

Clearly Obama is the OLD Mitt Romney (served 2012-2020). Why do you all have such an anti-future president bias?

You forgot William Jennings Bryan.

2008-07-11T17:00:00.001-04:00

You forgot William Jennings Bryan.

Don't forget William Jennings Bryan.http://tpmelec...

2008-07-11T17:00:00.000-04:00

Don't forget William Jennings Bryan.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/mccain_compares_obama_to_willi.php

How about Andrew Jackson?http://iiipublishing.blog...

2008-07-11T15:57:00.001-04:00

How about Andrew Jackson?

http://iiipublishing.blogspot.com/2008/01/barack-obama-and-andrew-jackson.html

How about Andrew Jackson?http://iiipublishing.blog...

2008-07-11T15:57:00.000-04:00

How about Andrew Jackson?

http://iiipublishing.blogspot.com/2008/01/barack-obama-and-andrew-jackson.html

Anon @ 11:17.Not to quibble but isn't it 40 years?...

2008-07-11T15:56:00.000-04:00

Anon @ 11:17.

Not to quibble but isn't it 40 years? Since Nixon there has only been Clinton and Carter, and Nixon was elected in 1968.

32 years ago Carter was elected, but there was 8 years of Republicans before then.

Good post, Nate.

2008-07-11T15:21:00.000-04:00

Good post, Nate.

Why stop there? Besides FDR and Lincoln (as said ...

2008-07-11T15:20:00.000-04:00

Why stop there? Besides FDR and Lincoln (as said above), he's also been compared to Wendell Wilkie.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/
conservatives_missing_the_mark.html

So that takes us back all the way to the election of 1940, with Obama being compared to every major presidential candidate in the last 70 years. Unfortunately, I can't find any reference to Obama being the next "Alf Landon", so the game ends there.

That's a relief anyways, considering Landon only received 8 electoral votes.

The easiest one not listed is Eugene McCarthy. For...

2008-07-11T15:07:00.000-04:00

The easiest one not listed is Eugene McCarthy. For instance, http://gitell.wordpress.com/category/eugene-mccarthy/ but also many others.

Well, that got everybody going! Yes, it was my op...

2008-07-11T14:51:00.000-04:00

Well, that got everybody going! Yes, it was my opinion. First let me say, that if MCCAIN'S numbers increase inthe red states, I believe he will win the election. Right now MCCAIN and OBAMA are tied in Virginia and Indiana. OBAMA may be up in Ohio and Colorado. If MCCAIN wins all four states he wins POTUS. I think with 274 EV.

Again, this is my interpretation of what is going on. The election is still early, the DEms are energized and organized, and in almost every poll commands a double digit party affiliation.

Yet, MCCAIN is only 2 points behind OBAMA in the latest Rasmussen Poll. I have no facts, and not everything can be backed up by numbers. This is an election, and people vote with their feelings not with numbers.

Many people will go into the voting booth in November and vote for Obama because they are true blue democrats, and others will go into the booths true blue democrats and vote for MCCAIN because when it is all said and done they do not know who OBAMA is and what he stands for.

Remember, in 2000 Gore was the sitting Vice-President and at the end, the undecides swung toward the known.

In 1980, it went the other way, but Reagan was the two-term Governor of the largest State in America and had run for President before, taking the sitting President of the US to the very end. He was known and the country was in terrible shape, much worse than it is today!!!

Again, don't get angry when I post this, I am a true Democrat,but I have doubts now about what is going on in his campaign.

First, I can't beleive he changed his mind on public financing and FISA. Not to mention his horrific explanation about Gun Control. Although the MSM as somebody stated in their response states he is only going toward the center, I think peole are beginning to question what he really believes and begin to have doubts about his run for POTUS.

Furthermore, after all of the hoopla about the statement made by Phil Gramm, OBAMA has still shifted position on almost every issue he was for during the primary season, little more that three months ago and now is slowly shifting positions on Iraq.

This is what the people in the center will remember. The people who demand gun rights will not beleive him anyway and probably will work harder to defeat him because they really don't trust him now. The people who voted for OBAMA because they wanted out of Iraq are probably furious and may stay home. Ditto for FISA and Public Financing.

Too much of OBAMA'S support comes from the very young. Ask yourself this, How many ex-President's depended onthe 18-25 age group to become President?

The answer:

I think Peter Kent is funny. The republicans are s...

2008-07-11T14:34:00.000-04:00

I think Peter Kent is funny. The republicans are saying "Were winning the War, were winning the war" and the general public has tuned out. You lie to people about something for long enough, they stop listening even if you start telling the truth. Kind of ironic.

Obama is the next Vaclav Havel.

2008-07-11T14:23:00.000-04:00

Obama is the next Vaclav Havel.

You have a lot of opinions, to what do you owe thi...

2008-07-11T14:15:00.000-04:00

You have a lot of opinions, to what do you owe this opinion? Why will McCain win a state if Obama is up by 1-2 points. Why do people not like Obama, his favorability poll numbers consistently come in better than McCain. Why should Obama be ahead by 10? Says who? The MSM?

I'm not saying your opinions are wrong. You may very well be right. But you have to show some evidence to support your conclusions, otherwise its just a feeling, and that aint worth much.

Anonymous @ 12:55 said "I have a bad feeling that ...

2008-07-11T14:14:00.000-04:00

Anonymous @ 12:55 said "I have a bad feeling that MCCAIN might actually have that built in extra 3-4 points that is not now showing up in polls."

Give McCain an extra 3.5 points on top of every projection that Nate has currently, and the EVs split 284-264 Obama. But I think that's pessimistic from Obama's point of view. I also think the "hidden" McCain support tends much more to be in redder states, which helps him not at all with the EC.

Surely, Karl Marx needs to be listed.Great concept...

2008-07-11T14:11:00.000-04:00

Surely, Karl Marx needs to be listed.

Great concept.

Everyone has an opinion and none of them are worth...

2008-07-11T14:01:00.000-04:00

Everyone has an opinion and none of them are worth discussing. We should avoid opinion. Let the Pundits in the MSM have their say. They have to sell advertising. We don't. Stick to facts, we'll be better off.

I noticed during the primary election that the Gal...

2008-07-11T13:55:00.000-04:00

I noticed during the primary election that the Gallup and Rasmussen Poll often polled the opposite of each other. The closer Gallup the farther away Rasmussen and vice versa. It is now beginning to go back to that daily occurrence.

Also, observing OBAMA rise during the weekend and come down on weekday. More DEM's at home on weekend.

State Polls would be helpful. I've said this before, if MCCAIN is within 1 or 2 points in any state right before the election he will win that state.

OBAMA seems to be struggling attracting the voters. All things being considered, he should be up by 10 points. He never made it and I don't know why, other than people get bad vibes from the dude.

I'm not sure Nate is capturing this in his numbers, I don't think bad vibes can be captured quanatatively. There are a lot of undecided voters and swing voters and I am afraid when they go into the booth on November 4, they are going to vote for the tried and true, not the inexperienced and untested.

The RAsmussen Tracking Poll has consistently given Obama a 4 to 5 point lead for almost a month. This is the first time it has appraoched 2 points. I have a bad feeling that MCCAIN might actually have that built in extra 3-4 points that is not now showing up in polls. This is my gut feeling of course.

I look back at the 2000 election and Bush was ahead by 2 or 3 on election day, but Gore actually ended up with the winning margain. I can only assume they populace went with the tried and true, not the unknown.

We should stay tuned in this election because I am afraid it will get even tighter as the election gets closer.